Focus on Geopolitics N.A. Shale & Export Options - A Canadian View
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1 Focus on Geopolitics N.A. Shale & Export Options - A Canadian View International Gas Union October 17, 2012 Ottawa, ON Dave Collyer, President, CAPP North American Natural Gas Supply Outlook Shale gas supply a game-changer 100+ years supply. Technology success (horizontal drilling, fracturing, completions). Implications: Abundant, affordable energy. Significant shift in S / D dynamics Changes in p/ l flows. Emerging stakeholder challenges (env. & social).
2 Western Canada Resource Plays 100 Years + Supply Source: TransCanada Canadian Natural Gas Production Two Price Scenarios (bcfd) Price Recovery Case Note: Prices recover to at least a level of $5.50/GJ Continued Low Prices Case Note: Prices do not exceed $4.00/GJ over the forecast period CAPP 2012
3 Natural Gas Supply Costs (Representative Single Well Economics Established Plays) 5 Required NYMEX Natural Gas Strip for 10% IRR $7 $6 $5 $4 2 year forward strip: $3.66/MMBTU (September 14, 2012) $3 $2 $1 Canada is resource rich, competitively challenged. $0 Pinedale (Crest) Marcellus Wet (core) Pinedale Marcellus Dry (core) Fayetteville (3.4 Bcf) Granite Wash (Horizontal) Montney (10 stage frac) Huron Shale Source: Morgan Stanley Research August 19, 2010 Deep Bossier (E. Texas) Eagle Ford (Condensate Zone) Cana-Woodford (Core) Piceance (Valley - Core) Barnett (Tier 1) Horn River Appalachian -CBM Haynesville Nikanassin Marcellus dry (tier 2) Eagle Ford (Gas) Fayetteville (2.8 Bcf) Jonah Woodford (Arkoma) Wattenberg (Core) Uinta (Shallow) Piceance (Highlands) Raton (CBM) Alberta Shallow Gas Warwick (W. Tx Overthrust) Montney (4 stage frac) Barnett (Tier 2) Powder River (CBM) Alberta Deep Basin Jean Marie (Tight Gas) Horseshoe Canyon (CBM) & CAPP (Forward Strip Price) Canadian Natural Gas Exports, 2011 Impact of Shale Gas on N.A Gas Flows LNG Horn River, Montney 2011 Canadian Exports 8.9 bcf / d West 2.4 bcf / d Northeast 1.4 bcf / d U.S. Rockies Mid-West 5.1 bcf / d Marcellus Existing infrastructure serves N.A. markets. Changing S/D dynamics necessitate market growth: N.A. (transportation, power) Exports (LNG for price & takeaway) Haynesville, Fayetteville, etc. New Supply Areas Increased Flow
4 Projected Net Natural Gas Imports (Bcf/d) Source: EIA 2011 International Energy Outlook World Natural Gas Prices $US/MMbtu Source: World Bank North America Europe Japan
5 Favourable Project Economics Associated with Serving Asian Natural Gas Markets Japan LNG Price Japan LNG Price Japan LNG Price $/MMbtu Gas Price Western Canada Transportation Cost to Coast Liquefaction Cost Shipping Cost Proposed Canadian West Coast LNG Terminals Positives Asian market growth Proximity to Asia Deep water port(s) Robust supply Gov t & stakeholder support Sponsors Location Timing Capacity Status Kitimat LNG Apache; EOG; Encana Kitimat BC Bcfd Phase 1 & 2 total Permits Received Awaiting Final Investment Decision Douglas Channel Energy Partnership LNG Partners & Haisla Nation Limited Kitimat BC Q4 2013/Q Bcfd Export Permit Received LNG Canada Partnership Shell Canada, Korea Gas, Mitsubishi and PetroChina Potential Challenges Multiple competing projects Global scale Cost escalation Market window Kitimat BC Bcfd Early Project Development stage, applied for export license Petronas Progress; Petronas Prince Bcfd Conducting Feasibility Rupert Nexen/Inpex Nexen/Inpex TBD TBD TBD Conducting Feasibility
6 Summary - What s Needed to Make It Happen? Competitiveness Aligned policy (federal & provincial).sense of urgency. Efficient regulatory framework (upstream, infrastructure, export licenses). Stable, competitive fiscal regime. Timely enabling infrastructure development. Win win relationship among producers and markets. Social License Continuous performance improvement environmental & social. Recognition of environmental benefits of use in export markets. Addressing local on the ground issues. FN & stakeholder support. A significant opportunity for Canada requiring shift from N.A. to global competition to realize market window.
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