2-2 Economic Growth Econ 3310 Waaler Curves Measurement of Well-Being Talan İşcan Dalhousie University Fall 2013 Waaler an epidemiologist examined the relation between height, weight, and mortality by age among 1.7 million Norwegian adults who were weighed and measured as part of a national radiological survey between 1963 and 1975. He observed a -shape relation Body Mass Index (weight in kg/height 2 in cm) and mortality risk by age. Why study economic growth? 2-3 Economic development: mission statements 2-4 Definition: Economic growth is the study of... material well-being measured by market value economic transactions? subjective well-being measured by self-reported happiness? biological well-being measured by longevity and morbidity? United Nations Development Programme: help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. www.undp.org World Bank: Help reduce poverty. web.worldbank.org
Economic theory 2-5 Measurable outcomes: biological 2-6 Utility maximization: scarce resources + unlimited wants Longevity: intrinsic value?; reproductive success Quantity of stuff (shirts) I have Morbidity: height?; self-reported health status Quality of shirts I have Average height of Equestrian Plains Indians (mid-19th cen- Hierarchy of wants tury): 172.6 cm Other regarding preferences (preference for equality; sadism) Global demographic transitions 2-7 Neolithic demographic transition 2-8 Neolithic demographic transition: 11,500 to 3500 years Higher fertility: additional two births per woman ago, world population 6 million (7 billion today) stable and abundant food supply with less effort (carbo- Contemporary demographic transition: 250 years ago hydrates provide more energy and easier to preserve); and ongoing, world population 771 million in 1750 less time for breastfeeding; less onerous childcare (CE) Higher mortality: Depend on gross rate of reproduction, GRR,and } {{ } fertility less varied diet (possibly lower in protein); infectious disease environment (infant mortality) life expectancy at birth, e(0) }{{} mortality 0.2.1 percent population growth rate
Demographic change: Europe 1200 1700 2-9 Health transition, c1750... 2-10 Continuity: Steady but not constant growth, punctuated e(0) remained low until mid 18th century, but declined by mortality crises steadily and uniformly thereafter average annual growth rate 1.3/1000 36.3/1000 birthrate 35.0/1000 birth-rate e(x) : most significant for infants and children, but all x s were effected Uniformity: except 1600 50 and after 1750 Perhaps ongoing (despite AIDS, etc.): e(0) = 110? 1600 1850: population in England increased by 4 rest of Europe increased by 2 Why? = Why do people die? Epidemiological transition 2-11 Explanations for health transition 2-12 Four phases in Northwestern Europe Improved nutrition (McKeown hypothesis) 1. 1650s: mortality crises (bubonic plague, typhus) Reduction in epidemiological factors 2. 19th century: communicable diseases of childhood and youth (smallpox, scarlet fever, typhoid fever, diphtheria) 3. 1850s: infant mortality (respiratory diseases like tuberculosis, bronchitis) 4. 20th century: adulthood (cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases; congestive hearth failure) Improvements in public health Improvements in medicine Rising income and wealth Changes in behaviour Better education
Mechanical explanations 2-13 Fertility rate 2-14 Nutrition: reduces individual susceptibility to diseases; increases productivity; Epidemiology: for poorly understood biological reasons diseases became less virulent; Public health: reduces risks of transmission and contagion; preventive at societal level Income and wealth: better health becomes affordable Crude birth rate (births per 1000) and margins of adjustment Percent female population ages 15 45; Age of marriage (and co-habitation); Percent married female population; Number of births per married woman Contemporary fertility transition 2-15 Explanations 2-16 Guinnane (2011): Western Europe + N. America 1800... Main finding: heterogeneity across regions at a point in time but similar trends in the long run Example: 1871 1911 England and Wales Population increase 60% Female population 15 44 increase 77% Mean age at marriage for men increase 1.2 years Unmarried female population 25 29 increase 20% 1. Exogenous decline in infant + child mortality; 2. Cheaper and better contraception; 3. Direct cost of childbearing (rural to urban migration); 4. Indirect cost of childbearing (factory work for woman) 5. Public provision of old-age security
Image credits and further reading 2-17 Waaler, Hans. 1984. Height, weight, and mortality: the Norwegian experience. Acta Medica Scan. 679, Fig. 15. Riley, James. 2001. Rising Life Expectancy: A Global History. Livi-Bacci, Massimo. 1990. Population and Nutrition: An Essay on European Demographic History. Bocquet-Appel, Jean-Pierre. 2011. When the world s population took off: The springboard of the Neolithic Demographic Transition. Science 333. doi: 10.1126/science.1208880.