ICT Practice. IDA Lighthouse Series : Frost and Sullivan APAC Telecom Research Team

Transcription

1 ICT Practice IDA Lighthouse Series : Frost and Sullivan APAC Telecom Research Team 1

2 Evolution of networks Networks will continue to evolve rapidly to spawn new apps and consumer behaviour Speeds FTTH WDM-PON Convergence Networks : IP Migration Services : Digitization Devices : Multiple functionality 10 Mbps ADSL 2+ LTE Fiber is the copper of 21 st century Still early days of the fiber revolution HSPA ADSL UMTS Traffic continues to rise By 2013, Internet traffic will be 4 times of 2009 Time 2

3 Evolution of networks We are reaching wave 2 of network rollouts in developed countries leading to new service stimulation Build an integrated experience Sweat the network Experience Orchestrator Get the video equation right Mega bundle Increased Quadruple play and convergence Strategic Intent Services Start something Broadband ++ Characterized by limited TV channels and mostly VOD Full triple play Full fledged video equal to or better than pay TV Some form of interactive services Higher bandwidth services like HDTV, multiple picture in picture Multiple concurrent streams Interactive services Mix of internet based and traditional video Multi device multi network integration Contextual advertising Ecosystem partnerships Video may be through partnerships or DTT Digital Home Television Commerce Network Largely 4-5 Mbps Mbps > 20 Mbps 3

4 Top Broadband Trends There are strong factors driving bandwidth usage 1 Rise of video is driving network investments 4 Open networks spur greater innovation 2 Evolution of consumer behaviour : If its on the internet I want it on my TV 5 Changing needs of, personalization and corporates control 3 Not just triple play but tera-play between multiple devices and connected services 6 Gradual acceptance of Cloud Computing and Infrastructure as a service 4

5 2. Consumer behaviour Consumers are demanding greater control over their user experience Changing Consumption Patterns More opportunity windows On the move On the fly On the pause Multi-task Greater control over experience Search Personalize Play Source Popularize Time-shifted viewing Disaggregated Long tail and UGC Changing nature of content Rapid adoption of digital culture Change in usage patterns 5

6 3.From Triple play to Tera play Therewillbealotmoredevicesthatwillbe connected totheinternetseamlessly in future leading to further bandwidth needs The Smartphone will provide an external remote control through web access Cameras that directly upload to social networking sites Amazon s Kindle 2 jointly promoted by Sprint, estimated to generate $ 1bn in revenues 6

7 4. Open Innovation Supply side initiatives and creating developer communities will promote innovation in apps and services Network as an enabler More RSPs Even in a competitive environment NTT works with 16 ISPs to gain the maximum by catering to different segments The other ISPs generate close to 50% of its revenues More Applications The iphone App Store example 65,000 apps within 15 months of launch Over 1 billion downloads 7

8 5. Changing needs of enterprises Workforce needs a new set of productivity tools Colloborative Workforces Consumerization of corporate IT Greater Productivity on routine tasks Real-time customer touchpoints and integration 8

9 6. SaaS and Cloud computing Cloud computing models have moved beyond the hype phase Shift from capex to opex models for business Every financial crisis accelerates a movement to opex models like outsourcing in the 2000s SaaS and cloud computing offer an opportunity for cost transformation Supply side maturity Salesforce.com is a proven model with a platform as a services All leading hardware and software companies from Google to Microsoft to IBM have a SaaS strategy Strong VC investments into startups that simplify cloud computing Push by local players like SingTel Increase in demand side readiness to adopt Even the White House wants to evaluate it The White House wants to move into the cloud in put in place new security measures which will allow dynamic application use and information-sharing to be implemented in a secure fashion. Expected savings in the out years, as more agencies reduce their costs of hosting system in their own data centers, should be many times the original investment 9

10 FTTH adoption globally FTTH has achieved close to 30% adoption of Homes passed and consumers are very satisfied with the service FTTH deployment vs ARPU, 2008 Access ARPU ($) Norway Sweden Japan Many operators are finding fibre more reliable than copper when they need to upgrade beyond ADSL 2.0 However operators like BT and KT are deploying fibre to the cabinet (FTTC) that can provide speeds upto 60Mbpstothehome USA South Korea Hong Kong Japan is the leader in terms of fiber deployment, Hong Kong already boasts of a 1Gbps offering Sweden and Norway have successfully implemented some form of public proviate partnership 5-0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% FTTH subscribers / total broadband subscribers (%) ARPU is a function of network economics 10

11 US Case Study : FTTH adoption FTTH has achieved close to 30% adoption of Homes passed and consumers are very satisfied with the service US FTTH Subscribers in mn FTTH Home pass FTTH Connection FTTH Video Results of consumer survey 74% 70% 64% 55% 50% 51% Satisfied with Internet Service Satisfied with their HDTV service FTTH Cable DSL/Satellite Source : Frost and Sullivan, FTTH Council, consumer survey based on 1200 respondents in USA 11

12 US Case Study : Verizon s differentiation Verizon has been differentiating its TV experience significantly compared to the incumbents Subscribers FiOS TV (K ) Strong Differentiation and Value Proposition TV Features FiOS TV Time Warner Channels HD Up to 100 channels Up to 100 channels Digital Channels Up to 295 channels 74 channels 0.0 Audio Channels 47 channels 49 channels Radio Channels 48 channels N/D DVR recording time 80 hrs (normal) 80 hrs (normal) Sound 5.1 Dolby Yes Only movies HD Video on Demand ~14000 titles ~10000 titles DVR Programmed by Internet No, % of subscribers have the premium plan 60% have HD and/or DVR 37.3% are on films and sports packages Monthly Churn less is than 1.5% As of March 09, had,217k FiOS TV subscribers and 8,925K broadband subscribers IPTV/Broadband ratio is 25% It has attained a penetration rate of 23% for Fios TV in areas where service is offered 12

13 US Case Study : Verizon s bet on open innovation Verizon aims to continue its innovation path through its app store From the beginning we said we wanted Fios to be a platform for innovation," Verizon CIO Shaygan Kheradpir Developers to keep 70% of the revenues from these apps, 30% goes to Verizon First two applications are social networking applications, Twitter and Facebook on TV Strong response from consumers to tweeting during Oscar Awards Enhanced TV viewing 13

14 Learning from other operators/countries: PCCW PCCWafteritssuccessinIPTVisplanningasetofinteractiveservices 14

15 Implications for RSPs Monetization will be key : Business models would be two-sided or freemium Develop strong consumer insights or enabling consumer co-creation of services ( Gen Y) Segmentation : Value seekers versus sophistication seekers Encourage sampling of services ; thinking platforms but live in constant betas 15