Economic Research and Analysis Division Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance P.O. Box 8700 St. John s, NL A1B 4J6 For questions concerning this report contact: Dave Penney, Economist Telephone: (709) 729-0867 Facsimile: (709) 729-6944 E-mail: davepenney@gov.nl.ca www.economics.gov.nl.ca Prepared for the City of St. John s June 2014
About the Economic Research and Analysis Division Economic Research and Analysis (ERA) is one of two divisions in the Economics and Statistics Branch of the Department of Finance. The other is the Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency. The Economic Research and Analysis Division is the central point within Government for economic and demographic analysis. The division s mandate is to provide macroeconomic analysis and forecasting; demographic analysis and projections; analysis of the provincial, national and international economies; and policy and project impact assessments. It is responsible for the Newfoundland and Labrador Econometric and Input/Output Models, as well as, the Population Projection Model. ERA is also responsible for the publication of the budget document, The Economy and the mid-year report, The Economic Review. As part of its mandate, ERA is responsible for monitoring and briefing Government on demographic developments in the province, and preparing long-term population projections for planning purposes. Population projections for various regions within Newfoundland and Labrador are produced annually and are available on ERA s website (economics.gov.nl.ca). 1
Introduction This report outlines population and household projections to 2036 for the St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). 1 These projections were prepared by the Economic Research and Analysis Division (ERA) of the Department of Finance as part of its regular update of the regional population projections. This document was prepared at the request of the City of St. John s. These projections are based on historical population data for the St. John s CMA produced by Statistics Canada. This is the most reliable information available on the population of the St. John s CMA and provides the benchmark for the projections. Population estimates for the St. John s CMA, combined with assumptions involving fertility rates, life expectancy and migration were used to project the region s population to 2036. Three population scenarios were developed (high, medium and low) by varying the projection assumptions. Recent Trends Population Levels 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total Population St. John s CMA Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance From 1986 to 1993 the St. John s CMA experienced an 8.5 per cent increase in population as natural population gains were bolstered by strong total net inmigration. 2 From 1993 to 1998 the population declined by 2.1 per cent from 178,767 to 175,009, reflecting in part the impact of the collapse of the groundfish fishery. Since then the St. John s CMA population has increased steadily, making especially strong gains over the last five years because of rising birth rates and strong net inmigration. In 2012 the population grew by 1.7 per cent to 205,891 and in 2013 it climbed another 1.2 per cent to 208,372. Provincially, population grew 0.3 per cent in 2012, while 2013 saw no change. Further population growth is expected in the St. John s CMA in 2014 and beyond. 1 The St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) includes the municipalities of Bauline, Bay Bulls, Conception Bay South, Flatrock, Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove, Mount Pearl, Paradise, Petty Harbour- Maddox Cove, Portugal Cove-St. Phillip s, Pouch Cove, St. John s and Torbay. 2 This includes international net migration, interprovincial net migration and intraprovincial net migration as well as the residual deviation. 2
Natural Change Between 1986 and 2013, the number of births in the St. John s CMA displayed three distinct periods of trend (see chart to the right). From 1986 to 2001, births fell roughly 34 per cent from around 2,400 in 1986-1987 to about 1,600 in 2000-2001, as fertility rates declined. This was followed by a period of relative stability from 2001 to 2006. From 2007 onwards net inmigration and a modest rebound in fertility rates caused the number of births to increase considerably, averaging over 2,000 during the time period. Over the last 27 years the number of deaths in the St. John s CMA has trended upwards as the population increased in size and aged. From 1986 to 2013, deaths in the region increased by roughly 30 per cent, reaching 1,492 in 2012-2013. Migration For the majority of the years since 1986, the St. John s CMA has experienced net inmigration (see chart to the right). The only noteworthy break in this pattern occurred around the time when the economy was adjusting to negative economic impacts of the groundfish moratoria introduced in the early 1990s. Between 1993 and 1998 the St. John s CMA recorded a net migration loss averaging almost 1,300 per year. From 1998 to 2001 total net migration was marginally positive, but at levels on average much lower than 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0-1,000-2,000 Natural Population Change St. John s CMA '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 those seen prior to 1993. From 2001 onwards, total net migration began to increase as the economy improved, peaking at almost 3,800 in 2009-2010. In 2013 total net in-migration was roughly 2,000. 3 Net Migration St. John s CMA Natural Change Deaths Births Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance
Projections Population projections for the St. John s CMA were produced using POPPS, the Population Projection System, a custom-built projection system housed in the Department of Finance which projects the population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and sub-provincial regions. The system uses information/assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to produce the three different population projection scenarios. Low, medium and high population scenarios were developed for consideration. The assumptions for each scenario are explained in the next section. Assumptions Fertility Rates For the low scenario, it was assumed that the total fertility rate for the St. John s CMA will gradually trend down from a current average of roughly 1.4 to 1.2 by 2036. This results in annual births trending down from around 2,000 in recent years to just below 1,700 in 2036. For the medium scenario, it was assumed that the total fertility rate remains stable at approximately 1.4 over the remainder of the projection period. This results in annual births increasing slightly from around 2,000 in recent years to approximately 2,200 in 2021, but returning to around 2,000 by 2036. For the high scenario, it was assumed that the region s total fertility rate gradually trends up from an estimated rate of 1.4 in 2013 to 1.6 in 2036 as economic conditions continue to improve. This results in annual births trending up from around 2,000 in recent years to approximately 2,500 in 2036. Mortality and Migration For the low scenario, life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 2.1 years between 2013 and 2036. Female life expectancy increases by 0.9 years over the same period. Net in-migration is assumed to continue to slow from 2014 to 2016 when net out-migration is expected for two years (2017 and 2018) as several major projects, including the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, Kami, and the Lower Churchill are completed. Net inmigration resumes temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but slows in 2023. Net out-migration is assumed to occur in 2024 as construction of Bay du Nord is completed. Net in-migration resumes in 2025 and gradually increases thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 680 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to 2036. For the medium scenario, life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 3.7 years between 2013 and 2036. Female life expectancy increases by 2.1 years over the same period. Modest net in-migration is assumed for the next three years, but then net outmigration occurs in 2017 and 2018 as several major projects, including the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, Kami, and the Lower Churchill are completed. Strong net in-migration is assumed to resume temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but net outmigration is assumed in 2024 as construction of Bay du Nord is completed. Net in-migration resumes in 2025 and gradually increases thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to 4
replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 1,020 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to 2036. For the high scenario, life expectancies continue to increase, but at a slightly faster pace than recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 5.1 years between 2013 and 2036. Female life expectancy increases by 3.3 years over the same period. Net in-migration is assumed to occur over the entire projection period; however, it fluctuates with economic activity. Net in-migration is assumed to increase temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but slows again in 2024 as construction is completed. Higher levels of net in-migration resume in 2025 and gradually increase thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 1,370 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to 2036. Results Total Population The results from the three population projection scenarios are illustrated in the chart to the right. In the low scenario, population increases by 5.7 per cent from 208,372 people in 2013 to 220,165 in 2036. The medium and high scenarios predict population will increase to 235,077 (12.8 per cent) and 249,924 (19.9 per cent) respectively by 2036. 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Total Population St. John s CMA, 1986 to 2036p High Medium Low Projected In all three scenarios the population structure 0 continues to age, with the '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16p '21p '26p '31p '36p proportion of the population 65 years of age and over in Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance the medium scenario increasing from 13.2 per cent in 2013 to almost 23 per cent in 2036 (detailed population projections by age for the St. John s CMA can be found in Appendix A). 5
Age Distribution of Population Gains As the population ages the distribution of population gains will change. As can be viewed in the chart to the right, between 1986 and 2011 the largest population gains were in the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 year age groups, while those under 25 showed the sharpest decline. In all three projection scenarios those aged 25 to 34 years show the weakest growth. However, in the low and medium scenarios all cohorts less than 65 years show declines or only modest growth with most of the population growth occurring in 65 years and over age groups. In the high scenario, 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000-15,000 Population Change by Age Group St. John s CMA Pop Ch. 1986 to 2011 Pop Ch. 2011 to 2036p (Low) Pop Ch. 2011 to 2036p (Medium) Pop Ch. 2011 to 2036p (High) < 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+ Age Group Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance there is growth in the less than 25 age group but nonetheless the 65 years and older age groups show the largest population increases. Households The number of households in the St. John s CMA has risen steadily over the past 27 years (see chart to the right). This can be partially attributed to the fact that the portion of the population heading households (known as the headship rate) tends to rise with an aging population. Thus the growth in the population aged 45 to 64 from 1986 to 2013 contributed to an increase in the number of households while the decline in young population, which has very low household headship rates, exerted a 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Total Households St. John s CMA, 1986 to 2036p High Medium Low Projected '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16p '21p '26p '31p '36p Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance 6
small drag on household formation. From 1986 to 2013 3 the number of households in the St. John s CMA increased from 47,905 to approximately 83,200 (or 73.6 per cent), even as the overall population in the region only increased from 164,806 to 202,533 (or 26.4 per cent). Household projections are produced by applying assumed future headship rates by age and gender to the population projections. Headship rates are assumed to stay constant at 2011 levels over the projection period in all three scenarios. In the low population scenario the total number of households increases by 12.5 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 93,530 in 2036 as population increases 5.7 per cent over the same period. In the medium scenario the number of households increases by 18.6 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 98,633 in 2036 as population increases by 12.8 per cent over the same period. In the high scenario, population growth together with aging produces further increases in the number of households. The number of households increases by 24.6 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 103,657 in 2036 as population rises by 19.9 per cent over the same period. As household formation outpaces population growth there is a natural decline in average household size. This occurs as the incidence of one-person and two-person households increase in the community. As the baby boomers continue to age and their children mature and leave home, two-person households become more common. In addition, the death of a spouse in an older household will result in more one-person households as the population ages. 3 The latest historical household estimate available from Statistics Canada is for 2011. Data from 2012 and 2013 are estimates by ERA. 7
Appendix A Population and Household Projections For the St. John s CMA Low, Medium, and High Scenario
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 164,806 12,290 13,249 14,353 15,311 16,262 14,892 14,205 12,787 10,047 7,305 6,437 6,131 5,739 5,533 4,503 2,937 1,571 925 329 1987 166,006 12,051 13,051 13,840 14,901 16,563 15,167 14,588 13,082 10,901 7,601 6,581 6,103 5,687 5,519 4,502 2,986 1,618 918 347 1988 167,880 11,978 12,844 13,585 14,674 16,705 15,523 14,862 13,468 11,524 8,223 6,688 6,198 5,655 5,467 4,397 3,127 1,686 924 352 1989 170,609 11,809 12,808 13,427 14,532 16,823 16,187 15,261 13,941 12,135 8,843 6,912 6,199 5,688 5,370 4,306 3,284 1,771 957 356 1990 173,334 11,791 12,599 13,224 14,452 16,872 16,875 15,604 14,446 12,761 9,501 7,189 6,216 5,762 5,121 4,353 3,403 1,847 973 345 1991 175,573 11,792 12,340 12,970 14,304 17,101 17,268 15,943 14,783 13,103 10,348 7,506 6,264 5,740 5,071 4,352 3,397 1,993 923 375 1992 177,170 11,797 12,363 12,848 13,866 17,299 17,046 15,956 15,059 13,349 11,161 7,775 6,338 5,807 5,068 4,484 3,448 2,102 1,015 389 1993 178,767 11,577 12,261 12,784 13,779 17,287 16,844 16,043 15,328 13,686 11,632 8,343 6,458 5,930 5,072 4,489 3,472 2,281 1,089 412 1994 178,149 11,244 11,945 12,723 13,592 16,617 16,268 15,957 15,334 13,949 12,068 8,806 6,673 5,939 5,130 4,497 3,426 2,420 1,155 406 1995 177,740 10,764 11,880 12,589 13,467 15,964 15,670 15,947 15,337 14,262 12,530 9,275 6,865 5,953 5,213 4,403 3,486 2,516 1,209 410 1996 176,888 10,206 11,710 12,499 13,387 15,284 15,009 15,802 15,294 14,448 12,751 9,994 7,126 5,908 5,173 4,467 3,616 2,493 1,321 400 1997 176,298 9,894 11,442 12,293 12,955 15,008 14,544 15,506 15,312 14,562 13,022 10,706 7,409 5,972 5,204 4,450 3,733 2,491 1,375 420 1998 175,009 9,647 11,150 12,042 12,638 14,665 14,017 14,911 15,230 14,556 13,225 11,143 7,923 6,048 5,290 4,446 3,701 2,493 1,456 428 1999 175,333 9,452 10,894 11,783 12,674 14,661 13,695 14,367 15,298 14,656 13,568 11,620 8,401 6,238 5,354 4,492 3,703 2,483 1,539 455 2000 176,065 9,411 10,444 11,641 12,611 14,724 13,542 13,929 15,400 14,828 13,883 12,099 8,842 6,480 5,360 4,637 3,613 2,562 1,592 467 2001 176,301 9,216 10,025 11,529 12,667 14,738 13,134 13,671 15,297 14,924 14,072 12,313 9,529 6,718 5,395 4,647 3,694 2,626 1,607 499 2002 177,681 8,998 9,934 11,439 12,775 14,535 13,296 13,592 15,165 15,081 14,252 12,663 10,249 7,016 5,506 4,651 3,678 2,728 1,583 540 2003 179,317 9,003 9,795 11,278 12,832 14,253 13,743 13,564 14,928 15,226 14,493 12,934 10,785 7,545 5,629 4,743 3,640 2,751 1,563 612 2004 181,576 9,124 9,753 11,110 12,720 14,429 14,042 13,607 14,581 15,567 14,623 13,348 11,291 8,024 5,840 4,785 3,755 2,742 1,565 670 2005 182,498 9,056 9,815 10,691 12,451 14,481 13,994 13,570 14,360 15,721 14,669 13,749 11,747 8,490 6,018 4,784 3,850 2,700 1,630 722 2006 183,777 9,164 9,674 10,503 12,140 14,664 13,925 13,540 14,133 15,741 14,898 13,955 12,064 9,167 6,309 4,833 3,842 2,777 1,688 760 2007 186,067 9,269 9,689 10,290 12,430 14,451 14,135 13,522 14,166 15,575 15,145 14,175 12,385 9,886 6,622 5,025 3,915 2,800 1,786 801 2008 189,771 9,621 9,864 10,228 12,564 14,752 14,483 13,877 14,121 15,391 15,403 14,396 12,710 10,488 7,179 5,163 4,068 2,832 1,801 830 2009 193,867 10,131 10,038 10,262 12,379 15,001 14,973 14,180 14,273 15,096 15,815 14,622 13,194 11,023 7,670 5,417 4,145 2,949 1,799 900 2010 198,436 10,567 10,056 10,418 11,929 15,800 15,569 14,499 14,590 14,990 16,020 14,885 13,660 11,607 8,098 5,648 4,219 3,049 1,850 982 2011 202,533 10,901 10,292 10,345 11,723 16,444 16,189 14,853 14,677 15,053 15,988 15,174 13,924 11,915 8,793 5,943 4,275 3,101 1,890 1,053 2012 205,891 10,880 10,540 10,259 11,361 16,487 16,857 15,500 14,784 15,186 15,969 15,394 14,129 12,281 9,574 6,175 4,431 3,137 1,853 1,094 2013 208,372 10,706 10,857 10,297 11,076 15,987 17,286 16,001 15,162 15,160 15,777 15,659 14,360 12,550 10,124 6,666 4,558 3,190 1,866 1,090 2014 209,395 10,547 11,251 10,324 10,944 15,322 17,057 16,439 15,297 14,997 15,337 15,910 14,337 12,954 10,579 7,088 4,744 3,239 1,919 1,110 2015 210,124 10,387 11,630 10,242 10,889 14,444 16,950 16,698 15,476 14,891 14,906 16,040 14,416 13,245 11,077 7,497 4,936 3,287 1,969 1,144 2016 210,615 10,348 11,887 10,288 10,775 13,745 16,550 16,880 15,591 14,833 14,592 15,920 14,618 13,386 11,393 8,125 5,173 3,327 2,004 1,180 2017 210,747 10,346 11,896 10,465 10,659 13,276 16,062 16,741 15,788 14,733 14,376 15,630 14,811 13,494 11,709 8,681 5,402 3,429 2,026 1,223 2018 210,776 10,307 11,823 10,702 10,610 12,892 15,350 16,513 16,024 14,823 14,150 15,247 15,024 13,538 12,060 9,144 5,730 3,525 2,080 1,234 2019 211,421 10,275 11,646 11,083 10,620 12,723 14,677 16,304 16,426 14,970 14,008 14,781 15,259 13,509 12,456 9,570 6,096 3,659 2,105 1,254 2020 212,647 10,181 11,501 11,486 10,601 12,839 13,974 16,299 16,762 15,235 13,943 14,369 15,374 13,581 12,752 10,016 6,460 3,817 2,159 1,298 2021 214,305 10,064 11,524 11,802 10,730 12,959 13,548 16,162 17,110 15,491 13,988 14,126 15,257 13,769 12,938 10,321 6,989 3,987 2,207 1,333 2022 215,003 9,829 11,573 11,838 10,916 13,011 13,251 15,818 17,088 15,769 14,002 13,950 14,983 13,958 13,065 10,624 7,501 4,186 2,280 1,361 2023 215,052 9,579 11,568 11,768 11,158 13,003 13,047 15,214 16,940 16,005 14,140 13,743 14,601 14,154 13,108 10,942 7,908 4,437 2,347 1,390 2024 214,635 9,277 11,460 11,578 11,479 12,946 12,819 14,525 16,683 16,323 14,241 13,572 14,141 14,357 13,084 11,299 8,262 4,717 2,458 1,414 2025 214,695 9,075 11,300 11,407 11,848 12,803 12,901 13,688 16,636 16,589 14,455 13,449 13,720 14,445 13,160 11,566 8,652 4,985 2,574 1,442 2026 215,020 8,889 11,086 11,371 12,140 12,872 12,924 13,149 16,383 16,849 14,625 13,417 13,436 14,320 13,339 11,733 8,917 5,409 2,694 1,467 2027 215,483 8,726 10,871 11,440 12,175 13,118 13,010 12,884 16,075 16,875 14,884 13,405 13,264 14,057 13,515 11,866 9,186 5,784 2,828 1,520 2028 216,146 8,625 10,669 11,473 12,123 13,461 13,188 12,776 15,579 16,836 15,186 13,566 13,098 13,745 13,729 11,911 9,458 6,123 3,030 1,570 2029 216,758 8,540 10,481 11,450 11,961 13,943 13,305 12,774 15,021 16,740 15,596 13,743 12,987 13,313 13,939 11,901 9,800 6,395 3,230 1,639 2030 217,352 8,502 10,306 11,375 11,810 14,473 13,264 12,964 14,306 16,736 15,922 13,957 12,913 12,938 14,047 11,985 10,040 6,683 3,423 1,708 2031 218,116 8,475 10,165 11,189 11,790 14,822 13,481 13,086 13,837 16,564 16,229 14,156 12,923 12,686 13,935 12,176 10,190 6,897 3,750 1,765 2032 218,608 8,477 10,027 11,005 11,847 14,823 13,803 13,229 13,631 16,300 16,251 14,422 12,933 12,550 13,697 12,328 10,311 7,104 4,022 1,848 2033 219,112 8,493 9,924 10,820 11,879 14,704 14,191 13,438 13,550 15,838 16,260 14,687 13,090 12,393 13,373 12,549 10,366 7,334 4,257 1,966 2034 219,546 8,538 9,860 10,639 11,839 14,450 14,761 13,608 13,557 15,290 16,148 15,078 13,262 12,293 12,986 12,737 10,359 7,589 4,471 2,081 2035 219,867 8,581 9,812 10,467 11,757 14,214 15,319 13,577 13,749 14,595 16,133 15,361 13,475 12,233 12,648 12,840 10,427 7,781 4,684 2,214 2036 220,165 8,651 9,802 10,329 11,546 14,110 15,669 13,747 13,860 14,156 15,938 15,607 13,624 12,252 12,391 12,752 10,596 7,884 4,845 2,406
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Males 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 81,790 6,301 6,783 7,407 7,732 8,109 7,339 7,004 6,432 5,109 3,729 3,207 2,986 2,838 2,582 1,983 1,220 575 313 141 1987 82,085 6,140 6,683 7,161 7,560 8,147 7,489 7,166 6,554 5,475 3,888 3,269 2,989 2,798 2,568 1,965 1,200 595 300 138 1988 82,737 6,104 6,584 7,040 7,452 8,174 7,652 7,286 6,693 5,791 4,136 3,345 3,032 2,744 2,551 1,909 1,224 594 295 131 1989 83,942 5,989 6,544 6,990 7,394 8,189 7,990 7,497 6,938 6,034 4,455 3,483 3,048 2,725 2,506 1,868 1,248 619 300 125 1990 85,124 5,983 6,455 6,865 7,322 8,236 8,318 7,703 7,154 6,325 4,757 3,643 3,058 2,731 2,412 1,852 1,288 598 314 110 1991 86,059 5,958 6,340 6,659 7,347 8,347 8,466 7,855 7,331 6,474 5,148 3,823 3,088 2,723 2,349 1,845 1,278 635 284 109 1992 87,040 5,965 6,370 6,555 7,162 8,531 8,405 7,929 7,429 6,582 5,592 3,926 3,135 2,755 2,341 1,920 1,301 691 331 120 1993 87,714 5,863 6,326 6,510 7,143 8,526 8,288 7,919 7,564 6,698 5,862 4,136 3,217 2,844 2,301 1,940 1,299 785 362 131 1994 87,155 5,712 6,113 6,503 7,023 8,179 7,988 7,849 7,547 6,851 5,968 4,349 3,338 2,855 2,350 1,929 1,267 817 384 133 1995 86,800 5,496 6,060 6,412 6,925 7,882 7,728 7,797 7,530 6,967 6,160 4,555 3,436 2,891 2,371 1,915 1,312 841 389 133 1996 86,128 5,216 5,946 6,393 6,795 7,596 7,400 7,628 7,435 7,093 6,264 4,921 3,557 2,858 2,334 1,936 1,391 812 422 131 1997 85,842 5,033 5,823 6,275 6,577 7,499 7,185 7,468 7,482 7,131 6,401 5,243 3,668 2,905 2,355 1,935 1,444 828 456 134 1998 84,847 4,916 5,648 6,141 6,433 7,292 6,846 7,109 7,410 7,063 6,450 5,474 3,899 2,943 2,429 1,919 1,430 831 488 126 1999 84,926 4,804 5,534 5,978 6,430 7,231 6,691 6,857 7,449 7,151 6,612 5,658 4,170 3,019 2,470 1,944 1,446 823 513 146 2000 85,266 4,799 5,313 5,922 6,378 7,198 6,653 6,688 7,445 7,272 6,747 5,909 4,349 3,161 2,494 1,988 1,429 868 505 148 2001 85,238 4,755 5,075 5,849 6,406 7,134 6,451 6,628 7,359 7,253 6,806 6,034 4,670 3,277 2,524 1,987 1,482 876 508 164 2002 85,993 4,649 5,048 5,790 6,476 7,066 6,562 6,623 7,257 7,306 6,916 6,174 5,015 3,410 2,631 1,984 1,508 937 477 164 2003 86,931 4,614 5,013 5,712 6,482 7,056 6,782 6,631 7,135 7,373 7,034 6,283 5,324 3,662 2,695 2,066 1,474 962 457 176 2004 88,136 4,703 4,992 5,611 6,427 7,196 6,933 6,688 6,966 7,540 7,104 6,531 5,485 3,935 2,791 2,127 1,527 971 441 168 2005 88,685 4,678 5,058 5,452 6,278 7,246 6,899 6,724 6,901 7,558 7,091 6,689 5,750 4,137 2,896 2,177 1,540 995 447 169 2006 89,316 4,720 5,031 5,363 6,102 7,301 6,911 6,674 6,837 7,606 7,126 6,788 5,908 4,483 3,024 2,227 1,525 1,056 471 163 2007 90,354 4,764 5,031 5,267 6,263 7,152 7,037 6,593 6,936 7,460 7,269 6,916 6,047 4,830 3,140 2,328 1,573 1,071 511 166 2008 92,201 4,903 5,101 5,223 6,318 7,371 7,271 6,759 6,899 7,377 7,428 7,011 6,162 5,160 3,391 2,353 1,679 1,061 551 183 2009 94,290 5,121 5,230 5,225 6,169 7,497 7,483 6,952 6,998 7,265 7,640 7,207 6,439 5,336 3,682 2,460 1,728 1,110 564 184 2010 96,805 5,325 5,222 5,328 5,947 7,921 7,850 7,129 7,194 7,303 7,700 7,382 6,673 5,675 3,837 2,606 1,777 1,111 609 216 2011 98,946 5,503 5,316 5,323 5,817 8,302 8,163 7,291 7,236 7,370 7,742 7,459 6,838 5,836 4,194 2,778 1,804 1,119 622 233 2012 100,666 5,512 5,407 5,315 5,693 8,234 8,498 7,702 7,222 7,467 7,736 7,536 6,953 6,026 4,577 2,859 1,928 1,142 621 238 2013 101,905 5,479 5,534 5,292 5,622 7,904 8,683 8,037 7,393 7,443 7,644 7,661 7,094 6,094 4,898 3,075 2,015 1,192 611 234 2014 102,260 5,387 5,726 5,294 5,572 7,604 8,494 8,223 7,458 7,371 7,437 7,785 7,066 6,286 5,087 3,283 2,098 1,232 626 231 2015 102,565 5,304 5,909 5,236 5,589 7,185 8,426 8,336 7,522 7,324 7,261 7,805 7,092 6,428 5,329 3,458 2,208 1,264 639 250 2016 102,624 5,275 6,002 5,246 5,577 6,844 8,235 8,339 7,568 7,279 7,128 7,748 7,167 6,494 5,483 3,718 2,325 1,284 652 260 2017 102,527 5,269 6,003 5,332 5,520 6,641 8,009 8,173 7,668 7,182 7,062 7,583 7,273 6,507 5,641 3,963 2,423 1,328 679 271 2018 102,400 5,257 5,955 5,455 5,460 6,460 7,672 7,963 7,801 7,224 6,975 7,367 7,396 6,492 5,809 4,185 2,568 1,374 716 271 2019 102,579 5,241 5,855 5,651 5,468 6,367 7,356 7,813 7,981 7,283 6,930 7,140 7,507 6,459 6,000 4,353 2,745 1,422 738 270 2020 103,137 5,194 5,783 5,842 5,427 6,479 7,028 7,796 8,129 7,405 6,906 6,975 7,520 6,493 6,138 4,555 2,897 1,507 776 287 2021 103,853 5,139 5,782 5,990 5,477 6,587 6,813 7,758 8,226 7,535 6,912 6,895 7,467 6,552 6,234 4,701 3,113 1,578 795 299 2022 104,090 5,011 5,818 6,003 5,574 6,608 6,700 7,626 8,132 7,683 6,879 6,851 7,303 6,663 6,261 4,845 3,337 1,652 832 312 2023 104,026 4,876 5,819 5,962 5,708 6,576 6,616 7,371 7,973 7,825 6,953 6,774 7,094 6,778 6,243 4,993 3,529 1,754 857 325 2024 103,671 4,730 5,762 5,858 5,875 6,533 6,525 7,051 7,802 7,960 6,993 6,699 6,872 6,871 6,221 5,154 3,667 1,868 896 334 2025 103,571 4,617 5,690 5,763 6,049 6,447 6,597 6,648 7,757 8,064 7,078 6,643 6,695 6,873 6,253 5,280 3,843 1,972 957 345 2026 103,676 4,531 5,582 5,750 6,175 6,450 6,686 6,387 7,677 8,128 7,164 6,608 6,591 6,821 6,313 5,360 3,968 2,116 1,013 356 2027 103,797 4,456 5,477 5,783 6,185 6,569 6,730 6,284 7,555 8,057 7,307 6,571 6,550 6,667 6,416 5,399 4,095 2,261 1,057 378 2028 104,015 4,395 5,380 5,810 6,156 6,742 6,772 6,249 7,355 7,953 7,486 6,644 6,501 6,490 6,550 5,377 4,230 2,400 1,133 392 2029 104,203 4,346 5,285 5,794 6,051 6,962 6,821 6,267 7,111 7,873 7,673 6,724 6,468 6,295 6,650 5,367 4,377 2,500 1,221 418 2030 104,427 4,331 5,201 5,760 5,980 7,207 6,775 6,412 6,771 7,858 7,827 6,825 6,441 6,144 6,649 5,409 4,492 2,612 1,298 435 2031 104,699 4,317 5,124 5,669 5,963 7,338 6,836 6,543 6,550 7,808 7,911 6,917 6,453 6,054 6,612 5,475 4,562 2,704 1,408 455 2032 104,904 4,324 5,062 5,568 5,999 7,329 7,004 6,611 6,483 7,727 7,845 7,060 6,429 6,039 6,474 5,566 4,599 2,788 1,519 478 2033 105,056 4,334 5,001 5,478 6,012 7,242 7,214 6,687 6,465 7,540 7,773 7,223 6,505 5,994 6,299 5,690 4,584 2,887 1,616 512 2034 105,233 4,353 4,978 5,391 5,999 7,099 7,476 6,776 6,506 7,301 7,685 7,390 6,596 5,969 6,118 5,786 4,583 2,988 1,697 542 2035 105,313 4,377 4,951 5,298 5,962 6,959 7,746 6,711 6,660 6,979 7,664 7,514 6,688 5,950 5,999 5,798 4,617 3,073 1,785 582 2036 105,400 4,405 4,952 5,232 5,845 6,898 7,887 6,773 6,775 6,775 7,598 7,580 6,768 5,952 5,907 5,768 4,678 3,121 1,851 635
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Females 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 83,016 5,989 6,466 6,946 7,579 8,153 7,553 7,201 6,355 4,938 3,576 3,230 3,145 2,901 2,951 2,520 1,717 996 612 188 1987 83,921 5,911 6,368 6,679 7,341 8,416 7,678 7,422 6,528 5,426 3,713 3,312 3,114 2,889 2,951 2,537 1,786 1,023 618 209 1988 85,143 5,874 6,260 6,545 7,222 8,531 7,871 7,576 6,775 5,733 4,087 3,343 3,166 2,911 2,916 2,488 1,903 1,092 629 221 1989 86,667 5,820 6,264 6,437 7,138 8,634 8,197 7,764 7,003 6,101 4,388 3,429 3,151 2,963 2,864 2,438 2,036 1,152 657 231 1990 88,210 5,808 6,144 6,359 7,130 8,636 8,557 7,901 7,292 6,436 4,744 3,546 3,158 3,031 2,709 2,501 2,115 1,249 659 235 1991 89,514 5,834 6,000 6,311 6,957 8,754 8,802 8,088 7,452 6,629 5,200 3,683 3,176 3,017 2,722 2,507 2,119 1,358 639 266 1992 90,130 5,832 5,993 6,293 6,704 8,768 8,641 8,027 7,630 6,767 5,569 3,849 3,203 3,052 2,727 2,564 2,147 1,411 684 269 1993 91,053 5,714 5,935 6,274 6,636 8,761 8,556 8,124 7,764 6,988 5,770 4,207 3,241 3,086 2,771 2,549 2,173 1,496 727 281 1994 90,994 5,532 5,832 6,220 6,569 8,438 8,280 8,108 7,787 7,098 6,100 4,457 3,335 3,084 2,780 2,568 2,159 1,603 771 273 1995 90,940 5,268 5,820 6,177 6,542 8,082 7,942 8,150 7,807 7,295 6,370 4,720 3,429 3,062 2,842 2,488 2,174 1,675 820 277 1996 90,760 4,990 5,764 6,106 6,592 7,688 7,609 8,174 7,859 7,355 6,487 5,073 3,569 3,050 2,839 2,531 2,225 1,681 899 269 1997 90,456 4,861 5,619 6,018 6,378 7,509 7,359 8,038 7,830 7,431 6,621 5,463 3,741 3,067 2,849 2,515 2,289 1,663 919 286 1998 90,162 4,731 5,502 5,901 6,205 7,373 7,171 7,802 7,820 7,493 6,775 5,669 4,024 3,105 2,861 2,527 2,271 1,662 968 302 1999 90,407 4,648 5,360 5,805 6,244 7,430 7,004 7,510 7,849 7,505 6,956 5,962 4,231 3,219 2,884 2,548 2,257 1,660 1,026 309 2000 90,799 4,612 5,131 5,719 6,233 7,526 6,889 7,241 7,955 7,556 7,136 6,190 4,493 3,319 2,866 2,649 2,184 1,694 1,087 319 2001 91,063 4,461 4,950 5,680 6,261 7,604 6,683 7,043 7,938 7,671 7,266 6,279 4,859 3,441 2,871 2,660 2,212 1,750 1,099 335 2002 91,688 4,349 4,886 5,649 6,299 7,469 6,734 6,969 7,908 7,775 7,336 6,489 5,234 3,606 2,875 2,667 2,170 1,791 1,106 376 2003 92,386 4,389 4,782 5,566 6,350 7,197 6,961 6,933 7,793 7,853 7,459 6,651 5,461 3,883 2,934 2,677 2,166 1,789 1,106 436 2004 93,440 4,421 4,761 5,499 6,293 7,233 7,109 6,919 7,615 8,027 7,519 6,817 5,806 4,089 3,049 2,658 2,228 1,771 1,124 502 2005 93,813 4,378 4,757 5,239 6,173 7,235 7,095 6,846 7,459 8,163 7,578 7,060 5,997 4,353 3,122 2,607 2,310 1,705 1,183 553 2006 94,461 4,444 4,643 5,140 6,038 7,363 7,014 6,866 7,296 8,135 7,772 7,167 6,156 4,684 3,285 2,606 2,317 1,721 1,217 597 2007 95,713 4,505 4,658 5,023 6,167 7,299 7,098 6,929 7,230 8,115 7,876 7,259 6,338 5,056 3,482 2,697 2,342 1,729 1,275 635 2008 97,570 4,718 4,763 5,005 6,246 7,381 7,212 7,118 7,222 8,014 7,975 7,385 6,548 5,328 3,788 2,810 2,389 1,771 1,250 647 2009 99,577 5,010 4,808 5,037 6,210 7,504 7,490 7,228 7,275 7,831 8,175 7,415 6,755 5,687 3,988 2,957 2,417 1,839 1,235 716 2010 101,631 5,242 4,834 5,090 5,982 7,879 7,719 7,370 7,396 7,687 8,320 7,503 6,987 5,932 4,261 3,042 2,442 1,938 1,241 766 2011 103,587 5,398 4,976 5,022 5,906 8,142 8,026 7,562 7,441 7,683 8,246 7,715 7,086 6,079 4,599 3,165 2,471 1,982 1,268 820 2012 105,225 5,368 5,133 4,944 5,668 8,253 8,359 7,798 7,562 7,719 8,233 7,858 7,176 6,255 4,997 3,316 2,503 1,995 1,232 856 2013 106,467 5,227 5,323 5,005 5,454 8,083 8,603 7,964 7,769 7,717 8,133 7,998 7,266 6,456 5,226 3,591 2,543 1,998 1,255 856 2014 107,135 5,160 5,525 5,030 5,372 7,718 8,563 8,216 7,839 7,626 7,900 8,125 7,271 6,668 5,492 3,805 2,646 2,007 1,293 879 2015 107,559 5,083 5,721 5,006 5,300 7,259 8,524 8,362 7,954 7,567 7,645 8,235 7,324 6,817 5,748 4,039 2,728 2,023 1,330 894 2016 107,991 5,073 5,885 5,042 5,198 6,901 8,315 8,541 8,023 7,554 7,464 8,172 7,451 6,892 5,910 4,407 2,848 2,043 1,352 920 2017 108,220 5,077 5,893 5,133 5,139 6,635 8,053 8,568 8,120 7,551 7,314 8,047 7,538 6,987 6,068 4,718 2,979 2,101 1,347 952 2018 108,376 5,050 5,868 5,247 5,150 6,432 7,678 8,550 8,223 7,599 7,175 7,880 7,628 7,046 6,251 4,959 3,162 2,151 1,364 963 2019 108,842 5,034 5,791 5,432 5,152 6,356 7,321 8,491 8,445 7,687 7,078 7,641 7,752 7,050 6,456 5,217 3,351 2,237 1,367 984 2020 109,510 4,987 5,718 5,644 5,174 6,360 6,946 8,503 8,633 7,830 7,037 7,394 7,854 7,088 6,614 5,461 3,563 2,310 1,383 1,011 2021 110,452 4,925 5,742 5,812 5,253 6,372 6,735 8,404 8,884 7,956 7,076 7,231 7,790 7,217 6,704 5,620 3,876 2,409 1,412 1,034 2022 110,913 4,818 5,755 5,835 5,342 6,403 6,551 8,192 8,956 8,086 7,123 7,099 7,680 7,295 6,804 5,779 4,164 2,534 1,448 1,049 2023 111,026 4,703 5,749 5,806 5,450 6,427 6,431 7,843 8,967 8,180 7,187 6,969 7,507 7,376 6,865 5,949 4,379 2,683 1,490 1,065 2024 110,964 4,547 5,698 5,720 5,604 6,413 6,294 7,474 8,881 8,363 7,248 6,873 7,269 7,486 6,863 6,145 4,595 2,849 1,562 1,080 2025 111,124 4,458 5,610 5,644 5,799 6,356 6,304 7,040 8,879 8,525 7,377 6,806 7,025 7,572 6,907 6,286 4,809 3,013 1,617 1,097 2026 111,344 4,358 5,504 5,621 5,965 6,422 6,238 6,762 8,706 8,721 7,461 6,809 6,845 7,499 7,026 6,373 4,949 3,293 1,681 1,111 2027 111,686 4,270 5,394 5,657 5,990 6,549 6,280 6,600 8,520 8,818 7,577 6,834 6,714 7,390 7,099 6,467 5,091 3,523 1,771 1,142 2028 112,131 4,230 5,289 5,663 5,967 6,719 6,416 6,527 8,224 8,883 7,700 6,922 6,597 7,255 7,179 6,534 5,228 3,723 1,897 1,178 2029 112,555 4,194 5,196 5,656 5,910 6,981 6,484 6,507 7,910 8,867 7,923 7,019 6,519 7,018 7,289 6,534 5,423 3,895 2,009 1,221 2030 112,925 4,171 5,105 5,615 5,830 7,266 6,489 6,552 7,535 8,878 8,095 7,132 6,472 6,794 7,398 6,576 5,548 4,071 2,125 1,273 2031 113,417 4,158 5,041 5,520 5,827 7,484 6,645 6,543 7,287 8,756 8,318 7,239 6,470 6,632 7,323 6,701 5,628 4,193 2,342 1,310 2032 113,704 4,153 4,965 5,437 5,848 7,494 6,799 6,618 7,148 8,573 8,406 7,362 6,504 6,511 7,223 6,762 5,712 4,316 2,503 1,370 2033 114,056 4,159 4,923 5,342 5,867 7,462 6,977 6,751 7,085 8,298 8,487 7,464 6,585 6,399 7,074 6,859 5,782 4,447 2,641 1,454 2034 114,313 4,185 4,882 5,248 5,840 7,351 7,285 6,832 7,051 7,989 8,463 7,688 6,666 6,324 6,868 6,951 5,776 4,601 2,774 1,539 2035 114,554 4,204 4,861 5,169 5,795 7,255 7,573 6,866 7,089 7,616 8,469 7,847 6,787 6,283 6,649 7,042 5,810 4,708 2,899 1,632 2036 114,765 4,246 4,850 5,097 5,701 7,212 7,782 6,974 7,085 7,381 8,340 8,027 6,856 6,300 6,484 6,984 5,918 4,763 2,994 1,771
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 164,806 12,290 13,249 14,353 15,311 16,262 14,892 14,205 12,787 10,047 7,305 6,437 6,131 5,739 5,533 4,503 2,937 1,571 925 329 1987 166,006 12,051 13,051 13,840 14,901 16,563 15,167 14,588 13,082 10,901 7,601 6,581 6,103 5,687 5,519 4,502 2,986 1,618 918 347 1988 167,880 11,978 12,844 13,585 14,674 16,705 15,523 14,862 13,468 11,524 8,223 6,688 6,198 5,655 5,467 4,397 3,127 1,686 924 352 1989 170,609 11,809 12,808 13,427 14,532 16,823 16,187 15,261 13,941 12,135 8,843 6,912 6,199 5,688 5,370 4,306 3,284 1,771 957 356 1990 173,334 11,791 12,599 13,224 14,452 16,872 16,875 15,604 14,446 12,761 9,501 7,189 6,216 5,762 5,121 4,353 3,403 1,847 973 345 1991 175,573 11,792 12,340 12,970 14,304 17,101 17,268 15,943 14,783 13,103 10,348 7,506 6,264 5,740 5,071 4,352 3,397 1,993 923 375 1992 177,170 11,797 12,363 12,848 13,866 17,299 17,046 15,956 15,059 13,349 11,161 7,775 6,338 5,807 5,068 4,484 3,448 2,102 1,015 389 1993 178,767 11,577 12,261 12,784 13,779 17,287 16,844 16,043 15,328 13,686 11,632 8,343 6,458 5,930 5,072 4,489 3,472 2,281 1,089 412 1994 178,149 11,244 11,945 12,723 13,592 16,617 16,268 15,957 15,334 13,949 12,068 8,806 6,673 5,939 5,130 4,497 3,426 2,420 1,155 406 1995 177,740 10,764 11,880 12,589 13,467 15,964 15,670 15,947 15,337 14,262 12,530 9,275 6,865 5,953 5,213 4,403 3,486 2,516 1,209 410 1996 176,888 10,206 11,710 12,499 13,387 15,284 15,009 15,802 15,294 14,448 12,751 9,994 7,126 5,908 5,173 4,467 3,616 2,493 1,321 400 1997 176,298 9,894 11,442 12,293 12,955 15,008 14,544 15,506 15,312 14,562 13,022 10,706 7,409 5,972 5,204 4,450 3,733 2,491 1,375 420 1998 175,009 9,647 11,150 12,042 12,638 14,665 14,017 14,911 15,230 14,556 13,225 11,143 7,923 6,048 5,290 4,446 3,701 2,493 1,456 428 1999 175,333 9,452 10,894 11,783 12,674 14,661 13,695 14,367 15,298 14,656 13,568 11,620 8,401 6,238 5,354 4,492 3,703 2,483 1,539 455 2000 176,065 9,411 10,444 11,641 12,611 14,724 13,542 13,929 15,400 14,828 13,883 12,099 8,842 6,480 5,360 4,637 3,613 2,562 1,592 467 2001 176,301 9,216 10,025 11,529 12,667 14,738 13,134 13,671 15,297 14,924 14,072 12,313 9,529 6,718 5,395 4,647 3,694 2,626 1,607 499 2002 177,681 8,998 9,934 11,439 12,775 14,535 13,296 13,592 15,165 15,081 14,252 12,663 10,249 7,016 5,506 4,651 3,678 2,728 1,583 540 2003 179,317 9,003 9,795 11,278 12,832 14,253 13,743 13,564 14,928 15,226 14,493 12,934 10,785 7,545 5,629 4,743 3,640 2,751 1,563 612 2004 181,576 9,124 9,753 11,110 12,720 14,429 14,042 13,607 14,581 15,567 14,623 13,348 11,291 8,024 5,840 4,785 3,755 2,742 1,565 670 2005 182,498 9,056 9,815 10,691 12,451 14,481 13,994 13,570 14,360 15,721 14,669 13,749 11,747 8,490 6,018 4,784 3,850 2,700 1,630 722 2006 183,777 9,164 9,674 10,503 12,140 14,664 13,925 13,540 14,133 15,741 14,898 13,955 12,064 9,167 6,309 4,833 3,842 2,777 1,688 760 2007 186,067 9,269 9,689 10,290 12,430 14,451 14,135 13,522 14,166 15,575 15,145 14,175 12,385 9,886 6,622 5,025 3,915 2,800 1,786 801 2008 189,771 9,621 9,864 10,228 12,564 14,752 14,483 13,877 14,121 15,391 15,403 14,396 12,710 10,488 7,179 5,163 4,068 2,832 1,801 830 2009 193,867 10,131 10,038 10,262 12,379 15,001 14,973 14,180 14,273 15,096 15,815 14,622 13,194 11,023 7,670 5,417 4,145 2,949 1,799 900 2010 198,436 10,567 10,056 10,418 11,929 15,800 15,569 14,499 14,590 14,990 16,020 14,885 13,660 11,607 8,098 5,648 4,219 3,049 1,850 982 2011 202,533 10,901 10,292 10,345 11,723 16,444 16,189 14,853 14,677 15,053 15,988 15,174 13,924 11,915 8,793 5,943 4,275 3,101 1,890 1,053 2012 205,891 10,880 10,540 10,259 11,361 16,487 16,857 15,500 14,784 15,186 15,969 15,394 14,129 12,281 9,574 6,175 4,431 3,137 1,853 1,094 2013 208,372 10,706 10,857 10,297 11,076 15,987 17,286 16,001 15,162 15,160 15,777 15,659 14,360 12,550 10,124 6,666 4,558 3,190 1,866 1,090 2014 209,693 10,562 11,271 10,337 10,954 15,355 17,119 16,483 15,318 15,031 15,359 15,918 14,337 12,954 10,585 7,091 4,748 3,239 1,919 1,113 2015 210,687 10,431 11,666 10,263 10,907 14,509 17,050 16,773 15,532 14,948 14,947 16,060 14,433 13,252 11,080 7,497 4,937 3,285 1,973 1,144 2016 211,567 10,427 11,941 10,336 10,808 13,842 16,714 17,003 15,678 14,909 14,654 15,956 14,648 13,409 11,409 8,133 5,180 3,331 2,007 1,182 2017 212,114 10,505 11,981 10,527 10,702 13,400 16,259 16,919 15,907 14,858 14,470 15,681 14,845 13,524 11,737 8,695 5,411 3,434 2,029 1,230 2018 212,584 10,552 11,930 10,780 10,662 13,037 15,599 16,737 16,187 14,964 14,266 15,322 15,079 13,584 12,090 9,171 5,751 3,539 2,094 1,240 2019 213,658 10,624 11,787 11,178 10,686 12,882 14,950 16,579 16,627 15,138 14,147 14,876 15,326 13,561 12,505 9,598 6,126 3,680 2,128 1,260 2020 215,398 10,634 11,672 11,605 10,681 13,018 14,288 16,629 17,011 15,437 14,124 14,485 15,445 13,650 12,812 10,064 6,502 3,846 2,183 1,312 2021 217,587 10,621 11,725 11,948 10,834 13,158 13,910 16,555 17,402 15,727 14,199 14,266 15,357 13,843 13,010 10,379 7,034 4,023 2,241 1,355 2022 218,845 10,471 11,845 12,005 11,039 13,228 13,646 16,256 17,436 16,042 14,241 14,124 15,097 14,049 13,156 10,705 7,562 4,234 2,319 1,390 2023 219,472 10,305 11,943 11,965 11,299 13,243 13,462 15,689 17,340 16,327 14,413 13,944 14,730 14,265 13,212 11,035 7,990 4,492 2,393 1,425 2024 219,701 10,076 11,946 11,809 11,640 13,210 13,272 15,041 17,150 16,686 14,552 13,805 14,296 14,484 13,203 11,413 8,359 4,791 2,514 1,454 2025 220,412 9,946 11,903 11,665 12,036 13,102 13,367 14,252 17,153 16,992 14,801 13,717 13,905 14,593 13,299 11,697 8,766 5,074 2,649 1,495 2026 221,443 9,832 11,806 11,676 12,355 13,201 13,414 13,753 16,965 17,311 15,010 13,724 13,638 14,490 13,497 11,887 9,053 5,521 2,778 1,532 2027 222,607 9,736 11,689 11,817 12,419 13,468 13,538 13,508 16,702 17,395 15,312 13,742 13,502 14,250 13,700 12,042 9,349 5,917 2,929 1,592 2028 223,948 9,700 11,564 11,939 12,396 13,838 13,720 13,429 16,250 17,415 15,648 13,945 13,366 13,956 13,935 12,112 9,643 6,278 3,154 1,660 2029 225,324 9,677 11,452 12,024 12,264 14,351 13,874 13,458 15,729 17,378 16,112 14,152 13,293 13,549 14,174 12,120 10,019 6,582 3,380 1,736 2030 226,771 9,711 11,364 12,067 12,151 14,920 13,875 13,672 15,074 17,436 16,479 14,411 13,253 13,201 14,313 12,230 10,297 6,895 3,595 1,827 2031 228,332 9,756 11,295 11,989 12,182 15,303 14,122 13,814 14,640 17,318 16,840 14,652 13,302 12,978 14,222 12,452 10,475 7,143 3,954 1,895 2032 229,716 9,839 11,231 11,898 12,316 15,357 14,478 13,994 14,469 17,121 16,923 14,957 13,352 12,870 14,008 12,634 10,617 7,385 4,261 2,006 2033 231,171 9,940 11,199 11,795 12,445 15,293 14,927 14,242 14,433 16,710 16,995 15,276 13,553 12,751 13,711 12,887 10,701 7,643 4,531 2,139 2034 232,484 10,079 11,197 11,693 12,525 15,071 15,523 14,447 14,450 16,193 16,952 15,709 13,763 12,689 13,347 13,111 10,729 7,940 4,780 2,286 2035 233,759 10,212 11,227 11,593 12,553 14,890 16,128 14,461 14,679 15,545 16,985 16,044 14,021 12,672 13,036 13,244 10,823 8,168 5,037 2,441 2036 235,077 10,375 11,298 11,523 12,463 14,851 16,531 14,654 14,833 15,142 16,853 16,355 14,219 12,730 12,816 13,182 11,034 8,307 5,235 2,676
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Males 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 81,790 6,301 6,783 7,407 7,732 8,109 7,339 7,004 6,432 5,109 3,729 3,207 2,986 2,838 2,582 1,983 1,220 575 313 141 1987 82,085 6,140 6,683 7,161 7,560 8,147 7,489 7,166 6,554 5,475 3,888 3,269 2,989 2,798 2,568 1,965 1,200 595 300 138 1988 82,737 6,104 6,584 7,040 7,452 8,174 7,652 7,286 6,693 5,791 4,136 3,345 3,032 2,744 2,551 1,909 1,224 594 295 131 1989 83,942 5,989 6,544 6,990 7,394 8,189 7,990 7,497 6,938 6,034 4,455 3,483 3,048 2,725 2,506 1,868 1,248 619 300 125 1990 85,124 5,983 6,455 6,865 7,322 8,236 8,318 7,703 7,154 6,325 4,757 3,643 3,058 2,731 2,412 1,852 1,288 598 314 110 1991 86,059 5,958 6,340 6,659 7,347 8,347 8,466 7,855 7,331 6,474 5,148 3,823 3,088 2,723 2,349 1,845 1,278 635 284 109 1992 87,040 5,965 6,370 6,555 7,162 8,531 8,405 7,929 7,429 6,582 5,592 3,926 3,135 2,755 2,341 1,920 1,301 691 331 120 1993 87,714 5,863 6,326 6,510 7,143 8,526 8,288 7,919 7,564 6,698 5,862 4,136 3,217 2,844 2,301 1,940 1,299 785 362 131 1994 87,155 5,712 6,113 6,503 7,023 8,179 7,988 7,849 7,547 6,851 5,968 4,349 3,338 2,855 2,350 1,929 1,267 817 384 133 1995 86,800 5,496 6,060 6,412 6,925 7,882 7,728 7,797 7,530 6,967 6,160 4,555 3,436 2,891 2,371 1,915 1,312 841 389 133 1996 86,128 5,216 5,946 6,393 6,795 7,596 7,400 7,628 7,435 7,093 6,264 4,921 3,557 2,858 2,334 1,936 1,391 812 422 131 1997 85,842 5,033 5,823 6,275 6,577 7,499 7,185 7,468 7,482 7,131 6,401 5,243 3,668 2,905 2,355 1,935 1,444 828 456 134 1998 84,847 4,916 5,648 6,141 6,433 7,292 6,846 7,109 7,410 7,063 6,450 5,474 3,899 2,943 2,429 1,919 1,430 831 488 126 1999 84,926 4,804 5,534 5,978 6,430 7,231 6,691 6,857 7,449 7,151 6,612 5,658 4,170 3,019 2,470 1,944 1,446 823 513 146 2000 85,266 4,799 5,313 5,922 6,378 7,198 6,653 6,688 7,445 7,272 6,747 5,909 4,349 3,161 2,494 1,988 1,429 868 505 148 2001 85,238 4,755 5,075 5,849 6,406 7,134 6,451 6,628 7,359 7,253 6,806 6,034 4,670 3,277 2,524 1,987 1,482 876 508 164 2002 85,993 4,649 5,048 5,790 6,476 7,066 6,562 6,623 7,257 7,306 6,916 6,174 5,015 3,410 2,631 1,984 1,508 937 477 164 2003 86,931 4,614 5,013 5,712 6,482 7,056 6,782 6,631 7,135 7,373 7,034 6,283 5,324 3,662 2,695 2,066 1,474 962 457 176 2004 88,136 4,703 4,992 5,611 6,427 7,196 6,933 6,688 6,966 7,540 7,104 6,531 5,485 3,935 2,791 2,127 1,527 971 441 168 2005 88,685 4,678 5,058 5,452 6,278 7,246 6,899 6,724 6,901 7,558 7,091 6,689 5,750 4,137 2,896 2,177 1,540 995 447 169 2006 89,316 4,720 5,031 5,363 6,102 7,301 6,911 6,674 6,837 7,606 7,126 6,788 5,908 4,483 3,024 2,227 1,525 1,056 471 163 2007 90,354 4,764 5,031 5,267 6,263 7,152 7,037 6,593 6,936 7,460 7,269 6,916 6,047 4,830 3,140 2,328 1,573 1,071 511 166 2008 92,201 4,903 5,101 5,223 6,318 7,371 7,271 6,759 6,899 7,377 7,428 7,011 6,162 5,160 3,391 2,353 1,679 1,061 551 183 2009 94,290 5,121 5,230 5,225 6,169 7,497 7,483 6,952 6,998 7,265 7,640 7,207 6,439 5,336 3,682 2,460 1,728 1,110 564 184 2010 96,805 5,325 5,222 5,328 5,947 7,921 7,850 7,129 7,194 7,303 7,700 7,382 6,673 5,675 3,837 2,606 1,777 1,111 609 216 2011 98,946 5,503 5,316 5,323 5,817 8,302 8,163 7,291 7,236 7,370 7,742 7,459 6,838 5,836 4,194 2,778 1,804 1,119 622 233 2012 100,666 5,512 5,407 5,315 5,693 8,234 8,498 7,702 7,222 7,467 7,736 7,536 6,953 6,026 4,577 2,859 1,928 1,142 621 238 2013 101,905 5,479 5,534 5,292 5,622 7,904 8,683 8,037 7,393 7,443 7,644 7,661 7,094 6,094 4,898 3,075 2,015 1,192 611 234 2014 102,421 5,394 5,736 5,302 5,576 7,621 8,527 8,251 7,471 7,387 7,451 7,788 7,066 6,286 5,093 3,283 2,100 1,232 626 231 2015 102,860 5,328 5,924 5,247 5,599 7,215 8,475 8,374 7,550 7,355 7,284 7,817 7,106 6,430 5,332 3,458 2,209 1,264 643 250 2016 103,113 5,321 6,027 5,269 5,590 6,889 8,319 8,403 7,615 7,318 7,160 7,766 7,185 6,505 5,494 3,723 2,329 1,286 654 260 2017 103,231 5,352 6,047 5,360 5,541 6,698 8,110 8,265 7,729 7,248 7,110 7,610 7,294 6,523 5,658 3,973 2,428 1,332 681 272 2018 103,339 5,384 6,010 5,498 5,488 6,527 7,797 8,076 7,882 7,301 7,033 7,406 7,429 6,519 5,827 4,203 2,581 1,382 725 271 2019 103,747 5,421 5,928 5,701 5,499 6,443 7,495 7,958 8,085 7,373 7,004 7,190 7,549 6,488 6,030 4,371 2,764 1,430 748 270 2020 104,560 5,424 5,869 5,902 5,469 6,565 7,181 7,963 8,259 7,509 7,002 7,036 7,563 6,532 6,180 4,586 2,922 1,521 790 287 2021 105,569 5,426 5,889 6,061 5,527 6,681 6,993 7,957 8,376 7,656 7,026 6,971 7,527 6,596 6,284 4,740 3,142 1,597 817 303 2022 106,106 5,341 5,961 6,091 5,632 6,710 6,896 7,849 8,307 7,829 7,009 6,943 7,366 6,722 6,323 4,900 3,375 1,677 853 322 2023 106,339 5,248 6,008 6,064 5,777 6,693 6,826 7,607 8,178 7,989 7,099 6,882 7,170 6,845 6,315 5,056 3,581 1,782 886 333 2024 106,340 5,141 6,012 5,982 5,952 6,657 6,752 7,309 8,039 8,151 7,160 6,828 6,963 6,952 6,299 5,232 3,729 1,906 931 345 2025 106,574 5,067 5,998 5,898 6,142 6,589 6,834 6,926 8,013 8,275 7,262 6,788 6,802 6,967 6,349 5,368 3,915 2,019 1,001 361 2026 107,016 5,014 5,950 5,904 6,278 6,603 6,929 6,686 7,965 8,363 7,370 6,776 6,708 6,923 6,417 5,462 4,054 2,175 1,062 377 2027 107,530 4,974 5,897 5,976 6,305 6,729 6,997 6,600 7,869 8,325 7,535 6,757 6,688 6,782 6,537 5,515 4,199 2,330 1,117 398 2028 108,110 4,944 5,837 6,053 6,290 6,924 7,037 6,577 7,691 8,255 7,731 6,853 6,655 6,616 6,685 5,509 4,348 2,483 1,204 418 2029 108,677 4,928 5,777 6,086 6,205 7,163 7,108 6,605 7,460 8,197 7,948 6,942 6,642 6,434 6,803 5,512 4,516 2,596 1,307 448 2030 109,350 4,952 5,742 6,113 6,149 7,423 7,079 6,772 7,151 8,211 8,123 7,071 6,636 6,296 6,821 5,567 4,654 2,724 1,394 472 2031 110,051 4,974 5,699 6,079 6,160 7,575 7,161 6,913 6,943 8,192 8,236 7,181 6,670 6,225 6,797 5,652 4,740 2,832 1,523 499 2032 110,713 5,021 5,676 6,021 6,234 7,587 7,344 6,999 6,893 8,146 8,203 7,348 6,670 6,225 6,672 5,762 4,791 2,935 1,654 532 2033 111,364 5,076 5,645 5,977 6,300 7,538 7,587 7,092 6,904 7,981 8,161 7,539 6,765 6,200 6,515 5,906 4,792 3,049 1,770 567 2034 111,973 5,143 5,658 5,930 6,346 7,404 7,859 7,198 6,946 7,753 8,103 7,729 6,877 6,197 6,341 6,025 4,810 3,173 1,869 612 2035 112,552 5,211 5,670 5,870 6,362 7,291 8,152 7,155 7,122 7,456 8,112 7,880 6,998 6,202 6,242 6,053 4,861 3,279 1,984 652 2036 113,153 5,285 5,710 5,840 6,304 7,262 8,321 7,225 7,264 7,272 8,074 7,977 7,101 6,229 6,166 6,041 4,944 3,343 2,068 727
POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Females 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 83,016 5,989 6,466 6,946 7,579 8,153 7,553 7,201 6,355 4,938 3,576 3,230 3,145 2,901 2,951 2,520 1,717 996 612 188 1987 83,921 5,911 6,368 6,679 7,341 8,416 7,678 7,422 6,528 5,426 3,713 3,312 3,114 2,889 2,951 2,537 1,786 1,023 618 209 1988 85,143 5,874 6,260 6,545 7,222 8,531 7,871 7,576 6,775 5,733 4,087 3,343 3,166 2,911 2,916 2,488 1,903 1,092 629 221 1989 86,667 5,820 6,264 6,437 7,138 8,634 8,197 7,764 7,003 6,101 4,388 3,429 3,151 2,963 2,864 2,438 2,036 1,152 657 231 1990 88,210 5,808 6,144 6,359 7,130 8,636 8,557 7,901 7,292 6,436 4,744 3,546 3,158 3,031 2,709 2,501 2,115 1,249 659 235 1991 89,514 5,834 6,000 6,311 6,957 8,754 8,802 8,088 7,452 6,629 5,200 3,683 3,176 3,017 2,722 2,507 2,119 1,358 639 266 1992 90,130 5,832 5,993 6,293 6,704 8,768 8,641 8,027 7,630 6,767 5,569 3,849 3,203 3,052 2,727 2,564 2,147 1,411 684 269 1993 91,053 5,714 5,935 6,274 6,636 8,761 8,556 8,124 7,764 6,988 5,770 4,207 3,241 3,086 2,771 2,549 2,173 1,496 727 281 1994 90,994 5,532 5,832 6,220 6,569 8,438 8,280 8,108 7,787 7,098 6,100 4,457 3,335 3,084 2,780 2,568 2,159 1,603 771 273 1995 90,940 5,268 5,820 6,177 6,542 8,082 7,942 8,150 7,807 7,295 6,370 4,720 3,429 3,062 2,842 2,488 2,174 1,675 820 277 1996 90,760 4,990 5,764 6,106 6,592 7,688 7,609 8,174 7,859 7,355 6,487 5,073 3,569 3,050 2,839 2,531 2,225 1,681 899 269 1997 90,456 4,861 5,619 6,018 6,378 7,509 7,359 8,038 7,830 7,431 6,621 5,463 3,741 3,067 2,849 2,515 2,289 1,663 919 286 1998 90,162 4,731 5,502 5,901 6,205 7,373 7,171 7,802 7,820 7,493 6,775 5,669 4,024 3,105 2,861 2,527 2,271 1,662 968 302 1999 90,407 4,648 5,360 5,805 6,244 7,430 7,004 7,510 7,849 7,505 6,956 5,962 4,231 3,219 2,884 2,548 2,257 1,660 1,026 309 2000 90,799 4,612 5,131 5,719 6,233 7,526 6,889 7,241 7,955 7,556 7,136 6,190 4,493 3,319 2,866 2,649 2,184 1,694 1,087 319 2001 91,063 4,461 4,950 5,680 6,261 7,604 6,683 7,043 7,938 7,671 7,266 6,279 4,859 3,441 2,871 2,660 2,212 1,750 1,099 335 2002 91,688 4,349 4,886 5,649 6,299 7,469 6,734 6,969 7,908 7,775 7,336 6,489 5,234 3,606 2,875 2,667 2,170 1,791 1,106 376 2003 92,386 4,389 4,782 5,566 6,350 7,197 6,961 6,933 7,793 7,853 7,459 6,651 5,461 3,883 2,934 2,677 2,166 1,789 1,106 436 2004 93,440 4,421 4,761 5,499 6,293 7,233 7,109 6,919 7,615 8,027 7,519 6,817 5,806 4,089 3,049 2,658 2,228 1,771 1,124 502 2005 93,813 4,378 4,757 5,239 6,173 7,235 7,095 6,846 7,459 8,163 7,578 7,060 5,997 4,353 3,122 2,607 2,310 1,705 1,183 553 2006 94,461 4,444 4,643 5,140 6,038 7,363 7,014 6,866 7,296 8,135 7,772 7,167 6,156 4,684 3,285 2,606 2,317 1,721 1,217 597 2007 95,713 4,505 4,658 5,023 6,167 7,299 7,098 6,929 7,230 8,115 7,876 7,259 6,338 5,056 3,482 2,697 2,342 1,729 1,275 635 2008 97,570 4,718 4,763 5,005 6,246 7,381 7,212 7,118 7,222 8,014 7,975 7,385 6,548 5,328 3,788 2,810 2,389 1,771 1,250 647 2009 99,577 5,010 4,808 5,037 6,210 7,504 7,490 7,228 7,275 7,831 8,175 7,415 6,755 5,687 3,988 2,957 2,417 1,839 1,235 716 2010 101,631 5,242 4,834 5,090 5,982 7,879 7,719 7,370 7,396 7,687 8,320 7,503 6,987 5,932 4,261 3,042 2,442 1,938 1,241 766 2011 103,587 5,398 4,976 5,022 5,906 8,142 8,026 7,562 7,441 7,683 8,246 7,715 7,086 6,079 4,599 3,165 2,471 1,982 1,268 820 2012 105,225 5,368 5,133 4,944 5,668 8,253 8,359 7,798 7,562 7,719 8,233 7,858 7,176 6,255 4,997 3,316 2,503 1,995 1,232 856 2013 106,467 5,227 5,323 5,005 5,454 8,083 8,603 7,964 7,769 7,717 8,133 7,998 7,266 6,456 5,226 3,591 2,543 1,998 1,255 856 2014 107,272 5,168 5,535 5,035 5,378 7,734 8,592 8,232 7,847 7,644 7,908 8,130 7,271 6,668 5,492 3,808 2,648 2,007 1,293 882 2015 107,827 5,103 5,742 5,016 5,308 7,294 8,575 8,399 7,982 7,593 7,663 8,243 7,327 6,822 5,748 4,039 2,728 2,021 1,330 894 2016 108,454 5,106 5,914 5,067 5,218 6,953 8,395 8,600 8,063 7,591 7,494 8,190 7,463 6,904 5,915 4,410 2,851 2,045 1,353 922 2017 108,883 5,153 5,934 5,167 5,161 6,702 8,149 8,654 8,178 7,610 7,360 8,071 7,551 7,001 6,079 4,722 2,983 2,102 1,348 958 2018 109,245 5,168 5,920 5,282 5,174 6,510 7,802 8,661 8,305 7,663 7,233 7,916 7,650 7,065 6,263 4,968 3,170 2,157 1,369 969 2019 109,911 5,203 5,859 5,477 5,187 6,439 7,455 8,621 8,542 7,765 7,143 7,686 7,777 7,073 6,475 5,227 3,362 2,250 1,380 990 2020 110,838 5,210 5,803 5,703 5,212 6,453 7,107 8,666 8,752 7,928 7,122 7,449 7,882 7,118 6,632 5,478 3,580 2,325 1,393 1,025 2021 112,018 5,195 5,836 5,887 5,307 6,477 6,917 8,598 9,026 8,071 7,173 7,295 7,830 7,247 6,726 5,639 3,892 2,426 1,424 1,052 2022 112,739 5,130 5,884 5,914 5,407 6,518 6,750 8,407 9,129 8,213 7,232 7,181 7,731 7,327 6,833 5,805 4,187 2,557 1,466 1,068 2023 113,133 5,057 5,935 5,901 5,522 6,550 6,636 8,082 9,162 8,338 7,314 7,062 7,560 7,420 6,897 5,979 4,409 2,710 1,507 1,092 2024 113,361 4,935 5,934 5,827 5,688 6,553 6,520 7,732 9,111 8,535 7,392 6,977 7,333 7,532 6,904 6,181 4,630 2,885 1,583 1,109 2025 113,838 4,879 5,905 5,767 5,894 6,513 6,533 7,326 9,140 8,717 7,539 6,929 7,103 7,626 6,950 6,329 4,851 3,055 1,648 1,134 2026 114,427 4,818 5,856 5,772 6,077 6,598 6,485 7,067 9,000 8,948 7,640 6,948 6,930 7,567 7,080 6,425 4,999 3,346 1,716 1,155 2027 115,077 4,762 5,792 5,841 6,114 6,739 6,541 6,908 8,833 9,070 7,777 6,985 6,814 7,468 7,163 6,527 5,150 3,587 1,812 1,194 2028 115,838 4,756 5,727 5,886 6,106 6,914 6,683 6,852 8,559 9,160 7,917 7,092 6,711 7,340 7,250 6,603 5,295 3,795 1,950 1,242 2029 116,647 4,749 5,675 5,938 6,059 7,188 6,766 6,853 8,269 9,181 8,164 7,210 6,651 7,115 7,371 6,608 5,503 3,986 2,073 1,288 2030 117,421 4,759 5,622 5,954 6,002 7,497 6,796 6,900 7,923 9,225 8,356 7,340 6,617 6,905 7,492 6,663 5,643 4,171 2,201 1,355 2031 118,281 4,782 5,596 5,910 6,022 7,728 6,961 6,901 7,697 9,126 8,604 7,471 6,632 6,753 7,425 6,800 5,735 4,311 2,431 1,396 2032 119,003 4,818 5,555 5,877 6,082 7,770 7,134 6,995 7,576 8,975 8,720 7,609 6,682 6,645 7,336 6,872 5,826 4,450 2,607 1,474 2033 119,807 4,864 5,554 5,818 6,145 7,755 7,340 7,150 7,529 8,729 8,834 7,737 6,788 6,551 7,196 6,981 5,909 4,594 2,761 1,572 2034 120,511 4,936 5,539 5,763 6,179 7,667 7,664 7,249 7,504 8,440 8,849 7,980 6,886 6,492 7,006 7,086 5,919 4,767 2,911 1,674 2035 121,207 5,001 5,557 5,723 6,191 7,599 7,976 7,306 7,557 8,089 8,873 8,164 7,023 6,470 6,794 7,191 5,962 4,889 3,053 1,789 2036 121,924 5,090 5,588 5,683 6,159 7,589 8,210 7,429 7,569 7,870 8,779 8,378 7,118 6,501 6,650 7,141 6,090 4,964 3,167 1,949