Hitendra Jain - MGK International, Inc. Princeton, NJ A MTC Group Company MTC Business Pvt. Ltd has been in metal recycling industry since last 4 decades and one of the largest private processor & trading house based out of India. It has 9 scrap yards throughout India serving 200+ foundrys & 100+ Steel Mills. It recently bought a Steel Mill with 7000MT/month billet production. Monthly trading volume exceeding 100,000MT of Ferrous scrap and over 3,000MT/month of Non Ferrous scrap with trading offices in UK, USA, India and Dubai
Key Points STEEL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION IN INDIA STEEL DEMAND DRIVERS & CAPACITY GROWTH SCRAP ARISING AND USAGE INDIA RECYCLING INDUSTRY CHALLENGES RECOMMENDATIONS
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 STEEL PRODUCTION IN INDIA 7163 16933 10958 25966 6294 18054 14320 26063 6790 19827 16180 29832 8303 22071 16457 31047 9094 22136 18117 30889 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Basic Oxygen Furnace Electric Arc Furnace Induction Furnace Foundry Source: Annual Report, Steel Ministry 9 MTC GROUP Steel production in India from various routes. The chart clearly shows both Induction and Basic Oxygen Furnace together covers over 70% of steel production where as electric arc furnace covers 25%. Steel Production from Electric Arc furnace is increasing steadily
STEEL CONSUMPTION IN INDIA 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 59288 58645 66130 74726 80009 30000 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Thousand Tonnes 2010-11 2011-12 Source: Annual Report, Steel Ministry 10 MTC GROUP India is a net importer and consumes almost everything it produces. Except few foundry grade goods which it exports.
GROWTH RATE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES VS.DEVELOPED ECONOMIES 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 2011 2012 2013 F 2014 F 2015 F 2016 F China India USA Eurozone Japan 4 MTC GROUP
GDP GROWTH RATE VS. STEEL GROWTH RATE 14 12 10 8 6 11.05 9.3 6.7 12.76 8.4 8.39 12.99 6.88 7.07 4 2 0-1.085-2 2007-08 2008-09 GDP Growth Rate Source: Planning Commission 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Steel Consumption Growth Rate 14 MTC GROUP
15 MTC GROUP India per capita steel consumption is only 55KG/CAPITA where as world average is 200KG/CAPITA and china alone is 427kg/capita so definitely considering the large population and increasing urbanization, there lies a huge potential ahead POTENTIAL OF GROWTH OF STEEL CONSUMPTION IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Population (Mn) Urbanization (%) Steel Use GDP per Capita, PPP$ Per Capita, Kg 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 China 1,347 1,388 51 61 7,503 14,306 427 Turkey 74 81 NA* NA* 12,390 16,675 320 Thailand 70 72 34 39 7, 648 10,884 202 Vietnam 89 96 30 35 2,981 4,803 141 Mexico 115 126 76 77 13,224 16,911 140 Brazil 197 210 NA* NA* 9,961 14,015 133 India 1,241 1,387 30 34 3,195 5,895 55 Indonesia 242 263 53 61 4,094 6,106 37 * Data Not Available
STEEL DEMAND DRIVERS Infrastructure Power Generation Automobile Construction Capital Goods Steel Demand Consumer Durables 18 MTC GROUP The major factors determining the future growth of steel Industry in India are :Low per capita Steel, Structural steel building, Power generation needs, Automobile industry & Infrastructure
CONSTRUCTION INDIA ONLY USES 15% OF STRUCTURAL STEEL AND BALANCE CEMENT WHERE AS USA, UK AND SINGAPORE MAINTAINS EQUAL RATIO OF CEMENT AND STRUCTURAL STEEL 21 MTC GROUP
POWER GENERATION The Power Sector has been growing at a rate of 8.1% p.a. India s per capita energy consumption is only 1,000KWh The world average is nearly 3,000KWh and that of China above 2,500KWh India will need 425GW of capacity by 2022 from the current 200GW i.e. more than double within the next 10 years To achieve this target India will require 18 million tonnes of structural steel and more than 100 million tonnes of reinforcement bar 20 MTC GROUP
AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION In USA 80% of people owns vehicle where as in China about 8.3% and India its only 1.8% 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Source: SIAM Automobile (Million Units) 22 MTC GROUP
FUTURE GROWTH OF AUTOMOBILES Source: Economic Times 23 MTC GROUP
INFRASTRUCTURE EXPENDITURE INDIA S EXPENDITURE ON LOGISTICS IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD EQUIVALENT TO 13% OF GDP, USA IT S 9.9% OF GDP, EUROPE IT S 10% AND 14000 JAPAN IT S 11.4% 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Power Roads Telecom Railways Ports & Airports Others Source: Planning Commission 19 MTC GROUP
EXPECTED GREENFIELD PRODUCTION CAPACITY Approx. Capacity (in State No. of MOU s Signed Million Tonnes per Annum Orissa 63 81.16 Jharkhand 49 105.11 Chattisgarh 76 60.00 West Bengal 16 39.40 Karnataka 57 173.00 Andhra Pradesh 18 11.79 Other States 22 18.20* Total 301 488.66 Source: Annual Report, Steel Ministry 17 MTC GROUP
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BREAK UP OF STEEL PRODUCED THROUGH VARIOUS RAW MATERIALS 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2007-08 2008-09 Source: Annual Report, Steel Ministry Scrap Sponge Iron Pig Iron Hot Metal 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 19% 28% 6% 47% 11 MTC GROUP India utilizes 20% scrap for steel production and where as 80% of the raw material is in the form of hot metal/spong iron/pig iron which are reduced form of iron ore
CATEGORY WISE SCRAP ARISING 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 200 0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Domestic Imports Ship Breaking Source: Annual Report, Steel Ministry 12 MTC GROUP India consumes around 15 million tons of scrap annually comprising of imports, local ship breaking and local industry. The number of ships coming in for breaking will be tripled in next 2 decades.
MAJOR STEEL SCRAP EXPORTERS In Million Tonnes 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* USA 16.64 21.71 22.44 20.56 24.37 24.00 EU-27 10.57 12.80 15.78 19.03 18.77 18.00 Japan 6.45 5.34 9.40 6.47 5.44 6.00 Canada 4.10 4.08 4.79 5.15 4.83 5.00 Russia 7.86 5.13 1.20 2.39 4.04 5.00 Australia 1.50 1.71 1.93 1.64 1.75 2.00 South Africa 0.75 1.27 1.14 1.22 1.44 2.00
MAJOR STEEL SCRAP IMPORTERS Middle East 8% Rest of Africa 6% South Africa 12% Others 2% USA 25% SCRAP IMPORTS INTO INDIA EU-27 47% USA EU-27 South Africa Rest of Africa Middle East Others
SCRAP USAGE V/S CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION 20 MTC GROUP
PROJECTED SCRAP USAGE IN F.Y. 2020-21 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 155000 60000 40000 20000 0 80236 15770 2011-12 Crude Steel Production 2020-21 Scrap Usage 31000 26 MTC GROUP
CHALLENGES Strong USD along with current economic scenario has limited scrap imports and made import expensive than local arising High cost of Capital (Interest rate at 12% v/s 6 % in USA) and discouraging taxation policies limiting capital expenditure High cost of Power and Low Labor Productivity Lack of Domestic Regulations to assist scrap recycling and unfriendly import policies such as PSIC certificates, etc. Lack of transparency and clarity of charges when dealing with shipping lines & various clearing agents Poor port, road & rail infrastructure leading to high clearing & Terminal handling cost, high turn around & evacuation times and higher local freight cost Indian Government has recently imposed Special Additional Duty (SAD) on scrap which may been done to protect iron ore supplier & pushing steel plants to use more iron ore. 28 MTC GROUP
RECOMMENDATIONS Priority Sector Status and Special Subsidies for the Recycling Industry Special Recycling Zones to be setup with organized scrap collection Subsidized Power Tariff for Steel Recycling Plants Lowering of Customs Duty on Scrap Processing equipments and removal of SAD on Scrap Imports Carbon Credits for the Recycling Industry Enacting Regulations like End of Vehicle Life rules, compulsory radiation checks, waste disposal norms at household levels etc. Dedicated freight corridors & better equipped ports to handle containerized and bulk cargos