Results impacted by subdued demand

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1 India Equity Research Agri Input & Chemicals January 25, 2016 Result Update Coromandel International Results impacted by subdued demand Emkay Your success is our success CMP Target Price Rs165 Rs225 ( ) Rating Upside BUY ( ) 36.7 % Result highlights Subdued demand in both fertiliser as well as non fertiliser business affects revenues which declined 7%yoy to Rs 27.5bn (above our est Rs23.9bn) EBITDA margins at 6% missed our est of 7.1% on account of higher sale of low margin products like DAP coupled with lower production (down 10% yoy) leading to higher fixed cost. EBITDA at Rs 1.7 in line with est while PAT at Rs 554mn below est of Rs 736mn Exports from Sabero witnessed robust growth led by 25% volume growth for Mancozeb and better realization along with currency tailwinds improved profitability for Sabero While we cut our FY16/17 earnings estimate by 29%/21%, we believe the company s strong market share in key markets and diversification into non-fertiliser business should drive revenue growth under normal monsoon condition. Retain Buy reco Low demand and high inventory continues to hurt fertiliser business Coromandel posted weak set of numbers on the back of demand pressure in both fertiliser as well as non-fertiliser business. Revenues were down 7% yoy to Rs 27.5bn (higher than est Rs 23.9bn) with fertiliser business coming under serious pressure due to weak demand which has led to high channel inventory coupled with falling chemical prices globally. Weak demand also impacted non-fertiliser business which saw higher sales returns and price erosion. Split between fertiliser and non-fertiliser revenue stood at 82% - 18%. Margins decline on the back of forex volatility and higher other expense EBITDA margins contracted 160bps to 6% below our estimates of 7.1% led by higher trading of low margin products like DAP, higher staff costs and lower operating leverage. Consequently, EBITDA dropped by 27% to Rs 1.6mn in line with estimates. However, APAT saw a sharp decline of 54% to Rs 554mn (below est) on account of higher interest cost due to increased working capital as subsidy receivable continues to increase and higher tax rate. Market leadership in key markets and diversification into non-fertiliser business to drive growth We cut EPS estimate by 29%/21% for FY16/17 on the back of weaker than estimated performance. However, we believe, Coromandel s strong leadership in key markets of Southern India and entering into northern markets should significantly benefit its fertiliser business while diversification into non-fertiliser segment will drive revenue growth under normal monsoon condition. We reduce target price to Rs 225 (15xFY17E EPS) while retaining Buy reco. Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 89, , , , ,872 EBITDA 6,606 8,009 8,535 7,132 8,589 EBITDA Margin (%) APAT 3,483 3,648 4,057 2,956 4,222 EPS (Rs) EPS (% chg) (44.3) (27.1) 42.8 ROE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Source: Company, Emkay Research Change in EPS Chg FY16E/FY17E (%) (29) /(21) Target Price change (%) (18.2) Previous Reco BUY Emkay vs Consensus EPS FY16E FY17E Emkay Consensus Mean Consensus TP Rs 242 Stock Details Bloomberg Code CRIN IN Face Value (Rs) 1 Shares outstanding (mn) Week H/L 302 / 151 M Cap (Rs bn/usd bn) 48 / 0.71 Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 182,296 Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 0.4 Shareholding Pattern Sep '15 Promoters 62.1% FIIs 5.5% DIIs 7.7% Public and Others 24.8% Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Absolute (13) (14) (33) (44) Rel. to Nifty (1) (4) (23) (33) Relative price chart 300 Rs % Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Coromandel International (LHS) Source: Bloomberg Rohan Gupta [email protected] Pratik Tholiya [email protected] Emkay Research is also available on Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

2 Exhibit 1: Quarterly Result Summary Rs mn Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9M FY15 9M FY16 YoY (%) Revenue 29,621 29,976 21,812 35,644 27,555 (7.0) (22.7) 83,088 85, Expenditure 27,369 28,379 20,888 32,508 25,902 (5.4) (20.3) 76,151 79, as % of sales Consumption of RM 22,725 23,673 16,321 27,074 21,303 (6.3) (21.3) 62,551 64, as % of sales Employee Cost ,053 2, as % of sales Other expenditure 3,921 3,979 3,849 4,710 3,850 (1.8) (18.3) 11,547 12, as % of sales EBITDA 2,252 1, ,137 1,653 (26.6) (47.3) 6,938 5,713 (17.7) Depreciation (3.6) (12.3) EBIT 1,995 1, ,855 1,406 (29.5) (50.8) 6,161 4,923 (20.1) Other Income (42.0) Interest (1.2) PBT 1,677 1, ,603 1,006 (40.0) (61.3) 4,937 3,826 (22.5) Total Tax (6.9) (47.9) (11.0) Adjusted PAT 1, , (53.5) (68.1) 3,371 2,433 (27.8) (Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI (100.0) APAT after MI 1, , (55.6) (68.1) 3,371 2,413 (28.4) Extra ordinary items (734.5) Reported PAT 1, , (33.4) (53.7) 3,331 2,663 (20.1) Reported EPS (33.4) (54.2) (20.0) Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps) EBIDTA (160) (280) (163) EBIT (163) (291) (162) EBT (209) (348) (155) PAT (220) (286) (122) Effective Tax rate Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research January 25,

3 Strong performance at Sabero supports non-fertiliser business While Coromandel s domestic non-fertiliser business remained under stress owing to weak demand due to depleting water levels and saw significant sales return, export business at Sabero showed healthy growth along with improved profitability. Export business was largely driven by increased demand for Mancozeb where volumes increased by 25% led by label expansion in Brazil and demand supply mismatch in key export markets. Consequently, Sabero enjoyed healthy realizations and improved its margins to 16-17% which was also supported by currency tailwinds. Management expects export business to continue to record robust growth led by increased demand for Mancozeb, while domestic business could pick up if monsoon situation normalizes during upcoming kharif. Continues to gain market share in key markets amid poor demand environment Coromandel continues to maintain its leadership position in its key markets of southern India amid falling volumes and poor demand environment. In its key market of Andhra Pradesh and Telengana its market share increased from 61% to 68% even as volumes dropped by 21-22% indicating Coromandel s brand strength in these states. However, pan-india market share fell from 16.5% to 13.9% due to its weak presence in north and central India where the season was better than the southern region. Channel inventory remains bloated with higher concentration in northern region As per the management, channel inventory continues to remain bloated at mn tonne. However, this is largely due to higher DAP (60% of total) in the system and remains concentrated in northern region where Coromandel does not have strong presence and will not hurt the company in the upcoming kharif season. During the quarter, company s own manufactured phosphatic volumes stood at 0.58mn tonnes including 60,000 tonnes of traded DAP. Management has indicated that the capacity utilization at TIFERT has increased from 30-35% to 40-45%. As a result availability of phosphoric acid has improved and should not see any supply pressure during Q4FY16. Subsidy at the end of 31 st Dec 2015 stood at Rs 15.8bn against Rs 14bn in Q2FY16. Steady increase in subsidy has impacted working capital leading to increased interest expense. Cut estimates owing to weaker than estimated performance We cut our FY16/17 earnings estimate by 29%/21% on weaker than estimated performance. We have reduced our revenue estimates by 14%/25% for FY16/17 as near term outlook remains challenging owing to weak demand for fertiliser in key markets of Southern India. However, revival of monsoon in the upcoming kharif season could see recovery in demand for both fertiliser as well as non-fertiliser business. We expect 135 bps improvement in margins for FY17 on the back of higher operating leverage and soft raw material prices. We reduce our target price to Rs 225 (15xFY17E P/E) while retaining our Buy rating on the stock. Exhibit 2: Estimate Revision Table Rs mn FY16E FY17E Old New % Change Old New % Change Net sales 126, ,707 (14.1) 145, ,872 (25.1) EBITDA 8,149 7,132 (12.5) 9,496 8,589 (9.6) EBITDA % 6.4% 6.6% % 7.9% 135 APAT 4,158 2,956 (28.9) 5,318 4,222 (20.6) AEPS (28.9) (20.6) Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research January 25,

4 Key Financials (Consolidated) Income Statement Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 89, , , , ,872 Expenditure 82,658 92, , , ,283 EBITDA 6,606 8,009 8,535 7,132 8,589 Depreciation ,046 1,060 1,080 EBIT 5,895 7,048 7,489 6,072 7,509 Other Income Interest expenses 2,102 2,403 2,096 2,136 2,000 PBT 4,494 5,253 5,959 4,625 6,209 Tax 1,010 1,521 1,902 1,649 1,987 Extraordinary Items 0 (83) (39) Minority Int./Income from Assoc Reported Net Income 3,483 3,565 4,018 3,206 4,222 Adjusted PAT 3,483 3,648 4,057 2,956 4,222 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Equity share capital Reserves & surplus 21,683 22,529 21,729 21,868 23,022 Net worth 21,965 22,812 22,020 22,159 23,314 Minority Interest 1, Loan Funds 28,973 17,013 21,361 20,968 20,968 Net deferred tax liability 1,877 1,890 1,875 1,875 1,875 Total Liabilities 53,877 41,968 45,257 45,003 46,157 Net block 18,563 17,085 14,261 13,201 13,621 Investment 1,596 3,416 3,520 3,520 3,520 Current Assets 59,759 54,547 65,836 64,253 62,584 Cash & bank balance 5,347 4,721 3,178 7,619 8,195 Other Current Assets Current liabilities & Provision 30,241 34,080 38,360 37,701 35,297 Net current assets 29,518 20,467 27,476 26,552 27,287 Misc. exp Total Assets 53,877 41,968 45,257 44,773 45,927 Cash Flow Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 3,793 4,646 5,393 3,936 5,509 Other Non-Cash items Chg in working cap 1,399 8,437 (8,566) 5,365 (158) Operating Cashflow 5,354 14,207 (3,977) 10,848 6,444 Capital expenditure (5,249) 3,718 2,778 (1,500) (1,500) Free Cash Flow ,925 (1,199) 9,348 4,944 Investments (101) (1,820) (104) 0 0 Other Investing Cash Flow Investing Cashflow (4,650) 2,506 3,240 (810) (800) Equity Capital Raised Loans Taken / (Repaid) (127) (11,960) 4,348 (393) 0 Dividend paid (incl tax) (2,976) (2,976) (3,067) (3,067) (3,067) Other Financing Cash Flow Financing Cashflow (5,204) (17,338) (806) (5,596) (5,067) Net chg in cash (4,500) (626) (1,543) 4, Opening cash position 9,847 5,347 4,721 3,178 7,619 Closing cash position 5,347 4,721 3,178 7,619 8,195 Emkay Research January 25,

5 Key Ratios Profitability (%) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Effective Tax Rate Net Margin ROCE ROE RoIC Per Share Data (Rs) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E EPS CEPS BVPS DPS Valuations (x) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E PER P/CEPS P/BV EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Gearing Ratio (x) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Debt/ Equity Net Debt/EBIDTA Working Cap Cycle (days) Growth (%) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Revenue (8.8) (3.9) 0.2 EBITDA (33.8) (16.4) 20.4 EBIT (37.1) (18.9) 23.7 PAT (44.1) (20.2) 31.7 Quarterly (Rs mn) Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Revenue 29,621 29,976 21,812 35,644 27,555 EBITDA 2,252 1, ,137 (1,729) EBITDA Margin (%) (6.3) PAT 1, ,735 (2,578) EPS (Rs) (9.0) Shareholding Pattern (%) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Promoters FIIs DIIs Public and Others Emkay Research January 25,

6 Emkay Rating Distribution BUY Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 25% within the next months. ACCUMULATE Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 10% within the next months. HOLD Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of upto 10% within the next months. REDUCE Expected total return (%) (Stock price depreciation) of upto (-) 10% within the next months. SELL The stock is believed to underperform the broad market indices or its related universe within the next months. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. CIN - L67120MH1995PLC th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai India Tel: Fax: Web: DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES: Emkay Global Financial Services Limited (CIN-L67120MH1995PLC084899) and its affiliates are a full-service, brokerage, investment banking, investment management and financing group. 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