The Economist / YouGov 4 Presidential Election Internet Poll: Post-Debates Report Morris P. Fiorina, Jon Krosnick, and Samuel J. Abrams YouGov began weekly polling immediately after the July 4 holiday weekend. As of October, 16 polls have been completed with sample sizes of approximately respondents per poll, most of whom fill out the questionnaire on Monday or Tuesday of the week. Some important dates to remember: the poll of August 2-4 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days after the Democratic National Convention and the poll of September 6-8 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days after the Republican National Convention; the poll of October 4-6 reports opinion surveyed 4-6 days after the first presidential debate, the poll of October 11-13 opinion 3-5 days after the second presidential debate (6-8 days after the vice-presidential debate), and the poll of October 18- reports opinion measured 5-7 days after the third and final presidential debate. All figures reported below are based on registered voters. In a future report we plan to compare responses using alternative methods of identifying likely voters, a matter that has become increasingly controversial given the fluctuations reported by convention polls particularly Gallup s--during the course of the campaign. 1 The data from the Economist/YouGov polls will be made available to the research community after the election. 1 See especially Robert Erikson, Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien, Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics, Public Opinion Quarterly, in press.
Presidential Trial Heats As seen in the accompanying figure, the race began as a dead heat and remains so today. In contrast to reports in many other reported polls, the YouGov responses indicate that John received a modest bounce after the Democratic Convention, a bounce that did not erode until the latter part of August. On the order of 3 percent, this bounce came from the ranks of those who previously reported intending to vote for someone other than or Nader. support began trending upward in mid-august and the Republican Convention seems to have added little or nothing to that trend. Compared to previous conventions the bounces were very small, but contrary to the prevailing impression the YouGov data suggest that received more of a bounce than. The presidential debates have only a faint reflection in the YouGov trial heats, although partisans can take some consolation in the slight lead that opened up after the first debate. and have been neck and neck since late August. Indeed, the most striking feature of the trial heat series is the picture of aggregate stability it conveys. In contrast to conventional telephone polls which have reported considerable (at times, embarrassing) variability, the intended vote for both candidates in the YouGov panel has fluctuated within a narrow band of 5 percent or so. 2 Conventions, swift boat attacks, Iraqi car bombs, poor job reports and debate victories have had little or no net impact. 2 One bone of contention in the debate about fluctuations in the conventional telephone polls is the partisan composition of the samples. More often than not the YouGov panel contains marginally more Republicans than Democrats. In particular, the three October (post-debate) polls reported below each include about 35 percent Republicans and percent Democrats. 2
Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W., the Republican; John F, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else? 9 Percentage (%) in Support of Candidate 5 July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 31-1 6-8 13-15 -22 27-29 Oct. 4-5 Oct. 11-12 Oct. 18- Nader Source: Economist/YouGov poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote. 3
Presidential Approval As with the trial heat data there has been very little movement in judgments of George W. s performance as president. Approval has tracked slightly south of fifty percent all summer, a bit lower than conventional polls have reported. In contrast to conventional polls, the president s approval ratings never have cleared 5 percent in the YouGov surveys. By historical standards he remains in dangerous territory, electorally speaking. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. is handling his job as President? 9 Percentage (%) Satisfied/Dissatisfied 5 July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 6-31- 8 1 13-15 -22 27-29 Oct. 4-5 Oct. 11-12 Oct. 18- Approve Disapprove Source: Economist/YouGov Poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 4
Direction of the Country Majorities of registered voters consistently express dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the country, a sentiment that rose above sixty percent in the mid- August YouGov poll, gradually diminished until the end of summer, then stabilized in the mid-high 5 percent range. As with presidential performance, this indicator that many view as one of the fundamentals shows a clear weakness in the president s position. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? 9 Percentage (%) Satisfied/Dissatisfied 5 July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 2-4 August 9-11 16-18 23-25 31-1 6-8 13-15 -22 27-29 Oct. 4-5 Oct. 11-12 Oct. 18- Satisfied Dissatisfied Source: Economist/YouGov Poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 5
Voter Engagement in the Campaign Consistent with conventional polls, registered voters in the YouGov panel express a high level of concern with the outcome of the election: 9 percent claim such emotional engagement. But only a little more than half the number who care a good deal about the outcome report that they have been very interested in the campaign, although the number of such interesteds rose a few percentage points over the course of the campaign. A steady ten percent of the YouGov panel reports lack of interest in the campaign. Generally speaking, would you say that you personally care a good deal who wins the presidential election this fall, or that you don t care very much who wins? 9 Percent (%) 5 July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 31-1 6-8 13-15 -22 27-29 Oct. 4-5 Oct. 11-12 Oct. 18- Care a good deal Don t care very much Don t know Source: Economist/YouGov Poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote. 6
Some people don t pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested or not much interested in the political campaigns so far this year? 9 Percent (%) 5 July 5-6 July 12-14 July 19-21 July 26-28 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 31-1 6-8 13-15 -22 27-29 Oct. 4-5 Oct. 11-12 Oct. 18-2 Very much interested Somewhat interested Not much interested Source: Economist/YouGov Poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote. 7
Candidate Qualities The following series of graphs describes how registered voters evaluate the candidates) as opposed to the issues they support and the policies they advocate). The general picture is one of maximum positive evaluation of after the Republican Convention that erodes somewhat after the first debate. The only trait on which has a clear and significant advantage is intelligence. His advantage diminished somewhat after the Republican Convention but increased sharply after the first debate in which by all accounts the president performed poorly. 3 has a parallel but much smaller advantage as the more knowledgeable of the two candidates which grew through the debate period. 3 In the YouGov panel 51 percent thought won the first debate, 18 percent thought won, 21 percent viewed it as a tie, and percent didn t know. 8
% saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Intelligent" July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Knowledgeable" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 9
In contrast, the president enjoys significantly more positive ratings than on a number of the traits surveyed. More than, George is perceived as tough and a strong leader. His advantage in popular perceptions of both qualities increased a bit after the Republican Convention and has diminished only slightly through the debate period. also is viewed as more moral and trustworthy than. Contrary to conventional wisdom which holds that the Democrats are the party of compassion and the Republicans the party of competence, more people view than as caring about people like me, although it should be noted that less than percent of the samples think that such a description applies to either candidate. Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Tough" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to
% saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is a Strong Leader" July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Moral" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 11
% saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Trustworthy" July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Cares About People Like Me" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 12
On the negative side, by a small margin is seen as too close to special interests. The charge that flip-flops on the issues finds a strong reflection in the data, and again, his disadvantage relative to widened after the Republican Convention and has persisted to the present time. Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Too Close to Special Interests" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 13
Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Flip-Flops on the Issues" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote Overall, no more than fifty percent of registered voters, and usually less, believe that a particular quality applies extremely well or very well to a candidate. 14
The Issues Perceptions of which candidate can best handle a particular issue tend to track the extensive conventional poll findings on such matters, with a few notable exceptions. In particular, in the YouGov polls registered voters consistently give an edge on handling the economy during the next four years, a surprising finding given the lackluster performance of the economy during the President s first term. enjoys a more substantial advantage over in perceptions of his capacity to combat terrorism, an advantage that widened after the Republican Convention then fell back slightly after the debates. Similarly, has an edge on conducting the war in Iraq. The data on the two items are extremely similar, perhaps testimony to the Administration s strenuous efforts to equate the two. For most of the summer enjoyed a significant edge on relations with America s allies. closed the gap after the Republican Convention, then s edge reappeared after the debates. 15
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the economy" over the next four years if he is re-elected/elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" or "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the conduct of the war on terrorism" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 16
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the conduct of the war in Iraq" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "relations with America's allies around the world" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 17
When it comes to specific domestic issues, enjoys advantages on the traditionally Republican issues of taxes and crime. But the traditional advantage of a Democratic candidate on most domestic issues is muted or even nonexistent. Only the environment shows a clear advantage for. Health insurance and race relations show a mid-summer advantage for that disappeared after the Republican Convention. Neither candidate has ever had a significant edge on public education. is viewed as somewhat better at handling the gay marriage issue, but relatively fewer Americans believe that either candidate could handle this issue well as compared to other issues. Neither candidate has a popular advantage on the issue of budget deficits actual experience under may offset charges that plans to ask for expensive new programs. In any event, the electorate is not optimistic that either candidate will handle the situation well. How do you think George W /John F. would handle "taxes" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to 18
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "crime" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering " Excellent " and " Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "health insurance in America" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 19
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "race relations" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering " Excellent " and " Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "public education" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answ ering "Excellent" and "Good" w hen assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents w ho are
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "marriage between people of the same sex" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the federal budget deficit" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 21
How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the environment" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 5 July 5-6 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 22
The Race for Congress After the conventions registered voters were nearly evenly split on the matter of which party they would like to see in control of Congress after the election, but perceptions have moved toward the Democrats since the debates: about 7 percent more of the YouGov panel now favor generic Democrats over generic Republicans. Of course, such responses are ambiguous without knowledge of which candidate the voters would like to see win the presidency--they are logically as consistent with forty-seven percent of the electorate preferring unified Democratic control and forty percent unified Republican control as with 85 percent preferring divided control. As usual, public opinion lies between these two polar possibilities: about half the registered voters favor unified party control, about a third divided control and the remainder don t have an opinion. Who would you prefer to be in control of the Congress after the next election? 9 Percent (%) 5 July 5-6 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Democrats Republicans Don't know Source: Economist/YouGov poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 23
In general, do you think it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the Presidency, so they can work together closely, or do you think it is better to have different political parties controlling the Congress and the Presidency, to prevent either one from going to far? 9 Percent (%) 5 July 19-21 August 2-4 August 23-25 September 6-8 October 4-5 October 18- Same party control both Different parties control Don t know Source: Economist/YouGov poll. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 24
Summary The presidential race remains exceedingly close as it heads into the final stage. Presidential approval ratings are at a level that by historical standards is cause for concern in the Republican campaign. Similarly, a majority of registered voters believes the country is going in the wrong direction. President certainly has not yet closed the deal with the American electorate. Yet John has not been able to capitalize on the relative weakness of the President s position. Although he has edged up on a number of indicators after the debates, neither on the issues, nor on his personal qualities has he been able to establish a clear edge over the President. On the contrary, continues to be judged more highly personally and more capable on the issues. 25