Oil, Gas & Global Warming
Oil is Getting Harder Big established growing market The automobile Tight supply and demand balance Drives oil price upwards Drives efforts to produce hard oil: Deeper water, unconventionals: Tar sands, shale oil Higher oil prices drive automobile efficiency Efficiency decreases demand per car Number of cars continues to increase Increase in numbers outstripping efficiency gains
The Other Factor Global warming: Fact or fiction Trend is fact, projections are not fact Explanation is the issue Greenhouse gas (GHG) theory is fact Not the only contributor Argument rages about relative contributions and historical trends versus projections Reducing manmade emissions minimise GHG contribution Major source of emissions is combustion of fossil fuel
Emissions from Combustion Air H 2 O N 2 O NO, N 2 O 3 = NO x Oxygen, Nitrogen Fuel Carbon, Hydrogen Nitrogen Sulphur CO 2 Combustion CO 2 CO CO 2 SO 2, SO 3 = SO x UHC s Particulates CH 4
change Global Warming Mechanism Source: bp Copyright PIEE 2008
Greenhouse Gases & Sources Nitrous Oxide N2O Others Methane CH4 Carbon Dioxide CO2 Greenhouse Gas Warming Potential Sources Carbon Dioxide 1 Combustion, Flaring Methane 21 Venting, Bio-degredation, Nitrogen oxides 310 Engine/turbine exhaust HFCs,PFC, SF6 1000+ Refrigeration gases, industry transformers / switchgear,
CO2 per Capita? Rank these countries in order of CO2 consumption per capita Australia Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE USA Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Tonnes per person CO2 per capita 2009 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 World OECD United Arab Emirates Africa Asia Latin America China Middle East India Brazil Egypt Switzerland United Kingdom Germany Russian Federation Saudi Arabia United States Australia 22.10 Kuwait Qatar Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Inevitable Trend Cost and global warming combining to drive change in the market Market forces drive change in industry Rate of change will be slow Many factors resist change, people resist change Infrastructure of society based on heat, light, cooling and mobility Fossil fuels currently provide all of the above Change will be in stages Become more efficient, use cleaner fuel, use alternative fuel, use electricity from non fossil fuels
More Efficient Both sides of supply and demand In production, responsibility of industry In consumption, responsibility of individual Biggest contributor is addiction to gasoline vehicles Government influences supply and demand Tax or regulation Tax provides continuous driver for improvement Politically unpopular Targets provide temporary incentive Politically acceptable
Environmental Legislation in Europe Pollution, Prevention and Control PPC Environmental Emissions Monitoring System ETS Kyoto Protocol EEMS Emissions Trading Scheme CDM Clean Development Mechanism
Energy Surveys Worldwide
Get Cleaner Natural gas is cleaner than coal and oil Fuel of the 21st century Bigger reserves available LNG industry allows transport over long distances Easy retrofit for oil Easier sell than nuclear Energy intensity higher than renewables More bang per buck Still produces emissions
Use Alternative Fuel Biomass or biofuels produce less emissions in lifecycle Ethanol (biofuel) accounts for 18% of domestic fuel consumption in Brazil Law that vehicles must use 18% ethanol flexfuel Vehicles available that run on 100% ethanol Sugarcane based, sustainable 61% reduction in lifecycle GHG E85 Flex Fuel is 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline 10 million E85 capable vehicles on USA roads Total is 254 million cars and capable doesn t mean utilised USA is worlds largest ethanol producer Corn based, poor lifecycle GHG reduction 99% of production is used in fuel blending mostly at 10% blends
Use Non Fossil Fuel Electricity Renewables: Solar, wind Intermittent need swing capacity Nuclear versus gas: clean swing capacity versus public acceptance What are you most worried about? Risk = Hazard x Probability Nuclear high hazard low probability Gas lower hazard higher probability + GHG produced Remove major demand for oil by using electric cars
Electric Cars Hybrids First step in public acceptance 2009: Toyota Prius outsold Ford Explorer in USA Next step: Plug in Hybrids Electric cars available: Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf Range versus battery size Lead/acid nickel/cadmium lithium fuel cell? Intense R&D efforts (USD10B budget under Obama) Two car households? Short range and long? Charge time Currently 10hours 110V, 4 hours 240V vs refuelling time
Rise and Fall of Oil Rockefeller sold illumination 1898 Gasoline fraction was waste product Ford sold affordable mobility 1911 Otto engine, four stroke internal combustion engine Keeling identified manmade CO2 effect in 1958 Oil discovery lags consumption increase 1969 Conventional oil peaked at 74M bpd 2005 Depleting at 6.8% per year (IEA) despite deep water Extra demand (16M bpd today) from unconventionals
The King is Dead, Long Live the King Margins reducing Heavy oils and unconventionals cost more to produce Production more energy intensive Prices increasing Fine balance between supply and demand World warming Energy intensive production attracts political penalties Increasing emphasis on gas Alternative fuels and renewables now part of portfolio