Consultatio Asset Management
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- Amelia Webb
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2 Consultatio Views View Macro Argentina View Badlar View FX SPOT View BCS Current government s legacy 2
3 View Macro Argentina: Macro Equation G + C + I + (X-M) = GDP (X-M) = GDP G C I Balance of Payments Current Account + Capital Account = Δ Reserves 0 = Current Account + Capital Account Δ Reserves 3
4 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap MOA and Primary products composition Soybean 41 Exports composition (in percentage) 2014 MOA 36.7 MOI, 35.2 Others 45 Other s, 52 MOI to Brazil, 48 Wheat 2 Corn 13 Primary Products, 23.6 Fuel and oil, 6.4 4
5 5 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Brazil Brazil Real Spot Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12
6 6 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Brazil Brazil: GDP Private estimate BZ GDP % 14 BZ GDP % 15 BZ GDP % Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13
7 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Soybean 700 Dolar Index Soybean price USD x Tn Right Axes Mar 15 Oct 14 May 14 Dec 13 Jul 13 Feb 13 Sep 12 Apr 12 Nov 11 Jun 11 Jan 11 Aug 10 Mar 10 Oct 09 May 09 Dec 08 Jul 08 Feb 08 Sep 07 Apr 07 Nov 06 Jun 06 Jan 06
8 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap: Soybean Soybean Wheat Corn Agricultural production (Millions of tonns) / /05 Note: *Usda estimated 2005/ / / / / / / /13* 2013/2014* 2014/2015* 8
9 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the dollar Gap Balance of Payments (mill USD) Q Q Q Q est 2015 Assumptions: Total Public Debt Amortizations -3, , ,897-10,910 Roll Over (Multilateral and Treasury bills) 2, ,320 China Swap 2,300 1,250 1, ,950 Tel -4G- Inflows ,500 Others Components 1, , ,751 Capital Account 3,547 2,043 1, ,558-5,892 Goods 8, ,443 1, ,353 Services -5,812-1, ,400-1,566-5,505 Interest -4, , ,777-4,669 Dividends and Utilities -1, ,611 Others Current Account -2,351-2,297-1, ,065-8,189 Reserves 30,188 29,934 29,700 28,680 19,057 19,057 Macro FX +15% GDP -0.5% CPI +28% dic/dic Current Account Exports -12.5% $ M Soybean price $ 375 Imports -4.8% $ M Capital Account Portfolio Investment -$ 0M FDI +$ 1410 M Capital Flight - $ 5400 M 4G Inflows +$1500 M Issue YPF debt +$ 1250 CABA +$500 Reserves (with default payments) 31,443 31,358 31,666 30,814 21,733 21,733 Reserves (w/ Roll-Over 85% Boden 15) $ ,056 Reserves (w/ Roll-Over 50% Boden 15) $ ,864 Reserves (w/roll-over 20% Boden 15) $ ,985 9
10 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Primary Expenditures T12m YoY % May 03 Nestor Kirchner elected T12m (%GDP) Total Revenues ex Anses and BCRA tranfers T12m YoY Oct 07 Cristina Kirchner elected Oct 11 Cristina Kirchner elected 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Primary Result Primary Result (Excluding CB & ANSES) Fiscal Result Fiscal Result (excluding CB & ANSES) Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 10
11 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Tax Collection T12m %GDP May 03 Nestor Kirchner elected Oct 07 Cristina Kirchner elected Oct 11 Cristina Kirchner re-elected 15.0 Jan-03 Aug-03 Mar-04 Oct-04 May-05 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 11
12 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Primary Expenditure Composition 2014 Goods and Services, 5% Universities, 3% Others, 7% Provinces, 7% Retirement pension, 34.2% Capital expenditure, 7% Wages, 13% Transfers to the private sector, 23% 12
13 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Q Q Q Q Interests payments $ 25,928 $ 7,712 $ 9,990 $ 7,309 $ 9,420 $ 34,432 Sov Bond ARS 37,670 3,483 1,925 3,231 1,784 10,422 Guaranteed Loans 3 1 1, ,057 Debt with provinces (BOGAR 2018 & 2020) 7, Debt with Banco Nacion (public sector) 19,104 3,952 3,785 3,785 3,785 15,308 Debt with Central Bank 162,775 24,892 36,438 13,795 33, ,014 Others 1, Amortizations $ 228,540 $ 32,345 $ 43,202 $ 20,831 $ 39,459 $ 135,837 Total Uses en $ $ 254,468 $ 40,057 $ 53,193 $ 28,139 $ 48,879 $ 170,269 Primary Surplus $ (172,776) $ (40,888) $ (62,392) $ (79,265) $ (101,701) (284,245) Roll Over 211,797 28,844 40,223 17,581 37, ,322 BCRA: roll-over 162,775 24,892 36,438 13,795 33, ,014 Banco Nacion: roll-over 19,104 3,952 3,785 3,785 3,785 15,308 Exchange Bonar , Issue Bocan , Bonar , Bonad 2016 y , Debt Private Issue 5,000-11,000 22,000 38,000 FGS Utilities 30,024 5,019 16,252 8, ,024 Total Funds ARS $ 122,878 $ (5,507) $ (4,912) $ (41,213) $ (41,083) $ (92,715) Pesos Gap ex BCRA $ 161,509 $ 45,565 $ 58,105 $ 69,352 $ 89,962 $ 262, Assumptions: Macro FX +15% GDP -0.5% CPI +28 dic/dic Primary Expenditures +40% YoY Revenues YoY +33% FGS Utilities ARS $ M Debt private issue $ M Primary deficit (ex anses) 4,9% Fiscal Deficit (ex anses) 6.5% 13
14 View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Others Lebacs/Nobacs Pases / Redescuentos Public Sector External Source Inflation 300, , , , ,000 50, , , , est 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 14
15 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-14 Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Consultatio Asset Management View Macro Argentina: Thinking the pesos Gap Monetary base YoY 60.0 Absorption $ M and Roll Over (58% BM) Oct-15 Jul-15 Apr Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09
16 Snapshot 16
17 View Badlar 55% (Banking Reserves+BCRA Absorption+Repo Operations)/Deposits 30% 50% Badlar Rate -Right axes- 25% 45% 20% 40% 35% 15% 30% % Credit to private sector (Ars) / Private deposit (time deposit) Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 17
18 Jan-98 Nov-98 Sep-99 Jul-00 May-01 Mar-02 Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 View FX Spot TCR Multilateral TCRM BCRA 10 Y BCS Argentina FX Adjustm ents (Mar 15) 10Y -stdev +stdev BCS 18.48% -4.68% 41.65% Spot 57.73% 26.89% 88.58%
19 View FX Spot Dolar Oficial (Base=100) Jan Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec 19
20 View Blue Chip Swap 5500 Capital Flight (M USD) T12m Right axes Turismo y viajes - neto T12M (200) (400) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) Feb-02 Jan-03 Dec-03 Nov-04 Oct-05 Sep-06 Aug-07 Jul-08 Jun-09 May-10 Apr-11 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Source: BCRA 20
21 View Blue Chip Swap ARS IMP MEP ARS IMP BCS Capital Controls YPF Nationalization 20% tax on credit card use Cedin & Anses intervention Oct 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 May (5) (5) 21 Apr 15 Jan 15 Oct 14 Jul 14 Apr 14 Jan 14 Oct 13 Jul 13 Apr 13 Jan 13 Oct 12 Jul 12 Apr 12 Jan 12 Oct 11 Jul 11 Apr 11 Jan 11 Oct 10 Jul 10 Apr 10 Jan 10
22 Current government s legacy Highly regulated economic environment Economic imbalances high inflation, low international reserves, high fiscal deficit, strongly appreciated RER Health of financial and banking system Low international exposure to argentine financial assets Low Debt to GDP ratio Holdouts / default Capital controls (BCS) Low credibility of economic statistics 22
23 Current government s legacy: Bond Spreads vs Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg & IMF 23
24 Consultatio Asset Management
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