Sustainable Transport for the Future

Transcription

1 Sustainable Transport for the Future Probable development in the timeframe10-20 years with CO 2 and economic considerations Hans-Erik Ångström

2 Components discussed The business case that don t change Our electric future is more then 20 years ahead Drivers, higher abstract values and personal economy Energy supply, no limitation in 20 years Many small step is the foreseeable future

3 The business case that don t change The car, the machine that changed the world, a tremendous profitable business case, people are willing to pay much more then the basic cost. The heavy truck with modern road net gives the lowest transportation cost in a dominant number of cases were no oceans must be crossed. The environmental friendly train transportation has to fight with the often more attractive alternatives. Shipping is driving the global economy and is the most economic way of transportation. Air transport is the choice for high value goods.

4 Our electric future is more then 20 years ahead Fuel cost for a small car (15 km) sek/year Added cost for electric car ~ No business case when the extra burden of charging is also taken into consideration. Fuel cost/battery cost decisive From SAE Shanghai Battery Summit 2010, prognosis on 3,5% electric vehicles 2020 Why, local emissions or CO 2 For trucks, local emissions have been lowered by 97% (NOx and particulates) Hybrids just an electric transmission where mechanic solutions can do the same job Common argument for subsidiaries: An important step to the electric car Hydrogen, an extra expensive way of using electricity Tesla, an all electric business case for rich people costing 1 million SEK

5 Drivers, higher abstract values and personal economy Greenhouse effect (CO 2 ) is so abstract and so far away that it is a week driver both for business (~10 yr max perspective) and politicians (next elections) Higher values dedication (like religion) necessary for a unbiased interest for the real issue My feeling is that the CO 2 argument can be used with other reasons behind; get research funding, national interest or to support interest groups Personal and country economy is by far the strongest driver (in absence of a new Messiah). The probable sacrifices for lower the CO 2 emissions are very small both for persons and for states with democracy Convenience and safety of operation and energy supply are important

6 Energy supply, no limitation in 20 years Demand of oil will one day be much higher then supply good for CO 2, skyrocketing prices on oil and alternatives, risk for military conflicts, transportation situation (or their fuel mix) would not automatically change because of the very strong business cases involved Higher prices paid for biofuels and natural gas bigger biofuel production as response to price increase natural gas directed from house heating to transportation, since house heating can more economically be replaced by electricity Timing for these events are very critical and very difficult to predict and therefore the profitability of new technology and investments Big temptation to make oil from coal by Fischer Tropsch process (like South Africa) and continue with oil for another 100 yr at least for transportation

7 Many small step is the foreseeable future Lighter and smaller cars and trucks for more cargo More investments for energy saving on vehicles and crafts costly fuel saving devices like energy storage and waste heat recovery, load point optimization has potential to be exploited Combustion and gas exchange system development, control system development, after treatment development, friction reduction have also potential Stimulation for low energy consumption by regulations and taxation; should be technique neutral EU-directive g/km CO 2, more test cycles should be considered my suggestion, km-based taxation for high consumption cars Bio energy now is more economically used for CO 2 -saving in heating and electricity production then for transport Bio energy production should be supported (e.g. from alga) for possible use in transportation when heating and electric production is covered Restrictive with might be important in future