HCC BUY. Infrastructure January 29, 2016

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1 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 India Research Infrastructure January 29, 2016 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: IN Reuters: HCNS.BO BUY Better margins drive earnings s Q3FY16 profitability was better than estimates on account of higher than expected OPM which was driven by higher claims recovery amount. EBITDA of Rs 2.3bn (+13.5% YoY) was 26% higher than our estimate as the margin stood at 22.5% (vs. est. of 17.5%). However, the net revenue of Rs 10.4bn (-5% YoY) was in-line with our estimate of Rs 10.6bn. The company has made a loss provision of Rs 455mn towards expected delays in Bhutan project. Despite this, the PAT of Rs 194mn was ahead of our estimate of Rs 111mn. Going ahead, we revised upwards our earnings estimates for FY16E/17E to factor in the higher operating margins. We believe that the recovery in investment cycle with management s focus on debt reduction would augur well for. Maintain Buy with revised TP of Rs 38. Order book at ~5x FY15 sales The company received orders of Rs 9.86bn (+8% YoY) during Q3FY16 which consist of two orders from nuclear power sector. The total orders inflow during Apr-Dec 2015 stood at Rs 37 bn (details in Exhibit: 4) while the total order backlog stands at Rs 162.9bn, higher by ~14% on YoY basis. Transportation segment consists 52% of the total order book while Hydro Power & Water segments have share of ~23% and ~17% respectively. The company has orders of Rs 59.8bn in L1 (which consist of Rs 27.5 bn order from Mumbai Metro Line-3). The total order book is expected to cross Rs 210 bn post conversion of these L1 orders which provides strong revenue visibility (order book to FY15 sales : ~5x). Outlook and Valuation We have increased our EPS estimates for FY16E/17E by ~9%/29% to factor in the better than expected operating margins. The order book of Rs 163 bn (~4x of FY15 revenues) and provides better visibility over the medium term. We expect 28% PAT CAGR during FY15-18E led by pick up in execution and decline in interest cost going ahead. We believe that better clarity on the core construction business led by increase in profitability and reduction in debt during FY16-18E (net D/E expected to decline to 1.7x in FY18E from 3.5x in FY15) to bode well for. We maintain BUY with a revised SOTP target price of Rs38. We value standalone FY18E EPS at 9x P/E and ascribe Rs 18/share to other businesses (Lavasa, Steiner AG and BoTs). Key Financials Y/E March (Rsmn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue 40,395 41,267 40,684 45,154 49,991 EBITDA 6,407 7,737 7,852 7,703 7,991 EBITDA margin (%) Adj. net profit ,377 1,714 EPS (Rs) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Recommendation CMP: Target Price: Previous Target Price: Rs22 Rs38 Rs38 Upside (%) 72% Stock Information Market Cap. (Rs bn / US$ mn) 17/ week High/Low (Rs) 41/16 3m ADV (Rs mn /US$ mn) 124/1.8 Beta 2.0 Sensex/ Nifty 24,470/7,425 Share outstanding (mn) 779 Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M YTD Absolute (15.4) (20.1) (25.7) (14.1) Rel. to Sensex (10) (11.7) (10.3) (8.3) Performance 31,500 27,500 23,500 19,500 15,500 Source: Bloomberg Sensex (LHS) Earning Revision (%) FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue EBITDA EPS Source: Karvy Stock Broking Analysts Contact Vijay Goel [email protected]

2 Exhibit 1: s Q3FY16 performance Y/E Mar (`mn) Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9M FY16 9M FY15 YoY (%) Total revenue 10,934 11,177 9,053 9,352 10,366 (5.2) ,771 30,090 (4.4) Material consumed 2,095 2,879 2,127 2,465 2, (7.0) 6,884 6, Staff cost ,709 2, Construction expenses 5,637 5,168 4,085 3,884 4,573 (18.9) ,542 14,216 (11.8) Other expenses (11.5) (17.1) Total expenditure 8,878 9,255 7,435 7,529 8,032 (9.5) ,996 24,275 (5.3) EBITDA 2,057 1,922 1,618 1,823 2, ,775 5,815 (0.7) Depreciation (6.1) (4.8) 1,027 1,116 (8.0) Operating profit 1,702 1,535 1,275 1,473 2, ,748 4, Other income ,418 1, EBIT 2,067 2,037 1,800 1,902 2, ,166 5, Interest 1,661 1,677 1,675 1,756 1, (3.1) 5,133 4, Exceptional items (455) - - (3) 0 - EBT (24.3) (48.7) 1, Income tax (15.5) (47.0) Reported net income (28.6) (49.6) Adjusted net income (28.6) (49.6) Equity capital (FV `1) EPS (Rs) (28.6) (49.6) bps bps bps EBITDA margin (%) (75) OPM (%) (89) NPM (%) (61) (214) (22) Tax/PBT (%) (289) Construction exp./sales (%) (448) (166) Exhibit 2: Y/E March (Rs. mn) Change in estimates We have cut our revenue estimates for FY16E/17E/18E by ~4%/~1%/~2% to factor in the slower than expected execution in its EPC projects. However, we have increased our EBITDA estimates by ~16%/~9%/~2% for FY16E/17E/18E, primarily on account of factoring in better margin estimates. Our EPS estimates are revised upwards by ~9% for FY16E and ~30% for FY17E. The EPS estimate for FY18E is largely unchanged at Rs 2.2/share. New Old % change New Old % change New Old % change Net revenues 40,684 42,291 (3.8) 45,154 45,496 (0.8) 49,991 50,875 (1.7) EBIDTA 7,852 6, ,703 7, ,991 7, EBIDTA margin (%) Adj. Net Profit ,377 1, ,714 1, EPS (Rs.) FY16E FY17E FY18E 2

3 Exhibit 3: Details of orders inflows during YTDFY16 Name of Project Business Line State Share (Rs Mn) Award Month Const of Tata Memorial Hospital, Vizag Buildings AP 1,530 Jul-15 Single line BG Tunnel No. 12 A Transportation Manipur 7,850 Jul-15 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal Sec of NH 1A Transportation J&K 17,830 Sep-15 C&S Works at BARC Tarapur, Ph 1 Nuclear MH 9,430 Oct-15 DFMF Plant Nuclear TN 430 Dec-15 Total 37,070 Source: Karvy Stock Broking, Company Exhibit 4: Order inflow and order backlog Rs Mn 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 Order backlog 143, , , , ,900 YoY (%) Order inflow 9,128 8, ,210 9,860 YoY (%) Source: Karvy Stock Broking, Company Valuation We maintain our Buy rating on with target price of Rs 38/share. We value the standalone business at 9x P/E on FY18E earnings and ascribe Rs 6/share to Lavasa, Rs 9/share to other BoTs and Rs 3/share to Steiner AG (enhanced discount to BV). For Lavasa ( s stake 68.7%), we have changed our valuation methodology from IPO based valuation to Asset based valuation. We have ascribed valuation of Rs 11/acre to 5000 acres and adjusted debt of Rs 48bn to arrive at Rs 6/share. Exhibit 5: SOTP Valuation Component Valuation Method Rs per share Standalone construction business 9x FY18E EPS 20 Lavasa Asset Valuation 6 Road BoTs 1x BV 9 Steiner AG 1xBV 3 Total 38 Source: 3

4 Exhibit 6: Order book trend (x) Exhibit 7: Revenues expected at 7% CAGR (FY15-17E) (1.4) (2.5) (3.9) % (5) Order book Order inflow Order book /sales (RHS) Revenue Revenue growth (RHS) Exhibit 8: EBITDA & EBITDA Margins Exhibit 9: PAT expected to grow 28% CAGR (FY15-17E) % , (500) (1,500) EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS) (2,500) Exhibit 10: Ease in working capital 60.0 (x) 1.30 Exhibit 11: Deleveraging balance sheet 60.0 (x) Net WC Revenue Net WC/ Revenue (RHS) Net Debt Networth Net D:E (RHS) 4

5 Exhibit 9: Profit and Loss Statement Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 40,395 41,267 40,684 45,154 49,991 % growth (1.4) Operating expenditure 33,988 33,530 32,832 37,451 42,000 EBITDA 6,407 7,737 7,852 7,703 7,991 % growth (1.9) 3.7 Depreciation 1,446 1,503 1,422 1,545 1,604 Other income 2,028 1,551 1,870 1,947 1,971 EBIT 6,989 7,785 8,300 8,105 8,357 Interest 6,079 6,511 6,850 6,050 5,800 Exceptional items PBT 910 1,273 1,450 2,055 2,558 Tax Reported PAT ,377 1,714 Extra Ordinary (inc)/exp Adjusted PAT ,377 1,714 % growth Exhibit 10: Balance Sheet Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Cash & cash equivalents 1, ,067 1,585 1,582 Trade receivables 16,929 24,169 20,749 22,577 24,995 Inventories 36,587 35,678 32,832 34,080 38,220 Loans & advances 13,969 14,928 15,642 14,685 14,890 Other assets 4,291 5,794 5,911 6,555 7,351 Investments 6,900 6,929 7,273 7,073 5,173 Fixed Assets 9,204 7,910 7,438 6,744 5,991 Total assets 89,348 96,386 91,912 93,299 98,201 Current liabilities & provisions 15,707 17,113 14,515 16,772 18,400 Other liabilities 12,600 14,608 13,701 16,191 18,246 Deferred tax liabilities (net) , , Debt 48,170 50,110 44,023 39,123 38,423 Total liabilities 76,714 82,512 73,109 73,119 76,308 Shareholders' equity Reserves & surpluses 12,027 13,229 18,024 19,401 21,115 Shareholders' funds 12,634 13,875 18,803 20,180 21,894 Total Equity and Liabilities 89,348 96,386 91,912 93,299 98,201 5

6 Exhibit 11: Cash Flow Statement Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E PBT 910 1,273 1,450 2,055 2,558 Depreciation 1,446 1,503 1,422 1,545 1,604 Interest/Financial Charges 6,079 6,511 6,850 6,050 5,800 Other income (1,231) (1,345) (1,870) (1,833) (1,851) Other non-cash adjustments (805) Tax paid 1,128 (13) (334) (514) (640) Change in working capital (2,497) (5,380) 1,931 1,982 (3,875) Cash flow from operating activities 5,031 2,934 9,449 9,285 3,597 (Incr) / decr in capital expenditure (317) (209) (950) (850) (851) (Incr) / decr in investments 18 (29.40) (344) 200 1,900 Others 13 1,345 1,870 1,833 1,851 Cash flow from investing activities (286) 1, ,183 2,900 Incr / (decr) in borrowings 1,862 1,940 (6,087) (4,900) (700) Issuance of equity - - 4, Dividend paid (1) Interest paid (5,997) (6,511) (6,850) (6,050) (5,800) Others (130) Cash flow from financing activities (4,266) (4,532) (8,937) (10,950) (6,499) Net change in cash 478 (491) 1,089 (482) (2) Opening Cash 991 1, ,067 1,585 Closing Cash 1, ,067 1,585 1,582 Exhibit 12: Key Ratios Y/E Mar (%) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EBITDA margin EBIT margin Net profit margin Dividend payout ratio Net debt: equity RoCE (%) RoE (%) Exhibit 13: Valuation Parameters Y/E Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Book value per share (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x)

7 Stock Ratings Absolute Returns Buy : > 15% Hold : 5-15% Sell : < 5% For further enquiries please contact: [email protected] Tel: Disclosures Appendix Analyst certification The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. Disclaimer Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections 7

8 Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. January 29, 2016 Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity. KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL s Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Vijay Goel, Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities. Karvy Stock Broking Limited Office No. 701, 7 th Floor, Hallmark Business Plaza, Opp.-Gurunanak Hospital, Mumbai RegdOff : 46, Road No 4, Street No 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on: Bloomberg - KRVY <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters. 8