DATRON AG. Investor day supports our positive view. Buy (Buy) EUR (12.50 EUR ) BANKHAUS LAMPE // 1 17/09/2015
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- Daisy Dawson
- 8 years ago
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1 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 1 DATRON AG Investor day supports our positive view 17/09/2015 Buy (Buy) EUR (12.50 EUR ) Close 15/09/ EUR Bloomberg: DAR GY WKN: A0V9LA Sector Engineering Share price performance 52 week high EUR 52 week low 7.42 EUR Compared to SDAX YTD -6.8% 1 month 5.0% 12 months 2.7% Following a well-attended investor day at Datron s headquarters, we confirm our BUY recommendation for the stock with an unchanged PT of MEETING HIGHLIGHTS Management clearly confirmed its 2015 revenues target of m with an EBIT margin of 8-9%. Up to now, the management team does not see any negative impact from the global sector trend. We gained the impression that Datron is aiming to accelerate its R&D spending in H As a result, we assume that the cost base will increase by 0.4 m. This leads to our new EBIT forecast of 3.5 m (previously: 3.9 m) and a corresponding EBIT margin of 8.1% (previously: 9.1%). When reviewing the figures, one should keep in mind that the company uses the German Commercial Code (HGB) accounting method. Thus, R&D spending is booked as expenditures in the P&L. In 2014, Datron spent roughly 3.6 m on R&D (~10% of revenue). For 2015, we now assume a figure slightly above 4.0 m. We expect the company to achieve 10% organic revenue growth in the next few years. Moreover, this growth could be supported by a few smaller acquisitions. On the other hand, we would not be surprised if Datron were to make a small divestment. NEXT FIGURES DUE OUT IN EARLY NOVEMBE R The next event is the publication of the Q3 results in the first week of November. Share data EV (m EUR; 2015) 33.6 Market Cap (m EUR) 39.0 No. of shares (m) 4.0 Free float 27.5% BUY RATING REITERATE D Despite higher R&D expenses, we leave our forecast for 2016 unchanged and do not account for additional unit sales. In our view, the potential output provides upside to our numbers. Our peer group is trading at a 2016E PER of 15.4x (Datron: 11.2x). In addition, our DCF model confirms our price target of Next event Quarterly Results 06/11/2015 Change in model Sales EBIT EPS 2015e % -10.4% 2016e e Analyst Christoph Schlienkamp, Investmentanalyst DVFA Phone: +49 (0) christoph.schlienkamp@bankhaus-lampe.de See end of document for disclaimer. in m EUR e 2016e 2017e Sales EBIT EBIT margin 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% Net financial debt Free cash-flow EPS (in EUR) DPS (in EUR) Dividend yield 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% EV/Sales EV/EBIT Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
2 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 2 Key figures DATRON AG Income statement in m EUR e 2016e 2017e Sales Own work capitalised Total sales Material expenses Personnel expenses Unusual or infrequent items Other operating result EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets EBIT Financial result Income on ordinary activities Extraordinary income/loss EBT Taxes Net income from cont. operations Net income from discont. operations Minority interest Net income (adj.) No. of shares EPS e 2016e 2017e Gross margin 58.5% 54.6% 56.0% 57.0% 57.0% EBITDA margin 7.2% 9.7% 9.8% 12.1% 12.6% EBITA margin 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% EBIT margin 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% EBT margin 5.4% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% Net profit margin 3.7% 5.5% 5.7% 7.5% 7.9% Tax rate 30.5% 30.1% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Growth rates yoy e 2016e 2017e Sales 2.0% 13.9% 10.9% 10.0% 10.0% EBITDA -6.6% 52.0% 12.1% 36.7% 14.1% EBIT -11.6% 63.4% 14.8% 44.0% 16.0% EBT -19.5% 66.1% 14.9% 44.0% 16.0% Net income (adj.) -21.5% 67.0% 15.2% 44.0% 16.0% EPS -21.5% 67.0% 15.2% 44.0% 16.0%
3 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 3 DATRON AG Balance sheet Assets (in m EUR) e 2016e 2017e Fixed assets Property, plant and equipment Intangible assets Financial assets Other long-term assets Current assets Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Securities Cash Total assets Equity and liabilities in m EUR Shareholders equity Shareholders equity (before minority) Minorities Non-current liabilities Pension provisions Other provisions Long-term financial debt Other long-term debt Current liabilities Short-term debt Other accruals short-term Accounts payable Other liabilities Total equity and liabilities DATRON AG Balance sheet structure Assets e 2016e 2017e Fixed assets 20.0% 16.2% 17.7% 15.8% 16.9% Property, plant and equipment 17.2% 13.7% 15.4% 13.8% 15.1% Intangible assets 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Current assets 79.8% 83.7% 82.2% 84.1% 83.0% Inventories 29.8% 34.6% 35.7% 35.2% 34.7% Accounts receivable 21.6% 20.8% 21.5% 21.2% 20.9% Cash 22.8% 23.1% 20.2% 23.5% 23.5% Equity and liabilities Shareholders equity 82.9% 82.1% 83.0% 84.1% 85.2% Non-current liabilities 7.2% 9.6% 9.0% 8.0% 7.2% Pension provisions 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Long-term financial debt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Current liabilities 9.8% 8.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.6% Short-term debt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Accounts payable 7.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2%
4 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 4 DATRON AG Cash flow statement in m EUR e 2016e 2017e Net income (adj.) Depreciation Amortisation of goodwill & intangible assets Change of provisions Other Operating Cash-flow before changes in w/c Change in inventory Change in accounts receivable Change in accounts payable Change in other working capital positions Operating Cash-flow Capex, excluding maintenance Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Income from financial investments Cash-flow from investing activities Free cash-flow Capital measures Increase/decrease in debt position Purchase of own shares Other financing Cash-flow Dividend paid Cash-flow from financing activities Increase/ decrease in liquid assets Effects of exchange rate changes Cash at beginning of period Change in total cash and cash equivalents Cash at end of period
5 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 5 DATRON AG Ratios e 2016e 2017e Per Share Data EPS Book value per share Free Cash-flow per share Dividend per share Valuation ratios EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT Price Earnings ratio (P/E) Price to book (total equity) Dividend yield 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% Profitability ratios EBITDA margin 7.2% 9.7% 9.8% 12.1% 12.6% EBIT margin 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 10.7% 11.2% Net return on sales 3.7% 5.5% 5.7% 7.5% 7.9% Return on capital employed (ROCE) 9.8% 14.8% 15.6% 19.8% 20.4% Productivity ratios Capital turnover 43.2% 42.5% 43.1% 42.1% 43.0% Operating leverage Sales per employee 167, , , , ,064 EBIT per employee 9,196 14,314 15,339 20,843 22,837 Number of employees (in thousands) Financial ratios Equity ratio 82.9% 82.1% 83.0% 84.1% 85.2% Net financial debt (in m EUR) Net debt / Equity -27.5% -28.1% -24.4% -27.9% -27.6% Interest cover Net debt / EBITDA Working Capital (in m EUR) Change Working Capital (in m EUR) WC /sales 29.6% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% Stocks in days of sales Trade debtors in days of sales Trade creditors in days of COGS/Material cost Cash conversion cycle Invest. (property/plant/equity) / Depreciation 68.9% 29.7% 203.6% 100.0% 230.8% Others Sales CAGR (last 3 years) 17.0% 6.0% 8.8% 11.6% 10.3% EBIT CAGR (last 3 years) -0.9% 0.0% 18.4% 39.3% 24.3% Net income CAGR (last 3 years) -2.8% -3.0% 14.8% 40.5% 24.4% Pay out ratio 31.9% 28.6% 24.8% 23.0% 24.8% Free cash-flow (in m EUR) Free cash flow yield 6.9% 3.1% 0.7% 5.7% 4.2%
6 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 6 Disclaimer Analyst declaration The relevant research analysts, as named on the front cover of this research report, certify that (a) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the securities and companies mentioned in this research report; and (b) that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them in this research report. Rating system Shares are rated based upon analyst forecasts with regard to the performance of the share during a period of twelve months. The rating Buy within this general concept means that the share s forecast performance is at least 10%. Hold means a price movement in a bandwidth of -10% to 10%. Sell means that the share s forecast performance is less than -10%. Explanation of valuation Unless shown otherwise, the stated upside targets are based upon either a discounted cash-flow pricing or upon a comparison of the performance ratios of companies that the respective analyst considers to be comparable, or upon a combination of these two analyses. Analysts modify the result of this fundamental assessment to incorporate the potential trend in market sentiment. Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: DATRON AG (DAR GY), Close (15/09/2015): 9.75 EUR, Analyst: Christoph Schlienkamp (Investmentanalyst DVFA). Date of publication Price at recommendation Rating Price target 11/03/ EUR Buy EUR 19/01/ EUR Buy EUR The distribution of recommendations in our investments universe is currently as follows (date: 01/07/2015) Rating Basis: all analysed companies Basis: companies with investment banking relationships Buy 52.1% 75.0% Hold 37.9% 25.0% Sell 10.0% 0.0% Under Review 0.0% 0.0%
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9 BANKHAUS LAMPE // 9 Contacts HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS & ADVISORY Ute Gerbaulet + 49 (0) ute.gerbaulet@bankhaus-lampe.de HEAD OF EQUITY Ralf Menzel + 49 (0) ralf.menzel@bankhaus-lampe.de VIA INTERNATIONAL KBR FINANCE LLC CHAPERONE OF BANKHAUS LAMPE KG IN THE US EQUITY SALES CONTINENTAL EUROPE Ulrich Klingmüller + 49 (0) ulrich.klingmueller@bankhaus-lampe.de EQUITY SALES IN GB Yusuf Bilgic + 44 (0) yb@lampe-capital.com EQUITY SALES IN US Jörg Hagenbuch jh@ikbrfinance.com EQUITY SALES TRADING CONTINENTAL EUROPE Nils Carstens + 49 (0) nils.carstens@bankhaus-lampe.de EQUITY SALES TRADING IN GB Chris Ford + 44 (0) cf@lampe-capital.com EQUITY SALES TRADING IN US Kim Last kl@ikbrfinance.com Bankhaus Lampe Research Jägerhofstraße 10 D Düsseldorf research@bankhaus-lampe.de + 49 (0) (0)
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