Socio-economic Transformation of Agriculture and Rural Development Long Term Scenario of A Lower Middle Income Country: Indonesia Case Ernan Rustiadi Bogor Agricultural University 1
Introduction Indonesia is the 4th most populous country in the world with a population of 237.6 million people in 2010 of which 49% lives in rural areas (BPS, 2010). GDP at PPP: USD 1 030 billion in 2010 (the world s 16 th largest economy) GDP per cap. of USD 4 300 at PPP (2010) Indonesia is ranked as a lower middle-income country. 2
The country has progressively shifted from a primarily agrarian economy towards stronger reliance on industry and services over the past five decades. The industrial sector contributed 47% to total GDP in 2010, including around 8% by the oil and gas sector, and 24% of manufacture. Agriculture share on GDP: 15% and employment share: 38% 3
Comparison of countries share of agriculture sector in GDP and share of employment (1980-2007) Agricultural sector's share of GDP 45 1980 2007 40 Vietnam India 35 30 China 25 Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand 20 Korea 15 10 5 0 Japan 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Agricultural sector's share of employment
Long Term Transformation Challenges for Rural Development Current Traditional Challenges as a lower middle income countries (poverty, less access to basic need, minimum public facilities and capital, low productivity of human resources, food security) Vs Globalization, Climate Change, New Paradigm of Sustainable Development (1) Diversification of Rural Economy (2) New and renewable energy, and (3) Shifting of consumption pattern 5
6 Domination of small-scale/landless and low productive traditional farmers have been creating labor surplus in rural areas (disguised unemployment) Massive rural-urban migration, overurbanization in main cities, informal sectors, trans-national labor mobility and others. Population growth rate is considered high (1.5% per year) and still high for more then next 2 decade including in rural, Job-creation policy is the most important issue Developing rural based agricultural and bio-processing (downstream sectors) in rural areas: shaping a more convergence urban-rural development
The Ministry of Agriculture is preparing Long-Term Development Planning for Integrated Agriculture System in Indonesia 2013-2045 (including Forestry, Fishery, Agro/bioindustry and Rural Development) Bioindustry development have been chosen as long term rural based economic prime mover 7
Dynamics of National Macro economy 8
Pertumbuhan Penduduk Perkotaan dan Perdesaan (2015-2045) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Perdesaan Perkotaan 50 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
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Economic growth rate(%), 1960-2011 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,0-15,0 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik
National Poverty Rate (%) Urban Rural National Poor Population
Share of Urban and Rural Poverty (1976-2011) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 #REF! Share miskin Urban kota Share miskin Rural desa 20 10 0
Urban & Rural Monthly Income per capita (US$, 1$=9.500) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Urban Rural
Manufacture Industry vs Agriculture sectors Shares in National GDP (1960-2010) 60 50 Deindustrialization 40 30 20 10 0 Pertanian Industri Agroindustri
16 A need for Industrial-Agriculture Transformation Deindustrialization: For more than a decade, Indonesia has been experiencing a relatively stagnant transformation in term of GDP (agriculture vs manufacture) Lack of labor absorption in Manufacture: Manufacture sectors capacity on creating job (labor absorption) is consider very low, far behind its GDP s growth and its GDP share (25%). Labor absorption in manufacture was relatively stagnant (12%) for more than two decades. Foot loose Industries Rural economies that predominated by leading Primary sectors (palm oil, rubber, coal mining, etc) are trapped to be raw material exporters Weak linkages between main primary sectors and manufacture industry.
10.000 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 Indonesia GDP Scenario (constant 2010 billion US$) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 SIPP KEN JICA Optimistic JICA Pessimistic the world s 10 th largest economy
% on-farm Agric GDP % Manufacture GDP % Agro & Bio Industry on GDP % Agro Services Setors % on-farm Agric Employment % on-farm Agro/Bio Industty empoyment % rural population % Rural Poverty Rate Long term Scenario of Economic Transformation (1980-2045)
CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATION for Long Term National Development 2013-2045 TIERED STRATEGY: 1. GENERAL STRATEGY: THE DEVELOPMENT OF BIOECONOMY- TECHNOLOGY AND BASED SCIENCE 2. OPERATIONAL STRATEGY : a. NATIONAL LEVEL: the development of the based Agriculture for Development paradigm, and b. SECTORAL LEVEL: the development of Sustainable systems agriculture-based Bioindustry in rurals. 19
Bioprocess (agriculture) as solar energy transformation trough bio-processing It takes million years to produce fossil-based energy trough bio-geo-chemical process But we only need a hundred year to consume it Agriculture and bio-processing (plant, animal and microorganism) can produce energy, biomass and traditional agricultural products (food, feed, fiber, etc) 20
Indonesia Export Share on some agricultural in the World (1990-2010) % Coconuts Palm oil Coffee Cocoa beans Rubber 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
COMPONENT OF BIOECONOMY FOOD FEED BIOREFINERY BIO-BASED ECONOMY ENZYME FUEL CHEMICAL BIOMATERIALS Kembali 22
VISION of AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2045 To be a prosperous, dignified, independent, fair and prosperous country with competitive and sustainable agricultural bioindustry system supported by advanced technology driven agriculture, forestry and marine resources economy
MISION 1. To develop spatial plan and agrarian reform as the basis for sustainable bioindustry system development; 2. To develop sustainable agroecological tropical integrated agriculture bioindustry system through the protection, preservation, utilization and development of genetic resources, and extension, development and conservation of agricultural land; 3. To develop economic activities for agricultural input, production, information, and technology within the sustainable bioindustry system through the protection and empowerment of agriculture human resources; 4. To develop agriculture processing system through increased added value of extended post harvest within rural based agroenergy and bioindustry; 5. Develop domestic and global agricultural value chain management system for farm products through the development and empowerment of agriculture quarrantine;
MISION... 6. Develop agricultural research for development system based on local specific innovation, quality human resources development, improved entrepreuneurship, and strengthening agriculture social capital to accelerate agricultural total factor productivity growth; 7. Develop rural agricultural infrastructure to accelerate the transformation process for agricultural and the national economy; 8. Carry out imperative legislation, regulation and management program for the development of sustainable nationwide agriculture bioindustry.
DIRECTION AND TARGETS 1. Annual income of industrial individual farmer of $ 1,845 by 2020 and annual income of industrial agro-services farmer of $ 7,500 by 2040; 2. National food self-reliance status by 2020, national food sovereignty by 2025, and community food sovereignty by 2030; 3. Self-reliance in energy through the implementation of integrated agro-energy for a quater of the total rural areas by 2020, and for the total rural areas nationwide by 2035; 4. Integrated rural agriculture-bioindustry system for substitution of 75 percent of national fossil-based products national product by 2030 (bio-fuel) 5. Bioservices/agroservices sector as economic prime mover for a quarter of total rural areas by 2030, and throughout the country rural areas by 2040;
27 In developing sustainable agriculturebioindustry system an integrated macroeconomic and sectoral policies are required. Toward Integration of: Ministry Agriculture Ministry Forestry Agro/bio industries sectors Rural Development
THANK YOU 28