Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts March 2015

Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts March 215

Real Sector and Inflation Real GDP Growth (Annual /Quarterly) Sectoral GDP Growth Per Capita GDP Unemployment Poverty Inflation (Headline and Core Inflation) External Sector Earnings from Merchandise Exports Earnings from Merchandise Imports Trade Balance Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings Tourism: Monthly Arrivals Workers Remittances Current Account Balance Balance of Payment Foreign Direct Investment Flows Gross Official Reserves Exchange Rate Movements Index Fiscal Sector Government Revenue Government Expenditure: Recurrent Expenditure Government Expenditure: Public Investment Budget Deficit Public Debt Monetary Sector Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Broad Money Growth Credit to the Private Sector Net Credit to Government Credit to Public Corporations Net Foreign Assets Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Market Interest Rates Financial Sector Banking Sector Indicators(i) Banking Sector Indicators(ii) Banking Density Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(i) Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(ii) Stock Market Performance

Real Sector and Inflation

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 28-Q1 28-Q4 29-Q3 21-Q2 211-Q1 211-Q4 212-Q3 213-Q2 214-Q1 214-Q4 Real GDP Growth Annual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth 1 1 % 8 6 4 2 6. 4. 5.9 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6. 3.5 8. 8.2 6.3 7.2 7.4 % 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.3 8. 8. 8.1 8. 7.9 8.2 7.6 7.8 7.7 7. 7.1 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.1 4.8 4.3 4.2 2.1 1.6-2 -1.5 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Sectoral GDP Growth 15 Agriculture Sector 15 Industry Sector 1 5 1-5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5-1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 211 212 213 214 211 212 213 214 Services Sector 1 8 6 4 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 211 212 213 214 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

US$ Per Capita GDP 4, 3,625 3,5 3,28 3, 2,836 2,922 2,5 2,397 2, 2,11 2,54 1,617 1,5 1, 869 838 874 981 1,62 1,241 1,421 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

% Unemployment 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 7.6 7.9 8.8 8.4 8.3 7.2 6.5 6. 5.4 5.8 4.9 4.2 4. 4.4 4.3 3 2 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

% Poverty Poverty Headcount Ratio 35 3 28.8 25 22.7 2 15 15.2 1 5 8.9 6.7 1995/1996 22 26/27 29/21 212/213 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 % Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation(Y-O-Y) 3 25 25 2 2 15 % 15 1 1 5 1.4 5 2.5.1 Core (xffet+ RC)* Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.) *Calculated by excluding fresh food, energy, transport, rice and coconut from the Colombo Consumers Price index. Source: Department of Census and Statistics

External Sector

US$ mn Earnings from Merchandise Exports 1,1 1,5 1, 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 212 213 214 215 Source: and Sri Lanka Custom

US$ mn Expenditure on Merchandise Imports 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 211 212 213 214 215 Source: and Sri Lanka Custom

US$ bn Trade Balance. -2. -4. -1.8-1.2-1.4-1.5-2.2-2.5-3.4-3.7-3.1-1.9-4.8-6. -6. -8. -7.6-8.3-1. -9.7-9.4-12. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Source:

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 US$ mn Number Number Tourism Arrivals and Earnings Monthly Arrivals 3, 1,8, 2, 2,5 2431 1,6, 1,4, 18, 16, 2, 1,5 1, 5 252 213 363 454 48 429 41 385 342 35 576 83 139 1715 762 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Earnings from tourism(us$ mn) Tourist arrivals(no) 212 213 214 215 Source: and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA) Source: SLTDA

US$ mn Workers Remittances 8, 7, 6, 5,985 6,47 7,18 5, 5,145 4, 3, 2, 1,16 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,35 1,968 2,161 2,52 2,918 3,33 4,116 1,661 1, 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Source:

US$ bn Current Account Balance. -.5 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.2-1. -1.5-1.1 -.6 -.7-1.5-1.4-1.1-2. -2. -2.5-2.5-3. -3.5-4. -4.5-5. -3.9-4. -4.6 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source:

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 US$ mn Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 1,8 1,685 1,6 1,4 1,382 1,437 1,2 1,66 1, 889 8 6 64 734 61 516 4 2 175 82 197 229 223 272 Source:, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange

US$ bn Balance of Payments 3. 2.5 Overall Balance 2.7 2. 1.5 1.4 1..9 1..5. -.5.2.3.5 -.2.5.2.5-1.4-1.1.2 -.5-1. -1.5-2. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source:

Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 US$ bn Months Gross Official Reserves 1 Gross Official Reserves and Months of Imports 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gross Reserves Months of Imports Source:

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Exchange Rate Movements Rs. 139 134 129 124 119 114 19 US Dollar Rs. 143 138 133 128 123 118 113 18 13 Australian Dollar Rs. 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. Japanese Yen Rs. 22 21 2 19 18 17 Sterling Pound Rs. 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 Indian Rupee Rs. 178 168 158 148 138 Euro Source:

Fiscal Sector

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 P. % of GDP Government Revenue 18 16 14 12 16.8 16.6 16.6 15.2 14.9 15.5 16.3 15.8 14.9 14.5 14.6 14.8 13.9 13.1 12.2 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Ministry of Finance

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 P. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 P. % of GDP % of GDP Government Expenditure Recurrent Expenditure Public Investment 25 8 2 15 21.6 2.9 2.2 18.4 18.6 18.1 18.6 17.4 16.9 18.2 16.7 15.7 14.9 13.9 13.5 7 6 5 6.4 5.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 6.1 6 6.4 6. 6.8 6.4 6.5 5.9 5.5 5. 4 1 3 5 2 1 Source: Ministry of Finance

% of GDP Budget Deficit 12 1 9.5 1.4 9.9 8 6 8.5 7.3 7.5 7 7 6.9 7 8 6.9 6.5 5.9 6. 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 P. Source: Ministry of Finance

2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 P. % of GDP Central Government Debt 12 1 8 96.9 13.3 15.6 12.3 12.3 9.6 87.9 85. 81.4 86.2 81.9 78.5 79.2 78.3 75.5 6 4 2 Source: Ministry of Finance

Economic Research Department Monetary Sector

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 % Y-O-Y Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Reserve Money Growth(Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier 3 25 2 24.7 2.6 18.8 7 6 5 15 4 1 5 8.8 3.4 1.5 3 2 1-5 -1.6 M1 M2 M2b Source:

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % Broad Money Growth 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Broad Money (M 2b ) Growth(Y-O-Y) 22.8 2.7 19.1 18.2 18.3 16.7 17.7 15.2 15.3 14.7 13. 12.5 12.8 11.9 Source:

Jan-2 Mar-2 May-2 Jul-2 Sep-2 Nov-2 Jan-3 Mar-3 May-3 Jul-3 Sep-3 Nov-3 Jan-4 Mar-4 May-4 Jul-4 Sep-4 Nov-4 Jan-5 Mar-5 May-5 Jul-5 Sep-5 Nov-5 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Rs.bn % 3, 2,5 2, Credit to the Private Sector 28.5 34.4 4 35 3 25 2 1,5 13.9 15 8.8 1 1, 5.3 5 5-6.3-5 -1 Private Sector Credit Volume(LHS) Private Sector Credit Growth(RHS) Source:

Jan- Aug- Mar-1 Oct-1 May-2 Dec-2 Jul-3 Feb-4 Sep-4 Apr-5 Nov-5 Jun-6 Jan-7 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Net Credit to the Government 1,8 1,6 1645 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 1343 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 781 8 6 4 2 23 4 2 Central Bank Commercial Banks Claim on Government (net) Source:

Dec-1 Mar-2 Jun-2 Sep-2 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Credit to Public Corporations 6 5 485 4 3 364 359 331 2 155 1 41 54 Source:

Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Rs.bn Net Foreign Assets(NFA) 1, 8 6 4 253.17 2-2 -4-6 -8-197.8-162.4-1, NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System Source:

3-Jan-12 4-Mar-12 7-Apr-12 11-May-12 14-Jun-12 18-Jul-12 21-Aug-12 24-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 1-Dec-12 4-Jan-13 7-Feb-13 13-Mar-13 16-Apr-13 2-May-13 23-Jun-13 27-Jul-13 3-Aug-13 3-Oct-13 6-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 13-Jan-14 16-Feb-14 22-Mar-14 25-Apr-14 29-May-14 2-Jul-14 5-Aug-14 8-Sep-14 12-Oct-14 15-Nov-14 19-Dec-14 22-Jan-15 25-Feb-15 31-Mar-15 % Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 Average Weighted Call Money Rate Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Standing Lending Facility Rate ** *Previously named as the Repo Rate ** Previously named as the Reverse Repo Rate Source:

1-Jan-11 2-Feb-11 11-Apr-11 31-May-11 2-Jul-11 8-Sep-11 28-Oct-11 17-Dec-11 5-Feb-12 26-Mar-12 15-May-12 4-Jul-12 23-Aug-12 12-Oct-12 1-Dec-12 2-Jan-13 11-Mar-13 3-Apr-13 19-Jun-13 8-Aug-13 27-Sep-13 16-Nov-13 5-Jan-14 24-Feb-14 15-Apr-14 4-Jun-14 24-Jul-14 12-Sep-14 1-Nov-14 21-Dec-14 9-Feb-15 31-Mar-15 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 8 Year 1 Year 15 Year 2 Year 3 Year % % Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Treasury Bill Yields and Policy Interest Rates 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 Secondary Market Yield Curve Standing Deposit Facility Rate Standing Lending Facility Rate 91- Day Treasury bill 364- Day Treasury bill 182- Day Treasury bill End 211 End 212 End 213 End 214 215 Q1 Source:

Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 % Market Interest Rates 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) Source:

Financial Sector

Rs.bn Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators(i) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector - 1,975 2,586 2,61 3,73 3,149 3,625 3,427 4,17 3,895 4,686 4,775 4,82 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Loans and Advances Deposits 25 2 15 1 5 Non-Performing Loans of the Banking Sector 6.3 3.4 8.5 5. 5.4 3. 2.1 3.8 3.7 2.2 5.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 2.6 2.7 13 136 17 99 117 191 166 177 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Gross NPL Volume(Rs.bn) Gross NPL Ratio(%) Net NPL Ratio(%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source:

% % Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators(ii) Profitability Indicators Capital Adequacy Ratios 25 2 15 1 4.4 13.4 4.6 4.6 22. 11.8 4.2 4.1 19.8 2.3 3.8 3.5 3.5 16. 16.6 16.4 5 4 3 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 14.5 16.1 16.2 16. 14.1 14.3 14.4 17.6 16.4 14.7 14.9 16.7 14.1 16.3 13.8 18 17 16 15 14 13 5 1.8 1.7 1.7 2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1. 1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Return on Equity Net Interest Margin Return on Assets 1, 12.5 12 5 11 1,571 1,527 1,815 2,269 2,61 2,942 3,483 3,639-1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Risk Weighted Aseets (Rs.bn) Core CAR (%) Total CAR (%) Source:

Banking Density by Province 29 214

Rs.bn Rs.bn Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(i) 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector 853.3 891. 717.6 596.6 489.9 387.9 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Total Deposits of the LFC & SLC Sector 45 414. 418.3 4 35 337.3 3 254.1 25 2 186. 15 146.1 1 5 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Source: LFC: Licensed Finance Companies SLC: Specilised Leasing Companies

% Rs.bn % Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators(ii) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector -2.8 4.1 11.6 34.3 18.9 6.9 7.6 7.4.4 3.2 5.9 4.2 6.6 8.2 13.1 8. 2.1 3. 29 21 211 212 213 214 Net Interest Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 9.1 4.5 Non-Performing Advances 7.9 3.4 5.1 1.9 5. 1.6 6.7 6.9 2.5 2.3 6.3 1.9 17.9 2.9 19.8 23.5 37. 44.3 43.3 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%) Net NPA Ratio (%) 1 8 6 4 2 Source:

2-Jan-11 29-Mar-11 23-Jun-11 17-Sep-11 12-Dec-11 7-Mar-12 1-Jun-12 26-Aug-12 2-Nov-12 14-Feb-13 11-May-13 5-Aug-13 3-Oct-13 24-Jan-14 2-Apr-14 15-Jul-14 9-Oct-14 3-Jan-15 3-Mar-15 Index US$ mn Rs. bn Stock Market Performance Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary Market Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 4 3 2 1-1 -6.3 35.2 178.7 158.3 21.9-2 -171.2 Market Capitalisation (RHS) S&P SL 2 Index (LHS) All Share Price Index (LHS) -3-229.7 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Q1 Source: Colombo Stock Exchange

The sets of graphs above summarise macroeconomic and financial market trends in Sri Lanka. However, these graphs do not provide source data. An extensive set of data is available in the CBSL website. Information for 214 and 215 Q1 are provisional.