Canada s Oil & Gas Industry - Opportunities & Challenges Dave Collyer Enbridge Research in Action Seminar Calgary January 19, 2015
Growth in Global Energy Demand The Reality Check Energy Demand Growth All Forms of Energy, Developed Responsibly Population growth Standard of living Ongoing high reliance on hydrocarbons Increasing role for renewables Shift to non-conv. oil & natural gas 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 million tonnes oil equivalent Other Renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal Technology - Key Lever for Sustainable Growth 2 Production Cost competitiveness Environmental performance 6,000 4,000 Ongoing reliance on fossil fuels (share of energy consumption): 2,000 2011: 82% Source: International Energy Agency New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook 2011 2035: 76% 0 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013
The Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Industry - A Key Driving Force in the Economy Invested $74 billion in Canada in 2013 Largest private sector investor in Canada Payments to governments average about $18 billion per year 20% of the value on Toronto Stock Exchange Approximately 20% of Canada s exports Employs more than 550,000 in Canada (direct& indirect) Near term price declines impact all of above areas Canada s Circumstance A resourcebased exporting economy. 140 Upstream 120 Oil & Gas 100 80 60 Annual Revenues ($ Billions) Major Canadian Products Selling Auto Manufacturing Industries 40 20 0 Forestry & Logging Wheat & Barley Uranium Source: ARC Financial & CAPP
Oil Sands is Significant on a Global Scale 300 298 266 World Oil Reserves Open to Private Sector billion barrels 250 200 150 100 173 157 140 102 92 80 Restricted (81%) Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 53% 50 48 37 32 30 25 24 0 Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria United States Kazakhstan Qatar China Other 47% Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2013 & AER 2014 4
Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast Source: CAPP
2013 Canada and U.S. Refinery Demand U.S. Trends: Flat to declining demand Increasing production (tight oil) Decreasing imports 35 30 25 Canada Mexico Saudi Venezuela per cent 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6
Global Crude Oil Imports and Exports (million b/d) 7 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 New Policies Scenario
North American Natural Gas Supply Outlook Shale gas supply a game-changer 100+ years supply Technology success (horizontal drilling, fracturing, completions) Implications: New producing regions Shifting S / D dynamics Changes in p/ l flows Emerging stakeholder challenges (env. & social)
Imports to Asian Economies with Growing Natural Gas Requirements (Bcf/d) Source: EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook
Natural Gas Market Growth Opportunities Market Opportunities for Canadian Natural Gas Declining traditional markets (displaced by U.S. shale) Potential West Coast LNG exports Oil sands growth Limited transportation market growth Limited coal shutdown upside (in Canada) Atlantic Canada export potential BC LNG Export Market Potential ~ 18 proposed LNG projects ~ 6 proposed pipeline projects + 15 BCF/D proposed export volume BC LNG tax framework in place Export permits largely in place Provincial environmental permits advancing BC gov t goal is 3 projects by 2020 Prince Rupert Kitimat Vancouver Source: BC government (LNG project information)
Canada s Oil & Gas Industry - Opportunities Reserves & production growth to meet domestic & export market demand crude oil & natural gas Energy security & reliability Canadian oil for Canadians Leadership in environmental performance & technology Economic prosperity, building on our strengths: Revenues to governments Business opportunities Jobs More affordable energy for Canadian industry Opportunities for Aboriginal peoples Platform for economic diversification 11
The Evolving External Context Globalization Price declines & increasing price volatility Increasing media focus on energy & env. Rise of social media.connectivity / mobilization Increasing polarization of interests Parochialism / NIMBYism vs. broader interests Loss of confidence in institutions Increasing concern re. social inequality Increasing activism by Aboriginal peoples Public aversion to risk (or lack of understanding of risk?). the context in which industry & governments must act.
Canada s Oil & Gas Sector Focus Areas for Industry & Government Competitiveness Diversify markets Address cost structure in global context Public Confidence Improve the Brand Continue to accelerate environmental performance improvements Take communications & engagement to the next level 13
Canadian Pipeline Capacity vs. 2014 Supply Forecast Enbridge Mainline PADD IV Trans Mountain Express Source: CAPP
Global Competition..active and emerging LNG exporting countries Source: CAPP Challenging competitive environment for Canadian LNG projects: Cost structure (incl. new infrastructure) Competing new & established supplies Pricing uncertainty / margin squeeze
We Must Not be the Marginal Economic Producer 2,400 Labour Costs (Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction) 2,200 AB Weekly Earnings $C 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 $2,000 / week BC ON 1,200 1,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: StatsCan, ARC Financial Corp
Focus Areas for Industry & Government For Industry This Means 17 Competitiveness (in a global context) Address cost structure Step-out action (incl. industry collaboration to address cost & productivity issues) Diversify markets An all of the above approach to diversification of markets & transportation modes Public Confidence (across the value chain) Improve the Brand Ongoing concerted focus on both performance and communication / engagement Continue to accelerate environmental performance improvements Lead in the solution space - demonstrate industry results, build broader coalitions Support world class regulation & environmental monitoring Timely & transparent reporting of oil & gas sector performance Ensure line of sight to benefits.along value chain, by jurisdiction Take industry communications & engagement to the next level Targeted expansion of ground campaign via coalitions, social media, etc. Constructive engagement w/ Aboriginal peoples & public (engage the disengaged )
Focus Areas for Industry & Government For Government(s) & Regulators This Means 18 Competitiveness (in a global context) Address cost structure Smart policy & regulation focus on key priorities that impact environmental performance & enable public confidence Diversify markets Assert legitimacy of policy / regulatory process, rule of law & broad public interest Public Confidence (across the value chain) Improve the Brand Also requires ongoing focus on both performance and communication / engagement Continue to accelerate environmental performance improvements Drive world class policy & regulation across value chain and talk about it Enable world class environmental monitoring & reporting Collaborative approach to technology & innovation Take communications & engagement to the next level Engage proactively on the Aboriginal file Promote Canada s approach to responsible development (but not as industry advocates )
Summary - The Way Forward Unprecedented growth opportunities & challenges: Intense global competitive environment Ongoing market window not a given Price decline & volatility exacerbates challenge (at least in near term) Canada must not be the marginal supplier environmental performance or economic performance Leadership in responsible growth of Canada s resource sector is the responsibility of industry and governments Key near term decisions for Canada: Industry & governments must drive action in Canada s broad interests based on our energy / economic reality Opportunity to leverage our strengths to diversify economy but must be competitive Need to get out of our own way with a sense of urgency! Takeaway - What can each of us do to make a difference?
Questions?