Canada s Oil Sands Overview and Bitumen Blending Primer. US National Academy of Science October 23, 2012

Transcription

1 Canada s Oil Sands Overview and Bitumen Blending Primer US National Academy of Science October 23,

2 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels World Oil Reserves 60 Restricted (80%) Open to Private Sector 30 Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 55% Other 45% Saudi Arabia Venezuela Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan Qatar United States China Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec

3 Canada s Oil Sands 3

4 Oil Sands Projects in Three Deposits Oil sands production now exceeds 1.6 million barrels per day Athabasca Ft. McMurray Peace River Peace River Seal Horizon Joslyn Creek Syncrude Dover MacKay River Fort Hills Kearl Lake Suncor Fort McMurray Northern Lights Firebag Jackpine $123 billion built from Cold Lake Edmonton Calgary Peace River Hangingstone White Sands Foster Creek Long Lake Surmont Jackfish Wolf Lake/Primrose Cold Lake Tucker Lake In Situ Projects Mining Projects 4

5 5 Land Use and Reclamation

6 6 Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production Forecast

7 Oil Sands production technologies Mining 35 billion barrels reserves 20% of the oil sands reserves is less than 200 feet deep Source: Canadian Centre for Energy Information In-Situ 135 billion barrels reserves 80% of the oil sands reserves is more than 200 feet deep In-situ operations: Do not have mines Or tailings ponds Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) 7

8 Oil Sands - In Situ SAGD Process 80% of reserves produced using in-situ recovery technology Too deep to mine Technologies: Cyclic steam Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Oil Production Steam Chamber Steam Injection Oil Production Reservoir 8

9 In Situ Oil Sands Recovery Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) Source: DeerCreek 9

10 Cold Lake Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) Stage 1 Steam Injection Stage 2 Soak Phase Stage 3 Production Steam injected into the reservoir Steam and condensed water heat the viscous oil Heated oil and water are pumped to the surface 10 Courtesy Imperial Oil

11 Mined vs SAGD Growth Mined Bitumen production : Historically integrated with Alberta Upgraders to produce synthetic crude oils thus this bitumen does not planfully leave the province. Future Mined production designs incorporate a process called Paraffinic Froth Treatment (PFT) which yields a bitumen (and subsequent dilbit/synbit blend) of improved coker yield value for Refiners/Upgraders as well as maintaining required Pipeline specifications. This will have some portion leaving the provincial upgrading network. SAGD Bitumen Production : Million bpd Upgrader feed as well as going to Refinery markets as dilbits/synbits high volumetric growth commodity ex Alberta for bitumen blends Mined Insitu 11

12 Dilbit vs Synbit Raw Bitumen has a density of kg/m3. To meet Pipelines specifications for viscosity and density, and to meet Refinery desired heavy crude yields/qualities, a controlled blend with a diluent is produced. Diluents fall into two categories in general 1) naphtha based diluents used to produce a DILBIT kg/m3 typical density for diluent natural liquids, ultra light sweet crudes, imported condensates, US and Cdn Refinery components nominal 30% diluent required with 70% Bitumen 2) sweet synthetic crude oils (SCO) used to produce a SYNBIT kg/m3 typical density for SCO same as existing SCO from Alberta upgraders to Refiners for 20+ years; residue free, hydrotreated, low sulfur nominal 50% Synthetic crude required with 50% Bitumen higher refinery value than dilbit (improved yield/value) Generallly, the market diluent pricing, access to logistics, production technologies, and Producer/Refiner economics dictate a bitumen produced as a dilbit or synbit. 12

13 Bitumen Crude Blends Heavy Crudes vary blend quality somewhat with seasonal temperature (for bitumen based and conventional heavies). Pipeline designs are for 350 cst viscosity maximum crude and 940 kg/m3 density (one is constraining). Bitumen remains constant, with the diluent ratio changing. Viscosity limit of 350 cst is at pipeline reference temperature deg C = deg F Changes on planned schedule from winter to summer in 2 week increments Density maximums of 940 are approached in the summer and may become the limiting blend constraint for producers then Simple blend example for a dilbit and synbit Blend Component Volume (m3) Density (kg/m³) vol frac wt frac Mass (kg) Viscosity 15 C) Bitumen Heavy % 55.6% ,000 SCO Diluent % 44.4% Synbit Total % 100.0% Component Volume (m3) Density (kg/m³) vol frac wt frac Mass (kg) Viscosity 15 C) Bitumen Heavy % 80.5% ,000 "CRW" Diluent % 19.5% Dilbit Total % 100.0%

14 Bitumen Crude Blends Currently there are many Diluted bitumen crudes in the market Some produced for 10+ years (CL); many new ones in last 5 years Fewer Synbits in the market (due to more costly diluent) CrudeMonitor.ca is a public service providing generic crude quality data for these blends, as well as providing a list of blend names This program is not exhaustive for all pipelines crudes but is representative of all commodity classes including dilbits and synbits 14

15 Crudemonitor.ca Typical density varia3on targe5ng constant 350 cst at Ref Temp (CL shown) 15

16 Sweet Synthetic primer SYN and OSA legacy known sweet synthetics (20+ years) new entries into commodity class adding refinery optimization potential for yield Specifications of quality generally tightly controlled wt% = %off generic sweet synthetic yields Naphtha Kero Gasoil Residue free (no vacuum bottoms yield) 5 PSC SPX CNS PAS OSA SYN HSB SSX Long Lake Light Synthetic Shell Premium Synthetic CNRL Light Sweet Synthetic Premium Albian Synthetic Suncor Synthetic A Syncrude Synthetic Husky Synthetic Blend Shell Synthetic Light (PSC) (SPX) (CNS) (PAS) (OSA) (SYN) (HSB) (SSX) Density (kg/m 3 ) ± ± ± ± ± ± ± 4.0 Gravity ( o API) 36.3 ± ± ± ± ± ± ± 0.8 Sulphur (wt%) 0.08 ± ± ± ± ± ± ±

17 2011 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by Source Thousand Barrels per Day 17

18 18 Access to Markets is Essential