HOLD. Q4 earnings beat but order backlog flat ABB. Target Price: Rs 1,213. Key drivers

Transcription

1 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update HOLD Target Price: Rs 1,213 Q4 earnings beat but order backlog flat s Q4CY15revenue at Rs24bnwasin line withour expectation of Rs24bn. EBITDA margin improved 290 bps YoYand beat our estimate by 180 bps. PAT at Rs1.3bn was 17% above our estimate on higher EBITDA (20% beat)offset somewhat by higher tax rate (38%) during the quarter. Order inflow at Rs20.6bndeclined by17% YoYdue to lack of large orders from conventional sectors, however base orders grew by ~10% YoY. Management indicated that demandfrom conventional sectors (steel, cement, etc.) and exports remainedweak (declined to ~12% of sales from ~17% in CY14), however impact was offset by growth from new sectors such as renewables, railways, etc. as well as growth in opexdriven services business (~Rs 10 bn in CY15). CMP : Rs 1,148 Potential Upside : 6% MARKET DATA. of Shares : 212mn Free Float : 25% Market Cap : Rs243bn 52-week High / Low : Rs1,525 / Rs963 Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 59,040 shares Bloomberg Code : IB Equity Promoters Holding : 75% FII / DII : 5% / 12% Renewable and railways to drive growth in CY16: is focusing on renewable energy (~14% of sales), especially Solar to offset the weakness in conventional sectors. s offerings in Solar are invertors (~50% market share), power electronics and T&D, which have highest margin in the entire value chain. Further, is one of the key beneficiaries of increase in railway capex (refer our detailed report on Railway : ACTUALLY what will happen) and it should benefit the company with increased sales of turbochargers, traction motors and convertors. is present in both diesel as well as electric locos. CutCY16E EPS; downgrade toholdas positives priced in:we cut our CY16 revenue growth to 10% (vs14% earlier) due to lower than expected order inflow in Q4 and flat order backlog YoY. Accordingly, we cutour CY16 EPS to Rs24 (Rs27 earlier).we introduce our CY17E EPS at Rs 30. Our TP stands atrs 1,213 (40x CY17E). Financial summary (Standalone) Sales (Rs mn) 76,307 80,152 88, ,661 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,592 7,125 8,504 10,225 Adj PAT (Rs mn) 2,280 2,999 4,999 6,427 Consensus EPS* (Rs) EPS (Rs) Change YoY (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/E (x) DPS (Rs) Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital Key drivers (Rsbn) CY15 CY16E CY17E Order Inflow Order Backlog Margin (%) Price performance Sensex Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 01

2 Exhibit 1: Results update(rsmn) 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update Quarter ended 12 months ended Dec-15 Dec-14 % Chg Sep-15 % Chg CY16E CY15 % Chg Total Income 24,251 22, , ,766 81, EBITDA 2,632 1, , ,504 7, Other income , PBIDT 2,739 1, , ,154 7, Depreciation ,612 1, Interest (30.8) 250 (17.0) (56.1) PBT 2,090 1, ,142 4, Tax ,142 1, Adjusted PAT 1, ,999 2, Extra ordinary income/ (exp.) (296) (206) - Reported PAT 1, ,999 2, of shares (mn) EBITDA margins (%) PBIDT margins (%) EPS - annualized (Rs.) Source: Company, Axis Capital 02

3 Financial summary (Standalone) Profit &loss (Rsmn) Net sales 76,307 80,152 88, ,661 Other operating income 1,026 1,251 1,401 1,570 Total operating income 77,333 81,403 89, ,230 Cost of goods sold (53,053) (53,422) (57,653) (65,222) Gross profit 24,280 27,981 32,114 37,008 Gross margin (%) Total operating expenses (18,688) (20,856) (23,610) (26,784) EBITDA 5,592 7,125 8,504 10,225 EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation (1,128) (1,598) (1,612) (1,744) EBIT 4,464 5,527 6,892 8,481 Net interest (1,050) (912) (400) (100) Other income Profit before tax 3,547 4,746 7,142 9,181 Total taxation (1,267) (1,747) (2,142) (2,754) Tax rate (%) Profit after tax 2,280 2,999 4,999 6,427 Minorities Profit/ Loss associate co(s) Adjusted net profit 2,280 2,999 4,999 6,427 Adj. PAT margin (%) Net non-recurring items Reported net profit 2,310 2,999 4,999 6,427 Balance sheet (Rsmn) Paid-up capital Reserves & surplus 27,696 29,662 32,608 35,643 Net worth 28,120 30,086 33,032 36,067 Borrowing 3,711 6,000 1,000 - Other non-current liabilities Total liabilities 68,217 74,088 75,656 83,101 Gross fixed assets 19,718 20,748 22,248 24,248 Less: Depreciation (5,723) (7,321) (8,933) (10,677) Net fixed assets 13,995 13,427 13,315 13,571 Add: Capital WIP Total fixed assets 14,315 13,427 13,315 13,571 Total Investment Inventory 8,938 9,396 10,894 12,410 Debtors 31,575 33,909 35,851 39,578 Cash & bank 2,260 5,736 3,321 3,651 Loans & advances 6,790 7,003 7,263 8,273 Current liabilities 36,386 38,003 41,623 47,034 Net current assets 17,199 22,005 20,064 21,842 Other non-current assets Total assets 68,217 74,088 75,656 83,101 Source: Company, Axis Capital Cash flow (Rsmn) 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update Profit before tax 3,547 4,746 7,142 9,181 Depreciation & Amortisation (1,128) (1,598) (1,612) (1,744) Chg in working capital 37 (1,330) (474) (1,449) Cash flow from operations 4,525 4,178 6,538 6,822 Capital expenditure (935) (710) (1,500) (2,000) Cash flow from investing (1,984) (1,621) (1,900) (2,100) Equity raised/ (repaid) Debt raised/ (repaid) (2,490) 2,289 (5,000) (1,000) Dividend paid (941) (920) (2,052) (3,392) Cash flow from financing (3,446) 919 (7,052) (4,392) Net chg in cash (906) 3,476 (2,415) 329 Key ratios OPERATIOL FDEPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Dividend payout ratio (%) GROWTH Net sales (%) EBITDA (%) Adj net profit (%) FDEPS (%) PERFORMANCE RoE (%) RoCE (%) EFFICIENCY Asset turnover (x) Sales/ total assets (x) Working capital/ sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days FINCIAL STABILITY Total debt/ equity (x) Net debt/ equity (x) - - (0.1) (0.1) VALUATION PE (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) EV/ Net sales (x) PB (x) Dividend yield (%) Free cash flow yield (%) Dividend yield (%) Free cash flow yield (%) (0.1) Source: Company, Axis Capital 03

4 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update Disclosures: 1. Business Activity: Axis Securities Limited (ASL) is engaged in the business of providing Retail broking services & distribution of various financial products. ASL is also registered with SEBI as Research Analyst under SEBI regn.no.inh Disciplinary History: There has been no instance of any Disciplinary action, penalty/stricture etc. levied/passed by any regulators/administrative agencies against ASL and its Directors. Pursuant to SEBI inspection of books and records of ASL as a Stock Broker, SEBI has issued an Administrative warning to ASL in Terms & Conditions of issuance of Research Report: The Research report is issued to the registered clients. The Research Report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. 4. Details of Associates: ASL is a 100% subsidiary company of Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. is a listed public company. The following are the SEBI Registration s. Particulars Merchant Banking (Category 1) Bankers to the Issue Debenture Trustee Custodian of Securities NSDL CDSL Clearing Member (MCX-SX Futures & Option) Clearing Member (NSE Future & Options) Clearing Member (BSE - Future & Options) Trading Clearing Member (NSE Currency Futures) Trading Clearing Member (MCX Currency Futures Trading Clearing Member (BSE Currency Futures) Trading Clearing Member (USE Currency Futures) Portfolio Manager Other Associates are as follows: Sr. Name of the Associates 1 Axis Private Equity Limited 2 Axis Trustee Services Ltd Particulars Axis Infrastructure Fund. It is registered with SEBI as a Domestic Venture Capital Fund under SEBI (Venture Capital Funds) Regulations It is registered with SEBI as a Debenture Trustee under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Debenture Trustees) Rules, Axis Asset Management Company Limited Portfolio Management Services 4 5 Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Limited- It is registered with SEBI as a Mutual Fund and is Investment Manager to Axis Mutual Fund. Axis Capital Limited - It is engaged in the business of providing stock broking services mainly to Institutional clients and HNIs and also into distribution of financial products. It is also a SEBI registered entity. It is registered with SEBI as a Mutual Fund and is Investment Manager to Axis Mutual Fund. BSE - Stock Broking (Cash Segment) BSE - Stock Broking (Derivatives Segment) NSE - Stock Broking (Equity Segment) NSE - Stock Broking (Future & Options) NSE - Stock Broking (Currency Derivatives) BSE - Stock Broking (Wholesale Debt Market) Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) Merchant Banker 04

5 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update 5. Disclosures with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest: Sr.. Disclosures Yes/ Details, if applicable 1 ASL or its research analyst, his/her associate or relative has any direct or indirect financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest. 2 ASL or its associates, research analyst, his/her relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. 3 ASL or its Research analyst, his/her associate or relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 6. Disclosures with regard to receipt of compensation: Sr.. Disclosures Yes/ Details if applicable 1 ASL or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Axis Bank is a scheduled commercial bank offering banking services to various companies and receiving fee etc. 2 ASL or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months. Axis Capital Ltd., has managed or co-managed public offering of securities for various companies in the past twelve months 3 ASL or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. Axis Bank is a scheduled commercial bank offering banking services to various companies and receiving fee etc. 4 5 ASL or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company in the past twelve months. ASL or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. Axis Capital Ltd., has provided investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services to various companies and received compensation in the past twelve months from such companies. 7. Other Disclosures: Sr.. Disclosures Yes/ Details, if applicable 1 The research analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. 2 ASL or its research analyst has been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. 05

6 05 FEB 2016 Quarterly Update Disclaimer: The views expressed / recommendations made in this report are based on fundamental research and other inputs and could be at variance with the company s / group s views based on technical analysis. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of Axis Securities Limited (ASL). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. thing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities and strategies discussed and opinions expressed, if any, in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this document as may be required from time to time without any prior notice. ASL, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected on own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ASL. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. ASL and its affiliated companies, their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, may have long or short position(s) in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities or earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or investment banker, lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting this document. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S. Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ASL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. Neither ASL, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information contained in this report. ASL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the Vs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. Disclaimer concerning NRI /Foreign investors: The applicable Statutory Rules and Regulations may not allow the distribution of this document/information in certain jurisdictions, and persons who are in possession of this document/information, should inform themselves about and follow, any such restrictions. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S. Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. This document/information is not meant, directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would not be in conformation to the law, regulation or which would require Axis Securities Limited (ASL) and affiliates/ group companies to obtain any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither ASL nor any of its affiliates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be held responsible, liable for any kind of damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including but not limited to losses, lost revenue, lost profits, notional losses that may arise from or in connection with the use of the document/information. Axis Securities Limited, SEBI Reg..- NSE-INB/INF/INE , BSE- INB/INF ,MCX SX-INB/INF/INE , ARN , CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL Main/Dealing off.- Unit. 2, Phoenix Market City, 15, LBS Road, Near Kamani Junction, Kurla (west), Mumbai , Tel / , Reg. off.- Axis House, 8th Floor, Wadia International Centre, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai Compliance Officer: Anand Shaha, [email protected], Tel :