Table of Contents. Florida Population Atlas 1

Transcription

1 Florida Population Atlas 1 Table of Contents About the Florida Population Atlas... 2 Explanation of Florida Population Characteristics and Trends..2-5 Figures & Maps Florida Population Characteristics and Trends Figure 1: *new* Florida s Racial Distribution, Figure 2: *new* Florida s Ethnic Distribution, Figure 3: *new* Percent of Population by Race, US and Florida, 2010 (Doughnut) Figure 4: *new* Percent of Population by Ethnicity, US and Florida, 2010 (Doughnut) Figure 5: Percent of Population by Age Group, US and Florida, Figure 6: Percent of Population by Age Group, Selected Races, and Ethnicity, Florida, Figure 7: Percent of Population by Age Group and Sex, Florida, Figure 8: *new* Percent of Population by Age Group and Sex, US 2009 and Florida Figure 9: *new* Percent of Population by Age Group, Sex, Selected Races, and Ethnicity, Florida Historical Population Trends Figure 10: *new* Annual Percent Population Change, Florida, Figure 11 :*new* Percent Population Change by County Maps, , , , Figure 12: *new* Percent Population Change by County Map, Figure 13: Florida Population by County, 1970 & 2010 (table) Figure 14: Florida Population Estimates by Race, Figure 15: Florida Population Estimates by County, Large Counties, 1970 and 2010, Populations more than 500,000 People Figure 16: Florida Population Estimates by County, Medium Counties, 1970 and 2010, Populations between 100,000 and 500,000 People Figure 17: Florida Population Estimates by County, Small Counties, 1970 and 2010, Populations less than 100,000 People Figure 18: Years of Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Sex, US Total and Florida, Figure 19: *new* 3-Year Life Expectancy by County Maps, Florida, , , , (4-panel view) Figure 20: Percent of Total Florida Population by Age Group, 1970 & Figure 21: *new* Percent of Population by Age Group and Sex, Florida, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 (4-panel view Figure 22: Components of Population Change by County, Natural Increase and Net Migration, Large Counties, , Population more than 500,000 People Figure 23: Components of Population Change by County, Natural Increase and Net Migration, Medium Counties, , Population between 100,000 and 500,000 People Figure 24: Components of Population Change by County, Natural Increase and Net Migration, Small Counties, , Population less than 100,000 People Figure 25: *new* Population Change by Primary Reason Maps, , , , (4-panel view) Figure 26: Population Change by Primary Reason Map, Definition of Terms in the Population Atlas

2 2 Florida Population Atlas Florida Population Atlas About the Population Atlas This section of the Florida Population Atlas provides an analysis of the population trends in Florida over the past 40 years. Maps, graphs, and charts are used to depict Florida s population growth from 1970 to 2010 by age, race, ethnicity, and sex. All files are provided in.pdf format for convenient printing. Categorizations of demographic characteristics have changed over time to reflect the unique racial and ethnic makeup of Florida s populations. Before 1980, only two racial categories were used in public documents: white and nonwhite. New racial categories include white, black and other. The ethnicity categories of Hispanic and non- Hispanic, used in birth and death data, were introduced in This Atlas uses the newest racial and ethnic categories. Because this Atlas was created in early 2012, the 2010 US Census files for some demographic characteristics were not available for comparison. When available, 2010 US counts were used; others use 2009 US population counts. These are noted on the maps, graphs, and charts. Population data is based upon the Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research 2010 release. Third quarter numbers are used in this Atlas to approximate the mid-year population in Florida Population Characteristics and Trends Florida in 2010 was 80.6% white, 16.5% black, and 2.9% other (Figure 1). Other, in this Atlas, encompasses all other races besides white and black. Florida s ethnic makeup is 22.1% Hispanic and 77.9% non-hispanic (Figure 2). In this Atlas, Hispanic follows the same definition as the US Census Bureau, which counts persons of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race 1. Florida has a small portion of other population compared to the United States and a larger portion of Hispanics (Figure 3 & 4). Florida s age distribution differs from that of other states and the United States overall. The largest 5-year age cohort for both sexes is year olds (Figure 7), and Florida has a relatively older population compared to the United States (Figure 8). A common population trend also seen in Florida is that women are the dominant group in Florida after age 50, and men are dominant among the younger population. The age structures in Florida vary by race and ethnicity. The white population has a larger elderly cohort (65+) and a much smaller young population than any other group. Black males and females have the largest population of young people; their largest cohort is the Census definition available here:

3 Florida Population Atlas 3 age group. Hispanic males and females, regardless of race, have the largest group of people between the ages (Figure 9). Historical Population Trends Year Population Percent Change During the Previous Ten Years Percent Change Due to Natural Increase Percent Change Due to Net Migration ,851, % 26.2% 73.8% ,840, % 7.8% 92.2% ,029, % 13.0% 87.0% ,074, % 15.1% 85.0% ,788, % 16.5% 83.5% Source: FloridaCHARTS; Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research; Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics Florida is a large and diverse state with over 18.7 million residents. The state experienced tremendous population growth until the late 2000s, with the population increasing by 195.7% from 1970 to The percentage of population growth has decreased continuously since the 1970s, with a small increase of 16.9% from 2000 to The 1990s was the third consecutive decade in which Florida s population grew by approximately 3 million residents. The period between 2000 and 2010 was unique for the United States because of the economic recession. Florida experienced a steep decline in the percent change of population growth after (Figure 10). Miami-Dade County has continuously had the largest population since Liberty County is the least populous of all counties in Florida, with a population of just 8,221 in 2010 (Figure 13). Thirty-three of the 67 counties in Florida had fewer than 100,000 people in The racial makeup of Florida has had little change over the last 40 years. In 1970, the white population represented 84.3% of the population in Florida, compared to 80.6% in The black population in 1970 represented 15.3% of the population, whereas in 2010 that percentage increased just slightly to 16.5%. The other population was hardly noted in 1970, with less than 1% represented (0.4%). In 2010, their presence is recorded at 2.9%, a large jump from 1970 (Figure 14). Life expectancy is a measure often used to gauge the overall health of a population. As a summary measure of mortality, life expectancy represents the average number of years of life at birth that could be expected if current death rates were to remain constant. Shifts in life expectancy are often used to describe trends in mortality. Life expectancy at birth is strongly influenced by infant and child mortality. Improvements in nutrition, housing, hygiene, medical care, and prevention and control of infectious diseases contribute to decreases in death rates throughout the lifespan and the consequent increases in average life expectancy. Life expectancy in Florida surpassed that of the US in 2000 and continues to do so with a life expectancy in 2007 of 79.2 years of age. For thirty years before 2000, US and Florida life expectancy followed a similar positive trend. Florida white women have had a constant pattern of higher life expectancy than any other group in Florida, with a 2007 expectancy of 82.8 years. No other racial group has a life expectancy greater than 80 years. Black women and women of other races have recently approached the 80-year life expectancy threshold with a 2007 life expectancy of 78.9 years. White men have gained about 10 years in life expectancy since 1970,

4 4 Florida Population Atlas with a 2007 life expectancy of 76.8 years. Black men have had the largest improvement, with a 14-year life expectancy gain from 58.4 years in 1970 to 72.5 years in 2007 (Figure 18). With life expectancy growing, elderly cohorts will also grow. Florida s age distribution has changed dramatically in the last few decades. In 1970, the largest age populations were young, with year-olds being the large age group and 5-9-year-olds with the next largest. This cohort of 5-9-year-olds in 1970 follows through the years as being the largest cohort in Florida (15-24 in 1980, in 1990, in 2000, in 2010). In 1990, the youngest age group, 0-5 year olds, was the largest it had been since Overall, in 1970, those aged 0-19 years made up 34.1% of the total Florida population; in 2010, that age group represents 24.5% of Floridians. The 65+ elderly age group represented 14.7% of the population in 1970, and now represents 17.7% in Florida is the state with the largest proportion of elderly residents, compared to a US percentage of 13.8% in 2009 (Figure 21). Net Migration is a key component of population growth in Florida. It is defined as either in-migration or out-migration. In this Atlas, in-migrants are defined as anyone moving into a county; out-migrants are anyone moving out of a county. Most of Florida s counties rely heavily on migration for population change. Data on births and deaths are considered to be more reliable (and more likely to be available) than data on in-migration and out-migration; thus, one can only estimate the effects of the two migration processes on the growth of a population. In this Atlas, net migration is estimated using population estimates for two different years and births and deaths data for the period between those two years, as detailed in the following formula: Population Change - Natural Increase = Net Migration (2010 population 1970 population) (Births Deaths) (In-migrants Out-migrants) While this formula provides an estimate of net migration in Florida, it does mask trends in inmigration and out-migration. Between 1970 and 2006, migration in Florida accounted for over 80% of population growth. Starting in 2007, net migration for Florida as a whole fell sharply. Most counties in Florida have positive net migration, or more in-migrants than out-migrants. Only one county, Gadsden, had negative net migration, or more out-migrants than in-migrants. Natural increase, or the difference between the number of births and deaths, was Gadsden s source of population growth. The formula for natural increase is: Births - Deaths = Natural Increase If this number is negative it indicates a decrease in natural increase, or fewer births than deaths. The number of births and deaths, along with fertility and mortality rates, vary from place to place. In some areas of Florida, deaths actually outnumber births, mainly due to the high numbers of elderly people settling, and subsequently dying, in those areas. The Bureau of Vital Statistics maintains reliable data on births and deaths in Florida. Five counties in Florida attribute over 50% of their population growth from 1970 to 2010 to natural increase: Escambia, Gadsden, Hardee, Monroe, and Okaloosa. Escambia County is the only county that consistently accounted for a majority of its population change due to natural increase for each 10-year interval over the 40-year period (Figure 26). Before the 2000s, most of the counties with more natural increase were in the northern part of the state. During the 2000s, an equal number of both northern and southern counties experienced natural increase (Figure 25).

5 Florida Population Atlas 5 Population increased in all counties in Florida over the past 40 years, but the primary reason for the increase--whether it is natural increase or net migration--varied from county to county. In Florida overall, natural increase has always been a small component of population growth, staying below 20% since However, it has become a more important component since migration has slowed in the last 10 years. Note on how to read a Population Pyramid: Population Pyramids are used to show the distribution of males and females across age groups. To read a pyramid, first look at the legend to see what is being measured. Next, look at the x-axis to identify the units of measurement, and then up the pyramid and across to the y-axis to identify the age group. It also should be looked at as a pyramid, as the shape indicates the type of population growth that is occurring. This can be indicative of future trends in different parts of the life course for a certain geography. The purpose of an age pyramid is to show what age groups by sex account for what portion of a population. In Florida, this is of particular importance because the age structure is unique to the rest of the United States.

6 Florida's Racial Distribution 2010 Other 2.9% Florida's Ethnic Distribution 2010 Black 16.5% Hispanic 22.1% White 80.6% Non- Hispanic 77.9% Florida Population Atlas, Figure 1 & 2 6

7 Percent of Population by Race US and Florida, 2010 US Other 15.0% FL Black 16.5% FL Other 2.9% US Black 12.6% FL White 80.6% US White 72.4% Florida Population Atlas, Figure 3 7

8 Percent of Population by Ethnicity US and Florida, 2010 US Hispanic 16.3% FL Hispanic 22.1% FL Non-Hispanic 77.9% US Non-Hispanic 83.7% Florida Population Atlas, Figure 4 8

9 Percent of Population by Age Group US and Florida, % 7% Florida US 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% < Percent of Population 9 Age Group U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2009 Florida Population Atlas, Figure 5

10 Percent of Population by Age Group, Selected Races and Ethnicity Florida, % 80% 70% Percent of Population 60% 50% 40% 30% FL Non-Hispanic White FL Hispanic 20% FL Non-Hispanic Black 10% 0% < Age Group Florida Population Atlas, Figure 6 10

11 Percent of Population by Age Group and Sex Florida Male Female Age Group <5 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Note: See page 5 on how to read population pyramids 11 Percent of Male Population Percent of Female Population Florida Population Atlas, Figure 7

12 Percent of Population by Age Group and Sex US 2009 and Florida 2010 Male Female Age Group <5 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% % FL Males % US Males % FL Females % US Females Percent of Male Population Percent of Female Population Note: See page 5 on how to read population pyramids U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2009 Florida Population Atlas, Figure 8 12

13 Percent of Population by Age Group, Sex, Selected Races, and Ethnicity Florida Male Female Age Group <5 % White Male % Hispanic Males % Black Males % White Females % Hispanic Females % Black Females 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Note: See page 5 on how to read population pyramids 13 Percent of Male Population Percent of Female Population Florida Population Atlas, Figure 9

14 Percent Change 9.0% Annual Percent Population Change Florida, % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Year Source: Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 10 14

15 Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 11 15

16 16 Florida Population Atlas, Figure 12

17 Florida Population by County, 1970 & 2010 County 1970 Population 2010 Population Population Change County 1970 Population 2010 Population Population Change Alachua 105, , % Nassau 20,807 73, % Baker 9,303 25, % Okaloosa 88, , % Bay 75, , % Okeechobee 11,506 39, % Bradford 14,734 29, % Orange 347,692 1,112, % Brevard 232, , % Osceola 25, , % Broward 628,980 1,742, % Palm Beach 353,158 1,287, % Calhoun 7,610 14, % Pasco 77, , % Charlotte 28, , % Pinellas 527, , % Citrus 19, , % Polk 228, , % Clay 32, , % Putnam 36,636 74, % Collier 38, , % St. Johns 30, , % Columbia 25,437 67, % St. Lucie 51, , % Miami-Dade 1,276,053 2,477, % Santa Rosa 38, , % DeSoto 13,177 34, % Sarasota 122, , % Dixie 5,492 16, % Seminole 84, , % Duval 529, , % Sumter 14, , % Escambia 206, , % Suwannee 15,628 43, % Flagler 4,451 96, % Taylor 13,615 23, % Franklin 7,048 12, % Union 8,246 15, % Gadsden 39,370 49, % Volusia 170, , % Gilchrist 3,582 17, % Wakulla 6,372 31, % Glades 3,712 11, % Walton 16,257 57, % Gulf 10,152 16, % Washington 11,514 25, % Hamilton 7,824 14, % Hardee 14,988 28, % Hendry 11,945 40, % Hernando 17, , % Highlands 29,883 99, % Hillsborough 493,750 1,200, % Holmes 10,794 19, % Indian River 36, , % Jackson 34,546 52, % Jefferson 8,772 14, % Lafayette 2,883 10, % Lake 69, , % Lee 107, , % Leon 104, , % Levy 12,829 40, % Liberty 3,425 8, % Madison 13,544 20, % Manatee 97, , % Marion 70, , % Martin 28, , % Monroe 52,910 78, % 17 Florida Population Atlas, Figure 13

18 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Number of Persons Florida Population Estimates by Race Total White Black Other Year Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 14

19 Miami-Dade 1, ,477.7 Broward ,742.8 Palm Beach Hillsborough Orange Pinellas Duval Lee Polk Brevard Volusia , , , ,500 2,000 1,500 1, Florida Population Estimates by County Large Counties, 1970 and 2010 Populations more than 500,000 people County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 15 Population (in Thousands)

20 Pasco Seminole Sarasota Collier Marion Manatee Escambia Lake St. Lucie Leon Osceola Alachua Okaloosa St. Johns Clay Bay Charlotte Hernando Santa Rosa Martin Citrus Indian River Sumter Florida Population Estimates by County Medium Counties, 1970 and 2010 Population between 100,000 and 500,000 people County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 16 Population (in Thousands)

21 Highlands Flagler Monroe Putnam Nassau Columbia Lafayette Walton Jackson Gadsden Suwannee Hendry Levy Okeechobee DeSoto Wakulla Bradford Hardee Baker Washington Taylor Madison Holmes Gilchrist Gulf Dixie Union Jefferson Hamilton Calhoun Franklin Glades Liberty Florida Population Estimates by County Small Counties, 1970 and 2010 Population less than 100,000 people County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 17 Population (in Thousands)

22 Years of Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Sex US Total and Florida, US Total Florida Total FL White Males FL White Females FL Black Males FL Black Females Year Data Sources: Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics US Census Bureau; NCHS; Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 18 Age (in Years)

23 County with the highest life expectancy: Glades = 82.4 years County with the lowest life expectancy: Duval = 70.4 years County with the highest life expectancy: Lafayette = 82.3 years County with the lowest life expectancy: Hendry = 71.5 years County with the highest life expectancy: Glades = 81.4 years County with the lowest life expectancy: Union 1 = 66.8 years County with the highest life expectancy: Franklin = 85.5 years County with the lowest life expectancy: Union 1 = 68.9 years *Please note that Life Expectancy is dependent on deaths and population. These calculations are based on an averaging of the three years population and deaths. For this reason, there may be some noise with smaller populations. 1 Union county has an acute hospital for inmates; these inmates are counted as Union County residents. 23 Source: Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 19

24 10.0% 9.0% Percent of Total Florida Population by Age Group 1970 and % 7.0% Percent of Population 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% < Age Group Florida Population Atlas, Figure 20 24

25 Note: See page 5 on how to read population pyramids Florida Population Atlas, Figure 21 25

26 Miami-Dade Broward ,079.5 Palm Beach Hillsborough Orange Pinellas Duval Lee Polk Brevard Volusia Components of Population Change by County Natural Increase and Net Migration Large Counties, Populations more than 500,000 people Net Migration Natural Increase County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 22 Population ( In Thousands)

27 Pasco Seminole Sarasota Collier Marion Manatee Escambia Lake St. Lucie Leon Osceola Alachua Okaloosa St. Johns Clay Bay Charlotte Hernando Santa Rosa Martin Citrus Indian River Sumter Components of Population Change by County Natural Increase and Net Migration Medium Counties, Population between 100,000 and 500,000 people Net Migration Natural Increase County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 23 Population ( In Thousands)

28 Highlands Flagler Monroe Putnam Nassau Columbia Walton Jackson Gadsden Suwannee Hendry Levy Okeechobee DeSoto Wakulla Bradford Hardee Baker Washington Taylor Madison Holmes Gilchrist Gulf Dixie Union Jefferson Hamilton Calhoun Franklin Glades Population ( In Thousands) Lafayette Liberty Components of Population Change by County Natural Increase and Net Migration Small Counties, Population less than 100,000 people Net Migration Natural Increase County Florida Population Atlas, Figure 24

29 29 Source: Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 25

30 30 Source: Florida Bureau of Vital Statistics Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research Florida Population Atlas, Figure 26

31 Florida Population Atlas 31 Definition of Terms in the Population Atlas: Race: Race in the Population Atlas refers to white, black and other. The other category encompasses all other races besides white and black. In some visuals, white and black have only been used because of data fluctuations due to a small number of events in the other category. These have been labeled as selected races. These categories encompass all ethnic categories if not stated otherwise. Ethnicity: This is the distinction between non-hispanic and Hispanic. Hispanic in Florida CHARTS follows the same definition as the U.S. Census Bureau, which counts persons of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race 1. This is a newer category in the Population Atlas, and has only been integrated into Florida vital statistics documents since Trends in this Atlas that have ethnic breakdowns, therefore, will only be from 1980 onward. Women of Childbearing Age: Women aged Large Counties: Counties with a population over 500,000 people Medium Counties: Counties with a population between 100,000 and 500,000 people Small Counties: Counties with a population under 100,000 people Natural Increase: Increase or decrease in the population based on births (fertility) and deaths (mortality). The formula is: Births - Deaths = Natural Increase If this number is negative it indicates a decrease in natural increase, or fewer births than deaths. The number of births and deaths, along with fertility and mortality rates, vary from place to place. In some areas of Florida, deaths actually outnumber births, mainly due to the high numbers of elderly people settling, and subsequently dying, in those areas. The Bureau of Vital Statistics maintains reliable data on births and deaths in Florida. Net Migration: In-migration or out-migration. In this Atlas, in-migrants are defined as anyone moving into a county; out-migrants are anyone moving out of a county. Most of Florida s counties rely heavily on migration for population change. Since data on births and deaths are many times more reliable (and are more likely to be available) than data on in-migration and out-migration, the effects of the two migration processes on the growth of a population are often estimated. In this Atlas, net migration is estimated using population estimates for two different years and births and deaths data for the period between those two years, as detailed in the following formula: Population Change - Natural Increase = Net Migration (2010 population 1970 population) (Births Deaths) (In-migrants Out-migrants) This formula provides an estimate of net migration in Florida, though it does mask trends in in-migration and out-migration. Life Expectancy: Life expectancy is a measure often used to gauge the overall health of a population. As a summary measure of mortality, life expectancy represents the average number of years of life at birth that could be expected if current death rates were to remain constant. Shifts in life expectancy are often used to describe trends in mortality. Life expectancy at birth is strongly influenced by infant and child mortality. Improvements in nutrition, housing, hygiene, medical care, and prevention and control of infectious diseases contribute to decreases in death rates throughout the lifespan and the consequent increases in average life expectancy. 1 Census definition available here:

32 Florida Population Atlas 32 Some definitions have changed over time in the Bureau of Vital Statistics. In the past, race categories were split only between White and Nonwhite in public documents. It has since been understood that the racial makeup within Florida is more unique, and must be expressed in more categories. In 1980, the switch was made from nonwhite to two categories: black and other. Ethnicity, as mentioned previously, is a newer variable used in birth and death data, introduced in This Atlas uses the newest variable definitions. Because this Atlas was created in mid-2011, the 2010 US Census files for some variables were not available for comparison. When available, 2010 US counts were used; others use 2009 US population counts. These are noted on the visuals. Population data is based upon the Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research 2010 release. Third quarter numbers are used in this Atlas to approximate the mid-year population in Note on how to read a Population Pyramid: Population Pyramids are used to show the distribution of males and females across age groups. To read a pyramid, first look at the legend to see what is being measured. Next, look at the x-axis to identify the units of measurement, and then up the pyramid and across to the y-axis to identify the age group. It also should be looked at as a pyramid, as the shape indicates the type of population growth that is occurring. This can be indicative of future trends in different parts of the life course for a certain geography. The purpose of an age pyramid is to show what age groups by sex account for what portion of a population. In Florida, this is of particular importance because the age structure is unique to the rest of the United States.