Global Engine Fleet and Market Forecast 2015-2025 April 15, 2015 Tom Cooper Vice President CAVOK, a division of OLIVER WYMAN 1003 Virginia Ave, Suite 300 Atlanta, Georgia 30354 Office +1 (404) 334 8080 tcooper@cavokgrpup.com
1 Engine Fleet Forecast
The global air transport jet and turboprop engine fleet will grow by more than 20,000 net new engines by 2025 2015-2015 Engine Fleet Forecast by Engine Manufacturer Key Fleet Forecast Highlights CFM Int'l GE Pratt & Whitney Rolls-Royce IAE Honeywell P&W Alliance Power Jet New TP Engine Aviadvigatel 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 18,512 30,842 10,630 12,119 9,214 13,772 5,898 7,078 5,072 2015 50,478 engines 5,082 2025 70,563 engines 806 116 292 744 54 256 0 480 0 74 Global engine fleet will grow on average 3.4% over the full forecast period. Today, the top 3 engine manufacturers are CFM Int l, GE, and Pratt & Whitney CFM International s fleet has the greatest market share (36.7%) More than 15 points larger than the next largest fleet CFMI s installed base will widen the gap by 2025 Pratt and Whitney also makes large gains over the next ten years, increasing their fleet size by nearly 50% The growth outlook, however, varies widely from region to region 2
A 5 pt. spread in regional growth rates leads to a significant share shift over the decade ahead 2015 2025 Engine Fleet Size 10YR CAGR 2015-2025 Absolute Growth North America 15,257 16,504 0.8% 1,247 Europe 13,179 16,685 2.4% 3,506 Latin America & the Caribbean 3,539 5,445 4.4% 1,906 Africa / Middle East 4,903 7,987 5.0% 3,084 Asia Pacific / China / India 23,942 13,600 5.8% 10,342 The mature North American and Western European markets will continue to undergo significant re-fleeting during the next 10 years 3
Fleet growth and systematic replacement of older aircraft with new technology aircraft will drive significant change in the engine MRO business 2015 Engine Fleet Forecast by Engine Model 2025 Engine Fleet Forecast by Engine Model PW4000 2,160 CFM56-3 1,926 GE90 JT8D 1,644 1,456 Other 10,924 GEnx GEnx 2,920 CF34 2,920 3,880 LEAP-1A LEAP-1A 4,468 4,468 GE90 2,248 Other 15,039 CF6 3,390 PW100 4,086 CF34 4,640 V2500 5,072 CFM56-5B 5,680 CFM56-7B 9,500 V2500 5,082 PW100 5,150 CFM56-5B 6,068 PW1000G PW1000G 6,736 6,736 CFM56-7B 12,010 LEAP-1B LEAP-1B 6,962 6,962 Next generation engines will comprise 30% of the fleet by 2025 4
2 Engine MRO Market Forecast
The engine MRO grows to nearly $47 billion by 2025 2015-2015 Global MRO Market Forecast by MRO Segment 2015-2015 Engine MRO Market Forecast by Engine OEM MRO Spend in 2015 Dollars ($USB) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $67.1 $12.3 $12.4 $27.9 4.0% 4.1% 5.9% $15.0 $15.2 $37.1 $17.8 $19.2 $46.8 1.9% 1.0% $14.5 $15.9 $16.7 2015 2015-2020 $83.2 3.5% 4.7% 4.8% 2020 2020-2025 Forecast Year and Forecast CAGR Airframe Engine Component Line $100.4 2025 OEM 2015 2020 2025 CAGR 2015-2025 GE Aviation $8.2 $10.2 $11.5 3.5% CFM Int'l $5.3 $7.8 $14.0 10.3% Rolls-Royce $5.2 $7.3 $8.9 5.6% IAE $4.8 $7.4 $6.1 2.5% Pratt & Whitney $4.3 $3.4 $5.0 1.4% GE - P&W Alliance $0.2 $1.0 $1.2 20.9% Honeywell $0.1 $0.0 $0.0-26.9% Grand Total $27.9 $37.1 $46.8 5.3% Engine on-wing times growing; shop visits more expensive. 6
New technology engines are forecast to make up an increasing share of the market over the period 2015-2025 Global Engine Fleet Forecast Legacy vs New Generation 2015-2025 Global Engine MRO Market Forecast Legacy vs New Generation Engine Fleet Size 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 60,160 50,478 25.1% 14,118 4,602 0.1% 45,876 46,042 17.4% -3.2% 70,563 31,532 39,031 MRO Spend in 2015 Dollars ($USB) $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $27.9 $1.9 $26.0 28.1% 3.4% $46.8 22.5% $37.1 $17.7 $6.4-1.1% $30.7 $29.1 0 2015 2015-2020 2020 2020-2025 Forecast Year and Forecast CAGR Legacy New Generation 2025 $0 2015 2015-2020 2020 2020-2025 Forecast Year and Forecast CAGR Legacy New Generation 2025 Largest MRO growth through 2025 for new technology engines 7
With 78% of the new aircraft deliveries forecast to replace older aircraft, the North American engine MRO forecast is virtually flat 2015-2025 North American Engine Fleet Forecast Legacy vs New Generation 2015-2025 North American Engine MRO Forecast Legacy vs New Generation Engine Fleet Size 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 16,027 15,257 17.6% 1,768 3,972-2.2% 13,489 12,055 12.8% -5.2% 16,504 7,258 9,246 MRO Spend in 2015 Dollars ($USB) $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $8.2 $0.9 $7.3 1.9% -1.1% $9.3 $7.9 28.9% $1.0 $3.7-4.0% $6.9 $5.6 0 2015 2015-2020 2020 2020-2025 Forecast Year and Forecast CAGR Legacy New Generation 2025 $0 2015 2015-2020 2020 2020-2025 Forecast Year and Forecast CAGR Legacy New Generation 2025 Honeymoon periods for new engines will impact the market in the near term; long term trend towards OEM engine MRO will accelerate 8
With aggressive fleet renewal, interesting to consider how engine management practices change over time Engine management practices over engine life cycle 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Strong MRO market PBTH T&M New material Cost/hour is key metric Strong Asset Management market Exchanges Leases Short life builds Repairs/Used material/der/pma Cost/SV is key metric 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Years from EIS of Program Asset management will be very active in current/coming fleet renewal cycle 9
3 Divining the Future
Trends and Challenges Big changes underway Strong world growth Re-fleeting for North America New technology engines as growing share of fleet Fuel efficiency dominates operating economics Operators expect maintenance costs to be flat relative to current models Operators more sophisticated and demanding More consideration of maintenance at the time of equipment purchase/lease With fewer and more expensive shop visits, look for creative solutions at each SV opportunity New generation of engines are being designed by OEMs with expectation that they will control MRO over the life of the engine Life cycle and roll of lessors increasingly important Challenge for independent engine MRO to maintain share 11
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