Evènement parallèle «Expérience des pays francophones en matière de montage de NAMAs et des INDCs» CdP20, Lima, Pérou, 6 décembre 2014 Expériences nationales sur le développement de NAMAs et la définition S. Amous (Apex) R. Missaoui (Alcor) de l INDC
Content Tunisian circumstances Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tunisian GHG mitigation effort INDC Tunisian approach
GHG and NAMAS in Tunisia Rafik Missaoui (ALCOR) To be included in ongoing BUR1 - with support from UNDP (expected submission mid-december 2014)
Tunisian context Population 10.89 millions in 2013 Area Coast Desert area 40% Climate Rainfall 162,155 Km² 1148 km Mediterranean in the North and Coast Semiarid in the inland and Saharan in the South North 800 mm, South 50 to 150 mm GDP 4329 $/capita in 2013 Net GHG emissions 3.2 tco 2 e/capita in 2010 UNFCC ratification 1993 KP ratification 2003 National Communication 1 st : Oct. 2001 2 nd : Feb. 2014 Climate Change National Strategy 2030-2050 BUR1 Published in 2010 Under preparation
GHG emissions inventory 2010 (supported by GIZ) Total gross emissions in 2010: 47.7 MtCO 2 e
GHG emissions inventory 2010 Emissions VS Net-Emissions (Gg or kt) CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs TOTAL Gross Emissions (Gg) 37 169,2 297,7 8,3 237,5 (*) Removals (Gg) -13 610,9 0 0,0 0,0 Net Emissions (Gg) 23 558,3 297,7 8,3 237,5 Gross Emissions (Gge- CO 2 ) Net Emissions (Gge- CO 2 ) 37 169,2 7 443,1 2 484,0 237,5 47 333,7 23 558,3 7 443,1 2 484,0 237,5 33 722,8 (*) Expressed in tco2e AFOLU: Balance Emissions/Removals Net Removals -2.4 MtCO2e
Analyse des sources clefs GHG emissions Secteur inventory 2010 kt GHG kt CO2e % Cumulative (%) 1 1.A.1.a - Main Activity Electricity and Heat ProductionCO2 7 600,0 7 600,0 12,47 12,47 2 3.B.2 - Cropland CO2 7 320,3 7 320,3 12,01 24,48 3 3.B.1 - Forest land CO2 6 134,9 6 134,9 10,07 34,55 Key-sources 4 1.A.3.b - Road Transportation CO2 5 918,4 5 918,4 9,71 44,26 5 1.A.2 - Manufacturing Industries and Construction CO2 4 666,5 4 666,5 7,66 51,92 6 3.D.1 - Harvested Wood Products CO2 3 646,9 3 646,9 5,98 57,90 7 2.A.1 - Cement production CO2 3 643,6 3 643,6 5,98 63,88 8 3.B.3 - Grassland CO2 2 850,4 2 850,4 4,68 68,56 9 3.A.1 - Livestock - Enteric Fermentation CH4 100,9 2 523,3 4,14 72,70 10 1.A.1.c - Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries CO2 1 893,4 1 893,4 3,11 75,80 11 4.A - Solid Waste Disposal CH4 73,6 1 839,6 3,02 78,82 12 1.A.4.b - Residential CO2 1 719,4 1 719,4 2,82 81,64 13 1.B.2.b.i -Natural gas - Venting CH4 48,8 1 219,2 2,00 83,64 14 3.C.4 - Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils N2O 4,1 1 220,6 2,00 85,65 15 1.B.2.a.ii - Oil Flaring CO2 1 010,5 1 010,5 1,66 87,30 16 1.A.3.e.i - Pipeline Transport CO2 862,6 862,6 1,42 88,72 17 1.A.4.c.ii - Off-road Vehicles and Other Machinery CO2 737,2 737,2 1,21 89,93 18 2.A.4.a - Ceramics CO2 697,3 697,3 1,14 91,07 19 1.A.4.a - Commercial/Institutional CO2 662,6 662,6 1,09 92,16 20 1.A.1.c - Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries CH4 20,0 500,9 0,82 92,98 21 1.B.2.b.i -Natural gas - Venting CO2 498,6 498,6 0,82 93,80 22 4.D.1 - Domestic Wastewaster Treatment and Discharge CH4 19,1 476,4 0,78 94,58 23 3.C.5 - Indirect N2O Emissions from managed soils N2O 1,4 409,1 0,67 95,25
GHG emissions inventory Increase in GHG emissions (+3.2% per year over the period 1994-2010) Decrease in the carbon intensity (-1.9% per year over the period 1994-2010)
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Developed NAMAs ANME/ UNDP Cement sector ANME/ GIZ Tunisian Solar Plan Waste water treatment ONAS / GIZ S.S. for SD & Environment ANME / GIZ EE & RE in Buildings Forestry City NAMA Ministry of Agriculture / GIZ Sfax City / ANME /GIZ (Ongoing)
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA on EE & RE in buildings Objective: Scale up energy efficiency and renewable energy measures in the building sector Scope: EE&RE in existing building (PV, SWH, insulation) Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Sustainable financial mechanism including: commercial loans, public subsidy (ETF), international donor support Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) 2015-2020: 1.2 2015-2030: 6.8 Incremental investment cost 680 M Incremental investment cost tco2e Supporting financing from donors 100 /tco2e 52 M NAMA supporting activities 4.7 M
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in cement sector Objective: Reducing GHG Emission Profiles in Cement sector in Tunisia Scope: EE&RE, Co-processing, Reduction of Clinker/Cement Ratio Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Result-based financial mechanism (Financial line, Investment Fund) Unlocking Regulatory Barriers to Wind Power, Co-processing and Cement market Segments Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) Incremental investment cost 970 M Incremental Investment Cost per tco2e 2014-2020: 8.0 2014-2030: 33.9 29 /tco2e NAMA supporting activities 8.5 M
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in wastewater sector Objective: Low-carbon technology deployment in the wastewater sector in Tunisia Scope: Aerobic wastewater digestion in open lagoons, sludge landfill gas capture, bio digesters, EE & RE Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Financial support from donors Coordinating entity: National Office of Sanitation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) 2015-2020: 0.9 2015-2030: 3.5 Incremental investment cost 580 M Incremental cost per tco2e Supporting financing from donors 165 /tco2e 95 M NAMA supporting activities 1.2 M
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in Forestry and Land-Use Objective: Support the achievement of the next two Tunisian forest strategies (2015-2024 and 2025-2034) Expanding the forest cover rate to 10% by 2035. Scope: Increase Carbon Uptake through Reforestation/Forest and Pasture regeneration Components (total: 23,000 ha/year): Reforestation native forest species (12,000 ha) Reconstitute existing young forestry areas which forest cover is below 50% (3,000 ha / year ) Assisted regeneration of senile natural forests (3,000 ha / year ) Planting fodder shrubs in area with high desertification risk (5,000 ha / year) Coordinating Entity: Forestry General Directorate (Ministry of Agriculture) CO2 Uptake (MtCO2e) Total Incremental Investment Cost 415 M Incremental Investment Cost per tco2e (estimated up to 2050) NAMA supporting activities (Pilot phase 2015-2016, incl. Investments) 2016-2020: 1.6 2016-2034: 20.2 2016-2050: 66.8 6.2 /tco2e 12.7 M
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Tunisian Solar Plan (TSP) NAMA Objective: Support the achievement of the TSP objectives (30% of RE Electricity by 2030) Scope: Wind, CSP, biomass and PV (including PV roof installations) Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Sustainable financial mechanism including: private investment, public subsidy (ETF), public investment and international donor support Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) 2015-2020: 3.8 2015-2030: 27 Incremental investment cost 4700 M Incremental cost per tco2e Supporting financing from donors 175 /tco2e 500 M NAMA supporting activities 1.1 M
Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Recapitulation NAMAs NAMA in building sector NAMA in cement sector NAMA in waste water treatment sector Forestry and Land-Use Change GHG reductions over 2015-2030 (MtCO2e) Incremental Investment cost (M ) NAMA supporting activity cost (M ) Investment cost ( /tco2e) 6.8 680 4.7 100 33.9 970 8.5 29 3.5 580 1.2 165 12.7 415 12.7 6.2 NAMA for TSP 27 4,700 1.1 175 TOTAL 7,345 28.2
INDC Tunisian approach - with support from UNDP Samir Amous (APEX Conseil) To be submitted by March 2015
INDC simulations Timeline targets: 2020-2025-2030 Mainly - Bottom-up approach Targeted Sectors Energy Efficiency + Renewable Energy (Bottom-up) Industrial processes (80% Bottom-up & 20% Top-down) AFOLU (Bottom-up) Wastes (Bottom-up) BAU: Includes usually implemented (or ongoing) mitigation activities Mitigation Scenario Includes recent mitigation studies + 6 identified NAMA activities Need for support from Post-Kyoto financial mechanisms
Aggregated results (Net emissions) All Emission Sources 2010 2020 2025 2030 Population 10 547 11 714 12 173 12 551 GDP Cnst2005 (Millions US$) 28 231 40 761 53 521 71 434 National Emissions - BaU Scenario (1000 tco2e) National Emissions - Mitigation Scenario (1000 tco2e) 33 723 44 873 55 575 69 614 33 723 31 753 36 786 43 455 Emission Reductions in absolute values as referred to BAU (1000 tco2e) Emission Reductions as related to BAU (%) 13 120 18 788 26 159-29,2% -33,8% -37,6%
Aggregated results: GHG emissions
Aggregated results : GHG intensity 2020 2025 2030 GHG Intensity BaU (tco2e/1000 US$) 1,195 1,101 1,038 0,975 GHG Intensity Mitigation Scenario (tco2e/1000 US$) 0,779 0,687 0,608 Decrease in GHG Intensity as related to BAU (%) -29,2% -33,8% -37,6% Decrease in GHG Intensity as related to 2010 (%) -34,8% -42,5% -49,1% -49.1%
Aggregated results (GHG/Capita) 2020 2025 2030 Emissions par Capita BAU Scenario (tco2e) 3,2 3,8 4,6 5,5 Emissions par Capita Mitigation Scenario (tco2e) 3,2 2,7 3,0 3,5 Decrease in GHG per Capita as related to BAU (%) -29,2% -33,8% -37,6%
Sectoral GHG mitigation results Tous secteurs 2010 2020 2025 2030 Mitigation values (1000 tco2e) 13 120 18 788 26 159 Energy (Incl. EE&RE in Cement sector) 6 229 9 659 14 729 Cement (incl. Co-processing & Excl. EE&RE) 1 270 1 356 1 465 Industrial processes (Cement excluded) 573 612 666 AFOLU (increase in net uptake) 2 265 3 685 4 949 Solid Wastes (Excl. Co-processing) 2 682 3 356 4 211 Liquid Wastes (Excl. EE&RE) 101 120 139
Sectoral GHG mitigation results: as related to BAU 2010 2020 2025 2030 Energy (Incl. EE&RE in Cement sector) -17,2% -22,3% -27,9% Cement (incl. Co-processing & Excl. EE&RE) -20,4% -17,4% -15,0% Industrial processes (Cement excluded) -31,2% -26,3% -22,1% AFOLU (increase in net uptake) 60,1% 106,1% 154,7% Solid Wastes (Excl. Co-processing) -50,0% -50,0% -50,0% Liquid Wastes (Excl. EE&RE) -12,3% -13,9% -15,4% 3 1 2
Evènement parallèle «Expérience des pays francophones en matière de montage de NAMAs et des INDCs» CdP20, Lima, Pérou, 6 décembre 2014 S. Amous (Apex) R. Missaoui (Alcor) Thanks شكرا