SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary

Transcription

1 SmartRetirement Mutual Fund Commentary J.P.Morgan Asset Management 3 rd Quarter 2014 Performance Highlights SmartRetirement s Performance Objectives The JPMorgan SmartRetirement Mutual Funds are designed to deliver strong risk-adjusted performance over market cycles, with the goal of getting as many participants to a minimum wage replacement threshold as possible. Broadly, the SmartRetirement Funds seek to add value through: 1) Strategic asset allocation: the long-term strategic asset allocation of each fund is driven from JPMorgan s year forward-looking Capital Market assumptions, as well as our research into participant behavior. Within the design of our strategic asset allocation, we include diversifying beta sources to help us target superior risk-adjusted returns throughout the glide path. 2) Underlying manager selection: in addition to diversifying asset classes, we also seek to diversify underlying alpha sources. All of the active underlying funds used within the SmartRetirement portfolios have been carefully selected from JPMorgan s platform of over 220 investment strategies. Strategies are screened not only based on their individual merits but also for their ability to deliver alpha with a low correlation to our other underlying strategies. 3) Tactical asset allocation: a final way we seek to add value is through short to intermediateterm tactical positions. Our tactical views are derived through a combination of quantitative model output overlaid with the qualitative insights of our Global Strategy Team. 3 rd Quarter 2014 performance The SmartRetirement Mutual Funds delivered strong performance relative both to peers and their respective benchmarks in 3Q14. The Funds all outperformed their respective S&P Target Date Indices and ranked top quartile in their Morningstar peer universes. As our primary benchmark, performance comparisons relative to the S&P Target Date Indices allow us to track our asset allocation decisions against the target date industry at large, as S&P derives the allocations for each index as an average of each vintage s target date universe. Strong relative performance is largely attributable to the Mutual Funds strategic asset allocation; the SmartRetirement glide path performed well in the third quarter, measured by our custom benchmarks outperforming their corresponding S&P Target Date Indices across most vintages. Constructed as a weighted average of our underlying fund benchmarks, our custom benchmarks allow us to compare our strategic asset allocation decisions to the broader peer universe. Through the inclusion of diversifying asset classes such as extended fixed income and inflation sensitive asset classes, our strategic asset allocation continues to serve as a strong anchor to the Funds relative performance. Manager selection detracted from Fund performance over the quarter. The JPMorgan International Opportunities Fund, weighted higher in the later dated funds, was the largest detractor, which resulted in a more negative manager selection effect in the Funds compared to the Income-2020 Funds. However, the International Equity Fund and Intrepid America Fund performed well in 3Q14. Tactical asset allocation has historically been a strong uncorrelated source of alpha to our portfolios, allowing us to take short-term views on global markets in a risk-controlled framework. The SmartRetirement Funds themselves outperformed their custom benchmarks, due to tactical asset allocation contributing positively across vintages. Performance was largely driven by our equity positions our underweight positions to Developed Asian Equity and UK Equity both contributed positively to performance relative to our custom benchmark. In addition, in the funds closest to

2 retirement, an underweight position to Commodities added value. The largest detractor from a tactical perspective over the quarter was our overweight position to Emerging Markets Debt. We maintain confidence in our long-term investment process, with an emphasis on seeking to provide superior risk-adjusted returns for participants in a highly diversified portfolio. Manager Change in 3Q14 Within the Global Investment Management Solutions Global Multi-Asset Group, our dedicated manager research team undertakes vigorous quantitative and qualitative analysis to identify which strategies will add value to the portfolios and those that are candidates for removal. When we choose underlying strategies we take into consideration a number of factors including, but not limited to: Performance, consistency of performance over time, and confidence that performance will continue Information ratio Actual versus target tracking error Investment strategy Stability of the portfolio management team Correlation of excess returns with other products in the fund With this in mind, we chose to remove our allocation to International REITS (the JPMorgan International Real Estate Securities Fund) in 3Q14. We added this allocation to U.S. REITs, and the overall strategic allocation to REITs within our glide path remains unchanged. Relative to International REITs, which are often highly correlated with EAFE Equity, we believe U.S. REITs give us better access to the beta exposure and diversification we desire in our asset allocation. Our investment process continues to focus on the goal of maximizing the number of participants who reach their minimum level of retirement wage replacement. The manager change made in 3Q14 was implemented with this goal in mind. Portfolio Outlook As a result of our September Quadrimestre, our portfolio risk allocation can be described as long stocks and underweight fixed income but with a neutral duration position. We see the current market environment not as a great rotation, but as a world where persistent diversification is key. We believe that U.S. economic growth will be above trend in the next 12 months, leading the global growth story. Improving economic and EPS growth as well as increased consumer confidence all point to a supportive environment for U.S. stocks. From a credit perspective, we believe it is difficult to take a negative view on duration considering the backdrop of loose global monetary policy. We anticipate a flattening in the U.S. yield curve, largely driven by rising rates in the shorter end of the curve but lower long rates due to foreign demand and global monetary policy divergence. Therefore, we take a neutral view on duration. Globally, we believe growth in both Europe and Japan will likely rely on stimulus. In Europe, the risk of deflation remains, though ECB action may help. Japan is still absorbing the impact of the consumption tax hike. EPS momentum is rising, but further BoJ stimulus is necessary. Further, we believe emerging markets face an uncomfortable period of adjustment relating to the recent rapid build-up in debt and the strengthening dollar. UK stocks and Commodities remain our most preferred underweights. In the UK, we believe that growth performance is already priced into the market. Risks to the UK market include strengthening currency as well as increased political risk with the May 2015 election. Regarding Commodities, the demand outlook for industrial Commodities has been low, while global supply remains ample. We believe oil prices are likely to drift lower absent geopolitical tension.

3 JPMorgan SmartRetirement Mutual Funds: Performance as of September 30, 2014 (net of fees) JPMorgan SmartRetirement Funds As of September 30, 2014 Sep-14 3 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year Since Inception* Inception Date JPMorgan SmartRetirement Income Fund -1.76% -0.93% 3.40% 6.84% 8.82% 7.39% 4.93% 5.56% 5/15/2006 S&P Target Date Retirement Income Index -1.29% -0.63% 3.51% 6.00% 7.38% 6.68% 4.04% 5.07% Income Custom Benchmark -1.86% -1.10% 4.00% 6.77% 8.14% 7.11% 5.14% 5.88% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2015 Fund SM -1.95% -0.97% 3.65% 7.84% 11.13% 8.88% 4.63% 5.77% 5/15/2006 S&P Target Date 2015 Index -1.81% -1.13% 3.77% 8.01% 11.13% 8.75% 4.41% 5.81% 2015 Custom Benchmark -2.00% -1.11% 4.28% 7.81% 10.23% 8.46% 4.51% 5.90% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2020 Fund SM -2.25% -1.04% 4.08% 9.26% 13.31% 10.09% 4.96% 6.23% 5/15/2006 S&P Target Date 2020 Index -2.02% -1.35% 3.83% 8.83% 12.69% 9.59% 4.48% 6.03% 2020 Custom Benchmark -2.27% -1.13% 4.78% 9.30% 12.35% 9.55% 4.49% 6.14% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2025 Fund SM -2.49% -1.14% 4.16% 10.32% 15.24% 10.92% 5.18% 5.67% 7/31/2007 S&P Target Date 2025 Index -2.24% -1.61% 3.79% 9.41% 14.01% 10.28% 4.49% 5.05% 2025 Custom Benchmark -2.46% -1.19% 4.94% 10.24% 13.97% 10.27% 4.37% 4.93% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2030 Fund SM -2.66% -1.26% 4.17% 11.17% 16.76% 11.52% 5.04% 6.61% 5/15/2006 S&P Target Date 2030 Index -2.41% -1.79% 3.80% 10.00% 15.22% 10.85% 4.41% 6.23% 2030 Custom Benchmark -2.66% -1.34% 5.00% 10.95% 15.26% 10.87% 4.22% 6.16% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2035 Fund SM -2.88% -1.42% 4.08% 11.70% 18.03% 12.00% 5.34% 5.87% 7/31/2007 S&P Target Date 2035 Index -2.56% -1.95% 3.80% 10.53% 16.15% 11.32% 4.36% 4.97% 2035 Custom Benchmark -2.84% -1.49% 5.00% 11.52% 16.43% 11.34% 4.36% 4.96% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2040 Fund SM -2.97% -1.52% 4.14% 11.97% 18.35% 12.20% 5.37% 6.90% 5/15/2006 S&P Target Date 2040 Index -2.68% -2.08% 3.78% 10.87% 16.84% 11.65% 4.35% 6.33% 2040 Custom Benchmark -2.95% -1.59% 5.00% 11.75% 16.77% 11.54% 4.48% 6.42% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2045 Fund SM -2.97% -1.54% 4.07% 11.93% 18.35% 12.16% 5.65% 6.15% 7/31/2007 S&P Target Date 2045 Index -2.78% -2.19% 3.74% 11.14% 17.38% 11.88% 4.25% 4.89% 2045 Custom Benchmark -2.95% -1.59% 5.00% 11.75% 16.77% 11.54% 4.48% 5.09% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2050 Fund SM -2.98% -1.54% 4.04% 11.90% 18.34% 12.21% 5.66% 6.18% 7/31/2007 S&P Target Date 2050 Index -2.87% -2.28% 3.72% 11.45% 17.83% 12.05% 4.28% 5.00% 2050 Custom Benchmark -2.95% -1.59% 5.00% 11.75% 16.77% 11.54% 4.48% 5.09% JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2055 Fund SM -2.95% -1.54% 4.12% 12.05% N/A N/A N/A 14.37% 1/31/2012 S&P Target Date 2055 Index -2.92% -2.35% 3.68% 11.69% N/A N/A N/A 14.53% 2055 Custom Benchmark -2.95% -1.59% 5.00% 11.75% N/A N/A N/A 13.26% Note: Institutional Share Class returns are shown net of fees. Plan may not hold all of the funds shown above. * Performance inception: May 15, 2006 for Income, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040 Funds. July 31, 2007 for 2025, 2035, 2045 and 2050 Funds. January 31, 2012 for the 2055 fund. The performance quoted is past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Mutual funds are subject to certain market risks. Investment returns and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data shown. For performance current to the most recent month-end please call Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services at for a fund prospectus. You can also visit us at Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of the mutual fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about the mutual fund. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. This document is intended solely to report on various investment views held by JPMorgan Asset Management. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns will fluctuate so that the redemption amount may be worth more or less than the original investment. Performance information is shown gross of investment management fees. If the fees were included performance would be lower. Performance includes the reinvestment of interests when applicable. Information about fees is available upon request by contacting a JPMorgan representative.

4 Securities rated below investment grade are called High-yield bonds, non-investment-grade bonds, below investment-grade bonds or junk bonds. They generally are rated in the fifth or lower rating categories of Standard & Poor s and Moody s Investors Service. Although high yield bonds have higher return potential, they are also subject to greater risks, including the risk of default, when compared to higher-rated securities. Certain underlying funds invest in inflation protected bonds ( TIPS ). Unlike conventional bonds, the principal or interest of TIPS is adjusted periodically to a specified rate of inflation (e.g., Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers [CPI-U]). There can be no assurance that the inflation index used will accurately measure the actual rate of inflation. The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. These price movements may result from factors affecting individual companies, sectors or industries selected for the Fund s portfolio or the securities market as a whole, such as changes in economic or political conditions. Equity securities are subject to stock market risk meaning that stock prices in general (or in particular, the prices of the types of securities in which a fund invests) may decline over short or extended periods of time. When the value of a fund s securities goes down, an investment in a fund decreases in value. Target date funds are funds with the target date being the approximate date when investors plan to start withdrawing their money. Generally, the asset allocation of each fund will change on an annual basis with the asset allocation becoming more conservative as the fund nears the target retirement date. The principal value of the fund(s) is not guaranteed at any time, including at the target date. JPMorgan SmartRetirement custom benchmark allocation history available upon request. Total return assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains distributions and reflects the deduction of any sales charges or redemption fees. Performance may reflect the waiver of a portion of the Fund's advisory or administrative fees for certain periods since the inception date. If fees had not been waived, performance would have been less favorable. The S&P Target Date Index Series (each, an Index ) reflects exposure to various asset classes included in target date funds driven by a survey of such funds for each particular target date. These asset class exposures include U.S. large cap, U.S. mid cap, U.S. small cap, international equities, emerging markets, U.S. REITs, core fixed income, short term treasuries, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and are represented by exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the index calculation. The original inception date for the Indexes was September 25, 2008 (the Original Inception Date ). Recently, Standard & Poor s (S&P) began providing return information for periods prior to the Original Inception Date. The benchmark returns are from the periods specified in the Average Annual Total Returns tables in the Funds prospectuses. Effective March 1, 2010, S&P modified the method used to calculate Index levels and returns for each Index. Prior to March 1, 2010, each Index was reconstituted once per year on the last trading day of May, with effect on the first trading day of June. Reconstitution is the process whereby asset class weights are established for the upcoming year. Effective March 1, 2010, each Index is reconstituted on the same schedule. However, the Indexes are now rebalanced on a monthly basis. Rebalancing is the process whereby the asset class weights that were determined at the previous reconstitution are reestablished. This process takes place after the close of business on the last trading day of each month, with effect on the first trading day of the following month. The Index returns are calculated on a daily basis and will continue to be calculated daily. The performance of the index does not reflect the deduction of expenses associated with a mutual fund or the ETFs included in the index, such as investment management fees. By contrast, the performance of the Fund reflects the deduction of the mutual fund expenses, including sales charges if applicable. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. In addition to the returns for the S&P Target Date Index Series, Standard & Poor s has calculated, at J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. s request, a proforma return series (the Pro-Forma S&P Target Date Index Series ) from June 30, 2006 through December 31, 2009 for illustrative purposes only. The proforma performance calculation differs from the performance calculation of the S&P Target Date Index Series reported for the period. As described above, the S&P Target Date Index Series reflects annual rebalancing prior to March 1, 2010 (the Effective Date ) and monthly rebalancing beginning on the Effective Date. In contrast, the pro-forma series shows the hypothetical performance of the S&P Target Date Index Series as if it had utilized a monthly rebalance schedule prior to the Effective Date, with the composition of the index being rebalanced monthly (rather than annually) back to the applicable asset class weights, as determined during the annual reconstitution. Reconstitution is the process whereby asset class weights are established for the upcoming year. The pro-forma returns were calculated on a monthly basis (rather than the daily basis currently used to calculate the S&P Target Date Index Series) and using different software, which may have different data sources. Thus, it is possible that there may be differences in the source data and in the mathematical computations between the pro-forma returns and what the numbers would have been had they been calculated on a daily basis for this period. The performance of the index does not reflect the deduction of expenses associated with a mutual fund or the ETFs included in the index, such as investment management fees. By contrast, the performance of the Fund reflects the deduction of the mutual fund expenses, including sales charges if applicable. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. JPMorgan Funds are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the Funds. Products and services are offered by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. Mutual Funds may be offered through J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Mutual funds are subject to market risks. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. JPMorgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. IRS 230 Circular Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. taxrelated penalties. Copyright 2014 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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