VIETNAM S ECONOMY A SWOT ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 VIETNAM S ECONOMY A SWOT ANALYSIS The 15th Annual Conference on Pacific Basin Finance, Economics, Accounting and Management Vu Thanh Tu Anh Fulbright Economics Teaching Program [email protected]

2 SUMMARY Vietnam is a small, developing, transition, and integrated economy in a fast changing world Vietnam s growth in the last 2 decade is impressive but relies mostly on quantitative expansion The competitiveness of the nation and the firm is relatively weak compared to major competitors Biggest opportunities emerge from integration Biggest challenges come from competition Biggest threat is backwardness

3 GDP,, Exports, and FDI US$ Billlion Mini Bang Doi Moi FDI Law Boom AFTA Asian Financial Crisis Enterprise Law BTA WTO % Exports 4 FDI - registered GDP growth rate 2 0 Source: General Statistical Office, Vietnam Statistical Yearbook, various years,

4 Strengths of the Economy Economic, political, and social stability Stable and fast growing economy High export growth Large inflows of foreign capital Dynamic domestic private sector Abundant and young labor force Widening domestic market size

5 GDP growth (%) Việt Nam ASEAN

6 GDP growth (cont) Nước Transition chuyển countries đổi Việt Vietnam Nam

7 Export Growth ( ) 06) 18.84% 17.84% 7.60% Trung China Quốc Vietnam Việt Nam ASEAN Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

8 Attraction of FDI (% GDP, ) 06) China Malaysia Thailand Vietnam World ASEAN Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

9 VN-Index ( ) 2007) APEC WTO

10 New business registration Businesses ('000) Enterprise Law Law implemented F Source: Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Ministry of Planning & Investment

11 Industrial output by sector (2006) 32% 30% 38% Dân doanh (23.9%) Nước ngoài (18.8%) Nhà nước (9.1%) Private Foreign State

12 Abundant and young labor force % of pop 12 9 Half the population is age 20 or less under Source: General Statistical Office

13 Real demand growth (%, ) 06) 10% 8% 8.6% 9.2% 6% 4.8% 4% 2% 0% ASEAN Vietnam Việt Nam Trung China Quốc Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

14 Weaknesses of the economy Poor infrastructure Incomplete market institutions Inefficient administration Weak business environment Inadequate education and training Inefficient use of capital Weak competitiveness

15 Inefficient use of capital Countries Investment GDP Growth ICOR (%GDP) (%) Vietnam ('00-'06) China ('91-'03) Taiwan ('81-90) South Korea ('81-90) Japan ('61-'70)

16 Ease of Doing Business (2007) Ease of Doing Business - Rank Singapore Thailand Malaysia China Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Cambodia

17 Low quality of education and training Countries Education and Human Capital Index English Proficiency Index High-tech Proficiency Index Singapore China Malaysia Philiphine Thailand Vietnam Indonesia

18 Labor Productivity Growth GDP/capita (PPP, 2005) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Hongkong Singapore Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Philippines Indonesia China Vietnam Growth rate (%) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

19 Capital Productivity, GDP/capita (PPP, 2005) 40,000 Singapore 35,000 Hongkong 30,000 25,000 Taiwan 20,000 15,000 Malaysia Thailand 10,000 Philippines Indonesia China 5,000 Vietnam Incremental GDP growth due to 1% of GDP increase in invt Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

20 Total Factor Productivity Growth, GDP/capita (PPP, 2005) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Hongkong Taiwan Singapore Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Philippines China Indonesia Growth rate (%) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

21 Vietnam's Exports by Product, 2002 Export Market Share, 2002 (%) Electricity & lights Agriculture produces Telecom Foodstuff Info. tech Coal Plastic Engines Textile Leather Oil & gas Sportwares & children prods Construction & repairs Change in Market Share, (%) Source: Michael Porter, 2005

22 Business Competitiveness ( 01-06) 06) GDP 2005 (PPP) Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand China Philippines Vietnam Cambodia No. of countries

23 New opportunities New opportunities come mainly from the deeper integration MFN, fairer treatment Access to and better allocation of resources Domestic private sector development Economic reform promotion

24 Exports to the US 9,000 8,000 Pre BTA Post BTA 7,000 6,000 41% 5,000 58% 4,000 55% 3,000 2, % 80% 164% 8% 7% 18% 1, % 1764% 29% 31% 21% 28% 3% 38% Primary Products Clothing Other Manufactures

25 Some Challenges More competition More vulnarable to external shocks Transaction costs of policy and institutional changes Unequal distribution of costs and benefits of integration

26 Thank you for your attention! BON APETIT!