ENERGY FACTS Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit: Cosequeces ad Costs The catastrophic accidet at Japa s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plat i March 2011 has resulted i a global re-examiatio of the safety of uclear power ad teaches us a lot about the risks of cotiued operatio at the Idia Poit reactor i New York. Just i the sprig ad summer of 2011, five uclear power plats i the Uited States were damaged ad uderwet emergecy shutdow due to floodig, earthquakes, toradoes, ad hurricaes. A review of the potetial radiological cosequeces of a uclear accidet at Idia Poit, the seismic hazards i its locatio, ad cost estimates of a hypothetical accidet shows just how dagerous the situatio is. gilesashford.com Amog the 104 operatig U.S. uclear reactors, the two uits at Idia Poit, 34 miles orth of Cetral Park, pose heighteed risks. Very large populatios could be exposed to radiatio i a major accidet, the reactors are located i a seismically active area, ad their ower curretly seeks to exted the reactors lives beyod their egieered 40- year lifespa. A accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3 o the scale of Fukushima Daiichi could require the shelterig or evacuatio of as may as 5.6 millio people due to a fallout plume blow south to the New York City metropolita area. People i the path of the plume would be at risk for receivig a whole-body radiatio dose greater tha 1 rem, which for a average idividual results i a 0.3 percet icrease i risk of premature death from cacer. A accidet of this scale would require the admiistratio of stable iodie to more tha six millio people (where people would be at risk for receivig a thyroid radiatio dose greater tha 10 rad). A accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3 ivolvig a full reactor core melt approachig the scale of Cherobyl could put people i New York City at risk for receivig a wholebody radiatio dose greater tha 25 rem, resultig i a 7 percet icrease i risk of premature death from cacer For more iformatio, please cotact: Matthew McKizie mmkizie@rdc.org 202) 289-2363 switchboard.rdc.org/ blogs/mmkizie Christopher Paie cpaie@rdc.org (202) 289-2370 switchboard.rdc.org/ blogs/cpaie www.rdc.org/policy www.facebook.com/rdc.org www.twitter.com/rdc
Image Source: Natioal Agriculture Imagery Program Figure 1: Regioal map of the Idia Poit Eergy Ceter. Figure 2: The Idia Poit Eergy Ceter reactor cotaimet buildigs ad other structures. for a average idividual. A accidet of this scale would require the admiistratio of stable iodie throughout the New York City metropolita area, ad put thousads at risk for radiatio sickess i ad ear the Hudso Valley. A accidet at oe of Idia Poit s reactors o the scale of the recet catastrophe i Japa could cause a swath of lad dow to the George Washigto Bridge to be uihabitable for geeratios due to radiatio cotamiatio. A release of radiatio o the scale of Cherobyl s would make Mahatta too radioactively cotamiated to live i if the city fell withi the plume. The Nuclear Regulatory Commissio s (NRC s) approach to calculatig seismic risk used to oversee Idia Poit is outdated, ad uderestimates the dager of a damagig earthquake that could lead to a radiological release. NRDC estimates that, if the plume of radiatio headed south from Idia Poit to New York City, the cost of a severe accidet at the plat would be 10 to 100 times higher tha for the Fukushima Daiichi accidet, where the cost for cleaup ad compesatio is projected to exceed $60 billio. Radiological Releases i a Severe Accidet The Idia Poit Eergy Ceter is located i the village of Buchaa, New York, o the east bak of the Hudso River i Westchester Couty, 34 miles directly orth of the ceter of Mahatta Islad. 1 Etergy Nuclear Northeast (with headquarters i Jackso, Mississippi), a subsidiary of Etergy Corporatio (with headquarters i New Orleas, Louisiaa), ows ad operates 12 uclear plats at 10 sites 2, icludig the two operatig Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) uits at Idia Poit. Figure 1 shows a regioal map of Idia Poit with 10, 20, ad 50 mile rigs aroud the plat draw. Figure 2 shows a aerial photograph of Idia Poit with labels for the cotaimet buildig 3 for Uit 1, which was shut dow i October 1974, ad cotaimet buildigs for Uit 2, which bega commercial operatio i August 1974, ad Uit 3, which bega commercial operatio two years later. I Etergy s 2010 Idia Poit Eergy Ceter Emergecy Pla, the highest category of emergecy is termed a Geeral Emergecy ad is described as: actual or immiet substatial core degradatio or meltig with potetial for loss of cotaimet itegrity with the potetial for a large release of radioactive material. 4 I 1981, Sadia Natioal Laboratory coducted a study for the NRC that predicted a maximum of 50,000 immediate fatalities as far as 17.5 miles dowwid ad aother 14,000 fatal cacers due to radiological releases from a damaged reactor at Idia Poit. 5 The 9-11 attacks have caused additioal cocer that Idia Poit could be the target of a terrorist attack. I 2004, a study by the Uio of Cocered Scietists estimated as may as 44,000 ear-term deaths from acute radiatio sydrome ad as may as 518,000 log-term cacer deaths could occur i people withi 50 miles of Idia Poit i the evet of a severe accidet. 6 I order to fully appreciate the implicatios of a major accidet at Idia Poit, NRDC used the U.S. Departmet of Defese (DoD) computer model HPAC (Hazard Predictio ad Assessmet Capability) 7 to calculate resultig fallout plumes. The DoD software cotais specific data o the reactors at Idia Poit (as well as at Fukushima Daiichi). Importatly, HPAC computes a ivetory of radioactive PAGE 1 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
elemets that accumulate i the uclear fuel rods of these reactors durig ormal operatio. The DoD model captures may other importat aspects of the release of radiatio due to a accidet at a uclear power plat as well, icludig the radiological source term, the ambiet weather, ad data o earby populatios; these terms are defied below. The source term for a accidet at a uclear plat is the type ad quatity of radioactive materials (fissio products ad trasuraic elemets) released from the core of a reactor, first ito the cotaimet atmosphere ad the from withi the cotaimet ito the surroudig eviromet. This depeds o the desig of a reactor, its operatig power at the time of the accidet, the type of fuel, ad the degree of damage to fuel, to cotaimet, ad to other reactor compoets i the accidet. The DoD code models three degrees or types of uclear facility accidets for PWR large ad dry cotaimet leakage ad failure. I progressig severity these are: gap release; i-vessel severe core damage; ad vessel melt-through. The PWR accidet progressio 8 begis with loss of reactor coolat ad failure of emergecy core coolig, as occurred at Fukushima Daiichi due to Statio Blackout ad earthquake ad tsuami damage. As the core heats up, fuel claddig (the metal sheath surroudig the uraium fuel) warps ad cracks, resultig i release of the radioactivity located i the gap betwee uclear fuel pellets ad the claddig: the gap release. If coolig ca t be re-established, the core gradually melts ad slumps to the bottom of the reactor pressure vessel (the core s sealed steel cotaier), called the i-vessel severe core damage. Fially, if the bottom head of the reactor pressure vessel fails, molte core debris ca be ejected from the reactor pressure vessel ad will react with the cocrete floor below: the vessel melt-through. Prelimiary estimates of the amout of radioactive Iodie-131 ad Cesium-137 discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi uclear power plat i the first itese weeks of its 2011 accidet are 4.05E+06 Curies (Ci) ad 3.24E+05 Ci, respectively. 9 These values are about oe-teth of the quatities of radioactive material released i the 1987 Cherobyl accidet i Ukraie. 10 Similarly, both the lad area highly cotamiatio with Cesium-137 ad cacer deaths from radiatio exposure are estimated to be o the order of 10 times less for Fukushima Daiichi tha for Cherobyl. 11 Much of the radiatio emitted from Fukushima Daiichi occurred o March 15, 2011, i a plume travelig orthwest from the reactors, likely origiatig from Uit 2. Table 1 below shows the DoD HPAC computer model s source terms for progressively more severe accidets at Fukushima Daiichi Uit 2 ad at Idia Poit Uit 3. It is importat to ote that the thermal power of Idia Poit Uit 3 is greater tha for Fukushima Daiichi Uit 2, so there is a larger quatity of fuel ad radioactive material i the Idia Poit reactor. Oce the larger power of Idia Poit Uit 3 is take ito accout, (as show i Table 1) that the amout of radioactivity calculated by HPAC i the source terms for Fukushima Daiichi ad Idia Poit are i fact similar. Also ote that these calculatios were performed for a hypothetical accidet at oly oe of Idia Poit s two operatig reactors, ad the accidet scearios did ot ivolve radiatio release from the spet fuel pools, ulike for Table 1: Radiological source terms for DoD HPAC computer models of accidets at Fukushima Daiichi Uit 2 ad Idia Poit Uit 3. HPAC Fukushima Daiichi Uit 2 Source Term Operatig Power: 2,280 MWt Dry Well Leakage/Failure Boilig Water Reactor Cotaimet Gap Release I-Vessel Severe Core Damage Vessel Melt Through Total Curies 2.80E+07 3.50E+08 5.10E+08 Iodie-131 Curies 2.00E+06 1.20E+07 2.40E+07 Iodie-131 Percet Core 3.8% 23.0% 45.0% Percet of Estimated Fukushima Release 49.4% 296.3% 592.6% Cesium-137 Curies 2.10E+05 1.00E+06 2.50E+06 Cesium-137 Percet Core Percet of Estimated Fukushima Release HPAC Idia Poit Uit 3 Source Term Operatig Power: 3,025 MWt 4.1% 53.0% 67.0% 64.8% 308.6% 771.6% Large, Dry, or Subatmospheric Leakage/ Failure Pressurized Water Reactor Cotaimet Gap Release I-Vessel Severe Core Damage Vessel Melt- Through Total Curies 2.6E+07 3.6+08 5.0E+08 Iodie-131 Curies 2.7E+06 2.20E+07 3.5E+07 Iodie-131 Percet Core 3.8% 30.0% 49.0% Percet of Estimated Fukushima Release 66.7% 543.2% 864.2% Cesium-137 Curies 2.20E+05 1.30E+06 2.90E+06 Cesium-137 Percet Core Percet of Estimated Fukushima Release DoD=Departmet of Defese HPAC=Hazard Predictio ad Assessmet Capability 3.8% 55.0% 69.0% 67.9% 401.2% 895.1% Fukushima, which was a multi-uit accidet with damage to spet uclear fuel storage. Give estimates of the amout of radiatio actually emitted at Fukushima Daiichi, the severity of this accidet would fall i betwee HPAC s gap release ad HPAC s ivessel severe core damage source terms a release of about 8 percet of the core ivetory calculated by the DoD s HPAC PAGE 2 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
code. The three Idia Poit source terms calculated i HPAC bracket the Fukushima Daiichi accidet: Gap release: About two-thirds of Fukushima Daiichi I-vessel severe core damage: Four to five times higher tha Fukushima Daiichi Vessel melt-through: ie times higher tha Fukushima Daiichi. The size of a accidet s source term also depeds o the time ad duratio of a radiatio release. For these calculatios, it was coservatively assumed that the release of radiatio from the Idia Poit reactor begis eight hours after a emergecy shut-dow, or scram. It is withi this eight-hour period i the hypothetical accidet that the reactor core loses coolig; damage to the fuel occurs as it is ucovered ad overheats ad cotaimet is severely damaged. Importatly, durig this eight-hour period betwee scram ad the start of the fallout plume, the itesity of radioactivity i the fuel will decrease as shorterlived radiouclides produced i the fuel durig ormal operatio of the reactor decay. We coservatively modeled the plume resultig from gap release as emitted over oe hour, the plume resultig from i-vessel severe core damage as emitted over two hours, ad the plume resultig from vessel melt -through as emitted over te hours. 12 Ambiet weather determies i what directio, how far, ad how fast radioactive fallout would travel from Idia Poit followig a major accidet. I NRDC s aalysis, we Figure 3: Wid rose for Poughkeepsie/Dutchess Couty Airport for measuremets durig the 10-year period 1997-2007. The umbers idicate the directio the wid is blowig from (0 = North, 90 = East, 180 = South, ad 270 = West), ad the colored bars idicate the percetage of time that the wids blow at a give speed. Northerly ad westerly wids domiate i the witer ad sprig, while slower southerly wids domiate i the summer moths. 24 examied wid rose data for the earby Poughkeepsie/ Dutchess Couty Airport, show i Figure 3. 13 The legth of the petals i the wid rose shows the frequecy with which the wid blows from a give directio averaged over a 10 year period, ad the relative size of the colored bads i a petal shows with what probability the wid blows at differet speeds. Northerly ad westerly wids are predomiat at Idia Poit.Wids i the Hudso Valley are most ofte chaeled by the terrai ito a orth-south axis. 14 I other words, the predomiat ortherly wids at Idia Poit blow south dow the Hudso Valley to New York City. NRDC used the HPAC database of historical weather from a worldwide etwork of weather statios for the year 1990 as well as terrai data to calculate the likely fallout plumes from a Idia Poit reactor accidet i October. The populatio withi portios of the fallout plume is give i Table 2, for progressively severe accidet scearios ad for differet ambiet weather. The first three colums show the umber of people expected to receive a give radiatio dose from exposure to the plume over 24 hours after the start of the accidet, icludig the radiatio give off by ihaled material retaied i the huma body for a log time after the accidet. Here the dose specified is the total effective dose equivalet (TEDE) to the whole body, which is the sum of the ihaled dose, the groud shie dose, ad the cloud shie dose. The U.S. EPA publishes protective actio guides (PAGs) 15 for public exposure to radiatio followig a uclear accidet, ad for doses 1-5 rem or greater recommeds evacuatio or shelterig. The EPA PAG for exposure betwee 5 ad 25 rem allows for emergecy worker exposure for performig lifesavig actios. The EPA PAG for exposure greater tha 25 rem is cautious ad volutary for emergecy workers, give the icreased risk for cacer from such a exposure. 16 The Fukushima accidet earlier this year icreased public familiarity with stable iodie, which ihibits the uptake of radioactive iodie to the thyroid. Accordig to federal guidelies, stable iodie tablets should be take for adults 18 to 40 years of age receivig a dose greater tha 10 rad to the thyroid. The threshold is much higher for older people ad lower for childre ad ifats. As ca be see from Table 2 ad from Figures 4 through 6, the extet of 10 rad Thryoid dose is greater tha for 1 rem whole body dose. The last colum is a calculatio of shorter-term (acute) exposure to radiatio, where a exposure of 75 rad is the threshold for radiatio sickess. For all of these calculatios, o shelterig of people dowwid of the accidet is take ito accout i order to estimate a at-risk populatio. The particular circumstaces of a idividual followig a accidet at Idia Poit would be ucertai. NRDC s calculatios show that the most widespread effects of a severe accidet at Idia Poit would be the risk of radiatio exposure for people dowwid that would icrease their risk of cacer, but ot be severe eough to cause radiatio sickess. We calculated the umbers of people exposed to the plumes that would receive at least 1 rem, 5 rem ad 25 rem of radiatio exposure withi the first 24 hours after a accidet bega. By compariso, over the course of a year, medical procedures ad atural backgroud PAGE 3 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
Table 2: Hazard Predictio ad Assessmet Capability calculatios of the umber of people at risk of receivig radiatio doses for exposure durig the first 24 hours after the give uclear accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3, for differet weather coditios ad assumig o shelterig. EPA PAG Threshold for Public Evacuatio or Shelterig (> 1 rem TEDE) EPA PAG Threshold for Emergecy Lifesavig Worker Exposure (>5 rem TEDE) EPA PAG Threshold for Volutary Emergecy Worker Exposure Due to High Risk (> 25 rem TEDE) Federal Guidelies for Admiistratio of Stable Iodie for Adults 18 to 40 years of age (> 10 rad thyroid dose) Radiatio Sickess (>75 rad acute dose) Number of people at risk Sceario: Gap Release (two-thirds of Fukushima Daiichi) Historical Wids - October Morig (6 a.m.) 102,000 23,000 6,000 162,000 < 10 Historical Wids - October Afteroo (oo) 35,000 4,000 1,000 181,000 < 10 Historical Wids - October Eveig (6 p.m.) 101,000 43,000 14,000 115,000 < 10 Historical Wids - October Night (midight) 86,000 25,000 8,000 105,000 < 10 Westerly Wids (12.5 mph) 87,000 9,000 1,000 293,000 < 10 Northerly Wids (7.5 mph) 2.8 millio 24,000 1,000 4.9 millio < 10 Sceario: I-Vessel Severe Core Damage (scaled to Fukushima Daiichi) Historical Wids - October Morig (6 a.m.) 216,000 41,000 13,000 314,000 <100 Historical Wids - October Afteroo (oo) 229,000 6,000 1,000 311,000 <100 Historical Wids - October Eveig (6 p.m.) 150,000 66,000 20,000 258,000 <100 Historical Wids - October Night (midight) 118,000 28,000 9,000 228,000 <100 Westerly Wids (12.5 mph) 371,000 20,000 2,000 478,000 <100 Northerly Wids (7.5 mph) 5.6 millio 58,000 2,000 6.3 millio <100 Sceario: I-Vessel Severe Core Damage (about four times Fukushima Daiichi) Historical Wids - October Morig (6 a.m.) 909,000 147,000 33,000 1.0 millio <100 Historical Wids - October Afteroo (oo) 691,000 219,000 26,000 761,000 400 Historical Wids - October Eveig (6 p.m.) 973,000 128,000 55,000 1.4 millio 1,300 Historical Wids - October Night (midight) 1.1 millio 128,000 39,000 2.0 millio 3,000 Westerly Wids (12.5 mph) 984,000 339,000 17,000 1.1 millio 100 Northerly Wids (7.5 mph) 8.5 millio 5.1 millio 50,000 8.8 millio 200 Sceario: Vessel Melt-Through (about ie times Fukushima Daiichi) Historical Wids - October Morig (6 a.m.) 1.8 millio 616,000 100,000 1.9 millio 500 Historical Wids - October Afteroo (oo) 1.9 millio 1.1millio 300,000 1.9 millio 2,500 Historical Wids - October Eveig (6 p.m.) 3.5 millio 367,000 115,000 3.7 millio 1,000 Historical Wids - October Night (midight) 3.0 millio 287,000 73,000 3.1 millioi 500 Westerly Wids (12.5 mph) 1.2 millio 796,000 149,000 1.2 millio 700 Northerly Wids (7.5 mph) 9.9 millio 8.5 millio 6.0 millio 9.9 millio 900 Doses show with respect to the U.S. Evirometal Protectio Agecy s Protective Actio Guides (EPA PAG) are Total Effective Dose Equivalet (TEDE), which is the sum of the ihalatio Committed Effective Dose Equivalet, the groud shie dose, ad the cloud shie dose for radiatio exposures abset shelterig. The fourth colum shows calculatios of people at risk for greater tha 10 rad thyroid dose, ad acute doses show i the last colum with respect to radiatio sickess are the total acute boe marrow dose. EPA=Evirometal Protectio Agecy, PAG=Protective actio guide, TED=Total effective dose equivalet, MPH=miles per hour PAGE 4 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
radiatio result i a average radiatio exposure of about 0.6 rem. The added risk of exposure to 1 rem to a average idividual would icrease a perso s chaces of gettig cacer or dyig by about 0.3 percet, 5 rem, by about 1.4 percet, ad 25 rem by about 7 percet. As show i Table 2, the most extreme accidet cosequeces are for ortherly wids carryig the plume to the New York metropolita area. I the first stage of accidet progressio, the Gap Release sceario, about three millio people would be advised to shelter or evacuate, to reduce the radiatio dose ad icreased risk of cacer ad geetic damage. For the ext most severe sceario of i-vessel severe core damage, the computer model predicts over five millio people could receive the radiatio dose allowed for emergecy lifesavig workers, which results i elevated 1.4% icreased cacer risk for a average idividual. Fially, for a vessel melt-through, the model predicts six millio people could receive a radiatio dose greater tha 25 rem, 10 millio people could eed stable iodie, ad potetially thousads would be at risk for radiatio sickess i the areas ear to the reactor. Figure 4 through Figure 6 illustrate the fallout plumes from the DoD HPAC calculatios for progressively severe accidets at Idia Poit occurrig at differet times of the day, usig historical weather data for the moth of October. Figure 7 shows a plume of radiatio impactig New York City for the vessel melt-through accidet sceario carried by light ortherly wids. As ca be see from these figures, the ambiet weather plays a large role i the directio ad extet, ad therefore the cosequeces, of fallout from a accidet. Seismic Risk The NRC staff recetly recogized that the curret state of kowledge related to earthquake threats ad accidet modelig is ot reflected i the regulatios at may sites.16 I geeral, past attempts by the NRC to recocile disparities betwee seismic sciece ad uclear regulatios have ot bee comprehesive, imposig few or o requiremets o previously-licesed reactors. I 1996, the NRC set forth two ew seismic regulatios, but oly applied these ew criteria to applicatios submitted after Jauary 10, 1997. The NRC s attempts to revise seismic risks at U.S. reactors have suffered from two key flaws: either the scope or methods of the review were limited by scarce Figure 5: I-vessel severe core damage calculatios usig Figure 4: Gap Release calculatios usig historical weather data for the moth of October: Four separate HPAC model rus showig the differet plumes resultig from a accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3 occurrig at differet times of the day. A accidet of this scale would result i approximately two-thirds of the radiatio released at the Fukushima Daiichi accidet. PAGE 5 historical weather data for the moth of October: four separate Hazard Predictio ad Assessmet Capability model rus showig the differet plumes resultig from a accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3 occurrig at differet times of the day. A accidet of this scale would result i approximately four times the radiatio released at the Fukushima Daiichi accidet. Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
Figure 6: Vessel melt-through calculatios usig historical weather data for the moth of October: Four separate HPAC model rus showig the differet plumes resultig from a accidet at Idia Poit Uit 3 occurrig at differet times of the day. A accidet of this scale would result i approximately ie times the radiatio released at the Fukushima Daiichi accidet, approachig the scale of the Cherobyl accidet. Figure 7: Vessel melt-through calculatios for light (7.5 miles per hour) ortherly wids blowig radiatio south from Idia Poit to the New York City metropolita area. A accidet of this scale would result i approximately ie times the radiatio released at the Fukushima Daiichi accidet, approachig the scale of the Cherobyl accidet. data, or the NRC showed deferece to volutary uclear idustry iitiatives. Whe licesees voluteered to reassess earthquake risk, the NRC did ot validate the results or eve require licesees to report whether or ot the studies were actually completed. 17 I a 2008 article by seismologists at Columbia Uiversity s Lamot-Doherty Earth Observatory, 18 the authors catalogued 383 earthquakes i the New York regio ad foud cocrete evidece for a previously ukow active seismic zoe that rus from Stamford, Coecticut, to Peekskill, New York, passig less tha a mile orth of the Idia Poit plat (Figure 8). Due to the zoe s proximity to other kow seismic structures, the authors poited out the possibility of a earthquake of magitude 6 or higher alog the zoe. The authors go as far as to say that the Idia Poit site i particular is clearly oe of the least favorable sites i our area study from a earthquake hazard ad risk perspective. This study illustrates that ew forms of sophisticated aalysis, decades of ew data o tremors, ad improved models together provide valuable isight ito the extet to which curret NRC regulatios may be lackig. I April 2011, the NRC coducted a ispectio at Idia Poit Nuclear Geeratig Uit 2 ad reported that the licesee idetified a umber of potetial vulerabilities regardig firefightig followig a Safe Shutdow Earthquake (SSE). The potetial vulerabilities stem from the fact that the fire protectio system i o-safety related buildigs, buried/udergroud fire headers, fire pumps, ad the city water makeup supply are ot seismically desiged which could result i a loss of portios of the fire protectio system followig a SSE. 19 A SSE is the maximum earthquake potetial for which certai structures, systems ad compoets importat to safety are desiged to remai fuctioal. Curretly, the NRC is coductig a process begu i 2005 to evaluate seismic hazards based o ew data for the Cetral ad Easter Uited States; this process is called GI-199. A determiatio of the site-specific seismic hazards ad associated plat risk are plaed for the ext phase of GI-199. However, the overall process appears to be fallig short of implemetig the already-kow seismic criteria established i 1996.O the surface, the results of GI-199 oly PAGE 6 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
seem to establish how these ew seismic evaluatios are cosidered through a cost-beefit aalysis. But if the fidig withi GI-199 emerges that Idia Poit is ideed lackig i its ability protect agaist earthquakes (a August 2010 NRC report revealed that Idia Poit Uit 3 had the highest probability of core damage of ay plat i the coutry) 20 the the implicatios are compouded by the power plat s proximity to large populatios. Fukushima ad the Potetial Ecoomic Costs of a Accidet at Idia Poit The cost of the uclear accidet at Fukushima Daiichi is eormous. I August of 2011 Tokyo Electric Power Compay (TEPCO), the utility which ows the Fukushima Daiichi reactors ad other plats impacted by the Great East Japa Earthquake ad tsuami, posted a $7.39 billio loss for its April to Jue quarter. 21 This loss icludes a projectio of costs through the fial phase of TEPCO s roadmap to achieve cold shutdow of the Fukushima reactors betwee October 2011 ad Jauary 2012. TEPCO's estimated losses, detailed i the assessmet, icluded: $680 millio operatig loss due to suspeded operatios at uclear plats ad replacemet with thermal geeratig capacity $1.37 billio cost for resources to brig the crisis at the plat uder cotrol $1.15 billio compesatio for metal distress caused by the accidet $1.32 billio compesatio to compaies that became ioperable due to the evacuatio orders ad other reasos $1.84 billio compesatio to people who could ot work because of the accidet $870 millio compesatio for losses caused by shipmet restrictios o agriculture ad marie products due to radiatio cotamiatio. O September 9, 2011, the Japaese govermet aouced that it plaed to sped $2.9 billio o cleaig up residetial areas cotamiated by the Fukushima accidet. Japa s Chief Cabiet Secretary Osamu Fujimura described the govermet s pla to build a facility to store radioactive material i Fukushima Prefecture before it is removed to Figure 8: Earthquake locatios as measured by seismic istrumets betwee 1974 ad 2007. Arrows deote the boudaries of the Ramapo Seismic Zoe (map data from Sykes, Armbruster, Kim ad Seeber). Figure 9: Cesium-137 log-term groud cotamiatio calculated for two accidet scearios at Idia Poit Uit 3 ad for light (7.5 mph) ortherly wids. PAGE 7 Nuclear Accidet at Idia Poit
a fial disposal site. 22 These costs are i additio to multibillio capital losses from destructio of the reactors themselves ad loss of the value of their future geeratig capacity. Ad more recetly, a Japaese govermet pael reviewig TEPCO s fiaces projected that the utility compay would evetually face damages of at least $59 billio. 23 Real estate ad ecoomic activity withi the New York area is amog the most valuable i the world. The damage claims from radioactive cotamiatio of this regio would be vast. I the 2004 Uio of Cocered Scietists study, the ecoomic damages withi 100 miles of Idia Poit were calculated to exceed $1.1 trillio for the worst cases evaluated, usig NRC methodologies. Estimatig the full cost of a severe accidet at Idia Poit is difficult, but it ca be iferred from two factors that the cost of a accidet at the power plat would ideed be oe to two orders of magitude higher tha the evetual total cost of the Fukushima Daiichi accidet. First, it is likely that wids blew some of the fallout from Fukushima Daiichi eastward out to sea, reducig the radiatio dose to earby populatios ad dimiishig cotamiatio of lad. Secod, the Fukushima Daiichi accidet was located i a predomiatly o-urba area. Neither of these cosideratios would hold for Idia Poit. Oe factor affectig the cost of a accidet at Idia Poit would be the extet of the groud cocetratio of radioactive materials dowwid from the reactor. Followig the Cherobyl accidet, cesium-137, a radiouclide with a half-life of about 30 years, cotamiated over 1,000 square kilometers to a level greater tha 40 Curies per square kilometer, a level of cotamiatio at which the populatio was ecouraged to leave permaetly. The accidet at Fukushima Daiichi produced a zoe of similar levels of cotamiatio of cesium-137 to the orthwest of the plat over about 175 square kilometers. NRDC s calculatios for a Fukushima-scale accidet ad for a Cherobyl-scale accidet at Idia Poit, o a day with typical, ortherly wids, are show i Figure 9. As ca be see from this figure, a accidet at oe of Idia Poit s reactors o the scale of Cherobyl s would make Mahatta too radioactively cotamiated to live i if the city fell withi the plume. Edotes 1 The Idia Poit site measures 239 acres ad is cetered at 41 16 11 latitude, 73 57 8 logitude (41.269722 N, 73.952222 W). 2 I additio to the two uits at Idia Poit, Etergy Nuclear ows ad operates: Arkasas Nuclear (Uits 1 ad 2) ear Russellville, Arkasas; Cooper Nuclear Statio ear Browville, Nebraska; FitzPatrick i Oswego, New York; Grad Gulf Nuclear Statio ear Port Gibso, Mississippi; Pilgrim Nuclear Power Statio i Plymouth, Massachusetts; Palisades Power Plat i Covert, Michiga; River Bed Statio ear St. Fracisville, Louisiaa; Vermot Yakee i Vero, Vermot; ad Waterford 3 i Taft, Louisiaa. 3 Of the three types of cotaimet structures for PWRs Large Dry, Subatmospheric, ad Ice Codeser Idia Poit Uit 2 ad Uit 3 have steel-lied reiforced cocrete Large Dry cotaimet structures with hemispherical domes ad flat bases. 4 Frak Phillips ad Bria Sulliva Idia Poit Eergy Ceter Emergecy Pla, (Revisio 10, Etergy Corporatio, December 2010), pp. D-5, D-17. 5 Subcommittee o Oversight & Ivestigatios, Committee o Iterior ad Isular Affairs, U.S. House of Represetatives, Calculatio of Reactor Accidet Cosequeces (CRAC2) For U.S. Nuclear Power Plats Coditioal o a SST1 Release, November 1, 1982. I July, 2011 the Uio of Cocered Scietists aalyzed documets it obtaied uder the Freedom of Iformatio Act from the NRC, ad foud that a updated aalysis of severe uclear accidets NRC s State of the Art Reactor Cosequece Aalysis or SOARCA did ot differ substatially from the 1982 study. See: http:// allthigsuclear.org/post/8243137367/rc-study-shows-the-serious-cosequeces-of-a. 6 Edwi S. Lyma, Cherobyl o the Hudso? The Health ad Ecoomic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack at the Idia Poit Nuclear Plat, (Washigto, D.C.: Uio of Cocered Scietists, Commissioed by Riverkeeper, September 2004) p. 4. 7 Hazard Predictio ad Assessmet Capability, versio 4.0.4 ( Washigto, D.C.: Defese Threat Reductio Agecy, April 2004). The HPAC documetatio describes the code as: a couter proliferatio, couterforce tool that predicts the effects of hazardous material releases ito the atmosphere ad its collateral effects o civilia ad military populatios. HPAC assists warfighters i destroyig targets cotaiig weapos of mass destructio (WMD) ad respodig to hazardous aget releases. It employs itegrated source terms, high-resolutio weather forecasts ad particulate trasport algorithms to rapidly model hazard areas ad huma collateral effects. 8 L Soffer, S. B. Burso, C. M. Ferrell, R. Y. Lee, J. N. Ridgely, Accidet Source Terms for Light-Water Nuclear Power Plats: Fial Report (NUREG-1465), (Washigto, D.C.: Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissio, February 1995), pp. 2-3. 9 Masamichi Chio, Hiromasa Nakayama, Haruyasu Nagai, Hiroaki Terada, Geki Katata Ad Hiromi Yamazawa, Prelimiary Estimatio of Release Amouts of 131I ad 137Cs Accidetally Discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plat ito the Atmosphere, Joural of Nuclear Sciece Ad Techology, 48, o. 7, p. 1129 1134, 2011. 10 L. Devell, S. Gutay, ad D. A. Powers, The Cherobyl Reactor Accidet Source Term: Developmet of a Cosesus View, (Issy-les-Moulieaux, Frace: Committee o the Safety of Nuclear Istallatios, OECD Nuclear Eergy Agecy, November 1995). 11 Frak N. vo Hippel, The radiological ad psychological cosequeces of the Fukushima Daiichi accidet, Bulleti of the Atomic Scietists 67, o.5, pp 27-36. 12 NUREG-1465, pg. 9. 13 Ricardo K. Sakai, David R. Fitzjarrald, Chris Walcek, Matt J. Czikowsky, ad Jeffrey M. Freedma, Wid Chaelig i the Hudso Valley, NY, (2006), p. 1. 14 Maual of Protective Actio Guides ad Protective Actios for Nuclear Icidets, (Washigto, D.C.: Office of Radiatio Programs, Uited States Evirometal Protectio Agecy). 15 Maual of Protective Actio Guides ad Protective Actios for Nuclear Icidets, pg. 2-12. 16 Recommedatios for Ehacig Reactor Safety i the 21st Cetury The Near-Term Task Force Review of Isights from the Fukushima Daiichi Accidet, (Washigto, D.C.: Nuclear Regulatory Commissio, July 12, 2011), pp. 25-30. 17 Supplemet 4 to GL 88-20, Idividual Plat Examiatio of Exteral Evets (IPEEE) for Severe Accidet Vulerabilities, 10 CFR 50.54(f) Nuclear Regulatory Commissio, August 29, 1989. 18 LR Sykes, JG Armbruster, W Kim, L Seeber, Observatios ad Tectoic Settig of Historic ad Istrumetally Located Earthquakes i the Greater New York City-Philadelphia Area, Bulleti of the Seismological Society of America 98, o.4 (August 2008), pp. 1696-1719. 19 Idia Poit Nuclear Geeratig Uit 2 - NRC Temporary Istructio 2515/183 Ispectio Report 05000247 1201 1009, Lawrece T. Doerflei, Chief Egieerig Brach 2, Divisio of Reactor Safety, Nuclear Regulatory Commissio, May 13, 2011. 20 Geeric Issue 199 (GI-199), Implicatios of Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates i Cetral ad Easter Uited States o Existig Plats, Safety/Risk Assessmet, August 2010. 21 Kazumasa Takeaka, TEPCO Posts 571 Billio Ye Net Loss i Quarter, The Asahi Shimbu, August 10, 2011 22 Deco Pla May Cost 220 Billio, The Japa Times, Saturday, September 10, 2011. 23 Tsuyoshi Iajima ad Yuji Okada, Tepco Faces Zombie Future as Fukushima Claims Set to Surpass $59 Billio, Bloomberg, September 30, 2011. 24 Jase Berhardt, Victoria Kelly, Alliso Chatrchya, ad Art DeGaetao, The Natural Resource Ivetory of Dutchess Couty NY: Chapter 2 Climate ad Air Quality, Revised October 2010, pp. 13-14. Prited o recycled paper Natural Resources Defese Coucil October 2011 www.rdc.org/policy