AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS. Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Livestock Futures and Options

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1 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Livestock Futures and Options

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO THE GUIDE 4 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE LIVESTOCK FUTURES MARKET 5 CHAPTER 2: FINANCIAL INTEGRITY OF THE LIVESTOCK FUTURES MARKET 12 CHAPTER 3: LIVESTOCK CASH MARKET BASIS AND GENERAL HEDGE THEORY 14 CHAPTER 4: SHORT FUTURES HEDGE 20 CHAPTER 5: LONG FUTURES HEDGE 25 CHAPTER 6: OVERVIEW OF THE LIVESTOCK OPTIONS MARKET 30 CHAPTER 7: OPTION STRATEGIES FOR LIVESTOCK BUYERS 38 CHAPTER 8: OPTION STRATEGIES FOR LIVESTOCK SELLERS 44 CHAPTER 9: KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL LIVESTOCK RISK MANAGEMENT 50 CHAPTER 10: ADDITIONAL RISKS OF THE LIVESTOCK HEDGER 53 SUMMARY APPENDIX: Getting Started, Additional Resources and Quiz Answer Key 2

3 In a world of increasing volatility, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk across all major asset classes agricultural commodities, interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy and metals, as well as alternative investments such as weather and real estate. Built on the heritage of CME, CBOT, KCBT and NYMEX, CME Group is the world s largest and most diverse derivatives exchange encompassing the widest range of benchmark products available, providing the tools customers need to meet business objectives and achieve financial goals. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together on the CME Globex electronic trading platform. CME Group also operates CME Clearing, one of the world s leading central counterparty clearing providers, which offers clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded contracts and over-the-counter derivatives transactions. These products and services ensure that businesses everywhere can substantially mitigate counterparty credit risk. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS MORE AGRICULTURAL FUTURES AND OPTIONS. GREATER OPPORTUNITY. CME Group offers the widest range of agricultural derivatives of any exchange, with trading available on a variety of grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy, lumber and other products. Representing the staples of everyday life, these products offer liquidity, transparent pricing and extraordinary opportunities in a regulated centralized marketplace with equal access for all participants. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 3

4 INTRODUCTION TO THE GUIDE The agricultural commodity markets have experienced increased volatility in recent years. As part of this market trend, livestock buyers and sellers are facing an everincreasing level of price risk. Doing nothing to manage price risk is tantamount to speculating in the physical (or cash ) markets, which can prove unhealthy to the bottom line of a livestock producer or commercial firm. CME Group livestock futures and options provide livestock buyers and sellers with valuable tools to manage price risk and have more control over their bottom line. This guide is designed to provide a detailed overview of using futures and options for risk management in the livestock markets. The early chapters will establish a foundation that the latter chapters will build on. For someone new to livestock price risk management, it may help to move sequentially through the chapters to get a basic understanding of the core concepts and fundamentals. Those with some experience may wish to proceed to the chapters with topics on which they may need a refresher, or perhaps would like a different perspective. Each chapter ends with a brief quiz which allows readers to test their grasp of the material. Regardless of how the guide is used, the objective is to enhance the hedger s knowledge of using livestock futures and options to manage market risk. Livestock Monthly Price Volatility 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Lean Hogs Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Source: CME Group 4

5 CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW OF THE LIVESTOCK FUTURES MARKET What is a Livestock Futures Contract? A Livestock futures contract is a legally binding agreement for a buyer to accept delivery and a seller to make delivery of: a standardized quantity and quality of a specified livestock product (live cattle, feeder cattle or lean hogs), during a standardized time period, to a standardized delivery point, for a price negotiated at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), on the CME Globex electronic trading platform. CME. The CME simply provides the marketplace, futures products, technology, rules and regulations for the buyers and sellers to come together. Although every futures contract involves a buyer (making bids) and a seller (making offers), neither party knows who is on the other side of the transaction. The buy or sell obligation is with the marketplace and not with an individual participant. A common misconception is that a speculator is always on the other side of a hedger s position, which is not accurate. A transaction could involve two hedgers, two speculators, or a hedger and a speculator. Important Concepts of Livestock Futures A futures contract is not a written document. Hedgers will get regular statements regarding their futures position from their brokers, but they will never receive a written contract. However, a futures contract is still a legally binding agreement that is just as enforceable as a written contract, to the full extent of the law. Price is the only negotiable element of a futures contract. Futures contract prices are determined through the interaction between the buyer and the seller, representing demand and supply, respectively. The prices are not set by the Futures Terminology The futures industry uses some terms that are very unique to this market, and some that are common to other markets. A few of the more important terms are described below; related terms are listed together for comparison and better understanding. The cash market is also known as the physical or underlying market. These are specific market locations where the exchange of a physical product for payment takes place. As such, there are many cash markets located throughout the world. Hedgers may even have several cash markets near their location. Cash market prices may be different based on where they are located. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 5

6 A futures market is a centralized market place that is often described as a benchmark market. Note that a futures market price is the same for buyers and sellers, regardless of the type of trader they are or where they are located. A futures market price is determined through the interaction of the buyers (demand) and the sellers (supply). A bid is an expression to buy and represents the demand for a product. Although a buying hedger would like to buy at the bid, in reality, they will usually buy at the offer, i.e., where someone is willing to sell. An offer is an expression to sell and represents the supply of a product. Although a selling hedger would like to sell at the offer, in reality, they will usually sell at the bid, i.e., where someone is willing to buy. A tight bid/offer spread occurs when the bids and offers are close together, and is a reflection of the market s efficiency and liquidity. Market efficiency and liquidity are important to a hedger when they are initiating and closing out their futures market positions. A long futures position is an initial buy position that represents an obligation to accept delivery of the standardized commodity. A short futures position is an initial sell position that represents an obligation to make delivery of the standardized commodity. To offset or close-out an existing futures position is to simply take the opposite position in the same futures contract and delivery month. If initially long, offset by selling back the identical contract If initially short, offset by buying back the identical contract Bear or bearish reflects lower or declining market prices and are directional terms often used to describe a trader, market movement, trend, strategy or opinion. A bearish strategy provides opportunity if the market moves lower. Bull or bullish reflects higher or increasing prices and are also directional terms often used to describe a trader, market movement, trend, strategy or opinion. A bullish strategy provides opportunity if the market moves higher. Volume is the number of futures contracts that are traded in a given time period. Although volume is quoted for different time periods, the most common is daily volume. Open Interest is the number of contracts that have traded, but have not been closed out either through offset or delivery. Many market participants view open interest as a measure of the contract s liquidity or pricing efficiency. A Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) is another term for a commodity broker. The only way to trade futures or options is through a broker or FCM. Livestock Contract Specifications A futures contract is designed with specifications to match cash market commodities and industry standards. The CME constantly monitors industry standards and cash market practices. If there are significant changes, the Exchange will consult with market participants to determine if modifications to the futures contract specifications are necessary. The specifications help to ensure that there is a two-way relationship between the benchmark livestock futures market and the numerous livestock cash markets. The price that is discovered in a futures market comes from the interaction between the supply (sellers offers) and demand (buyers bids). Many of these bids and offers come from cash market participants. In turn, the futures contract price is then used by cash market participants to transact in the spot (current) market or for cash forward type contracts. Note that many cash market contracts are based on or referenced to the futures market price. 6

7 Physical Delivery versus Cash Settlement Although many futures contracts are traded, very few will ever result in actual delivery of the physical commodity. The great majority of futures contracts are closed out, or offset prior to delivery by taking an opposite position in the same contract and delivery month. In other words, if someone initially buys a futures contract for a specific product and delivery month, and later sells a futures contract for the same product and delivery month, their position and market obligation is closed out. Conversely, if someone initially sells a futures contract and later buys back the same contract, the market obligation is closed out. There are two types of settlement for futures contracts: physical delivery and cash-settlement. The Live Cattle futures contract requires physical delivery settlement in which live cattle are delivered. The CME Rulebook dictates the specific standards in terms of the quantity and quality (USDA Grades) of cattle that can be delivered. The seller of the Live Cattle futures contract makes the final decision regarding the actual quality and quantity that will ultimately be delivered, but it must be within the standards authorized by the Exchange. Any variations to the standardized quantity or quality may be subject to premiums or discounts to the futures price. The specific details of the physical delivery requirements specified in the CME Rulebook can be found at cmegroup.com/rulebook. The Feeder Cattle and Lean Hog futures contracts are cash (or financially ) settled contracts. All outstanding contracts that remain open after the last trading day will be automatically closed out at a price set equal to the CME Feeder Cattle Index or the CME Lean Hog Index on the last trading day. This final cash settlement cancels the obligation of the buyer and the seller. The specific details of the cash-settlement process are also specified in the CME Rulebook at cmegroup.com/rulebook. The CME s Live Cattle futures contract requires delivery of live cattle during the contract month for all market participants who still have an open long position (obligations to accept physical delivery) or short position (obligation to make physical delivery) based on the latest Exchange rules and regulations. The primary purpose of a futures contract is price risk management and not delivery of the actual or physical commodity on the futures contract. As such, it is usually more feasible in economic terms to deliver or accept delivery in a local cash market. Physical delivery on a Live Cattle futures contract is normally less than 1% of the total futures volume. Then, why is there a physical delivery requirement on a futures contract? It is the possibility of physical delivery that causes the cash and the futures markets to converge at contract expiration. It also contributes to the necessary and vital market economic function known as price correlation, which keeps the cash and futures markets prices moving in the same direction throughout the life of the futures contract. As previously mentioned, the CME s Feeder Cattle and Lean Hog futures contracts have a cash settlement requirement. Although it is a different type of delivery system than Live Cattle, the objectives are the same: cash/futures convergence and correlation. In the cash-settlement procedures, all long contracts still open after the last trading day are automatically offset against all remaining open short contracts. They are settled to a price equal to the CME Feeder Cattle Index or to the CME Lean Hog Index on that day (see insert). FEEDER CATTLE AND LEAN HOG INDEXES The CME Feeder Cattle Index and the CME Lean Hog Index are calculated by CME Group staff using United States Department of Agricultural (USDA) data. The data and the formula used to calculate the final cash settlement price are made available to the public and can be found at cmegroup.com/feedercattle and cmegroup.com/leanhogs, respectively. Additional details on the cash-settlement process for Lean Hogs and Feeder Cattle futures can be found in the CME Rulebook located at cmegroup.com/rulebook. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 7

8 The following table indicates the key features of the CME Livestock futures contracts. This will facilitate understanding of the basics of each contract, allowing readers to follow the examples used in this Hedging Guide. Highlights of CME Livestock Futures Contracts CME LIVE CATTLE CME FEEDER CATTLE CME LEAN HOGS Contract Size 40,000 Pounds (lb.) = 400 hundredweight (cwt) 50,000 Pounds (lb.) = 500 cwt 40,000 Pounds (lb.) = 400 cwt Price Unit Cents per pound or Dollars and Cents per cwt Cents per pound or Dollars and Cents per cwt Cents per pound or Dollars and Cents per cwt Tick (minimum price change) $ per pound = $0.025 per cwt = $10/contract $ per pound = $0.025 per cwt = $12.50/contract $ per pound = $0.025 per cwt = $10/contract Daily Price Limits $0.03 above or below the previous day s settlement price $0.03 above or below the previous day s settlement price $0.03 above or below the previous day s settlement price Delivery Type Physical Delivery Cash (financial) Cash (financial) Contract Months Feb(G), Apr (J), Jun(M), Aug(Q), Oct(V), Dec (Z) Jan (F), Mar(H), Apr(J), May(K), Aug(Q), Sep(U), Oct(V), Nov(X) Feb(G), Apr(J), May(K), Jun(M), Jul(N), Aug(Q), Oct(V), Dec(Z) Ticker Symbol CME Globex LE GF HE Trading Hours CME Globex Monday: 9:05 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Central Time Tuesday Thursday: 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Central Time Friday: 8:00 a.m. to 1:55 p.m. Central Time For additional livestock futures contract specifications visit cmegroup.com/agriculture. 8

9 Participants All futures markets participants can be classified in one of two ways, depending on their objectives of either managing price risk, or assuming price risk. Platforms CME Globex is the premier global electronic platform for trading livestock futures and options as well as other products at CME Group exchanges. A hedger is an individual or firm that uses the futures market to manage or reduce the price risk associated with their cash market position. A livestock hedger eventually buys or sells the physical livestock product or by-product in the cash market. Hedgers will choose the futures contract that matches their underlying physical market commodity. Sometimes there are physical livestock products that do not have a corresponding futures contract that directly matches the underlying market. As such, a cross-hedge strategy can be employed, using a CME Livestock futures contract to manage the price risk of a different, but related, livestock/ meat product which is not traded in the futures market. To ensure the efficiency of a cross-hedge, there must be a strong correlation between the futures price and the cash price of the different livestock/meat product. The other type of futures industry participant is the speculator, an individual or firm that assumes price risk by buying or selling livestock futures in an attempt to profit from a potential change in price or price relationship. The futures market speculator usually does not hold or plan to acquire the cash product. Speculators provide a major benefit to hedgers and the marketplace alike market liquidity. Market liquidity is a measure of the market s efficiency, and it is this efficiency that results in better bids and offers for all market participants, including the hedger. Liquidity is also key to the ability to initiate and offset futures positions. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 9

10 CHAPTER 1 QUIZ 1. In which market does a livestock hedger usually deliver or accept delivery of the physical livestock? a. Futures market b. Option market c. Swap market d. Local cash market 2. What happens to the obligations of most futures contracts used in a hedge? a. They expire worthless b. They are physically delivered c. They are closed-out by an offsetting transaction d. They are converted into a swap contract 3. Which of the following is the only variable element of a standardized livestock futures contracts? a. Quantity b. Quality c. Time of delivery d. Place of delivery 4. If you are long a CME livestock futures contract: a. You have an obligation to accept delivery b. You have an obligation to make delivery c. You have the right but not an obligation to accept delivery d. You have the right but not an obligation to make delivery 5. Where does a livestock futures price come from? a. The contract buyer sets the price b. The Exchange sets the price c. Prices are discovered through bids and offers between buyers and sellers d. The contract seller dictates the price 6. Who is on the other side of a hedger s position? a. Speculator b. Another hedger c. Could be either a hedger or a speculator d. The Exchange e. Price 10

11 7. Who provides the greatest amount of market liquidity? a. Hedgers b. Speculators c. The Exchange d. The Clearing House 8. Who has the right to choose the trading platform when initiating or closing out a position? a. CME Group b. Broker c. You, the customer d. Clearing firm Answers are located in the Appendix. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 11

12 CHAPTER 2 FINANCIAL INTEGRITY OF THE LIVESTOCK FUTURES MARKET One of the key benefits of the futures market is the financial integrity of every contract that is traded and cleared at the exchange, a role fulfilled by CME Clearing. The obligation of a futures contract is ensured through the concept of margin or performance bond. Every buyer and every seller of a futures contract must post and maintain a margin account to ensure their adherence to the terms of the futures contract. The Exchange establishes a minimum margin requirement per contract, called the initial margin, which usually ranges from 5 15% of the contract value. However, brokers may require their customers to post a margin that may be higher than the Exchange minimum. Margin is deposited into a segregated trading account with the customer s FCM. In segregated accounts customers deposits are not commingled with their FCMS proprietary funds. Although the absolute amount of margin is not a cost of trading futures, there is a cost associated with margin: interest. This can be the interest paid on the amount borrowed to fund the margin, or the opportunity cost of not having the earning power on the funds used as margin. It is not necessary to deposit cash as initial margin; there are different types of financial instruments that are acceptable to post as the initial margin requirement. As some forms of acceptable initial margin are interest bearing, the deposit of these forms of capital allow the customer to retain the earning power. Once a position is initiated in a futures contract, the margin account will be adjusted twice daily, based on movements in the futures market. The margin account will receive a credit if the futures market moves in favor of the customer s position, or will be debited if the futures market moves against the position. This daily adjustment process, called marked to market, is based on the futures contract s settlement price for that day. Every open position for a particular futures contract will be marked to market at the end of the trading day against the same daily settlement price for that contract. A margin call is a request from the commodity broker for the customer to deposit additional funds into their margin account. This occurs when the balance in the margin account falls below a specified maintenance margin level. The amount of the additional margin to be deposited must be enough to return the margin account balance back to the initial margin level. 12

13 Market participants receive margin calls when the futures market moves against their position. With a long (buy) futures position, a margin call is received if the market moves low enough to cause the margin account balance to fall below the maintenance level. With a short (sell) futures position, a margin call is received if the futures market moves high enough to cause the margin account balance to fall below the maintenance level. NOTE FOR HEDGERS A hedger s cash market position is always opposite to their futures market position. So if the futures market moves against a hedger s futures position, possibly resulting in a margin call, their cash market position should simultaneously be improving. This will be clarified in the later chapters highlighting hedge examples. The margin system is a key concept which ensures the financial integrity of each and every futures and option contract cleared by CME Clearing. 2. When will a trader get a margin call on a short futures position? a. When a futures market increase causes the margin account balance to fall below the specified maintenance level b. Whenever the broker wants c. When the market settlement price remains steady d. Every day regardless of what happens to the market settlement price 3. What happens to a customer s margin funds that are posted? a. Invested b. Used to pay the commissions c. Put in a segregated margin account to ensure contract performance d. Deposited in any bank 4. Generally speaking, what percentage of a contract value is initial margin? a. 50% To access additional information on margins, including current requirements, acceptable types, and an example of how they work, visit cmegroup.com/clearing. CHAPTER 2 QUIZ 1. What guarantees the financial integrity of a futures contract? a. Premium b. Individual trader s word c. Margin b. 100% c. 5-15% d. 200% 5. Which futures market participants are required to have a margin account? a. Hedgers b. Speculators c. All traders Answers are located in the Appendix. d. Commission LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 13

14 CHAPTER 3 LIVESTOCK CASH MARKET, BASIS AND GENERAL HEDGE THEORY Basis is the most important factor impacting the result of a hedge strategy using either futures or options. The concept of basis is vital because it helps a livestock or meat buyer and seller determine: 1. If they should use futures (or options) to manage the price risk of their eventual cash market purchase or sale, and if so, 2. When to initiate, modify or close out their futures or options position, and then 3. Who they should eventually buy the actual livestock from or sell it to in the cash market What is Basis? Basis is the relationship between a cash market price and a futures contract price. As such, basis reflects the correlation of the hedger s local cash market to the futures market. The better the correlation between the two markets, the more effective the hedge strategy will be. Examples of Different Basis Levels: CASH PRICE MINUS FUTURES PRICE EQUALS BASIS $92.00/cwt. $90.00/cwt or 2.00 over $85.00/cwt. $90.00/cwt or 5.00 under $90.00/cwt. $90.00/cwt. 0, even or no basis BASIS EQUATION Keep in mind that although the basis equation is relatively simple and the amount of time required for the calculation is minimal, the importance and value of maintaining the local basis information should never be under-estimated. Basis equation: Cash Market Price Futures Market Price = Basis 14

15 Which Cash Market Price is Used? Cash markets are the locations where the hedger regularly buys or sells the physical livestock product. There are numerous livestock cash markets in the world, but a hedger only needs to be concerned with their local cash market(s). If they have more than one local cash market that they regularly buy livestock from or sell to, then they will have more than one basis to monitor. Note that even if a hedger uses futures contracts to manage price risk, the eventual purchase or sale of the physical livestock product will usually occur at one of their local cash markets. As stated earlier, basis will be one of the deciding factors to determine the cash market in which they eventually transact. Which Futures Market Price is Used? Since there are also many different contract months for the same livestock futures product, the one the hedgers uses depends on whether they are calculating a current basis or a deferred basis. For calculating a current basis, the hedgers should use today s cash market price minus the nearby futures contract price. The nearby futures contract is the month that is closest to the current time period, but not before. Example 1: If today is March 1, then use the April Live Cattle futures contract Example 2: If today is September 5, then use the October Lean Hog futures contract Example 3: If today is December 10, then use the January Feeder Cattle futures contract The current basis calculation is the more common of the two and will provide an excellent history of what the basis is expected to be at any given time of the year in the local cash market. Although basis history is not an exact science, it is a valuable tool in helping to manage cash market risk. For calculating a deferred basis, the hedger uses a forward cash market quote minus the price of the futures contract month which is closest to but not before the specific time period when he plans to buy or sell the physical livestock product. Example: In January, if a hedger gets a cash forward market quote for March physical delivery of cattle, they would use the April Live Cattle futures contract price in calculation of the deferred basis, i.e., Cash Forward Price (for March delivery) minus April Futures = Deferred Basis A deferred basis can be compared to what the hedgers expects the basis to be at a specific time period in the future. This comparison will help determine if one should use a futures contract or a cash market alternative, such as a cash forward contract, for their risk management positions. If the cash contract that is being offered has a better basis than is expected at the time of physical delivery, then they may choose to use the cash contract. However, if the expected basis is better than what is being offered via the cash market contract, then they may decide to use a futures market contract for their risk management needs. In other words, the decision to use a futures contract or cash forward contract for hedging will depend on how the basis is expected to change from the current time period, to the time period that the hedger expects to buy or sell the physical livestock product. How Can Basis Change? Cash market prices and a futures market price for the same livestock product should be correlated, meaning that the two prices should move up and down together. Although the two markets should move in tandem, they don t necessarily move by the same amount. Any difference in the change in one market s price relative to the other market s change is a change in basis. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 15

16 Stronger Basis If the cash market price increases relative to the futures market price, then the basis is said to have strengthened or gotten stronger the key word is relative. It highlights that a basis can strengthen when prices are moving higher or when prices are moving lower. Stronger Basis When Price Levels Increase Basis can strengthen if the cash market price increases by an amount greater than the increase in the futures market price. Example: If the cash market price for live cattle increased by $2 per hundred weight (cwt) and the Live Cattle futures price increased by $1 per cwt, then the basis strengthened by $1 from the previous basis level. Who Benefits From a Stronger Basis? As we have learned so far, the cash market price is a local factor and the futures market price is a global benchmark that affects everyone who buys or sells that livestock product, regardless of where they are located. In other words, the futures contract price is identical for all market participants at any given time, while the hedger s cash market price is pertinent only to those in his local area. Therefore, the hedger s basis is a reflection of his local cash market relative to the global benchmark futures market. As such, selling hedgers of physical livestock products will benefit if and when the basis strengthens. After all, sellers prefer selling in a strong cash market rather than a weak cash market. Therefore, if the basis strengthens over time, the seller will receive a relatively higher net selling price. Stronger Basis When Price Levels Decrease Basis can also strengthen when the cash market price declines by an amount less than the decline in the futures market price. Example: If the cash market price for hogs declined by 50 cents per cwt and the Lean Hog futures price declined by 70 cents per cwt, the basis strengthened by 20 cents per cwt. STRENGTHENING BASIS Note that when a local basis number becomes more positive or less negative over time, the basis has strengthened. Stronger Basis Movement Weaker Basis If the cash market price decreases relative to a futures market price, then the basis has weakened or gotten weaker. Again, the key word is relative. It highlights that a basis can weaken when prices are moving lower or higher. Weaker Basis When Price Levels Decrease Basis can weaken if the cash market price decreases by an amount greater than the decrease in the futures market price. Example: If the cash market price for feeder cattle decreased by $1.50 per cwt and the Feeder Cattle futures market price decreased by $1 per cwt, then the basis weakened by 50 cents from the previous basis level. Strengthen More positive or Less negative Benefits Short Hedgers Weaker Basis When Price Levels Increase Basis can also weaken when the cash market price increases by an amount less than the increase in the futures market price. Example: If the cash market price for hogs increased by 50 cents per cwt and the Lean Hog futures price increased by 60 cents per cwt, the basis weakened by 10 cents per cwt. 16

17 WEAKENING BASIS Note that when a local basis number becomes less positive or more negative over time, the basis has weakened. Weaker Basis Movement Weaken Less positive or More negative Benefits Long Hedgers Who Benefits From a Weaker Basis? Think about the market participants who may prefer to buy in a weak cash market. Following this rationale, buyers of physical livestock products (buying hedgers) will benefit if and when the basis weakens. That is, if the basis weakens over time, the buyer will pay a relatively lower net purchase price. Getting Started With Basis One of the first things the hedger needs to decide is how often to calculate his local basis--usually more data is better As such, calculating the daily basis is the most common. The hedger should use the local cash market price that occurs around the time of the futures market settlement (currently 1:00 p.m. Chicago time) and the futures contract s daily settlement price. Some people prefer to track the weekly basis. For this type of information, it is important to be consistent in using data from the same day every week. Many market participants who track basis weekly may prefer to use data from Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday, rather than from Monday or Friday, which may have greater volatility. Although initiating a historical basis table and/or basis chart and moving forward may be easy, it may take a little more work to obtain local basis information from the past. However, hedgers may find this additional research effort very worthwhile when they begin their price risk management program. A hedger may start their research by contacting local hedge brokers, county extension offices, lenders, or market advisors. Also, university livestock marketing professors may have basis information for their area. Tracking Basis Basis can be done with pencil and paper, or on a computer spreadsheet. The following is a sample cattle basis table: Sample Basis Spreadsheet DATE (MM/DD/YR) CASH MARKET FUTURES CONTRACT MONTH BASIS COMMENTS 03/15/xxxx (April) Heavy local selling 03/16/xxxx (April) Selling slows pace 03/17/xxxx (April) No news Once the data is collected in tabular form, the hedger may want to create a basis chart, which will provide a visual effect of the basis changes. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 17

18 Seasonal Live Cattle Basis Seasonal Live Cattle Basis Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aog Sep Oct Nov Dec weakest average strongest With several years of basis information, a chart can be created to highlight the strongest, weakest, average and range of basis for a particular week of the calendar year. Source: CME Group and USDA Live Cattle Monthly Basis (Cash-Futures) Live Cattle Monthly Basis (Cash-Futures) Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 As stated earlier, knowing what the forward quoted basis is compared to where the basis is expected to be during any calendar week of the year, will help make the decision of which risk management contract and strategy appears to work best. Source: CME Group and USDA BASIS DATA The format or frequency of basis data collection is a choice. The most important thing is to just get started collecting it. Basis Summary From the amount of information devoted to the topic of basis in this publication, it should be clear how important this concept is to price risk management. As such, a good student of basis should have an easier task of becoming a good student of price risk management. General Hedging Theory There are two primary elements to hedging theory: the cash/ futures price relationship and the market positions of the hedge. 1. For a hedge to be effective there has to be a positive relationship, or correlation, between the hedger s local cash market price and a futures market price for the same or related commodity. If there is a positive correlation, as one market moves the other market also moves in the same direction, even though their prices may not change on a 1 to 1 basis. That change would indicate a 100% correlation or perfect correlation, but it 18

19 is usually less than this. A general rule of thumb is that 80% or better correlation should result in an effective hedge. 2. To be hedged is to have opposite positions in the cash market and the futures market. That is, one would be long the cash market and short futures, or short the cash market and long futures. These opposite positions need to be maintained throughout the life of the hedge. Hedge Results The result of a hedge should be the same regardless of which direction the price moves. In a properly executed hedge, one would experience a loss in one market and a gain in the other, i.e., a loss in the futures market would be offset by a gain in the cash market and vice versa. The exception may occur when there is a change in the correlation or in other words, when there is a change in basis. HEDGING INCLUDES CASH + FUTURES A common misconception about hedging is that the hedge is only the futures market position. Remember that a hedge always consists of a futures market position and a cash market position. It is the combined result of these two market positions that determines the result of the hedge. CHAPTER 3 QUIZ 1. What is Basis? a. Relationship between two different futures contract prices b. Relationship between two different cash market prices c. Relationship between a cash market price and a futures market price d. Relationship between a margin level and the commission 2. In the basis equation, which factor is the same for all locations in the world? a. The cash market price b. The option strike price c. The futures market price d. The basis 3. What happens if a cash market price gains relative to a futures price over time? a. Basis strengthens and benefits the long hedger d. Doesn t have an impact on basis 4. What is the relationship between a cash market position and a futures market position in a hedge? a. The positions are identical b. Opposite of each other c. The futures position is always larger than the cash market position d. The futures position is always smaller than the cash market position 5. For a hedge to be effective, what is necessary? a. Integration between the cash and futures market b. Simulation between the cash and futures market c. Correlation between the cash and futures market prices d. Inflation in the economy Answers are located in the Appendix. b. Basis strengthens and benefits the short hedger c. Basis weakens and benefits the short hedger LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 19

20 CHAPTER 4 SHORT FUTURES HEDGE: PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LIVESTOCK SELLERS The short futures hedge is one of the most basic price risk management strategies for an individual or firm who has intentions of selling cash (physical) livestock or meat at some point in the future. A potential seller of livestock or livestock products is primarily concerned about falling prices in their local markets. Other potential short hedgers would be anyone who is holding inventory and as such, is exposed to the risk of falling prices as it will negatively impact their inventory value. Examples of Potential Short Hedgers Cattle ranchers Hog producers Feedlots Packers holding inventory Exporters Food related businesses holding inventory (e.g., restaurants, butchers, food processors) Concept and Mechanics of the Short Futures Hedge The concept of a short futures hedge is to use a futures contract to manage the risk of falling prices in the hedger s local cash market at some point in the future. Price risk management can be used to protect either short term or long term sales, as well as inventory value. The mechanics of a short hedge consists of two necessary features: 1. The short hedge always consists of two market positions: one in the livestock futures market and one in a local cash market. The initial short futures market position in a short hedge is solely for the protection against falling cash livestock prices. As such, the short futures position acts as a temporary substitute for the eventual cash market sale of the actual livestock or livestock product. At all times during the life of a hedge, the futures market position should be opposite the cash market position. For a short hedge, the initial cash market position is long the physical livestock or livestock product, which they are either producing or own in the case of inventory. Therefore, the initial futures position of a short hedge is short futures. 20

21 These market positions of a short hedge are maintained until the time that the risk of falling prices no longer exists for that specific cash sale transaction. This occurs when the actual livestock or inventory is sold or priced in the cash market. Immediately upon the sale or pricing of the actual livestock or physical inventory, the futures position is no longer needed and should be offset by buying back the initial short futures position. If a hedger does not maintain simultaneous opposite positions in the cash and futures market, it is no longer considered a hedge. It may even be considered to be a speculative transaction. 2. The cash market price and the futures market price are positively correlated, moving up and down together. Remember, that although the two markets move in the same direction, the amount of change in one market could be different than the other. As that occurs there would be a change in the basis over time. The short (selling) hedger is looking for opportunities for their local basis to strengthen by the time the hedge is closed out. Short Hedge Results When combining the two previously discussed features of a short hedge, if the risk of falling prices actually occurs, the lower selling price in the cash market should be offset by a gain in the futures market. If the price risk does not occur and prices increase, the higher cash selling price will be offset by a loss in the futures market position. Regardless of the price direction, a loss in one market should be offset by a gain in the other. When initiating a position, the hedger obviously does not know which market will have a gain and which one will have a loss. However, they should be secure in knowing that they have a position in the futures market that should protect them against falling prices in their local market. SHORT HEDGE EXAMPLE # 1 Falling Hog Prices with Basis Remaining as Expected DATE CASH MARKET FUTURES MARKET BASIS March 15 Expected hog price at $70.00/ cwt based on expected September basis of (under) October futures Short October Lean Hogs/cwt at $ September 25 Sell hogs at $65.00/cwt Buy (offset) October Lean Hogs at $70.00/cwt Results Lower revenue of $5.00 $5.00 gain No change Sell cash hogs at $65.00/cwt Futures gain Net selling price $70.00/cwt Note: Although the cash market for hogs declined from March to September resulting in lower revenue from the cash sale, the futures market position resulted in a gain, which offset the lower cash selling price. As such, the short hedger achieved price protection and the expected selling price of $ LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 21

22 SHORT HEDGE EXAMPLE # 2 Rising Prices with Basis Remaining as Expected DATE CASH MARKET FUTURES MARKET BASIS March 15 Expected hog price at $70.00/ cwt based on expected September basis of (under) October futures Short October Lean Hogs at $75.00/cwt September 25 Sell hogs at $73.00/cwt Buy (offset) October Lean Hogs at $78.00/cwt Results Higher revenue of $3.00 $3.00 loss No change Sell cash hogs at $73.00/cwt Futures gain Net selling price $70.00/cwt Note: Although the cash market for hogs rallied from March to September resulting in higher revenue from the cash sale, the futures market position resulted in a loss, which offset the higher cash selling price. As such, the short hedger again achieved the expected selling price of $ SHORT HEDGE EXAMPLE # 3 Falling Prices with Stronger than Expected Basis DATE CASH MARKET FUTURES MARKET BASIS March 15 Expected hog price at $70.00/ cwt based on expected September basis of (under) October futures Short October Lean Hogs at $75.00/cwt September 25 Sell hogs at $68.00/cwt Buy (offset) October Lean Hogs at $70.00/cwt Results Lower revenue of $2.00 $5.00 gain 3.00 basis gain Sell cash hogs at $68.00/cwt Futures gain Net selling price $73.00/cwt Note: As a result of the cash market declining less than the futures market price, the basis improved (strengthened). Although the cash market for hogs declined from March to September resulting in lower revenue from the cash sale, the gain on the futures market position more than offset the lower revenue. Due to a stronger basis at the time of the cash sale, the short hedger received $3.00 more than the expected selling price of $

23 SHORT HEDGE EXAMPLE # 4 Rising Prices with Weaker than Expected Basis DATE CASH MARKET FUTURES MARKET BASIS March 15 Expected hog price at $70.00/ cwt based on expected September basis of (under) October futures Short October Lean Hogs at $75.00/cwt September 25 Sell hogs at $71.00/cwt Buy (offset) October Lean Hogs at $77.00/cwt Results Higher revenue of $1.00 $2.00 loss 1.00 basis loss Sell cash hogs at $71.00/cwt Futures gain Net selling price $69.00/cwt Note: Overall, the basis weakened as a result of the cash market increasing less than the increase in the futures market price. Although the cash market for hogs rallied from March to September resulting in higher revenue from the cash sale, the loss on the futures market position exceeded the gain in the cash market. As a result of the weaker basis at the time of the cash sale, the short hedger received $1.00 less than the expected selling price of $ LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 23

24 Highlights of the Short Hedge Regardless of the price change over time, a loss in either the cash or futures market is offset by a gain in the other market, resulting in the same net selling price. The one key factor which could affect this net outcome is a change in the basis at the time of the cash market sale. A short (selling) hedger s net result will improve if the basis strengthens, and the net result will be worse if the basis weakens at the time of the cash sale. In addition to the impact of a basis change, the short hedger needs to subtract the futures brokerage commission from the net result. SHORT HEDGE A short hedge is the use of two markets (cash and futures) to establish a selling price, and it is this selling price that will determine the profitability of the business. Although there may be different nuances to each type of livestock, this key concept applies to any individual or firm who plans to sell cattle, feeder cattle or hogs. CHAPTER 4 QUIZ 1. What are the short hedger s initial positions? 3. After a short hedge is initiated, what changes impact the result of the hedge? a. Change in the cash market price b. Change in the futures market price c. Change in the margin level d. Change in the basis 4. If price levels go lower after a short hedge is initiated, what are the results? a. Gain in the cash market and gain in the futures market b. Loss in the cash market and loss in the futures market c. Gain in the cash market and loss in the futures market d. Loss in the cash market and gain in the futures market 5. What will have an impact on the net hedged selling price? a. Stronger basis will improve the results of the hedge b. Brokerage commission must be subtracted from the results c. Interest costs associated with the short hedger s margin account d. All of the above a. Short cash market and long futures market b. Short cash market and short futures market Answers are located in the Appendix. c. Long cash market and short futures market d. Long cash market and long futures market? 2. What change will benefit a short hedger? a. Falling prices b. Rising prices c. Stronger basis d. Weaker basis 24

25 CHAPTER 5 LONG FUTURES HEDGE: PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LIVESTOCK BUYERS The long futures hedge is one of the most basic price risk management strategies for an individual or firm who has intentions of buying cash (physical) livestock or livestock products at some point in the future. A potential buyer of livestock or livestock products is primarily concerned about rising prices in their local markets, which would have a negative impact on their profitability. Examples of Potential Long Livestock Hedgers Packers Feedlots Importers Restaurants Food processors Livestock producers/feedlots (also potential long feed grain hedgers) Concept and Mechanics of the Long Futures Hedge The concept of a long futures hedge is to use a futures contract to manage the risk of rising prices in the hedger s local cash market at some point in the future. Price risk management can be used to protect either short term or long term purchases. The mechanics of a long hedge consists of two necessary features: 1. The long hedge always consists of two market positions: one in the livestock futures market and one in a local cash market. The initial long futures market position in a long hedge is solely for protection against rising livestock prices in the hedger s local market. At all times during the life of a long hedge, the futures market position has to be opposite the cash market position. For a long hedge, the initial cash market position is short the physical livestock or product, which means they do not currently own it but will need to buy it in the future. Therefore, the initial futures position of a long hedge is long futures. As such, the initial long futures position is a temporary substitute for the eventual purchase in the cash market. The market positions of a long hedge are maintained until the time that the risk of rising prices no longer exists for that specific cash purchase. That occurs when the actual livestock or livestock product is bought or priced in the cash market. Immediately upon the purchase or pricing of the livestock or livestock product, the futures position is no longer needed and should be offset by selling back the initial long futures position. LIVESTOCK SELF STUDY GUIDE CME GROUP 25