SAIL (SAIL) 56. Dismal performance. Result Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. August 17, 2015

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Sell Target : 50 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : -11% What s Changed? Target Changed from 60 to 50 EPS FY16E Changed from 4.8 to 1.1 EPS FY17E Changed from 6.2 to 5.2 Rating Changed from Hold to Sell Quarterly Performance Q1FY16 Q1FY15 YoY (%) Q4FY15 QoQ (%) Revenue 9, , , EBITDA ,129.8 PL PL EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT PL PL Key Financials ( Crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total Operating Inc EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E PE (x) Target PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalisation Crore Debt (FY15P) Crore Cash (FY15P) 2305 Crore EV Crore 52 week H/L 91 /54 Equity capital Crore Face value 10 Price performance (%) Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M JSW Steel SAIL Tata Steel Research Analyst Dewang Sanghavi dewang.sanghavi@icicisecurities.com Dismal performance August 17, 2015 SAIL (SAIL) 56 SAIL reported a dismal set of Q1FY16 numbers wherein the topline, EBITDA and PAT came in notably lower than our estimate. The performance during the quarter was impacted by a steep fall in realisations (14% YoY) and relatively elevated costs levels. Going forward, we expect domestic steel prices to remain muted due to constant threat of imports, especially after recent rounds of Yuan devaluation. Subsequently, we have revised downward our FY16E and FY17E estimates The company reported income from operations of crore for the quarter, down 16.2% YoY (our estimate: crore). Blended realisations for the quarter came in at 34870/tonne (down 14% YoY). Sales volume also came in lower than our expectation at 2.69 MT (our estimate 2.8 MT) On the back of higher-than-expected operating costs and muted realisations, SAIL reported a loss at the EBITDA level of 81.7 crore vs. our estimate of positive EBITDA of crore. EBITDA in the quarter was also impacted by inventory write down of ~ 300 crore During the quarter, the company did not incur any tax expense due to loss at the PBT level. However, it did receive tax credit (negative tax provision) to the tune of crore on account of investment allowance. The company reported a loss at the PAT level of crore vs. our estimate of PAT of 20.0 crore Muted demand scenario to adversely impact capacity utilisation levels The steel sector is currently facing headwinds in the form of a muted demand scenario both domestically and globally. In Q1FY16, domestic steel demand growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by higher imports. During the quarter, steel imports increased steeply by 53.1% YoY to 1.7 MT. In the current challenging scenario we expect SAIL s capacity utilisation to be restrained due to subdued domestic demand. We have modelled sales volume of 13.5 MT for FY16E and 15.0 MT for FY17. EBITDA/tonne to remain under pressure on account of muted realisations Despite the company having access to captive iron ore, the operating performance has been subdued due to higher operating costs. High operating costs coupled with declining steel sales reduced the EBITDA/tonne of the company from 6560/tonne in FY11 to 3929/tonne in FY15. Going forward we expect EBITDA/tonne to remain subdued on the back of muted steel prices coupled with relatively higher operating costs. We have downward revised our EBITDA/tonne estimates of FY16E to 3000/tonne (from 4000/tonne earlier) and of FY17E to 4500/tonne (from 4750/tonne earlier). Subdued realisations, muted EBITDA/tonne; downgrade to SELL The company reported a muted performance on account of a drop in realisations due to subdued demand. On account of the challenging operational environment we have downward revised FY16E and FY17E EBITDA estimates by 25% and 5.3%, respectively. We have valued the stock at 6x FY17E EV/EBITDA and the company s CWIP at book value to arrive at a target price of 50. We have a SELL rating on the stock. Potential safeguard duty on steel imports and a pick-up in domestic steel demand remain key risks to our negative stance on the stock. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis Q1FY16 Q1FY16E Q1FY15 YoY (%) Q4FY15 QoQ (%) Comments Total Operating Income 9, , , , Topline came in lower than our estimate on the back of subdued sales volume and muted realisations Other Income Other income came in lower than our estimate Employee Expense 2, , , , Employee expense came in higher than our estimate Raw Material Expense 3, , , , Power & Fuel Expense 1, , , , Power and fuel expense came in broadly in line with our estimate Other operating Expenses 2, , , , Other operating expense came in notably higher than our estimate EBITDA ,129.8 PL PL Company reported loss at EBITDA level on the back of higher than expected operating costs EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps Depreciation Depreciation expense came in lower than our estimate Interest Interest expense came in broadly in line with our estimate Exceptional Item PBT Tax Outgo Reported PAT PL PL On the back of higher than expected operating expense the company reported loss at PAT level Key Metrics Sales Volume (MT) Sales volume came in below our estimate EBITDA/tonne ( /tonne) ,750 4, , SAIL reported negative EBITDA/tonne on the back of higher operating costs Change in estimates FY16E FY17E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 51, , , , Downward revised topline, EBITDA and PAT estimates EBITDA 5, , , , EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps PAT 2, , , EPS ( ) Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Steel Sales Volume (MT) Maintained sales volume estimates EBITDA/tonne ( /tonne) 3,929 3,000 4,500 4,000 4,750 Downward revised FY16E & FY17E EBITDA/tonne estimates ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis SAIL, a public sector Maharatna company, is one of the largest steel manufacturers in India. The company has a wide product range covering both basic and special steel products, mainly catering to the railways, construction, engineering, power, defence and automotive sectors. SAIL is currently in the process of expanding its steel making capacity (crude steel capacity being expanded from 13.3 MT to 21.4 MT), which is expected to result in volume led growth, going forward. With an improvement expected in infrastructure spending and the company s high exposure to it (SAIL has the highest share of long products in the total product mix vis-à-vis its peers), steel sales volumes should rebound, going forward. Muted demand scenario to adversely impact capacity utilisation levels The steel sector is currently facing headwinds in the form of a muted demand scenario both domestically as well as globally. During Q1FY16, domestic steel demand growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by higher imports. During the quarter, steel imports increased steeply by 53.1% YoY to 1.7 MT. In the current challenging scenario, we expect SAIL s capacity utilisation to be restrained on account of subdued domestic demand. We have modelled sales volume of 13.5 MT for FY16E and 15.0 MT for FY17E. Exhibit 1: We have modelled sales volume of 13.5 MT for FY16E and 15.0 MT for FY17E million tonne Exhibit 2:..with EBITDA/tonne to remain muted ~ /tonne /tonne FY12 FY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E 2000 FY12 FY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E EBITDA/tonne to remain under pressure on account of muted realisations Despite the company having access to captive iron ore, the operating performance has been subdued due to higher operating costs. High operating costs coupled with declining steel sales reduced the EBITDA/tonne of the company from 6560/tonne in FY11 to 3929/tonne in FY15. Going forward, we expect EBITDA/tonne to remain subdued on the back of muted steel prices coupled with relatively higher operating costs. We have downward revised our EBITDA/tonne estimates of FY16E to 3000/tonne (from 4000/tonne earlier) and of FY17E to 4500/tonne (from 4750/tonne earlier). ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Key takeaway from conference call For FY16E, the management has downward revised its production volume target for to 14.5 MT from 15.5 MT earlier Finished steel inventory has increased by ~ tonnes QoQ to 1.70 MT at the end of Q1FY16 from 1.4 MT at the end of Q1FY16 Majority of the production growth in FY16 is expected to be boosted by IISCO with 2.1 MT of hot metal production and 1.5 MT of finished steel production During the quarter, steel realisations declined ~ 1500/tonne QoQ The management has indicated that steel companies have approached the Director General of Safeguards for a potential levy of safeguard duty. However, we await clarity on the same ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 Outlook & valuation The company reported a muted performance on account of a drop in realisations due to subdued demand. On account of a challenging operational environment, we have downward revised FY16E and FY17E EBITDA estimates by 25% and 5.3%, respectively. We have valued the stock at 6x FY17E EV/EBITDA and the company s CWIP at book value to arrive at a target price of 50. We have a SELL recommendation on the stock. Potential safeguard duty on steel imports and pick -up in domestic steel demand remain key risks to our negative stance on the stock. Exhibit 3: Valuation matrix Sales Growth EPS PE Growth P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA RoNW ROCE ( Cr) (%) ( ) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) FY FY FY16E FY17E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Company snapshot Target Price: Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Jan-08 Government mulls over a rise in royalty rates on minerals. Proposal for a shift from fixed sum per tonne basis to ad valorem rates of royalty Aug-08 Global financial crisis is adversely impacting the construction sector and capital spending. Product cuts across the globe to cater to subdued demand Feb-09 Global coking coal miners announce price cuts due to demand pressures and a weak outlook on steel. GoI in its Budget announces an excise duty reduction from 10% to 8% and service tax rate reduction from 12% to 10% May-10 The Government of India accords Maharatna status to the company Mar-11 Coking coal price sky rockets touching highs of US$330/tonne on account of floods in Queensland (Australia ) Dec-11 Mines & Mineral (Development & Regulation) Bill introduced in parliament. Proposes payment of amount equivalent to royalty for development of the areas in which the miners operate. Export duty increased to 30% iron ore exports from India Mar-12 The company increases prices of long products on the back of strong demand on account of robust spending on infrastructure (highways) by the GoI. Coking coal spot prices drop raising speculation over a drop in coking coal pricing contract when contracts come up for renewal next quarter Sep-12 The company aims at a capex of crore for FY13 as a part of its ongoing expansion & modernisation plan Mar-13 GoI divests its 5.82% equity stake in SAIL via OFS. Floor price set at 66 per share Oct-13 The company increases prices of its steel products by ~ / tonne on account of increasing raw material costs (coking coal) Nov-13 The company reports subdued quarterly results for Q2FY14. Reports decadal low EBITDA/tonne of 2871/tonne Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date %OS Position (m) Change (m) 1 Government of India 30-Jun , Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Jun LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Comp 30-Jun Capital International, Inc. 30-Jun ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Jun The Vanguard Group, Inc. 30-Jun APG Asset Management 31-Dec Mellon Capital Management Corporation 30-Jun The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC 30-Jun HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 30-Jun Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-15 Promoter FII DII Others Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor Name Value Shares Investor Name Value Shares APG Asset Management 11.41m 8.71m MFS Investment Management m m PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V. 5.83m 4.45m Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd m m Life Insurance Corporation of India 4.02m 4.16m Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) m -9.85m Eastspring Securities Investment Trust Co. Ltd. 3.32m 2.53m Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd m -7.02m ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 2.02m 2.09m BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited -6.21m -5.53m Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Financial summary Profit and loss statement ( crore) (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales Other Operating Income Total Operating Income 46, , , ,515.2 Growth (%) Raw Material Expenses Employee Expenses Other expenses Total Operating Expenditure 42, , , ,766.4 EBITDA 4, , , ,748.8 Growth (%) Depreciation 1, , , ,668.3 Interest , , ,182.9 Other Income PBT 2, , ,417.0 Exceptional Item 1, Total Tax Reported PAT 2, , ,145.6 Growth (%) EPS ( ) Balance sheet ( crore) (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Liabilities Equity Capital 4, , , ,130.5 Reserve and Surplus 38, , , ,312.2 Total Shareholders funds 42, , , ,442.7 Total Debt 25, , , ,459.9 Deferred Tax Liability 2, , , ,395.2 Minority Interest / Others Total Liabilities 70, , , ,297.9 Assets Gross Block 54, , , ,128.6 Less: Acc Depreciation 27, , , ,242.5 Net Block 26, , , ,886.1 Capital WIP 33, , , Total Fixed Assets 60, , , ,837.0 Investments Inventory 15, , , ,837.0 Debtors 5, , , ,167.4 Loans and Advances 4, , , ,563.6 Other Current Assets 2, , , ,246.2 Cash 2, , ,777.2 Total Current Assets 30, , , ,591.3 Current Liabilities 15, , , ,205.4 Provisions 5, , , ,844.1 Current Liabilities & Prov 21, , , ,049.4 Net Current Assets 9, , ,458.2 Others Assets Application of Funds 70, , , ,297.8 Cash flow statement ( crore) (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Profit after Tax 2, , ,145.6 Add: Depreciation 1, , , ,668.3 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets , , ,379.5 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 3, , , ,430.7 Others CF from operating activities 6, , , ,624.2 (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -9, , , ,800.0 Others CF from investing activities -9, , , ,800.0 Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds 2, , , ,000.0 Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Share Cap Others CF from financing activities 1, , , ,966.5 Net Cash flow , ,857.7 Opening Cash 3, , , Closing Cash 2, , ,777.2 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Per share data ( ) Adj EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Total Operating income PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA (adj for CWIP) EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Metals & Mining) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROCE(%) ROE(%) Company ( ) TP ( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E Coal India Buy Hindalco Industries Hold Hindustan Zinc Hold JSW Steel Hold NMDC Hold SAIL Sell Vedanta Hold Tata Steel Hold NM NM ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

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