Using Futures, Options or LRP Insurance to Manage Feeder Cattle Price Risk
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1 Using Futures, Options or LRP Insurance to Manage Feeder Cattle Price Risk Dillon M. Feuz - Utah State University and John P. Hewlett University of Wyoming
2 Understanding Risk In Agricultural Prices Wyoming Auctions 650 Steer Calf Price October 2006 $ per cwt November 2006 $ per cwt A difference of $77 per calf sold The prior 5 years the average difference was less than $25 per head between Oct and Nov Reason for drop in 2006, Grain Prices were increasing dramatically during that time frame
3 Understanding Risk In Agricultural Prices The futures market is a predictor of prices in the future For example, in the spring cattle producers look at fall feeder cattle futures contract to get an idea of what calf and feeder cattle prices might be in the fall How much do these futures contracts prices change from spring to fall Specifically Nov Feeder Cattle Futures
4 Changes in Nov Feeder Cattle Futures from Spring to Fall, PDF Approximation (Mar to Nov) PDF Approximation (Jul to Nov) PDF Approximation (May to Nov) Range of Market Changes On Average Prices were about what were expected $19/cwt lower in fall than expected $22/cwt higher in the fall than expected Standard Deviation = $9.50/cwt
5 Changes in Nov Feeder Cattle Futures from Spring to Fall, A Standard Deviation of 9.50 This means that in 1 out of 3 years prices are likely to be more than $9.50 per cwt higher or lower in November than what was expected in the spring That means $50 more or $50 less than you expected for a 550 lb calf You probably are not concerned about the $50 more, can you financially withstand the $50 less?
6 November Feeder Cattle
7 What Choices do you have if you do not wean and sell until November? Separate the Pricing and Delivery Decision Price any time Deliver in November when you wean Pricing Alternatives Forward Contract / Futures Hedge Put Option / LRP Feeder Cattle Insurance
8 Cash Price Uncertainty $1.20/lb Price Calf Price $1.00/lb Past Today Projected Sale Day Time
9 Cash Price Uncertainty Forward Contract $1.20/lb Price Calf Price $1.09 $1.00/lb Past Today Projected Sale Day Time
10 Cash Price Uncertainty Futures Hedge $1.20/lb Price Calf Price $1.12 $1.08 Past Today $1.00/lb Projected Sale Day Time
11 Cash Price Uncertainty Put Option or LRP Insurance $1.20/lb Price Calf Price $1.07 $1.00/lb Past Today Projected Sale Day Time
12 Net Price Comparison of Pricing Strategies Cash Hedge $106 Put Your Range Futures Price
13 Short Futures Hedge Date Cash Futures Basis Aug 4 Exp. Net Sale Price $120 Sell Nov FC $115 Exp. $5.00
14 Futures Hedge (Actual) Date Cash Futures Basis Aug 4 Exp. Net Sale Price $120 Sell Nov FC $115 Exp. $5.00 Nov 2 Sell 550 lb Steer $ Buy Nov FC $ $7.36 $3.45 NSP = =
15 Futures Hedge (Higher Scenario) Date Cash Futures Basis Aug 4 Exp. Net Sale Price $120 Sell Nov FC $115 Exp. $5.00 Nov 2 Sell 550 lb Steer $ Buy Nov FC $ $5.00 -$5.00 NSP = =
16 Hedging Summary and Risk A short hedger will receive the expected net price regardless of whether futures prices move higher or lower However, if basis weakens, then the short hedger will receive a lower net price than expected If basis strengthens, then the short hedger will receive a higher net price than expected Hedging removes price level risk Hedging does not remove basis risk, local price risk relative to the market level
17 Options and Futures Futures contracts are an obligation Must deliver or offset Liable for margin calls Locked into a price Options on futures contracts are the right to take a position in the futures market at a given price called the strike price, but beyond the initial premium, the option holder has no obligation to act on the contract Lock-in a price but can still participate in the market if prices move favorably No margin calls Pay a premium for the option (similar to price insurance) Feuz Cattle and Beef Market Analysis
18 Buy a Put Option for Price Protection Put option: the right to sell a futures contract at a given price (right to a short position at a given strike price)
19 The Mechanics of Put Option A producer buys a Put to protect against declining prices Chooses Strike Price and Pays the premium Determines the minimum expected price
20 Minimum Expected Price Examples Min Exp Price = Strike Price Premium +/- Basis $ = $108 - $ $2.00 feeder cattle $93.20 = $98 - $ $1.50 live cattle
21 Buying a Put Nov 2010 FC (Actual) Date Cash Options Basis Aug 4 Exp. Min. Buy $112 FC Exp. $ Put $5.00 Nov 2 Sell 550 lb Steer $ Pay $2.18 Nov FC $112 Put has $1.30 value -$0.88 Net Sale Price = $ $0.88 = $ Actual $7.36
22 Buying a Put Nov 2007 FC (Higher Scenario) Date Cash Options Basis Aug 4 Exp. Min. Buy $112 FC Exp. $ Put $5.00 Nov 2 Sell 550 lb Steer $125 Pay $2.18 Nov FC 120 $112 Put as $0 value -$2.18 Net Sale Price = $125 +$2.18 = $ Actual $5.00
23 Put Option Summary Put Options can be used to establish a price floor, a minimum price Worst case you lose your premium Can take advantage of higher market prices
24 LRP Feeder Cattle Insurance Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Establishes a floor selling price Pays producer if National cash price index falls below insured level Does not insure your cash price Basis risk must still be considered Very similar to purchasing a put option Options are fixed in size (50,000 lbs) LRP is flexible (1-1,000 hd) LRP purchased through Crop Insurance Rep.
25 LRP Terminology Expected Ending Value (EEV) The expected National cash index This is based on the underlying futures market price at the time Coverage Prices Range from 70% to 95% of EEV Determines level of protection Similar to choosing a strike price for a put option
26 LRP Terminology Cost Per CWT Cost/cwt = Coverage Price X Rate Premium cost of coverage Similar to a Put Premium Actual Ending Value (AEV) Cash Index Price on Coverage End Date Indemnity Paid if AEV is Less than Coverage Price Indemnity = Coverage Price - AEV
27 Feeder Cattle Actual Ending Value CME Feeder Cattle Cash Index Price National Average lb. Steers Medium and Large Frame 1-2 beef steers If insuring lighter steers, heifers, Brahman or dairy calves a price adjustment is used
28 Price Adjustment Factor Weight Steers Heifers Brahman Dairy Weight 1 Weight 1 Weight 1 Weight 1 < 600 lbs 110% 100% 100% 100% Weight Steers Heifers Brahman Dairy Weight 2 Weight 2 Weight 2 Weight lbs 100% 90% 90% 80%
29 Feeder Cattle LRP Example Aug 4, 2010, Expect to sell 100 head of 550 lb steer calves in 13 weeks Expect to Sell Nov 2, 2010 Expected Ending Value = $126.42/cwt (Nov FC X 1.10) Coverage Price = $120.94/cwt EEV X Coverage Level = $126.42/cwt X 95.67% Rate = Cost/Cwt = $2.07/cwt Coverage Price X Rate = $120.94/cwt X
30 Feeder Cattle LRP Actual Result Coverage Price $ Actual Ending Value $ CME FC Index $ X 1.10 = $ Actual Ending Value is higher than Coverage Price No indemnity paid Net Price is $ $2.07 = $116.84
31 Feeder Cattle LRP (Lower Scenario) Coverage Price $ Actual Ending Value $ CME FC Index $105 X 1.10 = $ Actual Ending Value is lower than Coverage Price Indemnity paid of $5.44 ($ $115.50) Net Price is $112 + $5.44 = $117.44
32 More Detailed Information Futures and Options Dillon Feuz, Utah State University, has an on-line series of Marketing Workshops at: LRP Insurance Darrell Mark, University of Nebraska- Lincoln has an on-line series of LRP Workshops at:
33 Cow-Calf Risk Analysis Tool (CCRAT) On-Line Decision Support Tool Developed by Dillon M Feuz, USU Funded in part by the USDA-RMA Compare Expected Returns Using Cash Futures Options LRP Feeder Cattle Insurance AGR-Lite Crop Insurance
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