Cipla Ltd. Rs India Equity Institutional Research Pharma. One off revenues from Nexium supply drives earnings HOLD. Target Price (Rs): 765

Transcription

1 India Equity Institutional Research Pharma RESULT UPDATE Cipla Ltd. Rs. 741 One off revenues from Nexium supply drives earnings HOLD Result highlights Cipla s Q1FY16 result beats our estimates due to higher than expected one off revenues in US & growth across geographies. Total income grew by 41.6% YoY to Rs. 3853Crs mainly due to strong export formulation growth which includes profit sharing from Nexium supply to Teva. Excluding one offs, base business had also posted strong growth on account of manufacturing efficiencies, strengthening of supply chain & effective use of assets. EBITDA stood at Rs.1039Crs up by 91.8% YoY. EBITDA margin stood at 27% expanded by 710bps on account of better product mix & positive impact from Nexium. Company is also focusing on ramping up investment in R&D and guided R&D expenses to be around 6-8%. PAT stood at Rs. 651Crs up by 120.9% YoY on account of robust sales & higher operating performance. EPS for the quarter stood at Rs. 8.1 Domestic business posted lower growth but in line with industry growth Domestic formulation business, which contributed 37% to the overall sales, grew by 8.4% YoY in Q1FY16 in line with industry growth. Growth was largely on account of sales pick up in Respiratory, Anti-infectives, Cardiac & Gastro Intestinal therapies. Generics contribute around 22-25% of domestic sales. Cipla had received investment from FIL Capital Investments Mauritius II Ltd, the investment arm of Fidelity Growth Partners India, in its newly formed consumer healthcare subsidiary. Through Cipla Consumer Healthcare, the company has re-entered the fast-growing over-the-counter (OTC) healthcare market in India. Management has guided mid teens revenue growth during the year. Company has also identified certain therapy segments (oncology, CNS) wherein they would be penetrating further. We expect domestic business to show 15% CAGR over FY15-17E. One off sales & profit sharing from Nexium supply to Teva drives exports Exports grew by 75% YoY during the quarter led by 78% growth in export formulations & 47% growth in export APIs. Strong growth momentum in exports was on account of good momentum in direct to market (front end) business, sales & profit sharing from Nexium supply to Teva & ramp up in launch of Salmeterol Fluticasone in some of the European markets. Management has highlighted that profit sharing from Nexium supply will lag one quarter. Company has launched Salmeterol Flutiasone in Romania & Mometasone in Romania & Italy. Last year it launched Salmeterol Fluticasone in Germany, Sweden, Slovakia, Croatia, Czech, Belgium & Hungary which are smaller markets with combined market size of app. USD 50-60mn. Currently majority of sales are retail. Company has 15% market share in inhaler space in smaller European markets which can ramp up to 30% in next12-18 months. Major boost will come when the company will launch in UK where market size is around USD 400mn. We believe Advair MDI space will be a low competition market with other players- Sandoz, Orien, Chiesi & Mylan. Currently company has 10 combination inhalers in pipeline targeted for US/EU launches. Company will focus on respiratory, oncology & anti-infective portfolio in North American markets. We expect export business to show 22% CAGR over FY15-17E. Target Price (Rs): 765 Potential Upside :3.0% Market Data Shares outs (Cr) 80.3 Equity Cap (Rs Cr) Mkt Cap (Rs. Cr) Wk H/L (Rs) 753/433 Avg Vol (3M avg) Face Value (Rs) 2 Bloomberg Code CIPLA IN Market Info: SENSEX 28,067 NIFTY 8,518 Price Performance Valuation: Cipla is focusing on restructuring its business model with 2-3 yrs strategy and shifting from partnership model to front end model for which company will be able to reap the benefits in future. US Go-Live on track is as per plan. Launch of combination inhalers in EU/US will be a significant opportunity for the company to drive earnings in long term. Management has guided 20% revenue growth in FY16 & 150bps expansion in operating margins. However, we believe that management has given conservative guidance on margin front & expect 300bps margin expansion on account of higher operating performance in Q1FY16. We believe improvement in base business & sales & profit sharing from Nexium will lead the company to post operating margins around 22% in FY16. We expect revenues to grow by 20.3% & 16.5% in FY16E & FY17E respectively & earnings to grow at 54.4% & 22.8% in FY16E & FY17E respectively. At CMP of Rs. 741 the stock is trading at 32.6xFY16E & 26.6xFY17E EPS. Since the stock price ran up sharply in last few days due to expectation of one off sales in US market we believe upside potential is limited. We, therefore, revise our rating to Hold from Accumulate & value the base business at Rs 669 & NPV of Rs 96 from Advair launch in EU to arrive at the target price of Rs765. Key Financials Revenues EBITDA APAT AEPS P/E (x) EV/EBITDA(x) ROAE (%) Shareholding pattern (%) Particulars Jun15 Mar15 Dec14 Promoters FIIs DIIs Others Total Source: BSE Name of Analyst: Rashmi Sancheti rashmi.sancheti@krchoksey.com KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO>, ThomsonReuters, Factset and Capital IQ 17 th Aug, 2015

2 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 INR Crs Cipla Ltd. Q1FY16 Result Snapshot Profit & Loss account INR Crs Q1FY16 Q4FY15 Q1FY15 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Net Sales Other operating income Total Income Expenditure Materials Consumed % of sales Employee Cost % of sales Other Exp % of sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation EBIT Other Income Interest expenses Excep. Items PBT Tax Effective tax rate (%) PAT Share of Associates Reported PAT Adj PAT Net Margin (%) AEPS Quarterly financial Performance Quarterly financial performance % Revenue EBITDA Adj PAT EBITDA margin (%) PAT margin(%) 2 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

3 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 INR Crs INR Crs Cipla Ltd. Sales Break up INR Crs Q1FY16 Q4FY15 Q1FY15 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Domestic Exports Formulations API Total Exports formulation sales trend Domestic formulation sales trend % % Export formulations YoY (%) Domestic Sales YoY (%) 3 KRChoksey - Institutional Research

4 Cipla Ltd. Consolidated Financial Statements Income statement Revenues Op. Expenses EBITDA Other Income Depreciation EBIT Interest PBT Tax PAT Minority Sh. of Associates Ex. ordinary Adj Pat Balance Sheet Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Total Shareholders Fund Minority Interest Non- current liabilities Long term Borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Other LT liabilities & prov Current Liabilities Short-term borrowings Trade payables Other cur liabilities & Prov Total Liabilities Assets Non- current Assets Fixed assets Goodwill Non-current investments Long-term loans & adv Other non-current assets Current assets Current investments Trade receivables Inventories Cash & bank balances Short-term loans & adv Other current assets Total Assets KRChoksey - Institutional Research

5 Cipla Ltd. Cash Flow Statement PBT Depreciation Interest Exp Others CF before W.cap Inc/dec in W.cap Op CF after W.cap Less Taxes Net CF From Operations Inc/(dec) in F.A + CWIP (Pur)/sale of Investments others CF from Invst Activities Loan Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised Dividend CF from Fin Activities Net inc /(dec) in cash Op. bal of cash Cl. balance of cash Ratio Analysis Per share (Rs) EPS CEPS BVPS DPS Payout (%) Valuation (x) P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Return ratio (%) EBIDTA Margin PAT Margin ROAE ROACE Leverage Ratios (x) Long Term D/E Net Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA Interest Coverage Current ratio Growth Ratios (%) Income growth EBITDA growth PAT growth Turnover Ratios F.A Turnover x Inventory Days Debtors Days Payable days KRChoksey - Institutional Research

6 Cipla Ltd. Cipla Date CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) Recommendation 17-Aug HOLD 8-Jul ACCUMULATE 30-May ACCUMULATE 9-Apr HOLD 13-Feb ACCUMULATE 14-Nov HOLD 2-Sep ACCUMULATE 18-Aug ACCUMULATE Rating Legend Our Rating Upside Buy More than 15% Accumulate 5% - 15% Hold 0 5% Reduce -5% 0 Sell Less than -5% ANALYST CERTIFICATION: We, Rashmi Sancheti (BMS, MS finance & CFA from ICFAI) and Bangaraiah Karravula (B.Com, PGP in Securities Markets) research analyst/associate, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & Conditions and other disclosures: KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd (hereinafter referred to as KRCSSPL) is a registered member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. KRCSSPL is in the process of making an application with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KRCSSPL and its associates by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. KRCSSPL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analyst covers. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by KRCSSPL and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KRCSSPL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KRCSSPL is not under any obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KRCSSPL from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or KRCSSPL policies, in circumstances where KRCSSPL might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KRCSSPL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. KRCSSPL accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our employees in sales and marketing team, dealers and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. KRCSSPL or its associates might have received any commission/compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of brokerage services or specific transaction or for products and services other than brokerage services. KRCSSPL encourages the practice of giving independent opinion in research report preparation by the analyst and thus strives to minimize the conflict in preparation of research report. KRCSSPL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither KRCSSPL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Rashmi Sancheti (BMS, MS finance & CFA from ICFAI) and Bangaraiah Karravula (B.Com, PGP in Securities Markets) research analyst/associate of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific brokerage service transactions. KRCSSPL or its associates collectively or its research analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% (at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report) in the company covered by Analyst, and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by research analyst. Since associates of KRCSSPL are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Rashmi Sancheti (BMS, MS finance & CFA from ICFAI) and Bangaraiah Karravula (B.Com, PGP in Securities Markets) research analyst/associate do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject KRCSSPL and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Please send your feedback to research.insti@krchoksey.com Visit us at Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd Registered Office: 1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Fort, Mumbai Phone: ; Fax: Corporate Office: ABHISHEK, 5th Floor, Link Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai Phone: ; Fax: KRChoksey - Institutional Research