Energy and Climate Policy in Israel Avi Gottlieb Department of Sociology and Porter School of Environmental Studies Tel Aviv University 16 th REFORM Group Meeting September 2, 2011 Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg
Topics (1) Current trends in GHG emissions (2) Main drivers of increase in emissions (3) Aspects of vulnerability to climate change (4) Potential for abatement of GHG emissions (5) Government strategies and policies to abate emissions (6) Analysis of policies and their effectiveness
1. Depiction of Current State of Affairs
Figure 1.1 Trends in Total CO2 Emissions Million Tons 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total CO2 Emissions Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al illio n
Figure 1.2 Trends in per Capita and per GDP CO2 Emissions Tons 11.6 11.4 11.2 11 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GHG per Capita GHG per GDP Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al
Figure 1.3 CO2 Emission by Fuel Type CO2 (1,000 Tons) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Other Kerosene Gasoline LPG Petroleum Coke Gas/Diesel Oil Natural Gas Residual Fuel Oil Coal 10,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al CO
2. Main Driving Forces
Figure 2.1 Population Growth, 1953-1997 Population (1000) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Year Source: CBS
Figure 2.2 Yearly Economic Growth Rates, 1951-2008 GDP, percent change 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Year Source: CBS; since 1964 - calculation change
3. Prospective Impacts
Rainfall (mm) 31 0 30 N 1401-1500 1301-1400 1201-1300 1101-1200 Figure 3.1 Precipitation Map: Average Annual Rainfall (1961-2010) 1001-1100 901-1000 801-900 701-800 34 0 45 E 601-700 501-600 401-500 301-400 201-300 101-200 Source: Israel Meteorological Service 30-100
Figure 3.2 Annual Rainfall Volume (Billion Cubic Meters, Average 5.99 BCM) 12 11 10 9 B 8 C 7 M 6 5 4 3 2 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-2000 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 Year Source: Israel Meteorological Service
Figure 3.3 Projected Changes in Maximum Temperature Distributions* Percent 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 observed control corrected B2 corrected A2 corrected 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 TMAX ( o C) * Mt. Cana'an, including A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios. Source: Alpert et al. 2007
Figure 3.4 Average Daily Heat Stress, July-August 2001 Average 2005 Unusual 2003 Extreme 2008 Harsh Beginning of hot spell Activation of AC 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 July August 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 29 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 29 Day of Month Source: IEC
Figure 3.5 Projected Changes in Coastal Profile as a Result of Expected Sea Level Rise (Tel Aviv to Haifa Section) Tel Aviv Haifa Range of Sea Level Rise Original Coastal Profile New Coastal Profile after Sea Level Rise Sedimentation Meeting Point Sedimentation Erosion, Removal Source: Rosen 2005
4. Abatement Potentials and Costs
MtCO2-eq per year Figure 4.1 GHG Emissions, BAU Scenario (2005-2030) GGG GGG 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 +100% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year GGGGGGGGG GGGGGGGGG GGGGGG Source: McKinsey
Figure 4.2 Emissions of CO2-eq and Potential Abatement (2000-2025) MtCO2-eq per year 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 72.4 76.3 Potential Abatement 31.7 86.3 2000 2006 2025 Year Source: Heifetz
Figure 4.2 GHG Abatement Cost Curve (2030)* Abatement cost Euro per tco2-eq 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 -120 Fuel shift - oil to gas Efficient lighting Energy efficient construction 5 10 15 20 25 * 10 principal abatement levers PV solar power Landfill electricity generation Retrofit residential building envelope Efficiency improvements in ICE vehicles (LDV) Agriculture Industry Buildings Water Refining & Gas Chemicals CST solar power Wind 30 35 40 45 Transportation Waste Electric power Cement Forestry Electric vehicles Abatement potential Euro per tco2-eq Source: McKinsey
5. Government Decisions and Implementation
Table 5.1 Recent Government Decisions Decision Content Sept 2007 Action plan on reduction of air pollution from transportation sources Jan 2008 Aug 2008 Promotion of clean energy use by green taxes 5-yr investment program for renewable energy Sept 2008 Energy efficiency plan to achieve 20% savings in electricity consumption by 2020 Jan 2009 sources Targets and tools to promote goal of 10% electricity from renewable by 2020 June 2009 Establishment of directors-general committee to prepare climate change policy and formulate mitigation and adaptation action plans Dec 2009 Greening Government Initiative with targets for energy conservation, water savings, and waste reduction and recycling March 2010 Establishment of an inter-ministerial committee on formulating a national plan for the reduction of GHG emissions June 2011 Establishment of Climate Change Information Center on adaptation to help formulate policy and recommendations on minimizing vulnerability to
Mitigation? Mitigation and Adaptation? Adaptation without Mitigation?
Thanks for your attention