14 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 14
Contents Global energy trends Liquid fuels Refining implications European focus Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Primary energy consumption growth slows and the growth is almost all in the non-oecd Consumption by region Ten year increments by region 18 3 3. 15.5 Other. 1 India 1.5 9 1. 6 China.5 3 OECD. -.5 1965 35 19 975 19 985 19 995 5 15 5 35 Other non-oecd India China OECD Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
The slowdown in China and industry is reflected in a market slowdown in coal growth 18 15 1 9 6 Consumption by fuel Coal Gas 3 Oil 1965 35 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 35 Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Ten year increments by fuel 3 3..5. 1.5 1..5. -.5 19 975 19 985 19 995 5 15 5 35 Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil BP 14
Energy is gradually decoupling from economic growth and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels GDP and energy Shares of primary energy Trillion $1 17 1 GDP 44 34 4 5% 4% 3% Coal % Gas Oil 7 14 Energy (RHS) 4 1965 35 Energy Outlook 35 1% Hydro % Nuclear Renewables* 1965 35 *Includes biofuels BP 14
New sources help to supply sufficient energy to meet demand growth Primary energy production New energy forms 18 FSU 3 Renewables in power 18% 1 S & C America North hamerica Middle East Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels 1% 6 199 5 35 Energy Outlook 35 Europe 1 % of total 6% Asia Pacific (RHS) Africa % 199 5 35 BP 14
The global liquids balance reflects shifts in non-oecd demand and non-opec supply growth Demand Supply 11 15 1 95 9 Other Mid East Other Asia India 35 level North America Other Crude NGLs 85 China 8 1 OECD decline Non-OECD 1 Non-OPEC OPEC growth growth growth Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Liquids demand growth is largest in non-oecd transport, but growth in industry becomes increasingly important Demand by sector Five year increments 1 1 8 Non-OECD transport OECD transport 4 3 Industry Transport 6 Non-OECD ind. & 4 other OECD ind. & other Power 1965 35 1 1-15 15- -5 5-3 3-35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Vehicle numbers are set to grow rapidly in the non-oecd, while OECD growth slows due to saturation Vehicle fleet Vehicle ownership Billions Vehicles per 1 people 5.5 8 US. Germany 6 Japan 1.5 4 China 1. Non-OECD.5 India OECD. 1965 35 1965 35 Transport demand 3 Non-OECD 1 OECD 1965 35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Global transport demand growth slows, as prices and policy boost vehicle fuel economy Transport demand by fuel Five year increments by fuel 3 1 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil: Road Non-road Mtoe 15 1 5 198 1991 13 4 35 1-15 15- -5 5-3 3-35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Supply growth is supported initially by unconventionals, pushing the need for OPEC growth to later in the outlook Liquids supply by type Tight oil supply 1 1 1% Russia OPEC NGLs 1 China % of total South America (RHS) 8% OPEC crude 8 8 Canada & Mexico Biofuels US 6% 6 Oil sands 4% 4 4 Tight oil % Other non-opec % 199 5 35 5 35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Oil trade continues to shift from West to East, but Asia s import needs go beyond the Middle East US Regional imbalances China 3 5 15 1 Net imports Tight oil 75 Middle East FSU Europe Asia Pacific 5 Africa S&C America 5 3 5 15 1 5-5 5-5 1995 15 35 1995 15 35 1995 15 35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
The growth of alternatives will challenge refiners, as will demand growth trends and crude market dynamics Cumulative liquids supply growth Cumulative liquids demand growth 15 1 Other* NGL RoW Crude US Crude Biofuels Condensate OPEC Crude 15 1 Lights Middles Fuel Oil Other Biofuels 5 5-5 OECD 13 7 34 *Includes GTL, CTL and refinery volume gain Energy Outlook 35-5 13 4 35 BP 14
Energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy follow different patterns Energy intensity Carbon intensity Toe per thousand $1 GDP 4.4.3. China US India EU World Tonnes CO per toe 4 3.1 1. 1965 35 1965 35 Energy Outlook 35 BP 14
Conclusion Implications of energy outlook on European refining Demand increased competition Reduction in OECD transport demand Growing supplies of non-refined products Supply - not advantaged Limited access to tight oil and shale gas Competing for crude with East of Suez refineries Sustainability Excess of capacity - squeezed between US & Asia Cost of lower carbon it intensityit Energy Outlook 35 BP 14