Smart & Connected Homes: Key Trends and Opportunities John Raspin Partner, Energy & Environment April 2016
Energy & Environment Focus Areas for Thought Leadership Our Homes & Buildings Group
Energy & Environment Top 10 Mega Trends Defining the Future Internet of Things Big Data Fuels for the Future Smart Cities Connectivity & Integration Energy Supply & Costs Capacity Optimisation Carbon Reduction Environment Global Energy Demand Sustainability Efficiency & Intelligence Market Globalisation Water Stress Energy Efficiency New Business Models Source: Frost & Sullivan
Homes & Buildings Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch for to 2025 Energy Efficiency & SMART Buildings IoT & Cloud Control LED Lighting Revolution Fire & Incident Prevention Top 10 Markets of the Future Small Scale Distributed Generation Energy Harvesting DC Power Distribution Solar PV Home Energy Storage Connected Living Source: Frost & Sullivan
Homes & Buildings Focus Areas and Expertise built around Transformational Trends Frost & Sullivan's expertise in Homes & Buildings research and consulting includes work in the following dynamic areas: Future of Lighting Impact of the LED lighting revolution, new business models, smart lighting, technology integration and future competition. Facilities Management Service integration, energy management, business productivity, smart technology and contract internationalisation. IoT & Cloud Solutions IoT enabled solutions for BAS, HEMS & BEMS, software embedded controllers, remote monitoring and internet of buildings. Connected Living Smart and connected homes, home automation, business models, functional evolution, homes of the future. Smart Buildings ESCO 2.0 Digitally connected intelligent buildings, data analytics, building and energy efficiency, and smart city integration. Next generation of energy management services, performance contracting, XaaS models, convergence of competition. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart and Connected Homes Features A smart and connected home is a residential solution using advanced technologies that offers a variety of connected living services ranging from entertainment to education, so as to create a truly efficient and sustainable home. Smart and Connected Homes: Features, Global, 2010 2020 Home Automation: Remote monitoring and centralised control of lighting, window blinds, and home appliances Virtual Education: Virtual tutoring through technology-enhanced Web-based services and high-speed Internet Home Energy Management: Automatic synchronisation of energy consumption data for minimised future energy use (on the basis of usage patterns and exterior conditions) Safety and Security: Remote surveillance of entire home and its occupants through smart phones and tablets Home Entertainment: Personalised entertainment through open platforms from various broadcasters and Internet providers Note: Some solution providers include HVAC, home entertainment, and safety and security as part of their comprehensive home automation solutions. Health and Wellness: Continuous monitoring and evaluation of the general fitness and well-being of occupants Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart Homes. Key Findings Key Findings 1 2 3 4 5 6 The level of activity and investment being made by major corporations Google, Samsung, Apple, Amazon etc. suggests that the industry is reaffirming its commitment to the smart home space nobody wants to be left behind when consumers eventually become engaged. Amazon in particular has been closing the gap on the more acknowledged players Google and Apple and has the potential to be a major force in smart homes. As of the end of 2015, market penetration rates for smart home appliances and smart hubs remain low; customer awareness and understanding of the product offering is low. However this could change through greater customer education, but mainly through smart hubs being sold through Trojan horses such as televisions and routers. Differing strategies suggest no one certain route to success. However should anyway be successful, the others can switch quickly. Anyone who can engage on a mass market level will be successful. Integration of smart hubs within televisions is one example where this could happen. Control over the smart hub is vital to the development of future business. The hub manufacturer may have access to large quantities of data within the home domain, providing significant future revenue potential. Technology providers are only one of the groups seeking to penetrate this market, there are others such as telecoms and utilities that are keen to play a significant role in the smart home. Security is an important issue, but all providers have yet to properly address this area. For Samsung at the moment, this is an area of potential weakness, as its legacy product business means security is weaker.
360 Degree Perspectives on Smart & Connected Homes 1 2 3 4 5 Home energy management, home automation, home entertainment, and safety and security are emerging as top priorities for smart and connected home solution providers. Health and wellness and virtual education will be in the second wave of growth as they are still immature commercial offerings; however, they will rise in importance in the next 5 years. Internet of Everything (IoE) will become the next intelligent platform connecting the physical and virtual worlds to address urban living challenges. Cross-industrial partnerships between market participants are vital in creating new business models for service offerings. High and medium income economies in India, China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, and some Middle-Eastern countries are driving global growth. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Number of Devices Smart Home Device Ownership in Developed Countries Average household to have 18 smart devices in 2016 as the march towards IoT in the home continues 15 10 5 0 12 Connected Devices Number of Devices, 2016 5 Smart and Connected Appliances 0 Connected Car 1 Wearables and ehealth devices Ownership of multiple smart phones and tablets in the home now a relatively standard practice across Europe and North America. Highest future growth forecast for wearables and ehealth devices, although smart meters will also become a standard feature in most European homes within 5 years. Devices 2016 Smart Phone 4 Laptops 2 Tablets 2 Smart TV 1 Connected set-top box 1 ereaders 2 Printer 1 Scanner 1 Connected stereo systems 2 Energy monitoring device 1 Wearables and ehealth devices 1 Connected car - Home Automation Sensors - Smart Thermostat - Smart Meter - Connected Light Bulbs - Smart Plugs - Source: OECD, Frost & Sullivan
Timeline of Market Developments 2014 and 2015 saw a large number of acquisitions and partnerships, as players jockey for position in the market Feb 2014: Google acquires 100% of Nest labs Inc for $3.2 billion. Aug 2014: Samsung acquires SmartThings for around US$200 million. Nov 2014: Amazon launches Amazon Echo. Jan 2015: Google partners with Insteon to boost the range of compatible products Nest can connect with and enable Nest to be controlled through an Insteon hub. Oct 2015: Legrand announces it will partner with Google Nest and use its weave protocol for its products Jan 2016: Samsung announces SmartThings compatibility with Smart TVs. 2014 2015 2016 Jul 2014: Open Interconnect Consortium was formed. June 14 and Oct 14: Google Nest acquires Dropcam (cameras) and Revolv (smart hub hardware). Nov 2015: Intel launches a new IoTplatform, Intel Quark and the Tiny House to demonstrate its smart offering Jan 2016: SmartThings announces a formal partnership with BMW Jun 2014: Microsoft partners with Insteon (leading home automation protocol player).
Complexity of the Vendor Ecosystem - The Example of Home Energy Management
What does a smart home solution look like? Examples of Service Providers and Business Models Philips Hue (Launched) Assimilator Approach QIVICON (Launched) Aggregator Approach Microsoft HomeOS (Planned) Integrator Approach
Smart and Connected Markets Smart Homes Smart Buildings Smart Cities IoT Key Participants in Smart and Connected Markets - Different Approaches to Integration Key Participants in Smart and Connected Solutions, Global, 2016 Deutsche Telekom Intel Microsoft IBM Cisco? Philips Hue HCL Samsung Schneider Siemens Honeywell Apple Google ABB Bosch Dell Qualcomm AT&T Independent Note: Key participants list is not exhaustive IoT Value proposition Integrated Source: Frost & Sullivan
Connected Living Who will own customer relationships? Connected Living Market: Opportunities in the Connected Living Space in the Future, Global, 2016 2020 Solution Provider Impact Opportunities in Connected Living in the Future Telecom Operators Solutions such as shared data plans, split billing, and reprogrammable SIMs could lead to significantly more attractive pricing models as data sales will be restricted. Partnering with OEMs and service providers will be key. Mobile Network Operators Utilities Software Providers Original Equipment Manufacturers Application Developers Key participants are amongst the most influential in integration of connected products and services as the mobile and tablet is the central consumer use platform. Key participant in home energy management through remote control of devices and provision of data on energy consumption; will enable better understanding of billing advantage through customer connections but low ability to diversify Key ability to commercialize connected applications and services, and make solutions more scalable and upgradable easily Track record in successful partnerships with service providers and ability to offer converged products and smart innovations A decoupling of apps from phones may eventually become reality as more content and services are shifted to being hosted on the cloud rather than on native apps. Stable Increasing Source: Frost & Sullivan
Global Participants in the Convergence of Competition Apple and Microsoft are likely to achieve the greatest revenue from service commercialization. Connected Work Connected Home Comcast Citrix Intel Alcatel Lucent HP Deutsche Telekom British Gas AT&T Polycom Unisys Tandberg Dell Google Nest Telstra Samsung IBM Verizon Korea Telecom EON RWE LG Phillips Vodafone T Mobile Bosch Apple Microsoft Cisco Orange Google Siemens MIELE NTT DoCoMo ENEL GE Schneider Electric Visa GM Connected City Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market participants. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Revenue ($ Million) Units per Year Connected Energy Management Growth Example By 2020, there will be 30 million Smart Thermostats in European Homes; The UK and Germany will lead the EU Market 3,000 14,000 2,500 2,000 12,000 10,000 New Products 1,500 8,000 6,000 1,000 500 4,000 2,000 Utility Business Models 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenue 29 49 86 153 274 493 884 1,546 2,571 0 Units 110 191 339 610 1,122 2,090 3,877 7,126 12,853 Connected Living Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2015. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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