FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS OF KENYA PROBLEMS AND CONSTRAINTS

Transcription

1 FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS OF KENYA PROBLEMS AND CONSTRAINTS CONTENT OF THE 1 ST NATIONAL COMMUNICATION 9 Chapters Executive Summary National Circumstances Sustainable Development GHG Inventory Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Mitigation Options Research and Systematic Observations Education Training and Public Awareness Projects Annexes PROCESS Kenya s 1 st National Communication was due by end of 1997 in accordance with Article However, due to unavailability of financial resources from national sources, the timing of submission of the communication was delayed awaiting the implementation of Article 4.3 (provision of financial resources by Annex II Parties). The exercise of preparing the national communication did not start until July 1999 after funds were made available for the exercise by the Global Environment Facility through the United Nations Environment Programme. The activities for the preparation of the National Communication was carried out by a national communication/project Management Team and four technical working groups (TWGs) established along the thematic areas of the Convention, namely TWG on:- 1. National GHG Inventory 2. GHG Mitigation Options 3. Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation and Impacts Assessment 4. Education Training and Public Awareness Kenya has had a number of studies related to Climate Change enabling activities and the project on national communications built on these. They included:- a) The United states Country Studies Programme (USCSP) in 1994.

2 This project focused on the analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability/impacts, and adaptation assessment. The areas covered included: agriculture (only maize); water resources (one basis); forestry; fisheries on lakes Victoria and Naivasha. GHG emission inventory was carried out for land use change, energy, industry, agriculture and waster management. b) The project UNDP/GEF Capacity Building in Sub-Saharan Africa to Respond to UNFCCC. This was a regional project covering 4 countries of which Kenya was one. It started in 1996 and was completed in May The objective was to build Technical and Institutional Capacity in the four African countries so that they would respond to their obligations under the UNFCCC. However, there were difficulties during the execution of the project and consequently not all the original objectives were met. While the project duration was 2 years, infact only five months were actually spent on project activities. GHG Inventory - GHG Inventory for the year 1992 using IPCC reference methodology. Study covered 5 sectors: Namely Energy (fossil fuels, coal, lubricants and woody biomass); agriculture (rice cultivation and livestock production); landuse changes and forestry (forest clearing, biomass harvest, abandoned managed lands and burning of savannah including grasslands; Industry (cement production, lime use, soda ash production) and Wastes (urban solid waste and sewerage water waste) A number of gaps were identified:- i. IPCC default values were used in various sectors. Need to develop local emissions factors (e.g for the small holder farmer managed systems) ii. Due to the time limitation, the inventory did not take into account the great variations in climate. Soils, topography, animals and crop species across the country iii. Lack of data in the correct format for many industries and lack of information on many newly introduced industrial processes. Such information can be obtained if sufficient time is allowed for studying these processes under local conditions and establishing empirical values of emission factors for proper estimations of GHG emissions iv. Lack of comprehensive Survey of urban waste management 2

3 No funds were provided for work as GHG inventory. Built on the results of the UNDP GEF Capacity Building. Base year Methodology used Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines, IPCC default values except for cement and live production processes Emission of direct effect - CO 2, NO X, N 2 O Emission of indirect effect - CO, NO x, NMVOCs CO 2 emission from fuel combustion - Use reference approach - Sources of data GHG Inventory Problems and Constraints Technical Data unavailability and/or unsuitability for inventories, particularly data on trends and rates of land-use change Not possible to calculate CO 2 emission from soils because of inadequate data and high variability of Soil Carbon Content. Available land use and forest data published in literature emphasise scientific and not traditional usage of forests. Studies need to be carried on other potential sinks, coffee tea, coconuts, cashew nuts not included in the IPCC methodology There is need to build institutional capacity to carry out research and training on Climate Change issues in support of the preparation and reporting of national GHG inventory. IPCC do not reflect the case of burning waste or open dumps No methodology by IPCC on solvents: used EMEP/CORINAIR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS/VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS USED OVER KENYA 3

4 A number of GCM Models were used to develop Climate Change Scenarios. All models indicated increasing temperature changes at all locations with doubling of CO 2. Increases varied significantly not only from month to month but also from location to location. The increases ranged from 0.5 to 3 0 C. Two GCMs namely, CCCM and GFDL3 were found to give reasonable results from the various locations is Kenya. Both models indicated increasing temperature trends with a maximum of about 3 0 C with the doubling of CO 2. Given is a table that represents the range of climate change scenarios used in the sectoral studies. Table 5.1: The GCMs available Climate Change Study Climate Model Model Resolution (Latitude - Longitude) levels Temp. Change ( o C) GISS GISS GFDL GFDL UKMO NCAR T CCC T GERMAN UKMO GERMAN GDFL Notation: GISS - GORDAD Institute for Space Science UKMO - UK met Office CCC - Canadian Climate Model GDFL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research Time horizon used was Scope of assessment: 4

5 - Agriculture, water resources, aquatic & coastal resources Terrestrial ecosystems, human settlements, energy and health. This built on earlier work where gaps such as those listed below were noticed. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS A number of sectors covered by analyses are inadequate. Water resources (1 basin) agriculture (dry been) aquatic resources (marine fisheries) human health (correlation of malaria for 8 provinces with rainfall and temperature for ), terrestrial ecosystem (grassland and wildebeests in the Masai Mara Game Reserve), human settlements (Nairobi and Laikipia) The need to further improve the vulnerability and adaptation assessments cannot be overemphasized. Important areas such as agriculture and water resources need to be covered adequately. In all these sectors under the current study was what was reported on: Evaluation of current climate situation Expected Climate Changes Expect impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability assessment & adaptation options CONSTRAINTS Institutional Charges on data Institution are not obligated to report on their activities to the Focal Point Technical Lack of experience & trained expertise Lack of data Lack of software (and even hardware) for analysis Lack of modeling expertise Lack of experience & models for cost/benefit analysis Lack of methods for development of socio-economic scenarios ABATEMENT IDENTIFICATION OF GHG MITIGATION OPTIONS 5

6 Under the UNDP/GEF Capacity building project, recommendations were made to mitigate GHG emissions from the energy sector, human settlements transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management. However, these recommendations were very generic as they were made without any inputs from GHG Inventory and hence without any in-depth least-cost analysis. Abatement Analysis Methodology LEAP for Energy - Abatement scenario Expert judgment used Many of the measures under consideration for GHG abatement are the so called no regrets measures Technical and Methodological - Getting data for the studies was a major problem in all the sectors - Lack of skilled experts (no experiences with models) - Lack of models/software for scenarios construction except for Energy EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS Level of awareness on - Environmental issues - Climate Change issues Gaps and constraints 6