Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Impact Based Business Continuity Management ビジネスインパクトを 考 慮 した 事 業 継 続 マネジメントのためのリスクアセスメント 手 法 の 開 発

Transcription

1 Development of Risk Assessment Meth Title Based Business Continuity Managemen を 考 慮 した 事 業 継 続 マネジメントのためのリスクアセス メント 手 法 の 開 発 Author(s) Kawaguchi, Hitoshi Citation Issue Date URL Rights Type Thesis or Dissertation Textversion ETD 名 古 屋 工 業 大 学 学 術 機 関 リポジトリは 名 古 屋 工 業 大 学 内 で 生 産 された 学 術 情 報 を 電 子 的 に 収 集 保 存 発 信 するシステムです 論 文 の 著 作 権 は 著 者 または 出 版 社 が 保 持 しています 著 作 権 法 で 定 める 権 利 制 限 規 定 を 超 える 利 用 については 著 作 権 者 に 許 諾 を 得 てください Textversion に Author と 記 載 された 論 文 は 著 者 原 稿 となります 実 際 の 出 版 社 版 とは レイアウト 字 句 校 正 レベルの 異 同 がある 場 合 もあります Nagoya Institute of Technology Repository Sytem i offer electronically the academic information pr Technology. The copyright and related rights of the article a The copyright owners' consents must be required copyrights. Textversion "Author " means the article is author Author version may have some difference in layou version.

2 Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for Impact Based Business Continuity Management ビジネスインパクトを 考 慮 した 事 業 継 続 マネジメントのためのリスクアセスメント 手 法 の 開 発 January, 2014 Hitoshi Kawaguchi i

3 CONTENTS ABSTRACT Introduction Scope of this Study Objectives of this Study Assumed Disasters and Accidents in this Study Effectiveness of BCM Background and Problem Background of this Study Review of BCP after the Great East Japan Earthquake Review of Conventional Studies The Concept of Time Review of Conventional Studies for this Study Problem Statement and Research Contributions Overview of the Thesis Published Papers related to the Thesis Estimation Procedure of Current Recoverable Time Abstract Background and Objectives of Chapter Meaning of CRT Development of estimation procedure of CRT Development of Period-dividing Methodology for Business Impact Analysis by Hierarchical Clustering 30 Abstract Background and Objectives of Chapter ii

4 4.1.1 Business Continuity Management (BCM) and Business Impact Analysis (BIA) Unequal Incremental Method (UIM) Difficulty of Chronological Business Impact Analysis (CBIA) Characteristics of Conventional Method for CBIA Approach of Chapter The Algorithm using Hierarchical Clustering Verification of the Algorithm on a Case Study Transition in this Case Study s Company Conclusion of Chapter Development of a Multi-purpose Risk Assessment System for Multiple Management System Standards 47 Abstract Background and Objectives of Chapter Approach of Chapter Selection of MS Standards Third-party Certifications Architecture of the MUPRAS Applying Text Mining to Multiple Standards Assessment Methods of Commonality Model of Maximizing Commonality Rate Model of Maximizing the Number of RA Systems for MS Standards Solutions for the Above-mentioned Two Models A Case Study of MUPRAS Conclusion of Chapter Development of the Gap Measuring Methodology between Recovery Time Objective and Current Recoverable Time in Business Continuity Management 68 Abstract Background and Objectives of Chapter iii

5 6.2 Approach Review of Conventional Studies for Chapter Approach of Chapter Estimation Procedure of CRT Modeling Twin Model Premises Specifications of the Twin Definition of Symbols RTO Model CRT Model Numerical Experiment Structural Characteristics of the Twin Model Conclusion of Chapter Discussion Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions of this Study Recommendations Future Directions 89 REFERENCES 90 APPENDIX 102 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 112 RESEARCH 114 AWARD 118 iv

6 LIST of TABLES Table 1-1 Damage of disasters and accidents over the past five years 9 Table 2-1 Survey for BCP just after the Great East Japan earthquake 14 Table 2-2 Damage survey by three bodies 14 Table 2-3 Performance survey of BCP by three bodies 14 Table 2-4 Unexpected events after the Great East Japan Earthquake 15 Table 2-5 Conventional studies in each academic society 17 Table 2-6 Assumed disasters and accidents in conventional studies 18 Table 2-7 Objects of conventional studies 19 Table 2-8 BCM factors mentioned in conventional studies 21 Table 2-9 Published Papers related to the Thesis 24 Table 3-1 An example of Pre-rate Sheet 27 Table 3-2 Estimation case of recovery duration 29 Table 4-1 Conventional CBIA table 32 Table 4-2 A case study of UIM (Design section) 33 Table 4-3 Difficulty in UIM 35 Table 4-4 Conventional method and the method proposed in Chapter 4 36 Table 4-5 Definition of symbols 38 Table 4-6 Correlation analysis among each risk 40 Table 4-7 Input data for this case study 41 Table 4-8 Distances matrix 43 Table 4-9 Merging process (Nearest Neighbor Method) 44 Table 4-10 Merging process (Ward s method) 44 Table 4-11 Clustering result (Nearest Neighbor Method) 45 Table 4-12 Clustering result (Ward s method) 45 Table 4-13 Entropy value 45 v

7 Table 5-1 List of MS standards 50 Table 5-2 Databases used on this survey 52 Table 5-3 Size of population 52 Table 5-4 Number of samples 52 Table 5-5 Possession status of certifications (1st group) 53 Table 5-6 Possession status of certifications (2nd group) 53 Table 5-7 Objects of analysis 56 Table 5-8 Digitizing the commonality 59 Table 5-9 Definition of symbols 60 Table 5-10 Solutions of Model of Maximizing Commonality Rate 62 Table 5-11 Solutions of Model of Maximizing the Number of RAs 62 Table 5-12 Business flow and resource survey (focusing on the important) Table 5-13 Threat analysis (focusing on the important) 65 Table 5-14 Risk analysis and evaluation (focusing on the important) 65 Table 5-15 Risk measures plan (focusing on the important) 66 Table 6-1 Definition of Symbols 76 Table 6-2 Input Data (Basic data) 80 Table 6-3 Input Data (Overlapped Component Measures) 80 Table 6-4 Experimental Results (1) 82 Table 6-5 Experimental Results (2) vi

8 LIST of FIGURES Fig.1-1 Disasters and accidents over the past five years 8 Fig.2-1 The concept of time 16 Fig.2-2 The RTO decision process 16 Fig.2-3 Types of disasters and accidents in conventional studies 18 Fig.2-4 Overview of the Thesis 23 Fig.3-1 Estimation Procedure of CRT 27 Fig.3-2 An entry example of Pre-rate Sheet 28 Fig.3-3 Estimation of the damaged degree of buildings 28 Fig.4-1 Research objectives 31 Fig.4-2 Methods for BCM 32 Fig.4-3 Research flow 36 Fig.4-4 Dendrogram (Nearest Neighbor Method) 44 Fig.4-5 Dendrogram (Ward s method) 44 Fig.4-6 Transition in a company 45 Fig.4-7 Scatter Diagram and Cluster Analysis 45 Fig.5-1 Approach 49 Fig.5-2 Possession status of certifications (1st group) 54 Fig.5-3 Possession status of certifications (2nd group) 54 Fig.5-4 The MUPRAS hierarchy 55 Fig.5-5 Commonality assessment process 57 Fig.5-6 Process flow for MUPRAS 63 Fig.6-1 Approach in Chapter 6 72 Fig.6-2 Relationship among BIA, RA, and Twin Model 74 Fig.6-3 RTO Achievement 81 Fig.6-4 CRT Shortening 81 Fig.6-5 Cost of Solutions 81 vii

9 LIST of ABBREVIATIONS BCAO BCI BCM BCMS BCP BIA CBIA CP CPM CRT DCP DRII EMS EnMS SEMS ETA FSMS HAZOP UIM IS value ISMS ISO ITSMS JAB JACB JAMS JIPDEC MBCO MLIT MMRC MS MSR MTPD MUPRAS Business Continuity Advancement Organization Business Continuity Institute Business Continuity Management Business Continuity Management Systems Business Continuity Planning Business Impact Analysis Chronological Business Impact Analysis Critical Path Critical Path Method Current Recoverable Time District Continuity Plan DRI International Environmental Management Systems Energy Management Systems Sustainability for Event Management Systems Event Tree Analysis Food Safety Management Systems HAZard and OPerability study Unequal Incremental Method Seismic Index of Structure value Information Security Management Systems International Organization for Standardization Information Technology Service Management Systems Japan Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment Japan Association of Management System Certification Bodies Japan Association for Management Systems Japan Institute for Promotion of Digital Economy and Community Minimum Business Continuity Objective The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism The Manufacturing Management Research Center Management Systems Management Systems for Records Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption Multi-Purpose Risk Assessment System viii

10 NIT OHSMS OIT PMS QMS RA RLO RTO RTSMS SCSMS SRMS TNGA Nagoya Institute of Technology Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems Osaka Institute of Technology Personal Information Protection Management Systems Quality Management Systems Risk Assessment Recovery Level Objective Recovery Time Objective Road Traffic Safety Management Systems Security for the Supply Chain Management Systems Ship Recycle Management Systems Toyota New Global Architecture ix

11 ABSTRACT According to a Japan Cabinet Office survey, companies developing a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) indicated that their top-ranked problem was the lack of skill and know-how. Therefore, this study s objectives are the improvement of Business Impact Analysis (BIA) and development of Risk Assessment (RA) system, which are two main methods supporting Business Continuity Management (BCM). This study sets BCM for a single organization, as its object. Therefore, this study excludes District Continuity Plans (DCP) from its object. This study does not assume that only earthquakes and tsunamis are the disasters and accidents to be addressed by BCM. Rather, multiple hazards (all hazards) are the assumed disasters and accidents for this study; one of the goals is to reduce the occurrences of unexpected events. The three solutions proposed in this study target the improvement of an associated process; BIA of the first process, RA of the second process, and Selecting risk measures of the third process. This study improves Chronological BIA table for the BIA process in Chapter 4. Chronological BIA table is a method that temporally analyzes an impacted situation from the disruption of business until bankruptcy. The Unequal Incremental Method (UIM) is the conventional period-dividing method in the Chronological BIA table. This method gradually widens the divided period from as a few hours, to a few days, to a few weeks, and finally to a few months. This study indicates the difficulty that UIM experiences in Chronological BIA table., and proposes a period-dividing algorithm applied via hierarchy clustering to solve the difficulty, using Current Recoverable Time (CRT) as input data. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by a case study. Because conventional studies targeting the BIA method - 1 -

12 were limited, the author believes that this study may be the pioneer study of the BIA method. To implement the other two solutions, this study utilizes two lessons learned from experiences of companies damaged by the Great East Japan Earthquake, and from applied BCM. The first lesson is the need for ways that enable quick responses after unexpected risks are perceived. Addressing the first lesson, a Multi-Purpose Risk Assessment System (MUPRAS) is developed in Chapter 5. The second lesson is the need for measures in situations where unexpected risks are realized before they are perceived. Addressing the second lesson, Gap measures between Recovery Time of Objective (RTO) and CRT is developed in Chapter 6. This model utilizes risk scenarios that are products of MUPRAS. In BCM operations, BIA is conducted prior to RA; then, RA is conducted, targeting the key businesses defined by BIA. To enable quick response after unexpected risks are perceived, and to be used for RA in other management systems, this study developed the above-mentioned MUPRAS. Commonizing a RA system for realizing multi-purpose is an attempt to mitigate obstructions of global competition measures in work load. MUPRAS is a risk assessment system using a scoring method to target resources. The main processes that belong to MUPRAS are identification of significant resources, resource value evaluation, threats analysis, identification of vulnerabilities, etc. The multiple purposes at which MUPRAS aims are based on the Architecture Theory, and utilize morphological analysis of text mining techniques. Using this approach, this study proposes an original method to digitize the commonalities among required specifications of each management system standard. To verify the effectiveness of this system, a case study is conducted. Because conventional studies for MUPRAS were limited, the author believes that this study may be the pioneer study of the MUPRAS. If risks are so serious that an organization cannot ignore them, a risk measures plan is considered to conduct measures for risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, or risk acceptance. This study proposes the Gap Measures between RTO and CRT as a potential solution for a risk measures plan under budget constraints. Gap Measures means measures to reduce the time that CRT exceeds RTO. This may be the first time that a study has indicated that maximizing RTO achievement number (RTO model) and maximizing CRT reduction quantity (CRT) do not go together. In the modeling, RTO model, CRT - 2 -

13 model, and these combined application are proposed, using 0-1 integer programing. To verify the effectiveness of this model, a numerical experiment is conducted using hypothetical data. Because conventional studies for RTO related modeling were limited, the author believes that this study may be the pioneer to model these risk measures. Finally, the author notes future directions for BCM method study. 和 訳 内 閣 府 の 調 査 によれば 事 業 継 続 計 画 (BCP) 策 定 企 業 は BCP 策 定 上 の 第 一 の 問 題 点 として スキル ノウハウの 不 足 をあげている 故 に 本 論 は その 問 題 解 決 に 資 するため 事 業 継 続 マネジメント(BCM)の 主 要 な 手 法 であるビジ ネスインパクト 分 析 (BIA)の 改 善 及 びリスクアセスメント(RA)システムの 開 発 を 研 究 目 的 としている 研 究 対 象 は 複 雑 さを 増 す 単 一 組 織 のための BCM 研 究 としている したがい 地 域 BCM は 研 究 対 象 から 除 外 している BCM が 想 定 する 災 害 事 故 としては 想 定 外 を 可 能 な 限 り 発 生 させないようにするために 地 震 や 津 波 だけに 特 化 することなく マルチハザードとしている 本 論 が 提 案 して いる3つのソリューションは 次 のプロセス 全 体 の 改 善 ( 第 一 工 程 :BIA 第 2 工 程 :RA 第 3 工 程 :リスク 対 応 策 の 選 択 )を 目 指 している 第 4 章 にて BIA 工 程 の 改 善 のため 経 時 的 BIA 表 の 改 善 を 行 っている 経 時 的 BIA 表 とは 組 織 が 被 災 し 事 業 停 止 した 時 点 から 最 終 的 に 倒 産 に 至 る までの 間 時 間 経 過 に 伴 って 事 業 停 止 が 事 業 に 与 えるインパクトの 状 況 を 分 析 するものである 同 表 における 従 来 の 期 間 分 割 法 は 分 割 期 間 を 発 災 直 後 か ら 数 時 間 終 日 数 週 間 数 か 月 と 段 階 的 に 広 げて 行 く 方 法 (UIM)であった UIM が 発 生 させる BIA の 困 難 性 を 指 摘 し それを 解 決 するため 現 状 で 可 能 な 復 旧 時 間 (CRT)をインプットデータとする 階 層 的 クラスラリングを 適 用 する 期 間 分 割 アルゴリズムを 提 案 している 同 アルゴリズムは ケーススタディによって 有 効 性 の 検 証 を 行 っている BIA の 手 法 を 対 象 にした 先 行 研 究 が 限 定 的 であるた め 本 論 は BIA 研 究 の 先 鞭 をなしたものと 考 えている - 3 -

14 他 の2つのソリューションを 開 発 するために 東 日 本 大 震 災 被 災 企 業 の BCM 適 用 経 験 からの 2 つの 教 訓 を 役 立 てている 第 1 の 教 訓 は それまでの 想 定 外 リ スクが 認 知 された 後 の 素 早 い 対 応 を 可 能 にする 方 法 の 必 要 性 である 第 1の 教 訓 から 第 5 章 において 汎 用 リスク 評 価 システム(MUPRAS)の 開 発 を 行 ってい る 第 2 の 教 訓 は 想 定 外 リスクが 認 知 される 前 に 現 実 化 してしまった 場 合 の 対 応 方 法 の 必 要 性 である 第 2 の 教 訓 から 第 6 章 において 目 標 復 旧 時 間 (RTO)と CRT のギャップ 対 応 策 のモデル 開 発 を 行 っている このモデルは MUPRAS の 成 果 の 一 つであるリスクシナリオを 活 用 している BCM の 運 用 において BIA が RA に 先 行 して 実 施 され BIA の 出 力 の 一 つで ある 重 要 業 務 を 対 象 にして RA が 実 施 される この RA を 想 定 外 リスクの 認 知 後 素 早 く 対 応 できるようにするため 及 び 他 のマネジメントシステムのために 実 施 される RA にも 役 立 つことを 目 指 して MUPRAS を 開 発 した RA システムの 汎 用 化 は RA システム 開 発 投 資 が 企 業 のグローバル 競 争 力 の 阻 害 要 因 になることを 緩 和 する 一 つの 試 みである MUPRAS は ビジネスフロー 別 のリソースを 対 象 と したスコア 方 式 のリスク 評 価 システムである MUPRAS が 含 む 工 程 は 重 要 なリソ ースの 洗 い 出 し リソースの 価 値 評 価 脅 威 分 析 脆 弱 性 の 識 別 などである MUPRAS が 目 指 す 汎 用 化 のために アーキテクチャ 理 論 を 基 にし テキストマイ ニング 手 法 の 一 つである 形 態 素 解 析 を 使 用 している その 方 法 にて 本 研 究 は 各 マネジメントシステムの 規 格 が 求 める 要 求 仕 様 における 共 通 性 をデジタル 化 するための 独 自 方 法 を 考 案 している MUPRAS の 有 効 性 の 検 証 のため ケース スタディを 実 施 している MUPRAS 開 発 方 法 に 関 する 先 行 研 究 が 限 定 的 である ため MUPRAS 開 発 の 研 究 は 汎 用 システム 開 発 方 法 研 究 の 先 鞭 をなすものと 考 える RA 結 果 より 判 明 した 無 視 できないほど 大 きなリスクは 回 避 移 転 削 減 又 は 受 容 のうちのどれかの 対 策 を 実 施 するため リスク 対 応 計 画 が 策 定 される リスク 対 応 計 画 として 採 用 する 対 応 策 を 予 算 の 制 約 下 において 選 択 するためのソリ ューションとして 本 論 では RTO と CRT のギャップ 対 応 策 の 提 案 をしている ギ ャップ 対 応 策 とは CRT が RTO に 対 して 超 過 する 時 間 を 削 減 する 対 応 策 を 意 味 する このソリューションは 予 算 を 制 約 条 件 として リスクシナリオ 別 の RTO 達 成 件 数 の 最 大 化 (RTO モデル)と CRT 削 減 量 の 最 大 化 (CRT モデル)とは 両 立 し - 4 -

15 ないことを 指 摘 している そのモデル 化 には 0-1 整 数 計 画 を 使 用 し RTO モデル CRT モデル 及 び 両 モデル 併 用 の 提 案 をしている 本 モデルの 有 効 性 の 検 証 のため 架 空 のデータによる 数 値 実 験 を 行 っている この 分 野 の 先 行 研 究 が 限 定 的 であるため 本 論 は RTO 対 応 策 選 択 問 題 研 究 の 先 鞭 をなすものと 考 えて いる 最 後 に BCM 方 法 研 究 の 今 後 の 方 向 を 述 べている - 5 -

16 1. Introduction 1.1 Scope of this Study The recent trend of Business Continuity Management (BCM) 1) practice and research is the synchronization of the complex BCM for a single organization and BCM for multiple organizations trends. BCM for a single organization is the conventional BCM practiced in private organizations and government offices, whereas. BCM for multiple organizations refers to BCM in organizations grouped within the same district and port and harbor organizations. Even if organizations did not directly sustain damage during the Great East Japan Earthquake, their businesses were frequently interrupted because of disruptions in the supply chain. The cause of these disruptions can be attributed to the diamond structure of supply chain, which is widely recognized as vulnerability in Japan s industry structure. The diamond structure refers to the phenomenon that each process is concentrated at a specific supplier in the upper process of that product against the buyer s will. Therefore, it is becoming essential that the supply chain be considered even for BCM for a single organization. BCM for a single organization must thus evolve into a complex system.[1] In 2004, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) conducted the Study for disaster-safe town planning by public-private cooperation: Model project committee for Otemachi, Marunouchi, and Yurakucho district. In the committee, District Continuity Plan (DCP) was proposed by Prof. Koide Osamu of Tokyo University. According to Maruya [2], DCP is based on the following basic view: The survival of only my own organization is meaningless unless the district survives. For example, an organization and its district were badly damaged by the tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Although the organization managed to recover, it was unable to obtain any orders because the district in which it operated had not yet recovered. The above-mentioned recent trends can be considered as the necessary evolution process of BCM. As the scope of this study, the author determines the BCM for a single organization that increases complexity by, acknowledging - 6 -

17 recent trends in the practice of and conventional research on BCM. It is because there are lots of problems to solve even in BCM for a single organization. 1.2 Objectives of this Study The UK-based Business Continuity Institute (BCI), the US-based DRI International (DRII), and the Japan-based Business Continuity Advancement Organization (BCAO) are non-profit organizations (volunteer organizations) that have significantly contributed to the diffusion of BCM.[3] The Japan Cabinet Office s Survey of the business continuity activities of organizations 2011 identifies the following problems or issues in developing BCP. In the case of large organizations, 47 % of organizations developing BCP and organizations with a BCP development schedule answered that they do not have the required skills and know-how needed to develop BCP. Response rates of medium-sized companies were the highest, at 50.3%. The author assumes that a Business Impact Analysis (BIA) 2) and Risk Assessment (RA) 3), as the required core skills and know-how, are included in the survey s skills and know-how. Therefore, this study aims to increase further the effectiveness of BIA and RA. RA is conducted on key businesses determined by the BIA, and a risk measures plan is then developed on basis of the RA result. As described above, BIA and RA are considered to be closely related. Hence, this study treats BIA and RA as a pair of methods. 1.3 Assumed Disasters and Accidents in this Study Although it is important that the organizations in Japan that experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake assume earthquakes as a threat in terms of the BCM s assumed disasters and accidents, this may undervalue other disasters and accidents. If an organization develops BCM based on an assumption of earthquakes as the core threat, this may give rise to the same unexpected events that were experienced during the Great East Japan Earthquake. Appendix 20) lists disasters and accidents that occurred over the past five years, primarily using the homepage of Fire and Disaster Management Agency on Oct. 1, Appendix 20) does not, however, include secondary disasters. Fig.1-1 illustrates the number of occurrences of each type of disasters and accidents

18 Fig.1-1 illustrates eight types of disasters and accidents that may affect an organizations Business Continuity, namely earthquakes, infrastructure-related accidents, sow damage, typhoon, heavy rain, wind gusts, accidents in organizations, and infection. In addition, it can be understood that BCM assumes the heaviest possible damage. Table 1-1 indicates the overwhelmingly heavy damages sustained after the mega earthquake (the Great East Japan Earthquake). It was the biggest disaster in 600 years. However, although disasters and accidents are less destructive than earthquakes, they occur more frequently. Disasters and accidents that have occurred over the past five years are listed in Table 1-1. Fig.1-1 Disasters and accidents over the past five years a) Over the past five years, four organization accidents have occurred: explosion-fire at Tosoh Corporation manufacturing facility (2011), explosion-fire at Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. factory (2012), asphalt spill at Cosmo Oil Co., Ltd. (2012), and explosion-fire at Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. (2012). These accidents disrupted business, and negatively affected the profit-loss account and supply chains. b) Over the past five years, four organization accidents have occurred: explosion-fire at Tosoh Corporation manufacturing facility (2011), explosion-fire at Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. factory (2012), asphalt spill at - 8 -

19 Cosmo Oil Co., Ltd. (2012), and explosion-fire at Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. (2012). These accidents disrupted business, and negatively affected the profit-loss account and supply chains. c) Aging social infrastructure has been identified as a trigger of the Sasago tunnel collapse accident in Dec The problem of aging infrastructure is a phenomenon currently spreading throughout Japan, and raises an important issue with regard to BCM. d) Regarding infrastructure-related accidents, Yokkaichi s instantaneous voltage drop accident occurred in In Mie Prefecture, the operating and production activities of 109 large-scale plants and buildings were impacted by this accident. This accident also impacted the operating and production activities of 37 large-scale plants and buildings Gifu Prefecture. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider multiple hazards (all hazards) when developing BCM to reduce the occurrence of unexpected events. Table 1-1 Damage of disasters and accidents over the past five years Damages Disasters Earthquakes Infrastructure-re lated accidents Snow damag e Typhoon Heavy rain Wind gusts accidents in organizations Infection Total number of occurrences Dead/missing persons , Injured persons 6, Completely or partially destroyed houses Partially damaged houses 398, ,326 3, , ,048 4, Houses under water 13, ,906 39, Damaged buildings Other buildings public damaged 14, , ,604 1,705 7, Landslide ,086 3, Fire

20 1.4 Effectiveness of BCM A few cases illustrating the effective implementation of BCM by organizations that were affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake are highlighted below.[4][5] Suzuki Kogyo Co. Ltd. (Miyagi Prefecture, waste treatment, recycling and so on) sustained enormous damages to facilities, heavy-duty vehicles, special working vehicles, and suction vehicles, which were flooded and could not be used. Moreover, their two-story office was swept 100 m away. However, after implementing the Business Continuity Plan (BCP) 4), it was reported that multiple Recovery Time Objectives (RTOs) 5) were achieved (except a few) as a result of disaster agreements. TOTO Fine Ceramics LTD. also sustained damages because of the Great East Japan Earthquake. As its headquarters and factory were located in an off-limits area (within a 20km range) of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, staff members were not permitted to enter the buildings. However, as the company transferred the production sites of major products to other sites according to their BCP, they were able to fulfill their supply responsibilities. For Lawson, Inc., business in 900 (10%) shops was disrupted as a result of direct damages sustained in the Great East Japan Earthquake. An oil shortage compounded difficulties with regard to restoring business. The headquarters for disaster control collected oil from distant areas, and provided it to supply chains, because of which 80% of the interrupted 900 shops could restart business. By March 22, 2011, 90% of shops could restart business. At Oil Plant Natori, Inc. (Miyagi Prefecture, waste treatment, conversion of waste cooking oil to fuel and so on) sustained damage to all plants in the tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake. However, because the company transferred its key business to other companies in the industry according to their BCP, business continuity of key business areas was ensured. As soon as Kaisei Corporation (Miyagi Prefecture, general construction industry) was affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, the organization initiated its BCP. However, because the organization s building had collapsed, they established their disaster control headquarters in a temporary tent. Measures

21 for sites during construction and construction properties could be completed within the set RTO. In terms of research, studies conducted by Noda et al.[6], Maruya[2], and Fujimoto[7] evaluation the effectiveness of BCM. Noda et al. developed a BCM questionnaire and analyzed the financial statements of Japan s listed companies. Their study[6] statistically concluded that the forecasting accuracy of organizational performance is not necessarily improved by only disclosing BCP development and that it is possible that organizations that have been able to embody BCP in concrete measures or activities can improve the forecasting accuracy of organizational performance. Maruya[2] explains that an organization can undergo the interruption control effect, the ripple control effect, and the district-influence-reduction effect as economic effects of BCM during disasters and accidents. The interruption control effect ensures that the organization can control business interruption by implementing BCM measures. If business was interrupted, this effect guarantees that the organization restores business before facing a crisis. The ripple control effect controls supply interruption to the supply chain, and purchase interruption from supply chain. The district-influence-reduction effect enhances safety and ensures the retention of employment in the district. However, Maruya points out that it is difficult to implement BCM measures by only applying the cost benefit approach. Fujimoto[7] stated that the Great East Japan Earthquake was the first wide-area mega disaster to occur in a developed country under conditions of global competitiveness. He insists that the organization should aim to balance its competitiveness and robustness. Moreover, to retain competitiveness, he proposes virtual dual sourcing. Maruya s view of the cost benefit approach indicates that the organization cannot completely calculate all benefits of BCM measures. Meanwhile, Fujimoto s view of BCM under global competitive circumstances warns that BCM without management consciousness accompanies the risk of market disappearance. Because studies and other critique denying the effectiveness of BCM could not be found, the social perception of BCM has already been formed. The author acknowledges that as a person engaged in the research and implementation-operation of BCM, the opinions of Maruya and Fujimoto should be respected as fundamental to evaluating the effectiveness of BCM

22 2. Background and Problem formulation 2.1 Background of this Study Business Continuity Management (BCM) 1) aims to ensure that even if an organization were struck by disasters or other accidents, the organizations would maintain its Minimum Business Continuity Objective (MBCO) 6), or that even if operations were disrupted, the organization can recover operations to attain the Recovery Time Objective (RTO) 5). In organizations affected by the September 11 attacks in the US in 2001, the later fates of organizations possessing Business Continuity Plans (BCPs) 4) and those without differed. Consequently, BCM began to attract attention worldwide. For example, Deutsche Bank, New York Branch, switched to the alternative Irish system after their systems were destroyed, and were thus able to approve large amounts of money within a day. Merrill Lynch could switch to the command center of its New Jersey administrative functions within two to three minutes after staff members completed evacuation. These examples illustrate the accomplishments of development and implementation of BCP.[8] Japanese organizations have also experienced disasters such as the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake in 1995, the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake in 2004, the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake in 2007, new influenza in 2009, and the Great East Japan Earthquake in Consequently, Japanese organizations have all been exposed to business continuity crisis. In addition, the Central Disaster Prevention Council published the possibility of the occurrence of Tokyo Inland Earthquakes and Tonankai-Nankai Earthquakes. Consequently, since 2005, guidelines for implementing BCM have been issued by some industries and by the Japanese government. In addition, the international standard for BCM was enacted in In parallel with the abovementioned activities, numerous activities for diffusion and enlightenment have been conducted by non-profit organizations (volunteer organizations), private consulting firms, and government foundations in Japan. A supportive environment for skills and know-how has already been adjusted to implement BCM

23 Results of the BCP Development Rate Survey 2011 (the statistic in parentheses indicates the results for the 2007 survey) by Japan s Cabinet Office are as follows. In the case of large organizations, 46% (19%) have developed BCP. If organizations that are developing BCPs are added to these statistics, the rate becomes 72% (35%). In the case of medium-sized organizations, 21% (12%), have developing BCP. If organizations that are developing BCPs are added, the rate becomes 36% (16%). It thus appears that the diffusion of BCM has steadily progressed in Japan.[9] During peaceful times, it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of BCM that was implemented in the organization. Moreover, the evaluation of BCM theories or methods proposed by researchers is similar. The fact that the effectiveness of BCM can only be evaluated after experiencing disaster or other accidents is a characteristic of BCM study. 2.2 Review of BCP after the Great East Japan Earthquake In performing the BCM study in Japan, it is impossible to avoid the verification of effectiveness of the BCP of companies that experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake. The following describes the verification result. As shown in Table 2-1, three surveys for BCP were conducted from May 2011 to June 2011 by the three organizations. Although layers of respondents and purposes in each survey are different, it is in common that any surveys aim at the performance of the BCP of domestic companies that were affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Therefore, Chapter 2 is utilizing some parts of three surveys transversely. According to Table 2-2, companies that directly or indirectly were damaged by the Great East Japan Earthquake account for more than half of respondents. [10]-[12] As shown in Table 2-3, according to performance surveys of existing BCP, more than 60% of companies that have already created BCP before March 11, 2011 and were affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake answered that although their BCP was effective, their BCP should be improved further in the future.[10]-[12] In the survey of NTT Data, experiences of various unexpected events have been answered as shown in Table 2-4. Companies that do not experience any unexpected event have become a minority

24 Table 2-1 Survey for BCP just after the Great East Japan earthquake Survey bodies Date The number of valid responses NTT Data Institute of Management Consulting, INC June 10th-14th, ,020 Nikkei Personal Computing Mid. May End. June, ,120 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. June 3rd-15th, Table 2-2 Damage survey by three bodies Damage NTT Data NIKKEI PC Nomura Research Damaged companies 68% 86% 55% No damaged companies 32% 14% 44% Total 100% 100% 100% Table 2-3 Performance survey of BCP by three bodies Effectiveness NTT Data NIKKEI PC Nomura Research It was completely effective 34% 13% 7% It was effective but require improvements 63% 65% 78% It wasn't effective at all 3% 8% 15% Unknown 0% 14% 0% Total 100% 100% 100%

25 Table 2-4 Unexpected events after the Great East Japan Earthquake (Multiple choices) Response Unexpected events Rate of Yes Rolling blackouts due to functional decline of power facilities 43.7% Occurrence of people difficult to go to home or work due to functional decline of traffic infrastructure Stagnation of consumption and purchasing power due to excessive self-restraint mood Total volume control of power due to functional decline of power facilities Lack of supplies and fuel due to functional decline of supply chain Logistics failure due to functional decline of transport infrastructure (roads, railways and airports) 33.8% 31.9% 26.3% 26.1% 22.8% Power failures due to functional decline of power facilities 22.5% Interruption of information communication due to functional decline of communication infrastructure Inability of water supply and drainage due to functional decline of water and sewage Logistics failure due to functional decline of transport infrastructure (harbors) 22.3% 9.3% 8.4% Fuel supply failures due to functional decline of city gas 2.6% The others 1.7% There were no unexpected events in particular 13.6% The survey is quoted from NTT Data s News release [10]. 2.3 Review of Conventional Studies The purpose of Section 2.3 is to review conventional studies. Understanding the following concept of time is needed to review those in Section The Concept of Time Fig.2-1 expresses typical situations before and after improvements in Maximum Tolerable of Disruption (MTPD) 7), RTO, and Current Recoverable Time (CRT) 8). The upper part of Fig.2-1 represents a state in which RTO and CRT should be less; however, the lower part represents the ideal state after the shortening of RTO and CRT. Although it would be ideal for the length of RTO to

26 be shortened less than MTPD, and the length of CRT to be shortened less than RTO, realization of such an ideal state would incur some improvement costs to the organization. Fig.2-1 The concept of time This figure is quoted from [13] Fig.2-2 The RTO decision process

27 In the RTO decision process, the above-mentioned concept of time, have a close relationship. The RTO decision process is shown in Fig.2-2. After measuring Gap Time between MTPD and CRT, the management sets the RTO. As shown in Fig.2-2, measuring the Gap Time between MTPD and CRT is important before making the RTO decision. After which, measuring the Gap Time between RTO and CRT becomes important in achieving the RTO. As shown in Fig.2-2, the RTO decision process is the process to decide a final conclusion of RTO, considering both the MTPD and the CRT.[2] Review of Conventional Studies for this Study In Section 2.3.2, the 62 studies mentioning BCM are reviewed. As shown in Table 2-5, the conventional studies surveyed by the author were published widely in seven institutions. The results of this survey indicate that BCM is interdisciplinary. These studies are described in [14]-[75]. Table 2-5 Conventional studies in each academic society Academic societies Number of studies Japan Society of Civil Engineers 32 Institute for Social Safety Science 16 Architectural Institute of Japan 3 Japan Telework Society 2 Human Interface Society 1 Japan Society for Safety Engineering 1 Information Processing Society of Japan 1 The others 6 Total 62 This Table is the survey result at Oct. 1, According to Table 2-6 and Fig.2-3, 63% of conventional studies assume earthquakes as the disasters and accidents considered in BCM, while 23% consider multiple hazards. Multiple hazards refer to all hazards, or both natural hazards and any other hazards except natural hazards

28 Table 2-6 Assumed disasters and accidents in conventional studies Types of disasters and accidents Number of studies Earthquake 39 Multiple hazards 14 Natural disasters 7 IT failure 1 Hurricane 1 Total 62 This Table is the survey result at Oct. 1, Fig.2-3 Types of disasters and accidents in conventional studies According to Table 2-7, the organizations researched in conventional studies of BCM can be categorized into ten types, namely commercial companies, construction companies, corporations within the district, manufacturing companies, supply chains, organizations, small and medium enterprises, universities, local governments, and ports and harbors. In addition, four types of object resources of BCM are identified, namely roads, infrastructure, staff members, and information processing systems. According to Table 2-8, as per the author s survey, 12 conventional studies refer to Business Impact Analysis (BIA) 2) ([16][17][45][57][61][62][63][65][66] [67][69][72]). Masuda et al.[63] contribute to the study of BIA methods because the study incorporates a HAZard and OPerability study (HAZOP) 9) into the development of BCM for financial institutions. The remaining ten studies do not propose BIA methods

29 Table 2-7 Objects of conventional studies Objects Number of studies Commercial companies 10 Construction companies 7 Roads 7 Infrastructure 6 Corporations in the district 6 Staff members 5 Manufacturing companies 5 Supply chains 4 Organizations 3 Small and Medium Enterprises 3 Universities 2 Local Governments 2 Ports and harbors 1 Information processing systems 1 Total 62 This Table is the survey result at Oct. 1, According to Table 2-8, 18 conventional studies focus on RTO. Of these seven determine RTO and refer to measures to achieve RTO ([20][32][36][38][57][61][63]). Morishita et al.[36] derive the following time series. First is the number of staff available during a state of emergency against the number of required staff members. Second is the total and period of staff member shortages against the number of required staff members. The study[36] tries to review the RTO as measures to relieve the shortage of required staff members. Of 62 conventional studies, the study[36] is the only valuable one as it aims to achieve RTO by reviewing RTO. The study[36] that tries to achieve the RTO by prolonging a RTO retrogresses from achievement of MTPD. The studies of Sakaguchi[20], Kasubuchi et al.[32], and Kuwata et al.[38] focus on measures to reduce CRT to achieve the determined RTO. Sakaguchi s study[20] is superior in that prepares measures based on the specific operations of gas companies. However, the study[20] does not describe how to reduce CRT, and thus, cannot predict the achievable degree of RTO through advance measures

30 Kasubuchi et al. [32] determine bottleneck facilities of earthquake-resistant facilities through a score method risk analysis, and propose methods to prepare advance measures. Although the study[32] can contribute to the achievement of RTO, it[32] does not describe the degree to which advance measures can improve RTO. The study by Kuwata et al.[38] is modeled using a Bayesian network in the decision-making process, and is considered an ambitious study that applies the theory of probability to BCM. It does not, however, explain multiple cases of evidence-estimated probability for nodes. In addition, the CRT reduced through the measures proposed in the study[38] to achieve RTO are not mentioned. Okamoto et al.[57] determine the Critical Path (CP) 10) using the Critical Path Method (CPM) 11), and reduce the required CP time by targeting disaster response operations to achieve RTO. However, the study[57] does not describe the amount of time that the CP measures can reduce to achieve RTO. Yamagishi et al.[61] propose an algorithm to accurately estimate recovery time by applying Event Tree Analysis (ETA) 12) to determine a reliable RTO. However, the study[61] does not describe how to use this accurate recovery time to determine RTO. The conventional studies mentioning CRT are reviewed as [15][16][17] [18][47][57][61]. However, the conventional study mentioning the estimation procedure of CRT is only the study[61]. As far as the author could survey, 13 conventional studies refer to Risk Assessment (RA) 3) ([20][26][45][55][57][61][62][63][64][66][69][70][75]). Of these, studies focusing on RA methods include those by Mano et al.[26], Nishikawa et al.[55][75], and Masuda et al.[63]. Mano et al.[26] develop a support system for the BCP for construction companies. Although the specifications required by this system are the type and explanation of each risk, which are entered into the system, the method for utilizing these specifications after data entry is not described. Nishikawa et al.[55][75] develop a risk curve through a Monte Carlo Simulation 13) to determine the degree of earthquake risk for supply chains. The studies[55][75] are limited in that only modeled supply chains are the objects of the research and the only disasters and accidents considered are earthquakes. Masuda et al.[63] are the first to considers BIA-HAZOP as a risk analysis method

31 Table 2-8 BCM factors mentioned in conventional studies BIA Key business MTPD RTO CRT Scenario RA Multi- Purpose RA Number of studies Composition rate [16] [14] [30] [14] [15] [14] [20] - [17] [15] [42] [20] [16] [54] [26] [45] [18] [45] [32] [17] [55] [45] [57] [19] [55] [36] [18] [61] [55] [61] [24] [58] [38] [47] [62] [57] [62] [25] [59] [42] [57] [63] [61] [63] [27] [62] [49] [61] [69] [62] [65] [30] [63] [57] [70] [63] [66] [36] [64] [58] [64] [67] [38] [59] [66] [69] [40] [61] [69] [72] [43] [62] [70] [45] [63] [75] [46] [64] [48] [66] [50] [67] [57] [69] [58] [72] [59] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [71] [72] % 34% 11% 22% 8% 10% 16% 0% This Table is the survey result at Oct. 1,

32 The duration of the author s survey did not reveal, studies of Multi-Purpose Risk Assessment System (MUPRAS) including BCM and other management systems. Moreover, studies on solutions for problems in selecting risk measures were not found. 2.4 Problem Statement and Research Contributions In Section 2.4, problem statement and research contributions are described on the basis of Sections 2.2 and 2.3. a) Chronological Business Impact Analysis According to Section 2.3, although there have been conventional studies that referred to BIA, such studies are very few. Therefore, BIA still depends considerably on experimental rule. This is one of the problems for future BCM. To the author s knowledge, no conventional studies have performed a chronological business impact analysis. Therefore, this study aims to contribute to the body of research by incorporating a scientific approach to chronological business impact analysis. b) Unexpected Risks In Section 2.2, as the result of the review of BCP after the Great East Japan Earthquake, improving BCP and strengthening the ability to respond to unexpected events became priorities for future BCM. This study aims to help strengthen the ability to respond to the unexpected events mentioned in the RA study. In addition, the author believes that strengthening the ability to respond to such events can help improve BCP overall. The following two methods can be considered for responding to unexpected events. One is a method that reflects new risks on risk measures plan as soon as unexpected risks are perceived by the organization, even when such risks have been previously overlooked. The other is a method that is effective, even when unexpected risks do occur. This study intends to address both methods. c) Estimation of CRT and Gap Measures According to Section 2.3, although there have been some conventional studies that aimed to achieve RTO by reducing CRT, there are very few conventional studies that attempt to determine the CRT reduction amount by performance measures. Determining the CRT reduction amount provides important information for investment requests for BCM measures to top management, and is an important problem for BCM. This study aims to determine the effect of CRT reduction measures against RTO and to help develop a model that can

33 identify gap measures between RTO and CRT for top management. To identify the effect of CRT reduction, estimation procedure of CRT must be developed too. 2.5 Overview of the Thesis An overview of the thesis is shown in Fig.2-4. Introduction (Chapter 1) Background and Problem formulation (Chapter 2) CRT Estimation Procedure of CRT (Chapter 3) Development of Period-dividing methodology for Business Impact Analysis by Hierarchical Clustering (Chapter 4) RTO Key businesses Development of a Multi-purpose Risk Assessment System for Multiple Management System Standards (Chapter 5) Risk scenarios Development of the Gap Measuring methodology between Recovery Time Objective and Current Recoverable Time in Business Continuity Management (Chapter 6) Discussion (Chapter 7) Conclusions and Recommendations (Chapter 8) Fig.2-4 Overview of the Thesis

34 In Chapter 1, the research scope and objectives are described. In Chapter 2, BCP of companies that have experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake and relevant conventional studies are reviewed. In Chapter 3, the estimation procedure of CRT is developed, which is utilized in the BIA (Chapter 4) and gap measures (Chapter 6). In Chapter 4, the period-dividing method for chronological BIA is developed. In Chapter 5, a multi-purpose RA system is developed, which utilizes key businesses as an outcome of Chapter 4. In Chapter 6, a model for selecting gap measures between RTO and CRT is developed, which utilizes key businesses as an outcome of Chapter 4. In Chapter 7, the results of this study are discussed. In Chapter 8, the conclusions, recommendations, and future directions for research are presented. 2.6 Published Papers related to the Thesis As shown in Table 2-9, peer-reviewed research papers written by the author are related to each chapter of this study. No. Published Date Table 2-9 Published Papers related to the Thesis Related Chapters Papers 1 Published in June , 3 Treatment of Unexpected Risk on Business Continuity Management Learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake Journal of Disaster Research Vol.7, No. 4, pp Published in November Study of period-dividing method for business impact analysis by hierarchical clustering International Journal of Japan Association for Management Systems Vo.5, No. 1, pp Published in October Designing the Concept of Multi Purpose Risk Assessment System Proceedings of 12th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Conference, pp (Presented in Beijing) 4 Being published in January 2014 has been determined 5 Published in July Development of a Multi-Purpose Risk Assessment System for Multiple Management Systems Standards Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association Vol.64 No.4E Study on the Gap Measures between Recovery Time Objective and Current Recoverable Time in Business Continuity Management Journal of Institute for Social Safety Science, No.20, pp

35 3. Estimation Procedure of Current Recoverable Time Abstract An estimation procedure of Current Recoverable Time (CRT) 8) is proposed as a slution to the problem stated in Section 2.4c). The estimation procedure of CRT can help studies in those chapters because Chapters 4 and 6 use the values of the CRT. The method that is utilized in the estimation procedure is the pre-rate sheet method, which is one of the standard time measurement procedures. 3.1 Background and Objectives of Chapter 3 The development of estimation procedure of Current Recoverable Time (CRT) was regarded as one of the problems in Section 2.4c). As shown in Section 2.3.2, the conventional studies of estimation procedure of CRT are very few. It is because most of the conventional studies have assumed that CRT has been known. Chapter 4 of Business Impact Analysis (BIA) 2) and Chapter 6 of the Gap measures need the value of CRT. Therefore, Chapter 3 aims to develop the estimation procedure of CRT. 3.2 Meaning of CRT The CRT means the recovery time required for recovery after disasters and accidents, which is the time estimated at present. CRT is closely related to Recovery Time Objective (RTO) 5) and Maximum Tolerable Period of Disruption (MTPD) 7). Their relationships are described in Section