MARKET OVERVIEW. June 22, 2004 Exploiting Open Source In Europe. by Richard Peynot. Helping Business Thrive On Technology Change

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1 June 22, 2004 Exploiting Open Source In Europe by Richard Peynot MARKET OVERVIEW Helping Business Thrive On Technology Change

2 MARKE T OVER VIEW Includes Forrester user interview data June 22, 2004 Exploiting Open Source In Europe Comparing Europe s Leading Open Source Service Providers This is the first document in the Open Source Service Market In Europe series. by Richard Peynot with David Metcalfe and Manuel Ángel Méndez EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The European open source market grew significantly during the past two years, but concerns about service capabilities mainly maintenance and support may blight open source adoption. The market will grow only if specific open source products, such as Linux, JBoss, Eclipse, or Tomcat, become a technology standard. Forrester s comparison of 17 Europe-based IT service providers displays the immature and incomplete range of open source services offerings available in the European market. Firms must refine their vendor selection criteria to benefit from lower-cost open source solutions. TABLE OF CONTENTS European Firms Adopt Open Source Despite Support Fears European Companies Adopt Open Source Software European Firms Fear Open Source Maintenance Risks The Open Source Market In Europe: Complex And Immature Europe s Open Source Service Providers Fall Into Four Segments Evaluating Europe s Open Source Service Providers Europe s Open Source Services Firms Assessed RECOMMENDATIONS Define Your Open Source Strategy WHAT IT MEANS Market Consolidation Will Help Clients ALTERNATIVE VIEW 13 Open Source Needs To Beat The Commercial Software Fightback 15 Supplemental Material NOTES & RESOURCES Forrester interviewed 20 vendors, from major service providers, such as IBM, Capgemini, and Atos Origin, to specialized vendors, such as Open Wide, Red Hat, and IDEALX. Forrester also interviewed 35 user companies in different European countries and across a variety of industries. Related Research Documents Evaluating The Health Of Open Source Software April 23, 2004, Tech Choices Mastering The Open Source Adoption Funnel April 13, 2004, Best Practices The Costs And Risks Of Open Source April 12, 2004, Best Practices Open Source Application Servers April 1, 2004, Trends Open Source Moves Into The Mainstream March 16, 2004, Trends Your Open Source Strategy September 23, 2003, Report 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Oval Program, Forrester Wave, WholeView 2, Technographics, and TechRankings are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. Forrester clients may make one attributed copy or slide of each figure contained herein. Additional reproduction is strictly prohibited. For additional reproduction rights and usage information, go to Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. To purchase reprints of this document, please reprints@forrester.com.

3 2 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe EUROPEAN FIRMS ADOPT OPEN SOURCE DESPITE SUPPORT FEARS Two years ago, open source software was still in its infancy in Europe. Companies were only testing and evaluating open source-based solutions. In the past two years, companies have deployed open source solutions even in mission-critical environments. Most European firms we surveyed are satisfied with their open source experience and plan to increase their open source investments. However, fears over commercial viability, technical support, and long-term maintenance slow adoption. European Companies Adopt Open Source Software To understand the state of open source adoption in Europe, Forrester surveyed 35 large firms in different European countries and across a variety of industries from airlines to financial services. We heard from these IT decision-makers that: Open source has penetrated the enterprise. Open source products like the Linux operating system, the JBoss application server, or the MySQL database are no longer marginal. More than a third of the firms we spoke with run open source solutions (see Figure 1-1). Forty-three percent of our interviewees are piloting or considering open source for enterprise projects. Our Web infrastructure is supported on Apache and Tomcat, and we will soon replace WebSphere with JBoss. All these initiatives will be part of the open source software positioning paper we are now putting together. (Financial services company) Open source software is completely embedded within our packaged applications, so we are actively using it, but, sometimes, we don t even know it. (Airline) Cost reduction drives open source adoption. Opportunities for cost savings constitute the main catalyst for selecting open source solutions: 51% of interviewees mention the lower acquisition costs and 60% highlight the total cost of ownership as their primary drivers for open source adoption (see Figure 1-2). Open source s flexibility in terms of access to the code and a wider choice of hardware is a secondlevel driver. After implementing open source software in our messaging system, we achieved an immediate bottom line saving of more than 0.5 million. Cost reduction is the primary driver for us by far. (Financial services company) June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

4 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 3 Figure 1 European Firms Embrace The Open Source Value Proposition At what stage are you in the implementation of open source software? Rollout under way or upgrading 9% No plans Piloting or 17% considering 43% Completed rollout 31% Which categories of open source software do you currently use? 69% 57% 49% 1-2 What benefits do you expect from using open source software? Lower TCO Lower acquisition costs Modifiable code More software choice Better quality More hardware choice 23% 20% 37% (multiple responses accepted) 51% 49% 60% 23% 14% 11% 9% 1-4 Web infrastructure Development tools Operating systems Security Databases Integration software Which other categories of open source software will you use in 2005? 29% 26% (multiple responses accepted) 20% 14% 14% 14% 11% Business applications 31% Databases Integration software Operating systems Business Development Security applications tools (multiple responses accepted) Web infrastructure Don t know 1-5 When will you use open source software in mission-critical environments? Don t know 14% 26% 29% 40% (multiple responses accepted) 1-6 How much will your firm spend on open source software and services in 2004? 200K to 500K 14% 50K to 200K 20% More than 500K 14% Don t know 29% Nothing 23% Source: Forrester Research, Inc. 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

5 4 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe Infrastructure dominates open source usage plans. Companies select open source primarily for IT infrastructure. According to our survey, 69% use open source solutions for Web infrastructure, 57% for application servers and development tools, and 49% for operating systems (see Figure 1-3). From 2005 on, companies plan to adopt databases and integration middleware, while business applications and security tools are considered less mature (see Figure 1-4). You ll find large amounts of open source software in our application server and Web platform, but not that much in desktop applications. It is its openness and flexibility that makes it attractive to us. (Financial services company). Our usage is mostly around infrastructure and development, and this is growing very fast. We are at the point where we need to set up a clear strategy for open source software usage moving forward. (Financial services company) Open source reaches mission-critical environments. Most companies don t hesitate to implement open source solutions in mission-critical environments. For example, 26% have already implemented open source in a mission-critical system, and a whopping 43% plan to follow suit in the next two years (see Figure 1-5). Linux and Web server software top the list of open source solutions in such environments. My job now is to convince the management team to get into mission-critical environments with open source software. It won t happen this year, but we definitely have to do something in (Logistics company). Companies will accelerate open source solution deployment. Spending on open source is relatively low: Our interviewees indicate that very few projects involve spending more than 500,000 on open source software (see Figure 1-6). But 58% of companies plan to significantly increase their open source investments. Spending will increase substantially by more than 30% next year. We are doing a data center consolidation project in Hong Kong, and this could seriously strengthen our commitment to open source software. (Financial services company). Our spending [on open source] will increase next year, and usage will become more popular. Lower overall costs will help with this, as budgets are flat and open source helps us be creative in how we stay on target. (Telecom company) June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

6 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 5 European Firms Fear Open Source Maintenance Risks Despite their growing love affair with low-cost open source software, European IT departments also see the drawbacks. Our 35 interviewees told us that: Maintenance fears blight open source strategies. A significant 69% of IT buyers perceive the lack of technical support to be the main barrier to open source adoption; this is closely followed by the 51% who point to maintenance costs (see Figure 2-1). Interviewees commonly suggest that uncertainty about the maintenance of their open solutions may affect their strategy or at least slow down adoption. The top management team always wants to have somebody they can make liable if something goes wrong; they always want to sue someone. The trouble is, they can t do this with open source software. (Logistics company). The level of accountability is not yet clear. Who is supporting this software? Who do I get on the phone with if I have a problem? Maybe this won t be an issue when the market matures in four to five years, but it is for us now. (Insurance company) Vendors win business with open source experience. When selecting service providers, IT departments emphasize a service provider s effective open source experience, maintenance capabilities, and development capabilities (see Figure 2-2). This corroborates their need for external assistance. Management always wants to work with IBM. But we need a partner with expertise and local support for our main German market. (Logistics company) You can t get into mission-critical environments with a vendor that doesn t have a solid track record. We want to hear names, past experience, clients they worked with, individuals. And, of course, they have to be experts. (Insurance company) Open source deployments require outside expertise. According to our interviews, just 37% of firms rely exclusively on in-house expertise to develop and integrate open source software (see Figure 2-3). Fifty-one percent of companies request serviceprovider assistance for the development and integration of open source applications, while 58% request external help for maintenance (see Figure 2-4). Our IT department is very large, and we ve built our own in-house Linux platform. We do the testing and validation, but we signed a contract with Red Hat for the integration. (Financial services company) 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

7 6 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe Figure 2 European Firms Expect Maintenance Capabilities From Vendors 2-1 What challenges or risks do you face when using open source software? Lack of technical support Unexpected costs for maintenance Product immaturity Security issues Lack of internal skills Unexpected costs for customization Lack of applications Lack of product viability 17% 26% 34% 31% 43% 46% 51% 69% (multiple responses accepted) 2-2 What are your criteria when selecting a service provider for open source software support? Effective experience and background Maintenance capabilities 54% 74% Technical expertise 46% Development capabilities 37% Open source software coverage Size 23% 23% (multiple responses accepted) 2-3 How do you develop and integrate open source applications? Using external providers 17% Don t know 9% N/A 3% In-house 37% Both in-house and with external providers 34% 2-4 How do you maintain open source software applications? Don t know 9% Using external providers 9% In-house 31% N/A 3% Both in-house and with external providers 49% Source: Forrester Research, Inc. June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

8 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 7 THE OPEN SOURCE MARKET IN EUROPE: COMPLEX AND IMMATURE The open source services market has grown differently in each European country, creating a complex market. On the supply side, Europe s open source services market is: Immature, not highly structured. Open source startups born in the past five years remain very small; the exception is France, where a few have reached a more significant size, such as Open Wide and Linagora. Global players like IBM and Capgemini have launched open source offerings only recently, and national players like Morse and PinkRoccade have recently joined the competition. The process of consolidation has not yet begun. Driven by opportunities, not value propositions. Most vendors respond to client requests with a technical solution: Specialized and regional vendors base their marketing primarily on technical expertise and service capabilities. As customers opt for open source for cost saving reasons, vendors need to prove their ability to deliver, rather than the added value of the business. Only IBM has created a valueoriented proposition. Focused on infrastructure, not business apps. Vendors don t promote open source business applications, such as ERP, CRM, business intelligence, or SCM, because of the lack of maturity of these products. Rather, they support and deploy more mature infrastructure products, such as the Linux operating system and the Java-based Tomcat server that runs servlets and Java server pages (JSPs). Restricted to a few countries, not Pan-European. Even the largest global players are limited to one or two countries. For example, Atos Origin is active in open source mainly in France; LogicaCMG in the UK; and Capgemini in France. Vendors are sitting on the sidelines before investing consulting time and marketing cash in a Pan-European open source offering. Europe s Open Source Service Providers Fall Into Four Segments To better understand the offerings available to European firms today, Forrester interviewed and graded 17 open source service providers ranging from France-based specialist Linagora to global giant IBM. Based on our survey, we structured the market into four segments: 1. Small open source specialists. Open source specialist startups created the market. These niche players, exclusively focused on open source, base their differentiation on expertise and technical skills, often through their contribution to open source development. These specialists coverage breadth varies across development, 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

9 8 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe maintenance, off the shelf open source packages, and support services. A handful of French vendors including Alcove, Nuxeo, IDEALX, Linagora, and Open Wide have reached critical mass 30 to 60 people and participate in large projects. Red Hat is the only provider that actually covers several countries mainly the UK, France, and Germany, but also Benelux, the Nordics, Eastern Europe, Italy, and Spain. Specialists rarely reach large accounts directly, but instead participate in large projects through global players that subcontract. 2. Large open source strategists. Some global service providers see new opportunities for services in open source and have recently put together open source teams. They claim to have resources dedicated to open source 150 employees at Atos Origin; 200 at IBM; and 250 at Bull. Through its acquisition of SUSE LINUX, Novell has joined this category in the UK and Germany. Bull has a longer history than the others: 100 people in its R&D department have been contributing to open source code for the past six years, and Bull is cofounder with INRIA and France Télécom of ObjectWeb. LogicaCMG doesn t have dedicated open source teams but integrates open source components into its solutions. These global players support all project tasks on their own and only use subcontractors in isolated cases. 3. Large open source subcontractors. Traditional IT service providers also see open source as a potential revenue source but don t want to build dedicated open source teams; they prefer to embed open source specialists in their project teams. They tend to design solutions with open source components built in and trust external specialists for new developments. Capgemini is one example; it has around 50 people in its open source department and several specialized partners. 4. Midsize open source opportunists. A few national systems integrators have an open source offering, such as Morse in the UK, Euriware and Unilog in France, Ordina and PinkRoccade in the Netherlands, and Camelot ID-Pro in Germany. They generally act as prime contractors, without specialist support, and have limited dedicated resources for example, 40 employees at Euriware; 50 at Morse; and none at Ordina. These vendors don t push or promote open source but instead take an opportunistic approach. They differentiate from the specialists via their ability to act as prime contractors and to integrate open source with commercial products. For example, ThoughtWorks, a US provider with 500 people worldwide and 150 people in the UK, sits in this category. ThoughtWorks has deep expertise in open source but embeds it in its core technology strategy along with Microsoft.NET technology. June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

10 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 9 EVALUATING EUROPE S OPEN SOURCE SERVICE PROVIDERS There are relatively few IT services firms in Europe capable of providing an end-to-end open source service. Consequently, selecting a provider is critical. To assess the vendors, Forrester constructed a comparison matrix that compares the 17 vendors capable of providing open source development, implementation, and support. The assessment criteria comprise: Open source expertise. This is mainly based on the number of experts and dedicated resources, background recent activity versus several years of activity in open source and customer references. We also consider the contribution to code within the open source community. Technical coverage. This breaks out into seven subcategories: business applications, including ERP, CRM, and portals; development tools, including modeling tools, code generators, configuration management, Web platforms, and application servers; integration software, such as EAI, messaging, and workflow engines; databases, such as MySQL; operating systems, such as Linux; Web infrastructure, such as Apache and Tomcat; and security, including filters and antivirus capabilities. Service breadth. We consider three categories of capabilities: development and implementation, maintenance, and support including on-site technical assistance and hot-line and help desk platforms. Strategy. This covers the ability of an IT service provider to act as prime contractor for projects involving open source. It includes the partnership strategy, prepackaged open source solutions, sales strategy, and evident differentiators. Viability. This measures the financial strength, customer base, and overall size of the vendor. We regard the evaluated firms as credible players with proven skills and significant dedicated resources in the open source marketplace (see Figure 3). Consequently, low scores do not mean that the criteria are not met but that they are relatively weak compared with other players. A low score on expertise suggests that the provider only partially covers the seven open source software categories, or that the provider s experience is recent, or that the resources dedicated purely to open source are limited. 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

11 10 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe Figure 3 Europe s Open Source Services Providers Assessed Business Expertise apps Small open source specialists Alcove Dev. tools Technical coverage Integration Databases OS Web infras. Security Services Strategy Viability IDEALX Linagora Open Wide Red Hat Global generalists Atos Origin Bull Capgemini EDS IBM LogicaCMG Midsize generalists Euriware Morse Ordina Novell PinkRoccade ThoughtWorks Scale: 1 [poor provision] 4 [full provision]. Source: Forrester Research, Inc. June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

12 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 11 Europe s Open Source Services Firms Assessed Based on our five detailed criteria for assessment, firms can select the appropriate provider. Our assessment reveals that: Bull and IBM lead the pack on open source strategy. Bull has the largest open source teams and the longest experience in the market. The vendor offers ready-to-go open source packages. IBM promotes Linux as a catalyst for its service business, including its BTO initiative, its on-demand utility services, reusing existing servers, and reducing Unix migration costs. ThoughtWorks, Linagora, and Open Wide win on deep expertise. These specialist vendors are well placed: when expertise on open source code is required; for pure open source projects if so, they may operate directly; and to reinforce generalist integration teams on open source developments. Open source service capability varies widely. Due to the unbalanced service coverage of vendors, end users should select the appropriate vendor for each type of project. For example, IT shops should select Red Hat, IDEALX, and IBM for Linux migration, or Novell/SUSE LINUX, Bull, and Red Hat for on-site and online support. IDEALX leads the off-the-shelf solution market. Companies looking for off-theshelf solutions and for providers acting as commercial software vendors will turn to IDEALX. Nevertheless, its capabilities are limited to Web infrastructures and security. Open Wide leads the embedded real-time Linux market. Thanks to its partnership with French industrialists Thales and Schneider Electric, Open Wide reaches the defense industry and is ahead in this fast-growing niche. France and Germany are the larger markets in Europe today. The UK market is mainly covered by small startups and independent consultants; UK companies looking for significant players will turn to ThoughtWorks, Morse, and IBM. LogicaCMG and Atos Origin have the capabilities to extend their open source business in the Netherlands. R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S DEFINE YOUR OPEN SOURCE STRATEGY Poor strategy and a lack of clear plans are the main pains for end users. They need to overcome their fears and manage risk through a clear open source strategy, including careful vendor selection. They should: 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

13 12 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe Select open source components and their deployment areas. Users should define a strategy on open source components and target the environments (critical or not) where they need to implement open source-based systems. Some players, such as IDEALX, publish and regularly update guides and white papers that help companies establish their list of open source components and their area of use. Make a business case for each open source project. As software vendors increasingly develop arguments about the lower total costs of open source arguments that are sometimes unclear or unproven it is critical for end users to not only establish the costs and benefits of the solution, but also to rate its risks and future flexibility. European companies need to generalize these basic practices for all open source projects. Avoid fragile startups. Many European open source startups have already disappeared. Very small startups risk being acquired, posing the question of future maintenance. However, for small less than 200,000 and pure open source projects, small specialists are a good bet, assuming they can solve two long-term maintenance issues: 1) the application code must remain real open source code that is, accessible, not proprietary, even it is packaged; and 2) the provider must engage on the maintenance, or the end user must support it internally or via a thirdparty maintenance provider. Add specific selection criteria for open source. Approaches for pure open source projects are different to those with commercial software. Users need to rate the effectiveness of technical expertise and the vendor s background in open source. W H A T I T M E A N S MARKET CONSOLIDATION WILL HELP CLIENTS Companies face massive pressure to reduce their IT costs. Companies increasingly see open source along with outsourcing as an important way to reduce costs. They are rejecting vendor pricing practices, such as those from Oracle, BEA Systems, IBM, and Microsoft. In this environment, open source obviously encourages reduced prices for licenses. Although free licenses raise issues around integration costs, maintenance uncertainty, and security concerns, there is a large potential for this market. The European market is on the brink of consolidation. Niche players gain their expertise and recognition from their contribution to source code; this provides them with a technical edge. But focusing on open source technology and, in some cases, refusing projects that are not pure open source puts them at risk: June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

14 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 13 They potentially miss out on the actual service market, which involves integrating various technologies both commercial products and free components. Many small startups will continue to grow, but consolidation looks inevitable: Most small, specialist startups with 30 to 80 employees represent potential acquisitions for global and national players. Who might acquire them? Possibly Capgemini, Atos Origin, Unilog, LogicaCMG, or national systems integrators looking to rapidly expand their open source teams and gain market share. Some specialists that act as packaged software vendors may get to expand. Some players claim to compete against software vendors rather than service providers. For example, French vendor IDEALX develops packaged solutions that compete in the software market. In particular, it has very strong solutions in the security space these represent credible alternatives to products from vendors like Entrust and Check Point. Open Wide and Bull aren t like IDEALX, however; their prepackaged solutions involve a different approach to those small service firms that only provide services. Global players strategy drivers vary. IBM promotes Linux as a catalyst for its service business and middleware sales. Linux enables IBM to hang on to clients by reducing the cost of Unix deployment and maintenance; consequently, this may bring in more services work for IBM. Other vendors tend to replace declining integration service revenues by offering open source services. Service providers need to meet user expectations. Service providers need to refine their open source strategy and organize their capabilities. In particular, they must: base their proposition on added value; highlight their ability to integrate and mix commercial and open source components; structure their support processes; and guarantee long-term maintenance. The market requires some triggers to take off. Global players are still cautious and are waiting for durable growth and momentum. If end users continue to hesitate, the market risks stagnating. Key triggers to lift the market are Linux on the desktop and significant projects in mission-critical environments. A L T E R N A T I V E V I E W OPEN SOURCE NEEDS TO BEAT THE COMMERCIAL SOFTWARE FIGHTBACK The most likely alternative is for packaged application and middleware vendors to react to open source software and for Microsoft to react Linux. The battle may no longer be about price but rather about commercial support and engagement. 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

15 14 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe Uncertainty around Linux may outweigh cost savings. Packaged application and middleware vendors challenge open source s viability because of its lack of support, its lack of commercial responsibility, and its poor long-term outlook. They may adapt their pricing to the point that the open source cost savings won t outweigh the fears and uncertainty. For example, BEA Systems has begun to adapt its price for relatively small deals in the small and midsize markets when they compete against open source solutions. Slow Linux on the desktop uptake may limit wider adoption. Systems integrators believe that deployment of Linux on the desktop will be the trigger for wider open source adoption. But if Microsoft is able to block Linux, this could considerably affect the credibility of open source. Today, the experience of Linux on the desktop is limited to the public sector for example, in the town of Munich, Germany, and in organizations within the French Ministry of Research. If Linux doesn t gain a bigger foothold in the enterprise environment, its future may remain limited. June 22, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

16 Market Overview Exploiting Open Source In Europe 15 SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL Methodology We interviewed 35 user companies across Europe for this document. In addition, we interviewed the following vendors: Companies Interviewed For This Document Alcove Atos Origin BEA Systems Bull Capgemini Computer Sciences Corporation Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu EDS Euriware IBM IDEALX Linagora LogicaCMG Morse Novell/SUSE LINUX Open Wide Ordina PinkRoccade Red Hat ThoughtWorks 2004, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited June 22, 2004

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