HOW BIOENERGY CAN DRIVE SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT AND REGIONAL GREEN ECONOMY A SYNERGETIC ASSESSMENT APPROACH Florian Kraxner*, Jue Yang, Kentaro Aoki*, Sylvain Leduc*, Yoshiki Yamagata *International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria National Institute for Environmental Studies, NIES, Japan
Study Aims Increasing sustainable bioenergy generation Perception, awareness and knowledge of the public in a Japanese Eco-Model City Ecological and economic incentives Identify policy needs to support domestic forest use Improving Forest Management (SFM/Certification) Sustainable Rural Development Supporting Local Industry Comparison to other Eco-Model Cities?? Is it enough to introduce RE policy without accompanying measures and knowledge on people s opinion??
Background Global Oil Consumption, 2009. UN Kyoto Protocol (-6% from 1990) Biomass Nippon Strategy Prevention of CC Development of recycling-oriented society Incubation of new industries Activation of rural areas Energy Information Administration, 2009. Roadmap to Copenhagen COP 13 (-25 to -40% during next 15-20 years) G8 Summit Toyako Hokkaido (-50% by 2050) IEA: 21% of global energy in 2050 from renewables
Global Future Energy Portfolios, 2000 2100 Source: Azar et al., 2010 Energy self-sufficiency ratio in Japan is 17.5% (nuclear energy is counted as domestic energy resource) and fossil oil dependency was 46.4 % in 2008 (ANRE, 2010).
OVERVIEW - JAPAN Industrialized and developed country Forest share of total area: 67% 41% of which is under management 1% of total forest area is certified Japan 1% of energy supply from RE (mostly waste biomass, only 4% of harvested wood goes into biomass for bioenergy) e.g. compared to Austria 25% of energy supply from RE 25% of harvested wood is used as biomass for bioenergy
Forest Certification Shimokawa Town=0,006.480 mio ha (FSC) 160 9 140 120 100 80 60 UNECE Region PEFC FSC 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Outside UNECE PEFC FSC 40 20 1 0 0 Canada USA Finland Russia Sweden Oliver and Kraxner, 2009 Certified forest area in million hectares Japan
Forest Products Certification CoC (outside UNECE) 1200 1000 800 600 FSC PEFC 400 200 0 Japan China Brazil Australia Hong Kong Vietnam New Zealand Indonesia South Malaysia Africa 2009 Oliver and Kraxner, 2009 CoC certificates by country outside the UNECE region
Forestry Situation in Japan
Methodology Socio-Economic Analysis of Yusuhara Town Public Opinion on Forest, Forestry, Wood, Environment, Renewable Energy Forest Sector Public Opinion Survey Questionnaire
Selection criteria: Rural area Strong forest sector Cooperation with local authorities Certification Target Area in Japan Yusuhara Town, Kochi, Shikoku Island Population 4,860 Area 23,651ha Forest cover 91 % Forestry is a major industry.
The Questionnaire Design Part A: collects general information on the individual household. Part B: investigates people s perception of the local forest and its condition. Part C: tests the public s knowledge on sustainability, certification and the willingness of increased forest management. Part D: tests the publics opinion regarding wood itself and biomass in general. Further, the willingness for a change in forestry or the capability of innovative imaginations is surveyed. Part E: tests the environmental knowledge and willingness to pay for mitigating climate change.
Target Area in Japan Shimokawa Town, Hokkaido, Japan Population 3,860 Area 644 km 2 Forest cover 90 % Forestry is a major industry. Selection criteria: Rural area Strong forest sector Cooperation with local authorities Certification Eco-Model City
The Questionnaire Design Part A: collects general information on the individual household. Part B: investigates people s perception of the local forest and its condition. Part C: tests the public s knowledge on sustainability, certification and the willingness of increased forest management. Part D: tests the publics opinion regarding bioenergy.
Results Gender and Age histogram of age female 34% gender below 20 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% male 66% age from30to39 from50to59 above70 Respondents gender structure Age distribution
Results Forest Ownership and Jobs others, 143, 19% not sure, 17, 2% forest owner, 605, 79% percent of cases 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 agriculture foresty localgov company worke management civil servant self employed housewife part-time worker unemployed other Respondents forest ownership Respondents job structure
Results Forest Functions Public s perception of forest functions carbon storage employment biodiversity 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% forester ecosystem farmer companyworker unemployed water provision wood production recreation disaster prevention
Results Meaning and Use of Forest Agreement to statements on the meaning and use of forest by different job groups should be protected & used good for environment & climate 100% 80% 60% the symbol of nature 40% 20% 0% should be used feel closest to nature needs to be protected forester farmer company worker unemployed
Results Increased Forest Use Forest owners versus non-forest owners levels of agreement (significant) regarding an increased use of the forest (harvesting more trees) under normal conditions (SFM has not been mentioned explicitly) and under SFM conditions (SFM has been explicitly mentioned). forest owners non forest owners 212 104 152 27 22 176 9 18 agree disagree stay the same not sure forest owners non forest owners 55 365 17 69 84 155 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Results Forest Functions Public s perception of forest functions Highest agreement among all respondents as to what constituted the most important role of forest was found for natural-biophysical functions such as forest as important ecosystem and living space. The lowest importance was attributed to forest s role as place for wood and biomass production and for creating jobs and especially as a place for recreation.
Results Meaning and Use of Forest Agreement to statements on the meaning and use of forest by different job groups Highest agreement was stated for the notions forest being good for the environment and climate. As soon as the production function is included to the statements such as that forests should be used by man through forest management and harvesting, the agreement level goes down by some 30%.
Certain combinations favor or hinder the acceptance of increased harvesting in Shimokawa- Town. The pure aspect of certification did not fully convince people to accept an increase of harvesting. Also an increase of harvest that directly goes into bioenergy did not convince many more people to accept it. The situation changes, once a combination of e.g. certification or SFM with the objective of bioenergy production is introduced. Results Harvesting Levels & Conditions Preconditions under which harvesting intensity for bioenergy might change
Results Biomass for Bioenergy, Home Heating Most people in Shimokawa Town stated to have a home heating system based on kerosene (85%), gas (44%) or electricity (32%). Only 8% of all households have their heating system based on wood and 2% are using also solar heat. Especially the use of wood in a Town that is 90% covered by forest seemed to be extremely low and hence offered clear room for improvement. This idea had been also successfully picked up in the Eco-Model City proposal to the Japanese government. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 kerosene 399 gas 204 electricity 148 wood 37 others sola 15 11 heavy crude oil 3
Results Switch Home Heating In the case that the respondents would have been able to easily switch to another heating system, almost 70% would have chosen to switch to a solar option, while switching to a heating system based on forest biomass would have been the second choice, selected by 28% of the public, followed by wind (27%) and pellet systems (24%). The willingness-to-pay analysis indicated that male respondents, when they are older than the average and have a higher income, show most willingness to invest and switch towards a forest biomass based heating system. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 solar 299 biomass wind pellet hydro geothermal 121 119 104 94 84 nothing oil nuclear 24 23 34
Results and Conclusions 1. Unrealized economic potential for domestic forest certification in close linkage to an increased forest use for bioenergy 2. Forest owners, aware of certification, willing to increase forest use, also want to increase the biomass for bioenergy production 3. People know too little about the forest, its functions and its management even on the country side
Where is demand/supply? Heat demand Plantation Forestry
Sustainable Forest Use Very conservative (sustainable approach) Using 0.05% of stocking wood Using much less than ½ increment Forest Certification possible
Scenario settings 3 Sizes of Biomass Plants Definition Min Size Medium size Max Size Biomass input 10 MW 50 MW 100 MW Produce 10-15 PJ Energy per year (BNS aims at 120PJ from total biomass (including waste)
Geographic explicit results S1, all S2, medium only Rural Development Effects: Optimal vs Steered
Geographic explicit results S3, large only S4, small only S2, medium only Rural Development Effects: Centralized vs De-centralized
Policy Relevant Conclusions?? Is it enough to introduce re-policy without decent and well-based accompanying measures?? Forest Bioenergy is Applied and Sustainable Rural Development Link climate change mitigation policies with reactivating forestry in Japan Education/information needs for SFM and FC especially in rural forested areas AND Link technical approaches with socio-economic investigation for better future planning
!Comments!!Suggestions!?Questions? Florian Kraxner kraxner@iiasa.ac.at, florian.kraxner@nies.go.jp www.iiasa.ac.at, www.nies.go.jp