Nivesh Daily Currency 20 December, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency Pair Close % Change OI % Change Prev OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 67.89 0.16-0.02-0.27 67.9725 67.8575 67.6825 EURINR 70.95-0.06 2.18-1.73 71.0367 70.9833 70.8433 GBPINR 84.50 0.02 0.23-3.82 84.7342 84.5733 84.1683 JPYINR 57.90 0.85-9.54 1.8 58.0842 57.8933 57.6008 Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 103.07-0.08 EURUSD 1.0402-0.12 GBPUSD 1.2399-0.74 JPYUSD 117.12-0.91 * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR 28 December, 2016 Expiry Option Update Closing. Options LTP %Chg %Chg OI %Chg Pr OI OI CE 67.00 0.92 12.2-3.61-1.06 57590 CE 67.50 0.435 20.00-1.64-2.93 261309 CE 68.00 0.13 10.64-2.84 2.99 319551 CE 68.50 0.0375-11.76-0.63 3.41 272663 PE 67.00 0.005-60.00-6.7-2.99 156231 PE 67.50 0.0225-60.87 1.45-12.47 135502 PE 68.00 0.2125-30.33 0.09 6.9 369611 PE 68.50 0.63-14.86-0.64 26.18 149582 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating positive move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( December 19, 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 67.7262 84.5426 70.8416 57.7300 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (November Future) Dollar/rupee ended near two-week high Monday on likely dollar demand from importers for their monthend payment commitments and overseas fund outflows from local shares. Technical, USDINR traded neutral to positive on Monday and settled at 67.9125 compare to previous close of 67.8050. From three consecutive days USDINR consolidation above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement support (67.73) which is creating probability bullishness in near term. On the down side, correction will expect to come below 67.70 and pair may test 67.45 again. Recommendation : LTP Buy above Target Stop loss 67.89 67.95 68.20-68.35 67.80 Important Factor: NIL EURINR ( November Future) Euro traded slightly negative on Monday. Meanwhile, data released Monday showed Germany's IFO Business Climate index rose to 111.0 in December from 110.4 in November, more than the expectations for a smaller increase to 110.6. Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR yet trading below its short term moving average which is indicating for bearishness. But, pair would need to break below 70.80 in order to test 70.65-70.30, else any rise towards 71.00-71.30 likely to attract huge selling activities. Recommendation LTP Sell below Target Stop loss 70.95 70.80 70.65-70.45 70.98 Daily Important Factor : German PPI m/m
GBP ( November Future) The British pound dipped to 84.4125, it s lowest in about a month and last stood at 84.5025. Technical, GBPINR settled almost flat yesterday. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading below the SMA and 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous fall which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 85.35 and sustain trade above only will open the door for 85.60-85.90. Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 84.50 84.55-84.65 84.10-83.90 84.78 Important Factor : CBI Realized Sales JPYINR (November Future) Yen strengthened against the dollar on safe-haven appeal as investors remain concerned over rising tensions between the US and China after China seized US drone in South China Sea. Bank of Japan will conclude its two-day monetary policy for the world's third largest economy on Tuesday. A strong turn from the previous close and a long bullish candle stick formation on the EOD chart is indicating for bullish trend reversal in JPYINR. Today, a break above 58.15 will open to door for 58.70-59.00 levels. Failure of the break out 58.15 only could creating probability for correction towards 57.35-57.00 Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy above 58.15 Stop loss 57.90 Target 58.45-58.75 57.95 Important data: Monetary Policy Statement
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today German business climate rose to 111.0, from 110.4 in the preceding month. Russian Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.4%, from 5.4% in the preceding month. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10% Neutral Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement - - - Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference - - - 12:30pm EUR German PPI m/m 0.10% 0.70% Negative 2:30pm EUR Current Account 24.2B 25.3B Negative 4:30pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 20 26 Negative 7:30pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m - 0.80% - Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e-mail: research@indianivesh.in Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in