Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 680 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 20% What s Changed? Target EPS FY16E EPS FY17E Rating Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Quarterly Performance FY16 FY15 YoY (%) FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue 12,567 11,816 6.4 12,371 1.6 EBIT 2,408 2,306 4.4 2,402 0.2 EBIT (%) 19.2 19.5-36 bps 19.4-26 bps PAT 2,235 2,085 7.2 2,188 2.2 Key Financials Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 43,763 47,318 50,886 55,210 EBITDA 10,046 10,825 11,713 12,807 Net Profit 7,797 8,653 9,134 9,982 EPS ( ) 31.7 35.1 37.0 40.5 Valuation summary FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E P/E 17.9 16.2 15.3 14.0 Target P/E 21.5 19.4 18.4 16.8 EV / EBITDA 12.7 11.6 10.4 9.1 P/BV 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.7 RoNW (%) 22.7 21.2 19.7 19.1 RoCE (%) 25.6 23.0 22.6 22.4 Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization ( Crore) 139,271.4 Total Debt (Sept-15) ( Crore) 9,931.1 Cash and Investments (Sept-15) ( Crore) 22,687.6 EV ( Crore) 126,514.9 52 week H/L 678 / 513 Equity capital 491.3 Face value 2 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M TCS (3.4) 0.2 (0.3) 6.8 Infosys 8.2 9.6 0.2 34.3 Wipro 1.4 6.2 (3.7) 5.5 HCL Tech (0.5) 7.9 12.9 30.9 Research Analysts Abhishek Shindadkar abhishek.shindadkar@icicisecurities.com Middling October 23, 2015 Wipro Ltd (Wipro) 567 IT services constant currency (CC) revenues grew 3.1% QoQ (1.5 to 3.5% guidance) while dollar revenues grew 2.1% QoQ to $1,831.9 million (2% QoQ, $1,830 million estimate) IT services EBIT margins declined 25 bps QoQ to 20.7%, in line with our estimate Reported PAT of 2,235 crore was modestly above our 2,160 crore estimate led by higher other income Wipro gave Q3FY16E revenue growth guidance of $1,841 million to $1,878 million (0.5 to 2.5% QoQ growth) In line quarter The management commentary on the demand environment continues to be encouraging driven by receding headwinds in key verticals (energy, natural resources, telecom & healthcare) and likely recovery in top accounts that have been laggards. From a quarterly perspective, Wipro delivered 3.1% constant currency revenue growth (1.5 to 3.5% guidance) led by broad-based across verticals (key verticals telecom, finance solutions, manufacturing, retail, consumer goods, transportation and healthcare grew above company average). Americas (3.6%), India and Middle East (2.7%), APAC (5.1%) led across geographies while Europe rebounded (1.4% vs. -5.3% decline in ). Continued decline in top customer revenues was noteworthy against anticipated recovery in. Wipro guided for 0.5-2.5% constant currency revenue growth in Q3FY16E led by deal ramp-ups in momentum verticals, and expected growth in top clients. We maintain our 5.5% FY16E $ revenue growth estimate given company reiterated its H2 better than H1 commentary. Wage hikes, utilisation impact margins in At 20.7%, IT services EBIT margins declined 25 bps QoQ, in line with our 20.8% estimate led by two month wage hike impact, cross-currency and lower utilisation partially offset by the rupee, productivity gains driven by internal initiatives. Consolidated EBIT margins declined 10 bps QoQ to 19.3%. We expect FY16E IT services EBIT margins to decline 40 bps YoY to 21.7% primarily led by investments and slower revenue growth. Client metric stable but could have been better Clients contributing $50-75 million increased by one QoQ to 14 while >$100 million continues to be stagnant at 10 since Q3FY13 (barring Q3FY14 and Q4FY15, which saw addition of one client) and captures the weakness in top 10 customers during the same period ($362.7 million in FY16 vs. $353.3 million in Q3FY13). Sequentially, clients contributing >$1 million declined by four, while those contributing $75-100 million, $20-50 million, $10-20 million and $5-10 million in revenues on an LTM basis was flat, declined by two, increased by four, and declined by three, respectively. Customers in $3-5 million category increased by seven while those in $1-3 million declined by 11. Modest valuations continue to dictate BUY We estimate Wipro will report slower revenue and PAT CAGR of 8% and 7% during FY15-17E (average 21.8% IT services EBIT margins in FY16-17E), vs. 12%, 14%, reported in FY10-15 (average 22.1% margins), respectively, led by weak client mining and softness in energy vertical (~15% of revenues). We continue to value the stock at 16.8x FY17E EPS of 40.5 to arrive at our 680 target price and maintain our BUY rating. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research
Variance analysis FY16 FY16E FY15 YoY (%) FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Revenue 12,566.8 12,780.0 11,816.1 6.4 12,370.6 1.6 Consolidated revenues grew 1.6% QoQ led by 4% growth in IT services business, but were marginally below our 3.3% growth estimate Employee expenses 8,229.4 8,439.4 7,779.1 5.8 8,142.0 1.1 Gross Margin 4,337.4 4,340.6 4,037.0 7.4 4,228.6 2.6 Gross margin (%) 34.5 34.0 34.2 35 bps 34.2 33 bps Selling & marketing costs 870.8 810.1 762.8 14.2 804.4 8.3 G&A expenses 684.7 710.4 660.5 3.7 685.3-0.1 EBITDA 2,781.9 2,780.1 2,613.7 6.4 2,739.0 1.6 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.1 21.8 22.1 2 bps 22.1 0 bps Depreciation 353.0 345.1 307.5 14.8 336.7 4.8 EBIT 2,428.9 2,435.0 2,306.2 5.3 2,402.3 1.1 EBIT Margin (%) 19.3 19.1 19.5-19 bps 19.4-9 bps Two month wage hike impact, cross-currency and lower utilisation were margin headwinds while rupee, productivity were tailwinds Other income 460.5 390.0 412.0 11.8 395.6 16.4 PBT 2,889.4 2,825.0 2,718.2 6.3 2,797.9 3.3 Tax paid 648.6 649.7 619.9 4.6 594.5 9.1 Reported PAT modestly higher led by higher other income PAT 2,235.4 2,160.0 2,084.8 7.2 2,187.7 2.2 Key Metrics Closing employees 168,396 163,500 154,297 9.1 161,789 4.1 Headcount grew by 6607 QoQ TTM voluntary Attrition (%) 16.4 16.5 16.5-10 bps 16.4 0 bps LTM attrition was flat sequentially Utilisation ex support (%) 77.2 79.5 77.5-30 bps 79.4-220 bps Utilisation declined 220 bps QoQ. However, ex-trainees increased 40 bps Average $/ 65.7 64.9 61.7 6.6 64.5 1.9 Change in estimates FY16E FY17E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 50,886 50,886 0.0 55,210 55,210 0.0 FY16E growth could be modest and likely lower than peers EBITDA 11,713 11,713 0.0 12,807 12,807 0.0 EBITDA Margin (%) 23.0 23.0 0 bps 20.5 20.5 0 bps Wage hikes, promotions, visa and investments could hurt margins PAT 9,134 9,134 0.0 9,982 9,982 0.0 EPS ( ) 37.0 37.0 0.0 40.5 40.5 0.0 Assumptions Current Earlier FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Closing employees 146,053 158,217 165,717 173,917 165,717 173,917 TTM voluntary Attrition (% 15.1 16.5 16.5 16.0 16.5 16.0 Utilisation ex support (%) 73.0 76.8 80.3 81.0 80.3 81.0 Average $/ 60.3 62.1 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.5 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2
Company Analysis Generally in-line quarter In line FY16 earnings and soft Q3FY16E guidance (0.5% to 2.5% QoQ growth, $1,841 million to $1,878 million) imply FY16E growth could range high single digits. However, management commentary on the demand environment continues to be encouraging driven by receding headwinds in key verticals (energy, natural resources, telecom and healthcare) and recovery in top accounts, which have been laggards. From a quarterly perspective, Wipro delivered 3.1% constant currency revenue growth (1.5 to 3.5% guidance) led by broad based across verticals key verticals telecom (4.4%), finance solutions (3.1%), manufacturing (3.6%), retail, consumer goods and transportation (3.5%) and healthcare (4.2%) grew above company average. Americas (3.6%), India and Middle East (2.7%), APAC (5.1%) led across geographies while Europe rebounded (1.4% vs. -5.3% decline in ). Within service lines, IMS (1.8% QoQ growth in reported currency), Wipro analytics (3.3%), BPO (7.1%), product engineering (4.9%), R&D business (4.1%) and consulting (13.8%) led while application services (0.7%) continues to be weak. Exhibit 1: Dollar revenues may grow at 7.2% CAGR during FY15-17E $ million 11000 9000 7000 5000 18.9 13.4 5.0 6.4 1.5 4391 5221 5921 6218 6618 9.6 8.6 7.0 3.2 7.0 7082 3.1 3.4 9.0 5.5 7470 8140 20 10 0-10 % 3000 1740 1772 1795 1775 1794 1832-20 1000-30 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY16E FY17E Dollar revenue Growth, YoY Exhibit 2: Wipro growth vs. Nasscom guidance may lag Nasscom growth in FY16E 50 40 30 41.6 29.0 % 20 10 0 16.0 5.5 1.5 18.9 18.7 16.5 13.4 13.0 13.0 13.0 10.2 5.0 6.4 7.0 5.5-10 -5.4 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Growth, YoY NASSCOM guidance ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3
Client metric stable but could have been better Clients contributing $50-75 million increased by one QoQ to 14 while >$100 million continues to be stagnant at 10 since Q3FY13 (barring Q3FY14 and Q4FY15 that saw addition of one client) and captures the weakness in top 10 customers during the same period ($362.7 million in FY16 vs. $353.3 million in Q3FY13). Sequentially, clients contributing >$1 million declined by four, while those contributing $75-100 million, $20-50 million, $10-20 million and $5-10 million in revenues on an LTM basis was flat, declined by two, increased by four, and declined by three, respectively. Customers in $3-5 million category increased by seven while those in $1-3 million declined by 11. Recall, Wipro added 113 customers to the $1 million bucket since FY11 while improving win rates led to addition of 194 new accounts in FY15 vs. average 163 in FY10-14. Mining was also flat QoQ as revenue/client metric was at $1.67 million in vs. $1.68 million in and $1.68 million in Q4 but is still higher than its () FY10-15 average of $1.63 million. Exhibit 3: Sequentially, clients contributing >$1 million in revenues declined by 4 600 500 400 406 429 475 490 501 511 524 526 542 542 537 533 x 300 200 100 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 $1 million+ clients Q3 Q4 FY15 Wage hikes, utilisation impact margins in At 20.7%, IT services EBIT margins declined 25 bps QoQ, in line with our 20.8% estimate led by two month wage hike impact, cross-currency and lower utilisation partially offset by the rupee, productivity gains driven by internal initiatives. Consolidated EBIT margins declined 10 bps QoQ to 19.3%. FY16 IT services margin profile of 20.7% is lower than its () FY10-15 average of 21.5% primarily led by higher business investments, higher onsite mix (53.9% vs. average 53.4%) and slower revenue growth partially offset by rupee and utilisation (77.2% vs. average 75.8%). We expect FY16E IT services EBIT margins to decline 40 bps YoY to 21.7% primarily led by investments and slower revenue growth. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4
Exhibit 4: IT services margins decline 25 bps QoQ and were in line with our estimate 25 23 21 23.4 22.7 20.8 20.7 22.6 22.8 22.0 21.8 22.0 22.1 21.0 20.7 21.7 21.8 % 19 17 15 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 EBIT margin (IT services) FY15 FY16E FY17E [ Sequential decline in utilisation could be worrying Utilisation (ex-support) declined 140 bps QoQ to 77.2 vs. 79.4% in. Noticeably, utilisation is now down 30 bps YoY despite an increase of 350 bps in H1CY15. At 16.4%, LTM voluntary attrition was flat sequentially while quarterly annualised attrition jumped 40 bps QoQ to 16.8% vs. 16.4% in likely due to seasonality. Exhibit 5: At 16.4%, though attrition was stable QoQ, it is highest since FY13 (15.6%) 25 22 22.7 % 19 16 13 12.1 17.5 13.7 15.1 16.1 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.0 10 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 FY15 FY16E FY17E TTM voluntary Attrition Exhibit 6: Sequential decline in utilisation may be worrying 85 % 82 79 76 78.8 77.0 75.4 76.0 77.5 75.9 78.0 76.8 79.4 77.2 80.3 81.0 73 73.2 73.0 70 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q3 Q4 Utilisation ex support (%) FY15 FY16E FY17E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5
Outlook and valuation Wipro delivered in line FY16 quarterly earnings while guidance was okay. Constant currency revenue growth was broad based across verticals (key verticals telecom, finance solutions, manufacturing, retail, consumer goods and transportation and healthcare grew above company average) while Americas, India, APAC, BPO, analytics, product engineering, R&D and consulting were notable growth drivers. Wipro expects recovery to accelerate in H2FY16E and has guided for 0.5-2.5% constant currency revenue growth in Q3FY16E led by deal ramp-ups and expected growth in top clients. We estimate Wipro will report slower revenue and PAT CAGR of 8% and 7% during FY15-17E (average 21.8% IT services EBIT margins in FY16-17E), vs. 12%, 14%, reported in FY10-15 (average 22.1% margins), respectively, led by weak client mining and softness in energy vertical (~15% of revenues). We continue to value the stock at 16.8x FY17E EPS of 40.5 to arrive at our 680 target price and maintain our BUY rating. Exhibit 7: One year forward rolling PE 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Price 24 20 16 12 8 Exhibit 8: Valuation Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) (%) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY14 43,763 16.9 31.7 26.9 17.9 12.7 22.7 25.6 FY15E 47,318 8.1 35.1 10.8 16.2 11.6 21.2 23.0 FY16E 50,886 7.5 37.0 5.6 15.3 10.4 19.7 22.6 FY17E 55,210 8.5 40.5 9.3 14.0 9.1 19.1 22.4 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6
Company snapshot 900 800 Target price : 680 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Jun-11 Acquires the commercial business services business unit of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Nov-12 Approves demerger of consumer care, infrastructure engineering and medical business into a separate unlisted company, Wipro Enterprises Dec-12 Announces acquisition of LD Waxsons group with skincare brands Bio-essence and Ginvera for $ 144 million. Apr-13 Demerges Wipro Enterprises and Wipro IT business; possible dilution of shareholder stake expected May-13 Acquires minority stake in Opera Solutions, an enterprise software service provider, for $30 million Jul-13 Reports higher-than-expected dollar revenue guidance for FY14 Dec-13 Announces acquisition of Opus Capital Markets Consultants, a mortgage due diligence and risk management services provider, for $75 million. Apr-14 Delivers yet another below-industry average dollar revenue growth for FY14 and guides for 0-2% growth for FY15E Jul-14 Signs 10-year, $1.2 billion outsourcing deal with ATCO, a Canada-based utilities firm. Wipro to also acquire ATCO's subsidiary, I-Tek for $195 million Jul-14 Reports in line quarter (1.2% dollar revenue growth) but below industry average. Guides for 0.7-4% growth during FY15E Jan-15 Signs multi-year, $400 million deal with Swiss engineering company, ABB for application maintenance and infrastructure services as per media sources Apr-15 Delivers mixed set of Q4FY15 earnings. Revenue growth was below our estimates while margins surprised positively Jul-15 Delivers steady FY16. Constant currency revenues were in line with estimates while dollar revenues were higher led by a favourable cross currency Oct-15 Reports in line FY16 quarter while guidance was okay. IT services $ revenues grew 2.1% QoQ to $1,831.9 million, inline our growth estimate Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) 1 Premji (Azim Hasham) 30-Jun-15 55.42 1,368.9 0.0 2 Azim Premji Trust 30-Jun-15 17.40 429.7 0.0 3 Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Jun-15 1.90 46.9 4.9 4 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Aug-15 1.06 26.1 0.8 5 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 30-Sep-15 0.63 15.6-1.1 6 HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited 31-Aug-15 0.51 12.6-0.2 7 APG Asset Management 31-Mar-15 0.46 11.4 4.5 8 Azim Premji Foundation (India) Pvt. Ltd. 30-Jun-15 0.44 10.8 0.0 9 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 30-Sep-15 0.44 10.8 0.6 10 HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-Aug-15 0.39 9.6-1.3 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Jun-15 Sep-15 Promoter 73.43 73.40 73.39 73.38 73.36 FII 9.09 8.87 10.71 10.26 10.68 DII 4.55 4.71 4.36 4.86 4.61 Others 12.91 13.20 12.93 11.50 11.35 Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Life Insurance Corporation of India 45.65m 4.87m Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) -44.09m -5.01m APG Asset Management 41.89m 4.52m Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Ltd. -24.68m -2.87m Nordea Funds Oy 11.91m 1.39m Franklin Advisers, Inc. -18.18m -1.70m PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V. 10.91m 1.21m Principal Global Investors (Equity) -14.02m -1.39m BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited 10.62m 1.20m BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. -10.31m -1.13m S R t ICICIdi t R h ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7
Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total Revenues 43,763 47,318 50,886 55,210 Growth (%) 16.9 8.1 7.5 8.5 COGS 29,549 32,128 34,495 37,370 Other Expenditure 4,168 1,760 4,678 5,033 EBITDA 10,046 10,825 11,713 12,807 Growth (%) 22.0 7.8 8.2 9.3 Depreciation 1,111 1,282 1,374 1,491 Other Income 1,454 1,986 2,065 2,080 Exchange difference 347 364 150 170 F.income (289) (360) (470) (355) Pft. from associates - - - - PBT 10,100 11,168 11,934 13,041 Growth (%) 28.5 10.6 6.9 9.3 Tax 2,260 2,462 2,745 2,999 PAT before Minority int, 7,840 8,706 9,189 10,042 Minority int. 44 53 55 60 PAT 7,797 8,653 9,134 9,982 Growth (%) 27.1 11.0 5.6 9.3 EPS 31.7 35.1 37.0 40.5 EPS (Growth %) 26.9 10.8 5.6 9.3 Cash flow statement Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E PAT before minority int. 7,840 8,706 9,189 10,042 Depreciation 1,111 1,282 1,374 1,491 (inc)/dec in Current Assets (2,358) (1,523) (1,325) (1,922) (inc)/dec in current Liabilities 1,330 725 387 442 Taxes paid (2,177) (2,427) (2,745) (2,999) CF from operations 6,789 7,826 8,031 8,328 Other Investments 505 (1,454) 2,065 2,080 (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (782) (1,127) (1,400) (1,600) CF from investing Activities (277) (2,582) 665 480 Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 1 1 - - Inc / (Dec) in sec.loan Funds (1,077) 2,088 (1,000) (1,000) Dividend & Divendend tax (2,421) (3,041) (4,092) (4,411) CF from Financial Activities (3,497) (852) (5,092) (5,411) Exchange rate differences (7) 59 - - Opening cash balance 8,412 11,420 15,894 19,498 Closing cash 11,420 15,871 19,498 22,894 Balance sheet Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Equity 493 494 494 494 Reserves & Surplus 33,857 40,305 45,817 51,742 Networth 34,350 40,798 46,310 52,236 Minority Interest 139 165 220 280 Debt - long term 1,091 1,271 1,271 1,271 Debt - short term 4,068 6,621 5,621 4,621 Non-current liabilities 1,005 1,367 1,367 1,367 Trade payables 5,226 5,875 6,033 6,253 Current liabilities & provisions 4,352 3,908 4,136 4,359 Source of funds 50,230 60,003 64,958 70,385 Goodwill 6,342 6,808 6,808 6,808 Intangible Assets 194 793 795 803 PPE 5,145 5,421 5,445 5,547 O.non current assets 2,814 2,946 2,946 2,946 Investments 268 387 387 387 Debtors 8,539 9,153 9,807 10,764 Cash & Cash equivalents 11,420 15,894 19,498 22,894 Investments - short term 6,422 5,899 5,899 5,899 O.current assets 9,088 12,704 13,374 14,339 Application of funds 50,230 60,003 64,958 70,385. Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Per share data ( ) EPS 31.7 35.1 37.0 40.5 Cash EPS 36.2 40.3 42.6 46.5 BV 139.5 165.4 187.8 211.8 DPS 8.0 12.0 12.5 14.0 Operating Ratios (%) EBIT Margin 20.4 20.2 20.3 20.5 PBT Margin 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.6 PAT Margin 17.8 18.3 18.0 18.1 Debtor days 71 71 70 71 Creditor days 44 45 43 41 Return Ratios (%) RoE 22.7 21.2 19.7 19.1 RoCE 25.6 23.0 22.6 22.4 RoIC 65.4 51.1 52.6 53.3 Valuation Ratios (x) P/E 17.9 16.2 15.3 14.0 EV / EBITDA 12.7 11.6 10.4 9.1 EV / Net Sales 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 Market Cap / Sales 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 Price to Book Value 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.7 Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 Debt / Equity 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Current Ratio 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 Quick Ratio 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (IT) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E Cyient (INFENT) 543 500 Hold 6,107 31.4 34.0 40.0 17.3 16.0 13.6 13.5 11.0 8.6 22.2 21.9 22.4 19.2 18.1 18.6 Eclerx (ECLSER) 1,832 1,500 Sell 5,580 74.3 99.0 110.0 24.7 18.5 16.7 15.1 11.7 9.9 40.4 45.8 43.5 32.1 35.5 33.2 Firstsource (FIRSOU) 33 45 Buy 2,205 3.3 4.2 5.1 9.9 7.9 6.5 7.3 5.8 4.4 9.5 11.6 14.1 11.2 12.2 12.9 HCL Tech* (HCLTEC) 853 1,050 Buy 119,952 51.4 55.0 64.0 16.6 15.5 13.3 12.5 11.0 9.0 35.2 31.7 30.5 29.3 25.7 24.7 Infosys (INFTEC) 1,150 1,300 Buy 264,126 53.9 57.0 65.0 21.3 20.2 17.7 14.9 13.4 11.4 31.4 29.7 30.1 22.5 21.3 21.7 KPIT Tech (KPISYS) 135 105 Hold 2,663 11.9 10.9 13.0 11.4 12.4 10.4 6.9 6.0 4.9 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.0 13.6 14.2 Mindtree (MINCON) 1,490 1,450 Buy 12,491 63.9 73.0 93.0 23.3 20.4 16.0 13.8 11.5 9.1 33.7 32.2 33.7 26.6 25.3 26.4 NIIT Technologies (NIITEC) 526 525 Hold 3,214 31.8 42.0 47.5 16.6 12.5 11.1 8.2 5.9 4.9 23.4 29.8 31.9 14.3 16.6 16.6 Persistent (PSYS) 664 715 Hold 5,312 36.3 45.0 51.0 18.3 14.8 13.0 11.7 8.9 7.3 27.5 28.7 27.4 20.7 21.2 20.2 TCS (TCS) 2,537 2,800 Buy 499,927 110.8 119.0 130.0 22.9 21.3 19.5 17.2 15.2 13.4 81.8 77.3 74.6 42.8 36.1 31.9 Tech Mahindra (TECMAH) 540 600 Buy 51,980 26.7 29.0 36.0 20.2 18.6 15.0 11.8 11.6 9.3 26.9 24.9 26.5 21.5 19.4 20.4 Wipro (WIPRO) 568 680 Buy 140,231 35.1 37.0 40.5 16.2 15.3 14.0 11.6 10.4 9.1 23.0 22.6 22.4 21.2 19.7 19.1 * June year end, ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9
RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10
ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Abhishek Shindadkar, MBA, Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Abhishek Shindadkar, MBA, Research Analyst of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analyst do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Abhishek Shindadkar, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 11