Framework for estimating flood damage

Framework for estimating flood damage and evaluating flood management in Japan 11 December 2013 Masahiko Murase Chief Researcher International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) Public Work Research Institute Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Contents 1. Introduction 2. Disasters in Japan Background Flood Damage Statistics Survey Utilization of the Flood Damage Statistics Varied Damage 3. Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan Background Structure Method Coverage 4. Way forward 1

1.Introduction 2

1. Introduction Key questions of today s presentation Disasters in Japan Why are the governments encouraged to conduct post-disaster surveys? Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan How are the economic analysis incorporated into policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan? 3

2.Disasters in Japan 4

2. Disasters in Japan -Background Isewan Typhoon (Super Typhoon Vera) September 1959 The toll from the Isewan Typhoon disaster numbered 5,098 fatalities and missing persons and 38,921 injured. In addition to the high tide and flood flow from the river flooding, driftwood struck houses, adding to the fatalities. 1) 2) Nagoya Bay Nagoya City 894hPa min. Handa City Destroyed houses 1) Lessons from Isewan Typhoon to be passed on to the next generation (Isewan Typhoon 30th Anniversary Project Execution Committee) 2) Cabinet Office, Government of Japan: Special Committee on Archiving major disasters in Japan, 2008 JMA, 1961 5

2. Disasters in Japan -Background Tokai Storm of 2000, September 11-13 1% Obu City and Kariya City, Aichi September 12,2000 1% 11% General assets Agriculture Public infrastructures Public Services 87% Nishi-Biwajima, Aichi in Shinkawa river Total economic loss 771,492 million JPY 6

2. Disasters in Japan -Background Typhoon #23, October 2004 Total economic loss 770,910 million JPY 1% JMA The state of the damage to Toyooka Hospital (parking lot) caused by the flooding of the Maruyama River as a result of Typhoon #23 of 2004. 1) 31% General assets Agriculture 1% 67% Public infrastructures Public Services Yomiuri Shimbun 1) Breach of Maruyama River - Records of Typhoon #23 and verification, Tajima Shikyoku, Kobe Shimbun, Kobe Shimbun Sogo Shuppan Center, 2005 7

2. Disasters in Japan -Floods Damage Statistics Survey Flood Damage Statistics Survey has been carried out every year since 1961 to estimate the actual damage caused by water-related disasters such as floods, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, etc. to various general assets owned by individuals or corporate bodies (housings, household commodities, machineries for businesses, agricultural products), public infrastructure such as rivers, roads, etc. and assets for public services such as transportation, communication, etc. The survey provides basic data for presenting the need for and effectiveness of flood control measures. Damages to General Asset Number of damaged houses according to inundation depth and gradient, number of affected households, etc Damages to Public Services Physical damage, etc Damages to Infrastructure Cost for emergency rehabilitation, etc 8

2. Disasters in Japan -Floods Damage Statistics Survey Methodology of the Flood Damage Statistics Survey Flood Damage Statistics Survey is a general statistics survey based on the article 19 of the Statistics Act (approved by Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications). It is carried out by MLIT s Water and Disaster Management Bureau in collaboration with prefectures and municipalities. Occurrence of National Government water-related disaster (MLIT) Develop the guideline of flood damage statistics survey (coverage and procedure of the survey, survey format, fill-in guideline, etc.) -Aggregate the survey data -Calculate the damage -Compile and publish Flood Damage Statistics Prefectures General assets Public infrastructures Public Services Municipalities Municipalities Public Services Offices Submit within 45 days of disaster Prefectures occurrence Submit Submit Prefectures Aggregate, organize, and screen the survey data Submit -Upload the data to the DB server of Flood Damage Statistics Access to Flood Damage Statistics DB National Government (Regional Offices, etc.) Query and view the survey data 9

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Effect of Flood Management in Japan Number of Fatalities by Floods, GDP and Budget for Flood Management (2000 price) Flood manegement cost (Nominal) (hundred of million yen) GDP(nominal) <billion yen> 30,000 <600,000> Isahaya Flood Typhoon Karinogawa Typhoon Ise-Bay Number of fatalities (people) Typhoon Kathleen Typhoon Ion Typhoon Kitty Typhoon Jane Typhoon Ruth West-Japan Flood Typhoon Toyamaru Second Typhoon Muroto Typhoon No.24, No.26 West-Japan Water Disaster Typhoon No.6, No.7, No.9 Nagasaki Water Disaster Western-Sanin Water Disaster Typhoon No.6, Landslide in Nagano West-Japan Water Disaster Typhoon No.17, No.18, No.19 Pyroclastic flow of Unzen-Fugen Fugen-Dake August Flood in Kyusyu Debris Flow in Kagoshima Harihara Fukushima Tochigi Flood, Kochi Flood Debris Flow in Hiroshima Kumamoto Flood 10,000 1,000 25,000 <500,000> 20,000 <400,000> Typhoon No.17 100 15,000 <300,000> Tokai Flood 10 Flood Management Cost (Nominal) GDP (Nominal) Number of Fatalities 10,000 <200,000> 5,000 <100,000> 1 0 <0> 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Water-related Disasters Statistics in Japan *Number of fatalities exclude those who dead by tsunami *GDP : 1980-2009(2000 price), 1946-1979(1990 price)

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Inundated Area by Floods 70000 60000 50000 40000 Inundated area (10,000 ha) 30000 20000 20 10000 10 0 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Total Inundated Area (10,000ha) Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) 11

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Economic Losses to General Assets Damage to General Assets (10 billion yen) 70000 140 60000 120 50000 100 40000 80 30000 60 20000 40 10000 20 0 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) Damage to General Assets (2000 Price) 12

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Flood Damage Density (Economic Losses per Area), GDP and Budget for Flood Management (2000 price) Density of Damage Cost (thousand yen / ha) 70000 60000 50000 Damage to General Assets (10 billion yen) 140 120 100 40000 30000 20000 10000 Inundated area (10,000 ha) 20 10 80 60 40 20 0 0 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Total Inundated Area (10,000ha) Area of Inundated (Residential & Other Property) (10,000ha) Density of Flood Damage to General Assets Damage to General Assets (2000 Price) Water-related Disasters Statistics in Japan

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics All disaster damage trend in Japan 1990-2009 (2000 price) 1,500 house Billion JPY 1,000 housing companies agri/fishery housing res companies res private total river 500 coast/port sediment landslide debris road/bridge 0 sewage park/urban Year

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Effectiveness of Flood Control Projects Levee construction, channel excavation and development of detention basins were carried out in Ikarashi River and Kariyata River of Shinano River System after the flood of July 2004 in order to prevent damages from future flooding. In July 2011, heavy rain with precipitation higher than that of 2004 by 40% was recorded, however damages were significantly reduced. Heavy Rain in Niigata and Fukushima in July 2004 Levees failed in Igarashi River and Kariyata River due to 13 days of heavy rains that started from the midnight of July 12 2004. Inundation occurred in a large extent. (damage reduction due to levee construction, river channel excavation, etc) Kariyata River Detention Basin Levee construction, channel excavation, straightening of channel, etc 6 basins developed as emergency measures after 2004 flood Detention basins and upstream dam played effective roles in reducing downstream water levels and prevented inundation. [Dimensions of Kariyata River Detention Basin] Detention Area Design Capacity 912,000 m2 2,347,000 m3 Kariyata Weir Detention Basin (July 30 14:00) C B basin A basin 刈 谷 田 大 堰 地 点 20.38 平 成 16 年 7 月 13 日 洪 水 21.10 堤 防 高 17.72 平 成 23 年 7 月 30 日 洪 水 E basin F basin Detention basin straightening of channel levee construction channel excavation, etc Straightening of channel 7.13 水 害 では 越 水 Failure location Inundation area Levee construction and channel excavation in Igarashi River Inundation due to levee failure in Igarashi River (Sanjo City, Niigata Pref.) Curved channel section is straightened to safely discharge flood water and prevent flooding. Kariyata River Nakanoshima Ohashi Bridge 2-day precipitation Damages to General Asset Damaged Buildings (mm) (Upstream of Teiseki-bashi) (million yen) (number) 500.0 160000 150230 150,230 16000 14439 14,439 400.0 40% increase 388.4 120000 12000 277.0 300.0 98% reduction 80000 8000 200.0 40000 4000 100.0 3,426 3426 1062 1,062 0.0 0 0 平 成 16 年 7 月 洪 水 平 成 23 年 7 月 洪 水 平 成 16 年 7 月 洪 水 平 成 23 年 7 月 洪 水 平 成 16 年 7 月 洪 水 平 成 23 年 7 月 洪 水 93% reduction 2004.7 2011.7 2004.7 2011.7 2004.7 2011.7 15

2. Disasters in Japan -Utilization of the Floods Damage Statistics Heavy Rain in Tokai (2000.9) Effectiveness of prevention 550 billion yen 670 billion yen Total losses 120 billion yen Estimated losses with prevention measures Heavy Rain in Tokai (2000.9) (Shonai & Shin Rivers) 71.6 billion yen of investment could reduce 550 billion yen of damages Cost of Prevention Measures Inundation in Nishibiwajima Town >>Shows the effectiveness of Flood Control Measures 16

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages Impact damage caused by traffic disruptions(roads,railways,airports..) Tokai Storm in 2000 - The maximum rainfall per hour was recorded during the peak evening rush hour, disrupting public transportation and preventing large numbers of people from returning home. 1) - -Approximately 5,000 people spent the night inside JR Nagoya Station, around 1,000 each at Kintetsu Nagoya Station and Meitetsu Shin Nagoya stations, and around 1,300 in the municipal subways, in cars and on the premises, while 54,000 spent the night inside the cars of the Shinkansen train. 2) Great East Japan Earthquake - Traffic was disrupted on15 highway routes, 171 National road sections and 540 prefectural and municipal roads. - 77 passenger railway routes were damaged and disrupted (3 Shinkansen routes, 51 conventional JR line routes and 23 private and third sector railway routes). - 4 airports were damaged (out of a total of 13 airports*) (Sendai Airport was completely unusable.) area and Niigata Damage to railway facilities * Total number of facilities in the Tohoku and Kanto Near Shimanokoshi Station, North Rias Line, Sanriku Railway Co. Top part of bridge washed away People spending the night at Meitetsu Shin Nagoya Station (from the web page of The General Insurance Association of Japan) Normal conditions (Tenpaku-ku, Tokai Storm flood conditions Nagoya) 2 福 島 第 1 原 力 発 電 所 福 島 第 2原 子 力 発 電 所 橋 梁 上 部 工 流 出 Kesen Oohashi of National Route 45 Flooding of airport Legend Highways damaged locations Directly controlled damaged national locations routes Not Major ports damaged damaged The same location in normal conditions and Tokai Storm flood conditions (from the web page of MLIT) Airports Not damaged damaged 1) Tokai Storm disaster and new disaster prevention issues, Yoshiaki Kawada 2) Disaster Archipelago 2000, River Bureau, MLIT Source: MLIT Sendai Airport 17

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages Suspended functions of medical facilities and the flooding of social welfare facilities - A public hospital in Toyooka, Hyogo Prefecture was flooded by Typhoon #23 of 2004. Scheduled surgery had to be postponed for five days, while two patients were transported to other hospitals by disaster prevention helicopters since dialysis treatment could not be provided. 1) - Junwakai Memorial Hospital in Miyazaki was inundated by 1.5 m of floodwater in Typhoon #14 of 2005, causing medical equipment, rooms and facilities on the ground floor to be submerged, along with the emergency power supply, disrupting all lifelines, even the securing of drinking water. It took 1.5 months to fully recover. 2) - In the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, there were confirmed cases of deaths caused by patients being unable to undergo sufficient dialysis treatment due to living in evacuation centers. 3) The state of the damage to Toyooka Hospital (parking lot) caused by the flooding of the Maruyama River as a result of Typhoon #23 of 2004. 4) Damage to MRI equipment in the X-ray room of Junwakai Memorial Hospital as a result of the flooding of the Oyodo River as a result of Typhoon #14 of 2005. 5) - In the Tokai Storm of 2000: The rehabilitation facility in a healthcare facility for the elderly in Nishibiwa-cho was flooded, even though efforts were made to carry as much office equipment and medication as possible upstairs to the 2nd floor. As it became isolated, food and fuel for the emergency generator were transported by JSDF helicopters. 6) 1) Typhoon #23 strikes the hospital. What happened to Toyooka Hospital in the above floor-level flooding?, Japanese Journal of Nursing Administration, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2005 2) Web page of the Japan Society of Disaster Nursing: Experiencing the hospital disaster caused by Typhoon #14 and current approaches. http://www.jsdn.gr.jp/news_backno13.html 3) Yomiuri Shimbun Web page, Two artificial dialysis patients die while living in evacuation centers, April 2, 2011, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110402-oyt1t00309.htm 4) Breach of Maruyama River - Records of Typhoon #23 and verification, Tajima Shikyoku, Kobe Shimbun, Kobe Shimbun Sogo Shuppan Center, 2005 5) Provided by Junwakai Memorial Hospital (Miyazaki) 6) Reflecting back on the Tokai Storm of September, 2000 (2001) Osamu Maeda, Vice President, West Nagoya Doctors Association 18

2. Disasters in Japan -varied damages Adverse effects brought to the supply chains by disaster-stricken companies etc. If a large-scale disaster occurs, the shortage of intermediate products due to disaster-stricken companies, plants, offices etc. adversely affects the production activities nationwide in a chain-reaction manner. In case of the flood disasters which occurred in the Tokai area on September 11 and 12, 2000 The flood disasters in Tokai area, which spread over in other areas (Information searched through newspapers) * Supply chain: The connections among business operators involved in a series of processes from the raw material procurement to the delivery to consumers. In case of the Great East Japan Earthquake As the domestic semiconductor industry incurred the disaster, the relevant industries were adversely affected. Headquarters of Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota City, Aichi Prefecture) The effects of disasters incurred by semiconductor-related industries Production shut off at 24 domestic plants (including 9 associated companies) Headquarters of Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. (Osaka Prefecture) Production resumed (on April 12, 2011) The damage to the suppliers and suppliers of suppliers often hampered the smooth procurement of parts and components. Production shut off at Kyoto Plant and Shiga Plant Production resumed (on March 19, 2011) The factors hampering the smooth procurement of raw materials, parts and components Production resumed in some lines (on April 18, 2011) Aisin Keikinzoku Co., Ltd. (Toyama Prefecture) * Supplier of Toyota Motor Corporation Production resumed (on April 12, 2011) Material production (26) Production shut off on March 12, 2011 Production resumed (on March 19, 2011) Restored (on April 20, 2011) Material processing (22) Toyota Motor Kyushu Inc. (Fukuoka Prefecture) Restoration work completed at the beginning of May 2011 The production scale before the earthquake regained in May 2011 due to alternative production in other production bases Production to be partially resumed(on March 23,2011) The nighttime production lines shut off from March 12, 2011 3:00 pm. Headquarters of Mazda Motor Corporation (Hiroshima Prefecture) Restored (on April 20, 2011) Production partially resumed on April 20, 2011 Production scale before the earthquake regained around the end of June to July 2011 Production partially shut off at 2 plants in Shikoku Region Yajima Factory of Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (Gunma Prefecture) Production shut off on March 14 & 15, 2011 * The information shown above is from newspapers. Source) Extracted and complied the data from the collection of papers Vol.63 No.2, 88-100, 2007 issued by Japan Society of Civil Engineers, titled Study on the structural characteristics of urban flood disasters incurred by offices, Shuji Kimura, Yoshifumi Ishikawa, Toshitaka Katada, Kazuhiro Asano and Takashi Sato Currently in the normal operation status Production resumed (on April 12, 2011) Production resumed (on April 9, 2011) Production partially resumed on March 28, 2011 Production resumed on March 23, 2011 Source) Document No. 5, 1 st Industrial Competitive Strength Task Force, Industrial Structure Council (June 1, 2011) (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) Production shut off Production to be partially resumed in June Production resumed (on April 8, 2011) * The planned blackouts are not implemented in the areas covered by Tohoku Electric Power Co. <Legend> Buildings and facilities damaged Slight physical damage incurred A s u p lie r a fe c te d b y th e d is a s te r A s u p lie r o f a s u p lie r a fe c te d b y th e d is a s te r T h e d is tr ib u tio n n e tw o r k p a r a ly z e d A fe c te d b y th e p la n e d b la c k o u ts O th e r fa c to r s 19

3. Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan 20

3. Policy and project evaluation -Background Policy evaluation addressed by the entire government Since April 2002, policy evaluation has been conducted based on the Government Policy Evaluations Act (Government Evaluation Act). Each Ministry In the capacity of planning and establishing policies Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) In the capacity of an organization specializing in handling evaluations Prime Diet Minister Report annually Each Ministry The principle of self evaluation PLAN DO ACTION CHECK Publication of evaluation report People of Japan Coordination Send evaluation report Offer opinion and recommend action Commission on Policy Evaluation and Evaluation of Incorporated Administrative Agencies Survey and discuss Offer opinion MIC (Administrative Evaluation Bureau) Promotion of policy evaluation system Evaluation activities as an organization specializing in evaluations 21

3. Policy and project evaluation Structure Method of Policy Evaluation by MLIT (i) Policy assessment (Evaluate necessity, effectiveness, efficiency, etc. when introducing new policies) (ii) Policy check-up (Establish performance indexes and targets for each major policy target and evaluate) Policy evaluation method (iii) Policy review (iv) Individual public work project evaluation (In-depth analysis and evaluation of specific themes with strong citizen interest) Planning stage evaluation New project adoption stage evaluation Re-evaluation Ex-post evaluation 22

3. Policy and project evaluation Structure Policy assessment The policy assessment (prior evaluation) is a method to evaluate the planned programs to be newly adopted in terms of the following factors. - Objective - Necessity - Efficiency - Effectiveness Objectives Clearly specify the intensions of policies and the expected effects, and disclose the process of planning to the public. By intensively assigning budgets to the programs required by the public, thoroughly eliminate waste from the budget. (Example) - Drawing up the (tentatively called) 100 millimeter/h safety plan for assuring secure lives in anticipation of torrential downpours. - Promoting the measures against high tides and waves as emergency measures in anticipation of the sea level elevation due to global warming. Target programs The programs, attempts are made to adopt Those of the existing programs, attempts are made to revise, abolish, alleviate or extend Check the following items regarding the target programs. Specification of targets Necessity Specify the targets of objectives (policy targets, program targets, performance targets and their target values) By using the logical framework analysis procedure (logical analysis method), identify the objective necessity of programs and the logical process for achieving the targets. Logical framework analysis procedure (Logical analysis method) STEP1 Clearly indicate the gap between the target and the current status. STEP2 Analyze the cause of the gap. STEP3 STEP4 Efficiency Effectiveness Demonstrate that it is necessary to revise or improve the current system in order to achieve the target (= policy issues). Propose the specific measures and methods (=programs and projects) used for solving such policy issues. * Evaluate whether other social needs are met and the administration (government) is needed to take the responsibility. Demonstrate that the implementation of programs is more effective in terms of cost-benefit performance. Identify the effects gained by implementing the programs and the contribution to the achievement of the targets. 23

3. Policy and project evaluation Method (i) Inundation simulation Undertake inundation analysis, assuming floods of different probability scales. Obtain details of flood-prone area without improvement and with improvement. * Probability scale 1/5 Without Anticipated flood prone area analysis result without improvement With Anticipated flood prone area analysis result with improvement Dam L2 Block R2 Block L1 Block R1 Block A flood calculation is to be carried out for each flood block for each probability scale. A downstream block flood calculation is to be carried out, taking into account overflows and spills of the upstream blocks to estimate the maximum inundation damage for each block. (ii) Computation of anticipated amount of damage Based on the flood simulation results, calculate the anticipated amount of damage for each probability scale. Inundation area increases with probability scale 1/10 1/20 1/30 1/50 1/70 1/100 1/150 Dam Dam Probability scale: indicates the probability of the occurrence of floods, with 1/100 representing a flood that occurs once in one hundred years Anticipated amount of damage without improvement Anticipated amount of damage with improvement 24

イメージを 表 示 できません メモリ 不 足 のためにイ メージを 開 くことができないか イメージが 破 損 してい る 可 能 性 があります コンピュータ を 再 起 動 して 再 度 ファイルを 開 いてください それでも 赤 い x が 表 示 される 場 合 は イメージを 削 除 して 挿 入 してくださ い 3. Policy and project evaluation Method Image of Computation of Reduced Damage Using mesh data (ground elevation, asset, slope, etc.) and inundation analysis, calculate the amount of inundation damage for each mesh. The amount of damage will vary with the conditions of the flood, such as the depth of water, etc. In addition, the assumed mitigated amount of damage (benefit) is obtained through the difference between [with] and [without] project implementation. Without improvement project L2ブロック L1ブロック Inundation area and water depth reduced by river improvement With improvement project L2ブロック L1ブロック R2ブロック R1ブロック River Improvement R2ブロック Channel excavation, embankment strengthening, etc. [Total R1, R2, L1 and L2] [Total R1, R2, L1 and L2] 9 x 0.3 bil. Yen = 2.7 bil. yen 6 x 0.5 bil. yen = 3.0 bil. yen 4 x 1.0 bil. yen = 4.0 bil. yen 3 x 2.0 bil. Yen = 6.0 bil. yen Assumed damage total:15.7 bil. yen Inundation water depth 0 to 0.5 m 0.5 to 1.0 m 1.0 to 3.0 m 3.0 to 5.0 m R1ブロック 8 x 0.3 bil. Yen = 2.4 bil. yen 3 x 0.5 bil. yen = 1.5 bil. yen 3 x 1.0 bil. yen = 3.0 bil. yen 0 x 2.0 bil. Yen = 0.0 bil. yen Assumed damage total: 6.9 bil. yen Embankment strengthening 15.7 billion yen Assumed mitigated damage amount = 15.7-6.9 billion yen = 8.8 billion yen 6.9 billion yen 25

3. Policy and project evaluation Method 治 水 経 済 調 査 マニュアル P77-78 Computation of Cost-Benefit Ratio Cost-Benefit Ratio B/C =Total Benefit / Total Cost Both benefit and cost are to be calculated with the time of evaluation as the reference point in time, with the improvement period + 50 years set as the period subject to evaluation. Convert benefit and cost to net present value using the year of evaluation as a reference point, and the gross total of the benefits and costs after conversion to present value shall become the total benefits (B) and total costs (C). Image of total costs (C) and total benefits (B) Benefit Benefit converted to net present value Cost Cost converted to net present value * For dams, etc., the benefit is only generated after completion of the facilities, so there are no benefits during its improvement period. Benefit (B) Cost (C) Point of evaluation Total benefits (B) ***yen Total costs (C) ***yen Improvement period Completion of the facilities(completion of dams, flood prevention facilities(levees, etc.)) Evaluation period after completion of the facilities(50 years) Year Period subject to evaluation 26

3. Policy and project evaluation Coverage Subjects of cost-benefit analysis in flood management projects Flow effect Flood management projects Enhancement effect Direct damage Asset damage deterrent effect Human damage deterrent effect Operation damage deterrent effect Stock effect Damage prevention effect (benefit) Ex-post damage deterrent effect Indirect damage Psychological damage deterrent effect Risk premium, etc. Of the direct and indirect damage caused by flooding, in the flood control economics survey manual (proposed), evaluation is conducted using the effect of preventing damage that can be evaluated in economic terms at this stage as the benefit. Damage prevention benefit Direct damage Indirect damage Asset damage deterrent effect Classification General asset damage Houses Agricultural produce damage Infrastructure damage Human damage deterrent effect Operation damage deterrent effect Ex-post damage deterrent effect Psychological damage deterrent effect Operation suspension damage Emergency measure costs Impact damage of disruption of traffic Impact damage of breakdown of lifelines Household appliances Office depreciable assets Office inventory assets Fishing and farming depreciable assets Fishing and farming inventory assets Household finances Office Public and public interest services Household finances Office Government, local administrations Roads, railroads, airports, ports, etc. Power, water supply, gas, communication, etc. Impact damage of suspension of operations Accompanying asset damage Accompanying operational damage Accompanying human damage Accompanying ex-post damage Accompanying impact damage Details of the Effect (Damage) Inundation damage to residential and business buildings Inundation damage to furniture, automobiles, etc. Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for business, excluding land and buildings Inundation damage to business inventory Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for fishery and agriculture, excluding land and buildings Inundation damage to inventory for fishery and agriculture Inundation damage to agricultural produce Inundation damage to infrastructure, public facilities, farmland and farming facilities Human life and bodily injuries Damage to normal housework and leisure activities of households, hampered by flooding Suspension or stagnation of business production due to flooding Suspension or stagnation of public and relevant services due to flooding Post activities of flooded households, such as clean-up, additional outlay of expenses for purchases of alternatives such as drinking water, etc. Similar items to household finances Damage similar to household finances and interest on emergency loans provided by the municipalities and consolation payments, etc. Impact damage caused by disruption of transport including the surrounding areas Impact damage caused by suspension of power supply, gas, water, etc., including the surrounding areas. Impact damage caused by the fall in production of surrounding business due to shortage of items under processing and suspension of public and public interest services, such as hospitals, etc., including the surrounding areas. Psychological shock from damage to assets Psychological shock from damage to operations Psychological shock from human damage Psychological shock from damage from clean-up work, etc. Psychological shock from impact damage * Denotes items where the damage rate or damage unit cost are clearly indicated in the flood control economics survey manual (proposed). Risk premium, etc. Uncertainty due to possibility of damage Enhancement benefit Increase in land prices as a result of improvements in flood control 27

3. Policy and project evaluation Coverage Direct damage(1) Houses (Inundation damage to residential and business buildings) >> average house evaluated price per m 2 x house space x damage ratio Household appliances (Inundation damage to furniture, automobiles, etc.) >> average evaluate appliance price per household x number of household x damage ratio Office depreciable assets (Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for business, excluding land and buildings) >> average depreciable asset price by industry per employee x employee x damage ratio Office Inventory assets (Inundation damage to business inventory) >> average inventory asset price by industry per employee x employee x damage ratio 28

3. Policy and project evaluation Coverage Direct damage(2) Fishing and farming depreciable assets (Inundation damage to depreciable capital assets for fishery and agriculture, excluding land and buildings) >> average depreciable asset price per farmer/fisherman x farmer/fisherman x damage ratio Fishing and farming inventory assets (Inundation damage to inventory for fishery and agriculture) >> average inverntory asset price per farmer/fisherman x farmer/fisherman x damage ratio Agricultural produce damage (Inundation damage to agricultural produce) >> average product per area x area x price of the product x damage ratio Infrastructure damage (Inundation damage to infrastructure, public facilities, farmland and farming facilities) >> calculation in accordance with general assets damage 29

3. Policy and project evaluation Coverage Indirect damage Office (Suspension of stagnation of business production due to flooding) >> suspension damage by industry per employee per day x employee x suspension days Public and public interest services (Suspension of stagnation of public and relevant services due to flooding) >> suspension damage per employee per day x employee x suspension days Household finances (Post activities of flooded households, such as cleanup, additional outlay of expenses for purchases of alternatives such as drinking water, etc.) >> average clean-up cost per household per day x household x days + average outlay expenses per household x household Office (Similar items to household finances) >> average clean-up cost per office per day x office x days + average outlay expenses per office x office 30

4. Way forward 31

4. Way forward Answers to Key questions Disasters in Japan Comprehensive disaster management requires the understanding of reality. It is based on the appropriate follow up based on reliable post-disaster surveys. Policy and project evaluation scheme in Japan Transparency and consensus in policy making can be based on the solid method of economic evaluation. 32

Thank you for your attention! Please contact to: m-murase@pwri.go.jp 33