Capturing Growth Opportunities

Capturing Growth Opportunities Macroeconomic update Speaker: Archil Gachechiladze, Group CFO

Hungary Czech Republic Latvia Poland Lithuania 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 n economy: reforms driven success GDP: robust growth potential, strong rebound after 2009 Diversified nominal GDP structure, 2014 20 15 10 5 0-5 12. 11.1% 9. 9. 5.9% 10.2 7.8 6.4 5.1 4.0 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 12.8 10.8 11.6 7. 6. 4. 2. 3.3% 6. -3.7% 2 1 1 - Financial intermediation 3. Education 5.1% Healthcare 6. Real estate 6. Construction 7.1% Other 8.3% Trade 17. Manufacturing 16.9% Source: GeoStat Nominal GDP, US$ bn Real GDP growth, % change y/y Agriculture 9.3% Transport & Public communications administration 10. 9.9% Average real GDP growth over 2003-14 Rapidly growing per-capita GDP 7% 3% 1% 1.3% 2. 2. 3.3% 3. 4. 4.1% 4.1% 4.8% 6.3% 7% 3% 1% 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 8,526 9,209 9,566 8,006 7,287 6,135 6,571 5,788 6,030 4,434 4,329 4,943 4,131 3,431 3,779 2,479 3,159 3,711 4,267 3,720 2,694 2,951 924 1,202 1,522 1,863 Nominal GDP per capita, US$ GDP per capita, PPP Source: IMF, GeoStat Source: IMF page 2

s international ranking - consistently outperforming peers Doing business, 2016 Business Bribery Risk, 2014 UK USA Sweden Norway France Montenegro Serbia 6 7 8 9 16 24 27 Regional leader 36 37 41 46 55 59 63 83 Germany USA Norway Netherlands UK Poland Serbia Montenegro Armenia 9 10 11 12 13 19 22 31 52 67 70 73 83 87 134 140 Source: WB Source: Trace International Economic Freedom Index, 2015 Total tax rate (% of profit), 2015 USA UK Germany Latvia Hungary France Italy 12 13 16 22 24 37 Mostly free 54 57 69 70 73 80 85 Source: Heritage Foundation 162 Kuwait UAE Canada China Cyprus Bulgaria UK Lithuania USA Germany Italy France 12.8% 14.8% 16. 21. 22.8% 23. 27. 33.7% 39.8% 40.1% 42. 43.8% 48. 48.8% 48.9% 65. 66. Source: PWC Note: The total tax rate measures the amount of taxes and mandatory contributions payable by the business, expressed as a share of commercial profits page 3

s international ranking consistently outperforming peers WGI, regulatory quality ranking, 2014 WGI, government effectiveness ranking, 2014 Singapore USA Hungary Italy Bulgaria Albania Serbia Bosnia & Herz. 79.3 74.5 72.6 71.6 71.2 66.3 60.6 56.3 53.8 49.5 44.7 43.8 36.5 28.8 100.0 93.3 88.5 81.3 up 5.6p y/y Ahead of 10 EU members and all 5 candidates Source: WB Note: Reflects perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development. Singapore USA Hungary Italy Serbia Bulgaria Albania Bosnia & Herz. 100.0 89.9 81.3 80.3 72.1 71.6 up 2.2p y/y 67.3 66.8 58.2 57.7 Ahead of 4 EU 55.8 members and all 5 54.3 candidates 51.9 51.4 42.3 40.4 39.9 36.5 Source: WB Note:Reflects perceptions of the quality of public services, of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies. WGI, control of corruption ranking, 2014 Global Corruption Barometer, 2013 Singapore USA Hungary Italy Serbia Bosnia & Herz. Bulgaria Albania 35.6 26.0 20.7 19.7 17.8 14.9 97.1 89.4 87.5 75.5 up 9.5p y/y 65.4 60.6 55.3 53.8 53.4 51.9 49.0 Ahead of 13 EU 48.6 members and all 5 candidates Source: WB Note: Reflects perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests. Denmark Norway UK USA Bulgaria Latvia Greece Lithuania Serbia 1% 3% % admitting having paid a bribe 7% 7% 8% 1 Source: Transparency International 19% 21% 2 2 2 3 37% page 4

Armenia Belarus Armenia Belarus Euro Armenia Georiga Belarus Belarus Armenia vs. regional economies - absorbing external shocks through flexible exchange rate regime Currency devaluation vs. USD (last 1 year) National bank reserves change over 1 year 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 38.9% 41. Weakening against US$ 34.8% 25.1% 25.3% 25. 26. 29. 13. 13.7% 6 5 4 3 2 1 Reserve loss, % Source: Bloomberg Note: US$ per unit of national currency; 9 Nov 2014-9 Nov 2015 Source: IMF Note: From Sep-2014 to Sep-2015; Armenia s reserves exclude a US$ 500mn Eurobond issued in March 2015 Inflation remained modest in Policy rate lower in vs. peers 3 2 2 1 Annual inflation End-2014 Latest-2015 4 3 2 2 1 Monetary policy rate End-2014 Latest-2015 1 1 Source: National statistics offices Note: Latest October 2015, as of September for,, & Belarus Source: Central banks Note: Latest data as of 9 page 5

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 BOP pressure on lari eased since 2Q15 and GEL has stabilized US$/GEL exchange rate Deposit dollarization at 68% in September (+7.7ppts y/y) 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1Q15 BOP pressure Dec-Jan deposit dollarization Aug-Sep deposit dollarization 2Q15 BOP pressure eased 8 7 7 6 1.7 6 1.5 5 Source: NBG Source: NBG External accounts, US$ mn change y/y Contributions to imports decline in 9M15 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Lower imports Lower exports and remittances 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Imports Exports Remittances Source: GeoStat, NBG Savings from lower imports US$ 879mn (-1 y/y) Loss from lower exports and remittances US$ 801mn Net positive effect US$ 77mn - - - -8% -1-1 -1-1 Source: GeoStat, Galt & Taggart Consumer -10. Intermediate -1.8% Investment -1.8% Constributions to change, y/y o.w. US$ 192mn saving from oil imports page 6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F FDI drives current account deficit, mainly through capital goods imports Tourism revenues, share to GDP c3x higher over 2005-15 Money transfers, diversified by countries 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1 1 1 1 8% 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1 1 8% Source: GeoStat; NBG Tourism inflows, US$ mn Tourism inflows to GDP, % Money transfers, public sec, US$ mn Money transfers, private sec, US$ mn Money transfers to GDP, % Source: GeoStat; NBG Note: pickup in transfers to the public sector in 2015 is attributed to c-hepatitis grant Current account balance, % of GDP Key takeaways 3 2 Tourism revenues on the rise Remittances Trade Deficit mainly driven by FDI 1-1 7 of trade deficit is financed by services exports (mainly tourism, with strong growth potential) and remittances (diversified by countries) -2 Trade Deficit -3-4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F Source: GeoStat, Goods, NBG, G&T net Research Services, net Income, net Transfers, net CA deficit net FDI page 7

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Lower world commodity prices help manage inflationary pressures Annual CPI Inflation Key takeaways 1 1 1 1 8% - - Core (non-food, non-energy) Headline Inflation 8. 5.8% Annual inflation picked up starting in 2H15 and was at 5.8% y/y in October Food, healthcare, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco prices and one-time increase in electricity tariff have been the main drivers of price growth, while fuel prices have decreased NBG gradually tightened monetary policy to keep the inflation target in sight through 6-time increase in policy rate - currently at 7. Given current trend in prices, annual inflation expected at 6-6. at end-2015, moving towards target in 2H16 Source: NBG, GeoStat Commodity price index, (2005=100) Lari NEER and REER 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 115 110 105 100 95 90 Lari appreciation Lari depreciation Source: IMF Total Non-energy Energy REER, Jan 2013=100 NEER, Jan 2013=100 Source: GeoStat, NBG page 8

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Growth drivers in 2015 Key takeaways Real GDP growth, y/y n economy grew 2.9% y/y in 1H15 against a backdrop of regional turbulence Growth base in 1H15 was diversified: Construction +17. y/y Financial intermediation +9.8% y/y Hotels and restaurants +8.1% y/y Transport +6.8% y/y Tourism has been resilient. Arrivals increased 6.8% y/y to 5.0mn persons in 10M15, and tourism revenues increased 8. y/y to US$ 1.5bn in 9M15 remains attractive place for doing business. FDI up 4.8% to US$ 530.0mn in 1H15 1 9% 8% 7% 3% 1% 1 9% 8% 7% 3% 1% Number of employed persons increased 12. y/y (+60.8 thousand persons) in 2Q15 Source: GeoStat Note: Rapid estimate for 3Q15 FDI Employed persons in business sector, thousands 800 600 400 200 0-200 20 15 10 5-5 580 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Source: GeoStat FDI, US$ mn % change, y/y Employment in business sector, '000 Pers. income tax revenues, % change y/y Source: GeoStat, MOF page 9

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Austria Belgium Belarus Denmark Slovakia Latvia Armenia Kosovo Malta Lithuania Macedonia Slovenia Bos. & Herz. Croatia Hungary Banking sector: resilient and conservatively managed Key takeaways NPLs, country comparisons, 2014 Conservative capital requirements, prudent oversight of liquidity and funding risks, and low levels of leverage (loans to GDP ratio at 44. as of 2014) support stability of the financial sector NPLs remain under control at 2.9% in September 2015, down 0.3ppts y/y; Banking sector remains profitable - ROE reached 16.3% in 3Q15, up 0.9ppts y/y Deposit dollarization spiked 1.9ppts m/m to 67.1% in August and to 68.1% in September, mostly on the back of companies FX holdings on current accounts 2 2 1 1 Source: IMF Dollarization NPLs 8 7 7 6 6 5 8 7 7 6 6 5 3% 1% Deposit dollarization Loan dollarization Source: NBG Source: NBG page 10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F Norway Serbia US UK Montenegro Netherlands Germany Armenia Poland 1 37% 3 31% 28% 28% 27% 27% 2 23% 23% 23% 21% 2 2 19% Prudent fiscal framework Budget tax revenues posted a strong performance 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 GEL mn Source: MOF +6.9% VAT +15. Pers. income tax +29. +5. Corp. income tax Excise tax Property tax +7. -30. +4. Customs duties 10M13 10M14 10M15 Other taxes so did capex and privatization, while current expenditure growth was almost flat in real terms 20 15 10 5-5 -10 +7.9% Current spending, % change y/y Source: MOF +47.7% Capital spending, % change y/y 9M13 9M14 9M15 +182.9% Privatization, % change y/y Deficit at healthy 3. of GDP Although has one the lowest rates in the world, its tax to GDP is healthy due to low corruption - - - -8% -1 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Tax to GDP ratio Fiscal deficit as % of GDP Source: MOF, GeoStat Source: IMF page 11

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F Sustainable public debt ratios - manageable repayment profile Public debt to GDP Key takeaways 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Public debt to GDP ratio is capped at 6 by economic liberty act Public debt ratios have been on the declining path since 2003, and increased slightly in 2009-2010 as a consequence of global financial crisis Lari depreciation pushed debt to GDP ratio at 43% of GDP in 2015 on the back external public debt, however still well below the critical level Total public debt to GDP, % External public debt to GDP, % Small portion of budget revenues are devoted to external debt service, making debt burden manageable Source: MOF, GeoStat External debt service as % of budget revenues Public debt stock as of end-october 2015 1 1 1 8% 9.1% 8.7% 7.1% 7. 3. 7.9% 2. 4.3% 4. 4.3% 3. 7.9% 6. 6.7% Domestic 2 Other 78% Multilateral 5 Weighted average Interest rate 1.9% Contractual maturity 23 years Bilateral 1 Eurobond 9% Government external debt service as % of budget revenues Source: MOF Source: MOF page 12

Exposure to partner countries well diversified Exports, remittances, tourism and FDI inflows, 9M15 vs 9M14 33. of GDP in 9M14 35.8% of GDP in 9M15 1.1% Other 4.1% EU 10.7% 0. Other 6.9% EU 10.8% 4.8% 5.7% 5. 7.9% 5.8% 6.1% Source: GeoStat, NBG, Galt & Taggart Note: excluding re-exports, FDI as of 1H page 13

n economy: robust growth potential Factors shaping growth outlook of the regional economies in 2016: Lower oil and other commodity prices Tightening of credit conditions in emerging markets Spillovers from s recession Slowdown in China Geopolitical tensions (-) Key takeaways 2016 growth expected at 3.5- reflecting a gradual improvement in n trading partners economies, low fuel prices, tourism growth prospects and softening of GEL depreciation related uncertainties Drivers of growth in 2016 and beyond: Diversified economy Business friendly environment Strong institutions Attractive and cheap tourist destination Savings from significantly lower oil import bill (about US$ 300-400mn) Prudent fiscal limits imposed by Economic Liberty Act Potential to establish itself into a regional service hub EU DCFTA and expected surge in FDI; Key investments projects underway: BP s gas pipeline expansion (US$ 2bn investment over the next 4 years) Nenskra HPP construction by Korean company, K-water (US$ 1bn) Anaklia deep sea port (up to US$ 1 bn) Adhesive building materials factory construction by Henkel s (Germany) Israel s ELBIT Cyclone high-tech plant for Boeing and Airbus components (US$ 85mn) page 14

Kyrgyz Rep. Latvia Slovak Rep. Macedonia Lithuania Armenia Bulgaria Belarus n economy: rapid return to normal growth IMF forecast for 2016 and 2017 growth 3% 1% -1% - -3% 2016F 2017F Source: IMF, WEO October 2015 page 15

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