PI Industries. 2QFY16 Result Review HOLD. Custom synthesis restricted 2Q revenue growth ; maintain HOLD. Sector: AGRI

Transcription

1 $Com panyname$ Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 2QFY16 Result Review (Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda) HOLD PI Industries Ltd. Custom synthesis restricted 2Q revenue growth ; maintain HOLD PI Industries Ltd (PI) reported 2QFY16 result with a consolidated revenue growth of 5%/-20% YoY/QoQ respectively at Rs 4.4 bn led by 10% growth in domestic business and a flat growth in custom Synthesis business (CSM). EBITDA margin seen expansion of ~200 bps YoY to 19% for 2QFY16. CSM business toned down revenue growth for 2QFY16: Total revenue growth was restricted to 5%/-20% YoY/QoQ to Rs 4.4bn mainly due to flat growth in CSM business led by deferred off take schedule of customers (revenue from domestic agri input business grew by 10%; restricted by less than average monsoon). We revise our expectation for FY16 from 20% to 18%. The management expect ~18-20% growth in CSM business and ~15% growth in overall business. EBITDA margins expansion of 200 bps: 2QFY16 EBITDA stood at Rs848mn a YoY/QoQ growth of 17%/-38%. EBITDA margin seen the expansion of 200bps mainly due to better product mix (higher contribution of branded products and moderating input prices). We expect EBITDA margin expansion of 178bps over FY15-18e. Jambusar plant update: 2 nd plant of Jambusar has stared operations and 3 rd plant is expected to start operation from 3QFY16. The company expect, Rs 3-3.5bn revenue contribution from three units of Jambusar plant. The management expect to achieve 2x ATR from Jambusar plant once it is fully operational. Sector: AGRI 29 th October, 2015 Price Price Target Up/Down (%) Rs. 647 Rs % Bloomberg Code PI IN Reuters Code PIIL.BO. Share Holding (%) Promoters As on 30th June FII 17.0 DIIs 8.79 Stock Data Nifty 8,112 Sensex 26, week high/low 787/376 Maket Cap (Rs. bn) 88.8 Face Value Rs. 1 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 1Y Absolute Relative to Sensex Valuation: The stock currently trades at 30.5x/23.8x/18.9x FY16e/FY17e/FY18e EPS. We believe, pressure in domestic agri business and slow off take schedule of CSM customer will put some pressure on the stock for near term. However, with the strong order book and higher contribution from branded products from domestic business will help the company to grow at a CAGR of 20% over FY15-18e. We maintain our HOLD rating with the revised price target of Rs 717. (21x PE on EPS FY18e). Relative Performance Management Discussion: 1) Order book for 2QFY16 were $610mn, 2) Total revenue to grow at ~15% in FY16, 3) expect to launch 1-2 products in domestic agri input segment and 2 new molecules to commercialised in CSM business, 4) capex to remain Rs bn for FY 16 and ~1.5bn for FY17, 5) capex for FY16 is Rs 3bn 50 BSE Sensex PI Industries Source:-Bloomberg Exhibit 1: Financial summary (Rs mn) Y/E March FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e Net sales Growth (%) Operating margin (%) PAT Adjusted PAT EPS (Rs) Growth (%) P/E(x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Debt/equity (x) P/Bv (x) Vaishali Parkar Kumar vaishali.parkar@bobcaps.in

2 Exhibit 2: 2QFY16 Financial (Rs Mn) 2QFY16 2QFY15 YoY (%) 1QFY16 QoQ (%) Net Sales 4,461 4, , Raw Material Cost 2,474 2, , %of net sales Staff Cost %of net sales SG&A %of net sales EBITDA , %of net sales Depreciation %of net sales EBIT , %of net sales Interest/(Interest income) Other Income PBT , Provision for tax Recurring PAT Exceptional Items (Loss)/Gain Reported PAT EPS (Rs) Equity research 2

3 Financials Exhibit 3: Income Statement Net sales 11,514 15,955 19,403 22,971 27,612 33,575 growth (%) COGS 8,123 11,083 11,154 13,589 16,003 19,358 Staff Cost 886 1,108 1,413 2,136 2,568 3,122 R&D Cost SG&A Cost ,898 2,519 3,028 3,683 EBITDA 1,809 2,890 3,744 4,497 5,736 7,076 growth (%) Depreciation EBIT 1,589 2,574 3,246 3,900 5,058 6,332 Other income Interest paid Extraordinary/Exceptional items (7) (1) PBT 1,458 2,614 3,386 4,014 5,212 6,546 Tax ,094 1,124 1,511 1,898 Minority interest PAT 965 1,881 2,476 2,890 3,700 4,647 Non-recurring items 7 1 (184) Adjusted PAT 972 1,881 2,292 2,890 3,700 4,647 growth (%) Exhibit 4: Balance Sheet Cash & Bank balances ,250 3,853 5,918 Other Current assets 5,702 6,931 8,899 8,874 10,532 12,638 Investments Net fixed assets 5,386 5,691 6,659 7,563 7,884 8,140 Goodwill Other non-current assets Total assets 11,382 13,227 16,332 18,692 22,275 26,701 Current liabilities 3,206 4,377 6,105 5,087 5,629 6,361 Borrowings 2,297 1, ,448 1, Other non-current liabilities Total liabilities 6,064 6,282 7,367 6,903 7,146 7,377 Share capital Reserves & surplus 5,182 6,809 8,828 11,652 14,992 19,187 Shareholders' funds 5,317 6,945 8,965 11,789 15,129 19,324 Total liabilities 11,382 13,227 16,332 18,692 22,275 26,701 Equity research 3

4 Exhibit 5: Cash Flow Statement Profit after tax 965 1,881 2,476 2,944 3,770 4,735 Depreciation Chg in working capital (272) (63) (534) (723) (1,134) (1,397) Total tax paid 161 (45) (184) Cash flow from operations 1,067 1,937 2,256 2,817 3,314 4,081 Capital expenditure (1,813) (470) (1,465) (1,500) (1,000) (1,000) Change in investments - 0 (0) Cash flow from investments (1,813) (470) (1,465) (1,500) (1,000) (1,000) Free cash flow (747) 1, ,317 2,314 3,081 Issue of shares Net inc/dec in debt (276) (937) (546) 633 (300) (500) Dividend (incl. tax) (158) (159) - (287) (367) (461) Other financing activities 1,246 (94) (525) 216 (0) 0 Cash flow from financing 822 (1,190) (1,070) 562 (667) (961) Inc/(Dec) in Cash & Bank (280) 1,879 1,647 2,121 bal. Exhibit 6: Ratio analysis Y/E Mar FY13 F14 F15 F16e F17e F18e Per share data (Rs) EPS CEPS DPS BV Profitability ratios (%) Gross margins Operating margins Net margins Valuation ratios (x) PE P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales RoE RoCE RoIC Equity research 4

5 Sales and Dealing Team Purvesh Shelatkar Senior Vice President & Head Equity Anil Pawar Senior Manager Dealing Sachin Sambare Manager Dealing /33 Ashwin Patil Executive Dealing Research Team Sectors Vaishali Parkar Kumar Analyst Agri, Auto, Defence Padmaja Ambekar Analyst Auto Ancillary, Infra, Midcap Akanksha Tripathi Analyst Footwear, FMCG Rishabh Mehta Associate Textile, FMCG, Infra Hareesha Kakkera Associate Bio Technology, Pharmaceuticals UTI Tower, 3rd Floor, South Wing, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai India. Ph.: Fax: research@bobcaps.in Web: Disclaimer BSE SEBI No. : INB BUY. We expect the stock to deliver >15% absolute returns. HOLD. We expect the stock to deliver 5-15% absolute returns. SELL. We expect the stock to deliver <5% absolute returns. Not Rated (NR). We have no investment opinion on the stock. NSE SEBI No. (CASH): INB NSE SEBI No. (DERIVATIVES): INF The BoB Capital Markets research team hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report." BOB Capital Markets Ltd. generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, BOB Capital Markets Ltd. generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additionally, other important information regarding our relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of clients of BOB Capital Markets Ltd.. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, clients should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. BOB Capital Markets Ltd. does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult with their tax advisers regarding any potential investment in certain transactions including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non investment-grade securities that give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, but regulatory, compliance, or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). We and our affiliates may act as market maker or assume an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or advisory services for or relating to those companies and may also be represented in the supervisory board or any other committee of those companies. For the purpose of calculating whether BOB Capital Markets Ltd. and its affiliates hold, beneficially own, or control, including the right to vote for directors, 1% or more of the equity shares of the subject, the holding of the issuer of a research report is also included. BOB Capital Markets Ltd. and its non-us affiliates may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used this research to the extent that it relates to non-us issuers, prior to or immediately following its publication. Foreign currency denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies, affectively assume currency risk. In addition, options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current derivatives risk disclosure document before entering into any derivative transactions. In the US, this material is only for Qualified Institutional Buyers as defined under rule 144(a) of the Securities Act, 1933.No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without BOB Capital Markets Ltd. s prior written consent. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in the United Kingdom. Equity research 5