Weekly Live Cattle Contract Monthly Live Cattle Contract Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract 1
Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market will trend down: Domestic demand was strong. International demand and trade are weak. Competing meats. Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years: Herd building. Cheaper feed will be mismanaged. USDA Quarterly Cattle Price Forecasts Date Fed Cattle 7 8# Feeder 5 6# Calf 215: VI $148 15 $19 193 $228 232 216: I $149 152 $189 193 $234 239 216: II $149 153 $19 195 $237 243 216: III $143 148 $186 192 $233 242 216: VI $144 15 $181 188 $226 236 217: I $143 15 $179 187 $228 239 217: II $143 151 $18 189 $23 241 217: III $138 147 $177 187 $225 237 217: VI $139 149 $173 186 $219 232 11.5 11.3 11.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly Avg. 9/13 214 215 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly Avg. 9/13 214 215 C-N-1 9/23/15 C-N-8 9/23/15 2
CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING LESS THAN 7 POUNDS 1, Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.9.8.7.6.5.4 Avg. 9/13 214 215 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 7 POUNDS 1, Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.9.8.7.6 Avg. 9/13 214 215 C-N-8A 9/23/15 C-N-8B 9/23/15 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly 6.5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 9 DAYS US Total, Monthly 2. 6 1.9 1.8 1.7 5.5 5 1.6 4.5 1.5 Avg. 9/13 214 215 4 Avg. 9/13 214 215 C-M-11 9/23/15, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-11 9/23/15 3
5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 12 DAYS US Total, Monthly Thou. Head 725 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 4.5 675 625 4 575 3.5 525 3 475 425 2.5 Avg. 9/13 214 215 375, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 9/23/15 & USDA NASS C-S-8 1/16/15 Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 37 35 STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 18 33 31 16 29 1 27 25 12 23 21 19 & USDA NASS C-S-13 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-17 1/16/15 4
Pounds 93 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds 137 LIVE WEIGHT STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly 91 89 135 133 131 87 129 85 83 127 125 123 81 121 & USDA NASS C-S-18 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-26 1/16/15 Thou. Head 2 CALF SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 15 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 18 1 16 13 14 12 12 11 1 8 9 6 8 4 7 & USDA NASS C-S-32 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-14 1/16/15 5
Thou. Head 9 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 8 7 7 6 5 65 6 55 5 45 3 & USDA NASS C-S-34 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-35 1/16/15 2 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Monthly 225 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Monthly 23 215 2 2 19 25 195 185 18 175 17 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 165 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV M-S-2 9/25/15, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-5 9/25/15 6
51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 BEEF IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-9 9/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-1 9/22/15 8 75 7 65 6 55 CHICKEN IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 6 55 5 45 35 3 25 15 TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-5 9/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-4 9/22/15 7
1 TOTAL CHEESE IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month 65 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly 115 6 1 55 15 5 45 95 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS 9/22/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 1/15/15 4 RETAIL PORK PRICE Monthly 16 RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE Whole Fresh, Monthly 42 155 15 38 145 36 1 3 135 32 13 3 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 125 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-5 1/15/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-6 1/15/15 8
65 6 55 5 45 35 3 25 15 5 RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly Retail Pork Price Retail Chicken Price, Whole Fresh Retail Beef Price $ Per lbs 2 22 18 16 1 12 8 6 LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 1/15/15 & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-2 1/15/15 $ Per lbs 125 1 115 1 15 95 9 85 CUTOUT TO RETAIL BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ Per Cwt 175 15 125 75 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: September 215 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-4 1/15/15 & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 1/15/15 9
$ Per Steer 3 AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 75 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: September 215 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 $ Per Cwt. 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 15 95 85 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 1/15/15 $ Per Cwt. 26 2 22 18 16 1 12 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 7 8 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5 6 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 1
$ Per Cwt. 37 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 28 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 6 9 Lbs., Carcass, Weekly 32 26 2 27 22 22 17 18 16 12 1, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A C-P-62 $ Per Cwt. 18. STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 16 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value 6 9 Lbs., Weekly 17. 14 16. 12 15. 1 14. 8 13. 6 12. 4 11. 2 1. C-P-39, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-68 11
$ Per Cwt. 145 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 45 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 9% Lean, Weekly 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly C-P-35 M-P-21 15 WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless x1, Weekly 35 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly 95 325 85 75 65 55 3 275 25 225 45 175 35 15 12
WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES 18 33 Pounds, Weekly 325 32 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 9% Lean, Weekly 3 275 25 3 28 26 2 225 175 22 18 16 15 1 M-P-22 M-P-24 17 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 5% Lean, Weekly 16 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, 23 27 Pounds, Weekly 15 1 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 M-P-25 M-P-27 13
WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 199= 18 16 8 96 91 91 86 86 82 79 75 75 77 8 81 85 88 83 85 85 8 77 75 77 79 81 86 1 12 8 6 2 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 21 212 214 M-P-28 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 199= Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 199= 8 99 91 89 86 84 75 73 75 77 82 82 83 85 92 87 87 83 83 78 74 75 76 78 79 8 94 93 94 88 87 85 81 76 74 76 79 8 85 87 87 88 89 83 82 75 78 78 83 83 6 6 2 2 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 21 212 214 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 21 212 214 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 14
Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 199= Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Second Quarter, Using CPI 199= 8 95 94 86 87 83 86 91 93 87 8 75 77 8 83 83 85 85 82 81 76 74 77 8 8 8 8 96 9 83 84 8 8 75 77 77 79 86 91 9 91 83 84 84 8 73 76 74 75 78 8 84 6 6 2 2 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 21 212 214 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 21 212 214 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Thou. Head 15 SLAUGHTER STEERS & HEIFERS IMPORTS FROM CANADA Weekly MT 6 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly 5 1 4 3 5 2 1 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. & USDA APHIS 1/16/15 & USDA APHIS 1/16/15 15
MT 2 15 1 5 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Thou. Head 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 US CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO Monthly Data Source: USDA FAS 1/16/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-3 1/7/15 Thou. Head 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 US CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA Monthly 375 35 325 3 275 25 225 175 15 125 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-4 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-15 1/7/15 16
27 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly 25 15 23 21 5 19 17 5 15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-16 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-31 1/7/15 7 US BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly 8 US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly 65 7 6 6 55 5 5 45 3 2 35 1 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-26 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-37 1/7/15 17
9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 US BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 Japan Canada Mexico South Korea Bil. $ 1 8 6 4 2 US BEEF INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 Variety Meats Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Tallow & Greases I-N-7 2/25/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-35 1/7/15 Bil. $ 1 US BEEF INDUSTRY IMPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ 7 US BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual 8 6 4 2 2 Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 Variety Meats Tallow & Greases 3 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 Live Cattle Beef & Veal Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-71 2/25/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-72 2/25/15 18
Bil. $ 6 4 2 2 US PORK INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual 1989 1992 1995 1998 1 4 7 21 213 Live Hogs Pork & Sausages Other Items Total 48 46 44 42 38 JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-75 2/25/15 36 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 215 218 C-N-2A 7/28/15 42 41 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual 215 = 34.3 Million Head +1.2 Percent 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 215 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S. 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 215 C-N-18B 7/28/15 C-N-3 7/28/15 19
55 JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S. 7. HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S. 5 6.5 45 6. +4.1 % 5.5 35 5. 3 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 4.5 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 215 C-N-32 7/28/15 C-N-38 7/28/15 6. HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S. 135 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January 1 125 5.5 115 5. 4.5 +6.5 % 15 95 85 75 4. 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 65 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1938 49 1949 58 1958 67 1967 79 1979 9 199 4 4 14 214 15 C-N-37 7/28/15 C-N- 7/28/15 2
3 2 1 1 2 3 4 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January 1 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 3 6 9 212 215 $ Per Cwt 275 25 225 175 15 125 75 5 AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 211 213 215 217 5 6lb Steer Calves 7 8lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers, Analysis by LMIC C-N-48 7/28/15, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC C-P-6 9/24/15 $ Per Cow 5 3 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Cattle Outlook Expansion this year and next and next. Reasonable feed costs. Worst case scenario softening demand & strong competing meat production hard fall. Best case scenario last year was it not again need to see increased trade. 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 211 213 215 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC C-P-66 9/24/15 21