Current Market Trends - Lamb and Beef Sector John Richards Swyddog Gwybodaeth y Diwydiant a r Farchnad Industry and Market Information Officer
Sheep Sector www.hccmpw.org.uk
Current market prices p per kg lw 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 Welsh SQQ lamb prices 2011 2012 2013 J F M A M J J A S O N D Prices have followed a more seasonal pattern this year Current price 15% up on 2012 levels
UK slaughter numbers (000 head) UK prime lamb slaughterings 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 lamb crop 2012 lamb crop 2013 lamb crop 136,000 additional lambs slaughtered in May-Sep period Lighter carcase weights at start of 2013 lamb crop
UK sheep numbers Breeding ewes Total number Change England 7.09 million 3.8% Northern Ireland 0.92 million -1.4% Scotland 3.27 million -0.5% Lambs Total number Change England 7.45 million 0.5% Northern Ireland 0.96 million -3.0% Scotland 3.11 million -5.1%
Ewe slaughterings (000 head) 240.0 UK cull ewe slaughterings 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 2012 2013 100.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Defra 14% increase in UK cull ewe numbers to September Rationalising of flocks and cash flow likely to be main causes
Global Situation New Zealand NZ supply lamb crop smaller in 2013 between 1.5m-2m less lambs Biggest decrease likely in frozen shipments not fresh/chilled NZ product pricing higher than last year Globally Up until August, 78% of all UK sheep meat imports from NZ, 10% Australia To date (Jan-Aug), 26% more imports of sheepmeat have come into UK during 2013 compared to 2012, although August down
Export markets Welsh sheepmeat exports valued at 124 million in 2012 France (53%), Belgium/ Italy/ Germany (21%) (000 tonnes) 40 35 30 25 20 15 Estimate Volume and Value of Sheepmeat Exports from Wales, 2006-12 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ( million) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Source: HCC Volume Value
New markets HCC is working towards opening and expanding the following markets for Welsh Lamb: Sweden Denmark Canada Russia China? USA?
Lamb consumption GB lamb consumption has increased markedly over the last 12 months
Conclusions Has been a difficult 18 months for the sector Return to a usual marketing period for 2013 lamb crop has seen a return to more seasonal price pattern Confidence is fragile, need a period of stability Lamb consumption has increased Need to ensure that product quality and consistency meets market requirements Encouraging signs at home and abroad should give optimism
Beef Sector www.hccmpw.org.uk
Current market prices p per kg lw 220 Welsh prime cattle prices 200 180 160 140 2011 2012 2013 J F M A M J J A S O N D Prime cattle prices in 2013 have been above year earlier levels Some easing of prices in last 2 months
UK slaughter numbers (000 head) 200.0 UK prime cattle slaughterings 160.0 120.0 80.0 40.0 0.0 Source: Defra Steers Heifers Young Bulls 2% decrease in UK prime cattle slaughterings to September 5% fall in steers, 0.3% & 3% rise in heifers and young bulls
Calf registrations % change 15 10 5 Female Male Monthly change in GB beef calf registrations, 2013/2012 0-5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep -10-15 -20 Source: BCMS GB beef calf registrations down 5% to September Indicates likely tightening of supply end of next year and into 2015
Beef consumption GB spend on beef increase over last 12 months based on increased prices as volume sales declines
Irish reference price vs UK price p/kg 420 Average Irish and UK Steer (R3) prices 400 380 360 340 320 300 22p 60p J F M A M J J A S O N D UK price Irish Price Irish pricing has led to increased volumes entering UK market Irish price hampering any potential increase in UK price
Conclusions Improved market prices was needed within sector Profitability still remains an issue for producers Likely tightening of supply over the coming 24 month period Current Irish price inhibiting any upward pressure on beef price Consumer purchases have declined on the back of increased retail prices
HCC s market intelligence www.hccmpw.org.uk
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