Market Commentary - 3rd Quarter 2014

Similar documents
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

nd Quarter Market Commentary

Risks and Rewards in High Yield Bonds

Economic & Market Outlook

Portfolio Series Portfolio Review Second Quarter 2010

Nicholas Sergio APRIL 2014 REVIEWING THE QUARTER ENDED MARCH 31, 2014

Quarterly Market Review. Fourth Quarter 2015

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Quarterly Asset Class Report Institutional Fixed Income

Capital Markets Review Q3 2010

Statement of Investment Policy. Alabama College Education Savings Program (ACES) Trust Fund. The CollegeCounts 529 Fund

MERCER PORTFOLIO SERVICE MONTHLY REPORT

to Wealth Management resources of one of the world s largest financial services firms. The Caribbean Group

Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW Q4 2011

Q Market ChartBook

KANSAS PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE REPORT Capital Markets Overview June 30, 2015

Investment Performance Summary

Capital preservation strategy update

Global stock markets finish off the year on a strong note

Public Equity Portfolio Overview May 29, 2013

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Global bond investing

Fixed Income Review. Second Quarter 2015

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

GE Capital. Liquidity and Funding Overview. Global issuer of long and short term debt third quarter

Quarterly Market Review

CAPITAL MARKETS REVIEW 2 nd Quarter 2015 June 30, 2015

HSBC World Selection Funds April 30, Monthly Factsheets Class A and C Shares. Investment products: ARE NOT A BANK ARE NOT DEPOSIT OR

GIPS List of Composite Descriptions. Perkins Composites Fixed Income Composites Global Macro Composites Alternative Composites...

Category Definitions

3 Years Annualized. Annualized Years. 5 Years Annualized. Annualized

Fresno County Employees Retirement System Core Plus & MSFD

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013

RISK ALLOCATION IN THE 21 ST CENTURY. February SEATTLE LOS ANGELES

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri

Investment Policy Statement

Investment Performance Review. City of Tampa General Employees' Retirement Fund

Fund commentary. John Hancock Lifestyle Portfolios Q1 2016

October PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Markets Summary and Economic Outlook December 2012

Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development. Asian Development Bank

When rates rise, do stocks fall?

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

Kusske Financial Management Inc. ADD TAGLINE OR SLOGAN EYE ON THE MARKET. September 2014 Express MARKET DATA

Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013

The Edge-Lipper Singapore Awards

Interest Rate Forecast

Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens

Total-Return Investment Pool (TRIP) Asset Allocation & Investment Policy Review and Recommendations

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

Overview. carried interest. Copyright 2014 by Cambridge Associates LLC. All rights reserved.

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices

Market Review and Outlook

Average Annualized Return as of 11/30/ YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

2015 Mid-Year Market Review

The economy. The bond market. The stock market

Finding value in a slow growth world

INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING

Investment Strategies for Pension Funds. Christopher Nichols Investment Director, Multi Asset Investing Standard Life Investments (UK)

Schwab Target Funds. Go paperless today. Simplify your financial life by viewing these documents online. Sign up at schwab.

Global Financials Update April 13, 2012

Fixed Income Strategy Quarterly April 2015

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds

Global Pension Finance Watch First Quarter Challenging start to 2016 for global pension plans

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

GE Capital. Long Term Debt Overview. Unsecured debt with maturities from 1-30 years

Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world

HIGH QUALITY PREMIER OUR PHILOSOPHY THE ATTRIBUTES OUR APPROACH

US BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND

Thailand Update. Yield Movements. Size and Composition

Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013

Fund commentary. John Hancock Retirement Living Portfolios Q1 2016

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

Stocks rebound as Emerging Market worries subside. Ukraine s turmoil causes currency to plummet. Strong performance from high yield bonds

Value in Emerging Markets: The Time Is Now

Category Definitions. Korea Morningstar Methodology Paper October Ver1.0

BALANCED fund. Fourth Quarter Results FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. December 31, 2015

Stocks Fall on Worries about Global Slowdown, Fed Uncertainty. Could this be the end of the bull market? September Fed Decision Dominates the Quarter

Finding income and managing risk in a near-zero interest-rate environment

Convertibles: An investment solution for Insurance portfolios in challenging times

VIP Benchmark Glossary

City and County of Denver Investment Portfolio Performance Report

The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong

Economic and Capital Market Review

2016 TEN-YEAR CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

NPH Fixed Income Research Update. Bob Downing, CFA. NPH Senior Investment & Due Diligence Analyst

FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC.

PERFORMANCE REVIEW AS OF DECEMBER 31, LACERA Investments

The Emerging Markets The Evolving View From a Developed Perspective

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

Transcription:

Qtr YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs "Know what you own, and know why you own it." Peter Lynch S&P 500 Index 1.13 8.34 19.73 22.99 15.70 8.11 Russell 0 Index 0.65 7.97 19.01 23.23 15.90 8.46 Russell 0 Value Index -0.19 8.07 18.89 23.93 15.26 7.84 Russell 0 Growth Index 1.49 7.89 19.15 22.45 16.50 8.94 Russell 0 Index -7.36-4.41 3.93 21.26 14.29 8.19 Russell 0 Value Index -8.58-4.74 4.13 20.61 13.02 7.25 Russell 0 Growth Index -6.13-4.05 3.79 21.91 15.51 9.03 MSCI EAFE ND -5.88-1.38 4.25 13.65 6.56 6.32 MSCI ACWI ex. US -5.27 0.00 4.77 11.79 6.03 7.06 MSCI EAFE Small Cap ND -7.82-2.74 3.00 14.49 8.91 8.02 MSCI Europe ND -7.00-1.91 5.82 15.53 6.90 6.63 MSCI Japan ND -2.30-1.64 0.62 9.16 5.41 3.81 MSCI EM ND -3.49 2.43 4.30 7.19 4.42 10.68 DJ World Real Estate -3.63 6.71 5.89 15.07 10.25 7.11 Growth of $ Broad Markets - Five Years 220 180 80 DJ US Select REIT Index -3.00 14.69 13.44 16.19 15.77 8.21 DJ-UBS US Commodity Index -10.54-4.21-5.22-4.89-1.09-0.89 ML 3-month T-Bill 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.10 1.59 BC US Gov 1-3Y Bonds 0.03 0.45 0.52 0.51 1.07 2.61 BC US Gov/Corp Bonds 0.17 4.12 4.08 2.54 4.27 4.59 BC US Aggregate Bond 0.16 4.09 3.95 2.44 4.13 4.63 BC US Gov Long Bonds 2.63 15.02 11.60 2.08 6.99 6.78 BC US Corp Long Bonds 0.07 11.30 13.41 6.85 8.69 6.89 BC US High Yield Bonds -1.87 3.49 7.20 11.09 10.57 8.33 BC TIPS -2.04 3.67 1.59 1.34 4.48 4.64 S&P 500 Index BC US Aggregate Bond MSCI EAFE ND BC US Corp Long Bonds Page 1

12.0% Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) $80,000 Cash Flows in Mutual Fund Investing ($MM) S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index 10.0% $60,000 180 $40,000 8.0% $20,000 6.0% $ 4.0% $(20,000) 80 60 2.0% $(40,000) 40 $(60,000) 20 0.0% 1/1/03 7/1/03 1/1/04 7/1/04 1/1/05 7/1/05 1/1/06 7/1/06 1/1/07 7/1/07 1/1/08 7/1/08 1/1/09 7/1/09 1/1/10 7/1/10 1/1/11 7/1/11 1/1/12 7/1/12 1/1/13 7/1/13 1/1/14 7/1/14 $(80,000) 0 Shaded periods indicate recessions $(,000) 2013 4Q 2014 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q Stocks Bonds Hybrids Money Mkts The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag. Base Year 0 =. Market Commentary The U.S. stock market rose modestly on improving economic data, strong mergers-and-acquisitions activity, and solid growth in corporate earnings. Developed international equity markets fell due to weak economic growth and significant deflationary pressures in Europe and Japan. Emerging markets declined on worries about slowing economic growth in China, the reduction of Federal Reserve stimulus, and the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine. The Fed continued to reduce its securities purchases from its $85 billion level in late 2013 to zero by the end of October. Mutual fund investors increased their holdings in bonds and decreased their holdings in stocks. For the quarter, bond funds had net inflows of $17.9 billion, while stock funds had net outflows of $8.0 billion. Total money market mutual fund assets increased by $34.4 billion to $2.591 trillion. The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%, as total employment increased by 671,000 jobs this quarter. The price of oil decreased from $105 per barrel to $91 during the quarter, an decrease of 13.3%. For the three months ending September 30, 2014, annualized seasonally adjusted CPI U was -0.1%. Falling prices for gasoline drove the decrease. Page 2

Yield to Maturity 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Source: Department of US Treasury Market Commentary - 3rd Quarter 2014 3 Years Ago Last Year Last Quarter This Quarter U.S. Treasury Yield Curve 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr US Bond Market Term to Maturity Qtr YTD 1 3 5 10 Yr Yrs Yrs Yrs ML 3-month T-Bill 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.10 1.59 Barclays US Corp 1-3 Yr 0.06 1.05 1.65 2.49 3.01 3.81 Barclays Interm US Treasury 0.02 1.58 1.11 0.87 2.59 3.70 Barclays Interm Corp -0.14 3.46 4.32 4.55 5.58 5.01 Barclays US MBS 0.18 4.20 3.77 2.07 3.48 4.69 Barclays Infl Linked US TIPS -2.04 3.68 1.60 1.35 4.49 4.64 Barclays US Aggregate Bond 0.16 4.09 3.95 2.44 4.13 4.63 Barclays US Treasury 20+ Yr 2.99 16.57 12.80 1.85 7.02 6.98 Barclays US Long Corp A or Higher 0.44 10.85 12.08 5.61 7.93 6.37 Barclays US Corporate High Yield -1.86 3.50 7.22 11.10 10.58 8.33 Barclays Emerging Mkts Agg -0.78 6.60 7.84 8.14 8.29 8.53 BofA ML Global Bond Broad Mkt Idx -2.84 1.95 1.45 1.25 2.81 4.45 Growth of $ Total Return, % US Fixed Income - Five Years 170 130 110 90 ML 3-month T-Bill Barclays Interm US Treasury Barclays US MBS Barclays US Aggregate Bond Barclays US Long Corp A or Higher Barclays Emerging Mkts Agg 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 0.01 0.06 0.02 US Fixed Income - Quarter -0.14 ML 3-month T-Bill Barclays Interm US Treasury Barclays US MBS Barclays US Aggregate Bond Barclays US Long Corp A or Higher Barclays Emerging Mkts Agg 0.18 Jul-14 - Sep-14 2.99-2.04 Barclays US Corp 1-3 Yr Barclays Interm Corp Barclays Infl Linked US TIPS Barclays US Treasury 20+ Yr Barclays US Corporate High Yield BofA ML Global Bond Broad Mkt Idx 0.16 0.44-1.86-0.78-2.84 Barclays US Corp 1-3 Yr Barclays Interm Corp Barclays Infl Linked US TIPS Barclays US Treasury 20+ Yr Barclays US Corporate High Yield BofA ML Global Bond Broad Mkt Idx The broad fixed income market rose 0.16% in the 3rdquarter, as the coupon return of 0.77% more than offset the negative impact from a 0.14% increase in interest rates. The short end of the yield curve remained unchanged as the Fed maintained its near-zero interest rate policy. The yield curve continued to flatten as the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 0.16%, while the 3-year rose by 0.17%. Long-term government bonds were the best performing sector this quarter, up 2.99%, as investors favored safe-haven assets. Long-term corporate bonds were up 0.44%, as declining yields on the long end of the curve more than offset widening spreads. Global bonds were the worst performing sector this quarter, down 2.84%, as most foreign currencies fell sharply against the U.S. dollar. Page 3

Russell Indices - Three Years Russell Indices - Five Years Sep-11 - Sep-14 250 Growth of $ 175 125 Sep-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Growth of $ 50 Russell 0 Index Russell 0 Value Index Russell 0 Growth Index Russell 0 Index Russell 0 Value Index Russell 0 Growth Index Russell 0 Index Russell 0 Value Index Russell 0 Growth Index Russell 0 Index Russell 0 Value Index Russell 0 Growth Index Russell 0 Index Sector Weights Utilities Telecomm. Materials Info. Tech. Industrials Health Care Financials Energy Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary 0.09% 2.35% 2.26% 4.25% 3.39% 6.01% 5.15% 6.03% 6.97% 6.36% 9.22% 12.07% 10.27% 13.20% 13.27% 13.57% 10.30% Growth Weight Value Weight 18.40% 28.17% 28.68% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Russell 0 Index Sector Quarterly Returns -3.15% Utilities -4.41% Telecomm. Growth Return 3.84% 1.01% Materials Value Return -0.17% -1.58% Info. Tech. 4.06% 5.16% Industrials -1.48% -2.89% 7.98% Health Care 2.54% Financials -1.42% 2.03% Energy -10.28% -7.70% Consumer Staples 0.78% 2.88% 0.54% Consumer Discretionary -1.29% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% Source: Russell Investments US Stock Market The major domestic equity indices were mixed for the quarter. The large-cap Russell 0 Growth Index had the best return, up 1.49%. In terms of capitalization, large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks. In comparing styles, growth outperformed value in both the large-cap and small-cap areas of the market. REITs fell 3.00%, as the likelihood of higher interest rates reduced demand for dividend-paying stocks. The worst performing REITs were industrial warehouses and the office sector. Health Care was the best performing sector, up 5.24%, on strong mergers-and-acquisitions activity and good earnings. Energy was the worst performing sector, falling 8.52%, on lower oil and natural gas prices. Page 4

Currency Exchange Rates Units per US Dollar This Quarter Last Quarter % Change Brazil Reais 2.452 2.204 11.23% Canadian Dollar 1.121 1.067 5.02% China Yuan Renminbi 6.138 6.204-1.06% Euro 0.792 0.731 8.44% India Rupees 61.940 60.077 3.10% Japan Yen 109.685 101.278 8.30% Mexico Pesos 13.430 12.973 3.53% Russia Rubles 39.577 33.978 16.48% United Kingdom Pounds 0.617 0.585 5.44% Source: www.xe.com Growth of 175 125 International - Five Years in mixed currency, 75 Sep-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 MSCI EAFE ND MSCI EAFE LOC MSCI Europe ND MSCI Japan ND MSCI EM ND Regional Performance - Quarter Jul-14 - Sep-14-15.41-8.62-7.99-7.45-6.06-4.47-3.26-2.30 1.42 2.34-16 -14-12 -10-8 -6-4 -2 0 2 4 Total Annualized Return, % MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East & Africa ND USD MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan ND USD MSCI China ND USD MSCI India ND USD MSCI Russia ND USD MSCI Brazil ND USD MSCI Europe ex UK ND USD MSCI United Kingdom ND USD MSCI Canada ND USD MSCI Japan ND International Markets The dollar was up strongly against the euro, yen and pound. For the quarter, the EAFE Index was down 5.88%, and Emerging Markets were down 3.49%. Local currency returns for the EAFE Index and Emerging Markets were 0.93% and 0.56%, respectively. Among the major international regions, Indian stocks had the highest return, up 2.34%, as investors anticipated more economic reforms and an improvement in GDP growth. Stocks in Russia had the lowest return, down 15.41% in the 3rd quarter and down 19.90% YTD, as the conflict with Ukraine continued and the West imposed greater economic sanctions. Large-cap stocks, down 5.9%, outperformed small-cap stocks, down 7.8%. Page 5