Demographic Trends Driving the Hispanic Consumer Market James W. Gillula and Tabitha Bailey*

Transcription

1 Demographic Trends Driving the Hispanic Consumer Market James W. Gillula and Tabitha Bailey* The rapid growth of the U.S. Hispanic population has captured the attention of most major retailers and consumer products manufacturers. Companies are devoting increasing resources to advertising, product design and packaging oriented toward Hispanic consumers. This article presents an overview of estimates and projections of the long-term growth of the Hispanic consumer market produced by Global Insight, Inc., an economic analysis and forecasting company. We focus on some of the demographic characteristics of the Hispanic population that are relevant for developing strategies to reach this market, including language used in the home. Population Projections Table 5-1 presents selected indicators from Global Insight s forecasts of Hispanic population growth and household formation. These projections are produced via a cohort survival model, which applies specific assumptions about Hispanic birth rates, survival rates and net international migration by age to base year population estimates that are benchmarked to the 2000 Census of Population and more current Census Bureau population estimates. Assumptions about trends in age-specific Hispanic birth rates and survival rates over the period are largely drawn from the Census Bureau s interim population projections. However, assumptions about net international migration of the Hispanic population over this period are Global Insight s projections. We assume somewhat higher immigration levels roughly midway between the Census Bureau s middle series and high series projections. As shown in Chart 5-1, we estimate that the Hispanic population reached 14.5% of the U.S. total in 2005, and this proportion will rise steadily to exceed 20% by Net immigration of the Hispanic population remained very strong over the first half of this decade, contributing nearly half to the net increase in the Hispanic population in the U.S. Despite a continuing high rate of immigration, we expect the proportional contribution of immigration to Hispanic Share of U.S. Population 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% 14.5% 12.6% Table 5-1 Hispanic Demographic Forecast: United States Chart 5-1 By 2025, 1 in 5 Americans Will Be of Hispanic Origin 16.1% 17.5% 18.9% 20.4% Hispanic Population (mil.) Average Annual Growth (%) Population by Age (%) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0 to to to to to & older Households (mil.) Average Annual Growth (%) Hispanic Consumer Spending ($bil.) , , , ,059.8 Average Annual Growth (%) Demographic indicators are mid-year estimates. Spending figures are in nominal dollars. Source: Global Insight, Inc. * Managing Director and Senior Consultant, respectively, Advisory Services Division, Global Insight, Inc. RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,

2 Hispanic population growth to slow down over the next 20 years. As a result, the foreign-born share of the Hispanic population will gradually fall from about 45% currently to 37% in Language Use and Educational Attainment Our demographic model of the Hispanic population draws on a database we constructed from the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) of the 2000 Census a file with complete demographic information on 1.6 million Hispanic persons. Among the demographic data collected in the Census is information on the use of languages other than English in the home. Persons (age 5 and older) who report that they speak a language other than English in the home are also asked about their ability to speak English. We incorporated these measures of language use into our Hispanic demographic model. For those interested in marketing to the Hispanic population, the responses to these questions provide some insights into how best to reach this important consumer segment. % Speaking Spanish In the Home: 2005 Share of Hispanic Population Age 25+ With HS Education: 2005 Chart 5-2 Except for Children and Young Adults, over 80% of the Hispanic Population Speak Spanish in the Home 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Age Group Chart 5-3 Foreign-Born Latinos Have Lower Educational Attainment and Do Not Improve It Significantly Long-Time Immigrants New Immigrants 48% 45% 78% 0% 20% 40% 80% 100% The most prominent finding from these language use questions is that a substantial percentage of the Hispanic population over three quarters of the population age five and older speak Spanish in the home. Chart 5-2 shows our current estimates of the use of Spanish in the home per five-year age group. For all age groups over age 25, the proportion speaking Spanish in the home is between 80% and 85%. These age-specific shares have changed little since Because of the high share of immigration in Hispanic population growth and some significant differences between the native-born and foreign-born population it is important to capture these differences in modeling Hispanic consumer market behavior. Moreover, within the foreign-born population, there are systematic differences for some demographic characteristics as a function of length of time in the U.S. In our forecasting model again drawing on PUMS data we segment our population estimates and projections to track population growth separately for three groups of the Hispanic population: Those born in the U.S., New immigrants, which we define as immigrants who arrived within the previous five years, and Long-time immigrants, which we define as immigrants who arrived more than five years ago. One demographic characteristic for which there is a significant difference between the U.S.-born and foreignborn Hispanic population is educational attainment. Chart 5-3 presents our estimates for 2005 of the share of the Hispanic population 25 and older with a high school education in each of the three demographic groups listed above. While 78% of all U.S.-born Latinos have a high school education, less than half of the foreign-born do. Moreover, the small difference between new immigrants and long-time immigrants evident here suggests that only a small share of Hispanic immigrants improve their educational attainment over time. Chart 5-4 illustrates a few points about the use of Spanish in the home: Over 90% of new and long-time Hispanic immigrants use Spanish in the home. Most Hispanic immigrants continue to speak Spanish in the home throughout their lifetimes. Even among Latinos born in the U.S., the use of Spanish in the home is very high about or more among the population through middle age and higher among older generations. Even though, as noted above, we expect the foreignborn share of the Hispanic population to decline over the RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,

3 next 20 years, the process will be slow. And, given the sharp differences between the U.S.- born and foreign-born evident in Chart 5-4, the use of Spanish in the home will remain high. We expect the share of the population speaking Spanish in the home to decline only marginally from 78% in 2005 to 74% in 2025 (Chart 5-5). Income and Spending Based on data from the 2000 Census and the Current Population Survey, we estimate that the average household income of the Hispanic population in 2005 was 78% of the U.S. average. Because new immigrants, on average, have lower paying jobs, a strong rate of immigration offsets income gains made among the U.S.-born population and long-time immigrants holding down improvements in the overall average. Our long-term projections of Hispanic household income growth take into account Hispanic labor force participation, educational attainment and the percentage of foreign born, as well as shifts in the age structure of the Hispanic population. Hispanic income growth is projected within the context of Global Insight s long-term forecast for the U.S. economy. As education levels rise among the Hispanic population and new immigrants account for a declining share of population growth, we expect a gradual narrowing of the income gap between Hispanic and non-hispanic households. The closing of the gap will be slow over the next five years, but will accelerate thereafter, such that average Hispanic household income is expected to be nearly 85% of the U.S. average in 2025 (Chart 5-6). Boosted by steady income gains and high population growth, Hispanics consumer spending will continue to significantly outpace that of the non-hispanic population (Chart 5-7). We estimate that personal consumption expenditures of the Hispanic population in 2005 totaled $715.5 billion 8.8% of the U.S. total. With an average annual growth rate of spending (in nominal dollars) over the next 20 years of 7.6% compared to a 4.9% average for the non- Hispanic population we project that Hispanic consumer spending will grow to $3.1 trillion, or 13.7% of the U.S. total in % Speaking Spanish in the Home By Length of Time in U.S.: % 80% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Hispanic Average HH Income As A Percentage of the U.S. Average Chart % of Immigrants Continue to Speak Spanish in the Home Throughout Their Lifetime 100% 90% 80% 70% 50% 40% Age Group New Immigrants Long-Time Immigrants Chart 5-5 The Foreign-Born Share of the Population Will Decline Slowly, But Use of Spanish Will Remain Very High Foreign-Born Population Speak Spanish at Home Chart 5-6 The Hispanic-U.S. Income Gap Will Slowly Narrow % 80 % 75 % 70 % 65 % 60 % RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,

4 Chart 5-7 Growth of Hispanic Consumer Spending Continues to Outpace Spending Growth of the Non-Hispanic Population Ave. Annual Growth of Personal Consumption Expenditures 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Hispanic Non-Hispanic Regional Trends Given the historical concentration of the Hispanic population in the Southwest, Florida and New York, many retailers could make a good start toward targeting the Hispanic consumer market by focusing on these areas of the country. But in recent years the Hispanic population has been growing rapidly in other regions of the country, and these areas represent new growth opportunities for selling to the Hispanic population. We model and forecast Hispanic population, income and spending growth in the top 20 Hispanic states and 61 Designated Marketing Areas (DMAs) using the same approach we use for the U.S., i.e., linking spending projections to demographic trends in birth rates, survival rates, net immigration, labor force participation and educational attainment. Our Hispanic income and spending projections are made within the context of overall macroeconomic forecasts of states and metropolitan areas produced by Global Insight s Regional Information Service. Geographical differences in some of the demographic characteristics of the Hispanic population that we analyzed above for the U.S. are substantial. To illustrate, Chart 5-8 shows the distribution of the three Hispanic demographic Chart 5-8 There Are Sharp Differences in U.S. and Foreign-Born Hispanic Population Shares Among DMAs Albuquerque-Santa Fe Atlanta 35% 32% 86% 4% Long-Time Immigrants (>5yrs) New Immigrants (<=5yrs) 33% Long-Time Immigrants (>5yrs) New Immigrants (<=5yrs) RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,

5 groups in two DMAs that are near the opposite end when ranking DMAs based on share of the foreign-born population. The Albuquerque-Santa Fe DMA has an established Hispanic population with 86% born in the U.S. in 2005, while in the Atlanta DMA a new growth area for the Hispanic population only one-third are U.S.- born, and a little over a third are new immigrants. Such differences in the foreign-born share of the population by DMA translate into big differences in the use of Spanish in the home. Table 5-2 illustrates the wide variation among DMAs in the share of the Hispanic population that speaks Spanish in the home. The DMAs shown are the top 10 and lowest 10 by this measure for the 61 DMAs identified in our modeling system. The use of Spanish in the home is very high in many metropolitan areas across Texas and Florida, and much lower in many metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northwest with older established Hispanic populations. Areas with historically the greatest concentration of Hispanic population California, Texas, Florida and New York still accounted for nearly two-thirds of Hispanic population and consumer spending in But the Hispanic population including new immigrants is going where there are job opportunities. The result is high rates of growth of the Hispanic population in many other states, especially across the South. Chart 5-9 presents the top 10 states with the highest projected average annual growth of Hispanic consumer spending over the next five years. Georgia and North Carolina top the list, with double-digit growth rates of consumer spending expected through The Hispanic population in Georgia grew by over 200,000 in the last five years to reach 624,000, New States Are Joining the List of Leading Hispanic Growth Markets Georgia North Carolina Nevada Arizona Oregon Massachusetts Washington Virginia Michigan Maryland 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% Ave. Annual Growth of Hispanic Consumer Spending in Nominal Dollars: Table 5-2 Share of the Hispanic Population that Speaks Spanish in the Home by DMA: 2005 Highest 10 DMAs Laredo 94.0% Miami-Ft Lauderdale 92.4% Harlingen-Wsl-Brn-McA 91.0% El Paso 87.2% Yuma 86.2% Ft Myers-Naples 86.1% New York City 84.8% W Palm Beach-Ft Pierce 84.8% Atlanta 84.7% Odessa-Midland 84.3% Lowest 10 DMAs Minneapolis-St Paul 65.6% Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto 64.5% Kansas City 63.8% Cleveland 63.1% Albuquerque-Santa Fe 62.2% Denver 61.9% Seattle-Tacoma 60.2% Detroit 57.8% Colorado Springs-Pueblo 43.2% Honolulu 19.7% Source: Global Insight, Inc. and is expected to increase by 218,000 over the next five years. North Carolina has a Hispanic population of similar size (537,000 in 2005) and is projected to grow by 185,000 over the next five years. Chart 5-9 Chart 5-10 Increase in Hispanic Population As Percent of U.S. Population Growth The Hispanic Population Will Continue to Account for About Half of the Increase in the U.S. Population 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,

6 Conclusion Perhaps the best way to see the significance of the Hispanic consumer market in planning for future growth is to look at how much of the net increase in the U.S. population the Hispanic population will account for in the future. Chart 5-10 shows these percentages for five-year periods through The Hispanic share of the net increase in the U.S. population was over half during the last five years (an increase of 7.3 million in the Hispanic population out of an overall population increase of 14.2 million). As the pace of immigration slows, we expect this proportion to fall slightly, to just under one-half during the next 10 years. But it will rise again as higher Hispanic birth rates keep Hispanic population growth well above the U.S. average. The dynamics of high (though slowing) rates of immigration mean that the use of Spanish in the home by the Hispanic population will remain at a very high level nearly three-fourths 20 years from now. Product packaging and display and advertising budgets for consumer products are likely to increasingly reflect this reality. James W. Gillula is Managing Director in the Advisory Services Division of Global Insight, Inc., an economic analysis and forecasting company. He has been involved in consumer market analysis and demographic research for Global Insight (and, previously, Data Resources, Inc.) clients for over 20 years. He can be reached at [email protected]. Tabitha Bailey is a Senior Consultant in the Advisory Services Division of Global Insight, Inc. She manages Global Insight s work on the Hispanic consumer market, including the Hispanic Market Monitor database, on which this article is based. She can be reached at [email protected]. RESEARCH REVIEW, VOL. 13, NO. 1,