ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Transcription

1 ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REVIEW 2014 MALAWI STOCK EXCHANGE OLD RESERVE BANK BUILDING, VICTORIA AVENUE PRIVATE BAG 270 BLANTYRE TEL. (265) FAX. (265) WEBSITE.

2 MALAWI STOCK EXCHANGE LIMITED MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR 1 st JANUARY TO 31 st DECEMBER TRADING SUMMARY The market was bullish and registered a return on investment of 18.79% though lower than % registered in It however, recorded a decrease in both traded volume and value and no trades on the three Government bonds listed on 15 th December, In US Dollar terms, the market registered a return on investment of 8.14% in 2014 compared to 97.26% registered in Key data for the market is as follows: YEAR-TO-DATE INDEX LEVEL AND RETURN INDEX JAN, 2014 DEC %. 14 %. 14 %. 13 %. 13 (MK) ( US$) (MK) (US$) MASI* DSI** FSI*** TOP FIVE MARKET GAINERS IN 2014 COUNTER REAL MPICO TNM NICO NBS CAPITAL GAIN % TOP FIVE TRADED COUNTERS BY VOLUME IN 2014 COUNTER TNM MPICO NICO NBS FMB % TRADED TOP FIVE TRADED COUNTERS BY VALUE IN 2014 COUNTER TNM ILLOVO NICO NBM PCL % TRADED * Malawi All Share Index ** Domestic Share Index *** Foreign Share Index TRADING STATISTICS YR 2014 YR 2013 Traded Value (MK) 10,865,168, ,331,021, Traded Value (US$) 26,670, ,556, Traded Vol. Shares 1,724,271,388 4,409,237,082 No. of Transactions 1,673 1,261 No. of Listed companies Traded Companies Not Traded Companies 0 0 Gainers Decliners 0 2 Unchanged 1 0 Index Close (MASI) Index Close (DSI) Index Close (FSI) ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT

3 2.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 2.1 Trade Performance Analysis The market transacted a total of 1,724,271,388 shares at a total consideration of MK10,865,168, (US$26,670,773.15) in 1,673 trades. In the corresponding period 2013, the market transacted a total of 4,409,237,082 shares at a total consideration of MK13,331,050, (US$34,556,393.34)in 1,261 trades, reflecting a 60.89% decrease in terms of share volume and an 18.50% (22.82% in US Dollar terms) decrease in value terms. Daily average share trades exhibited similar trends as the market registered an average daily volume of 6,952,707 shares compared to 17,779,174 shares traded in 2013, reflecting a 60.89% decrease. The average daily turnover for the year 2014 was MK43,811, (US$107,543.44) compared to MK53,754, (US$139,340.02) for the year 2013, reflecting a decrease of 18.50% (22.82% in US Dollar terms). The highest sales in terms of volume and value was registered in May at a total of 1,494,922,408 shares and a total turnover of MK4,906,161, (US$12,366,167.04). TABLE 1: MARKET TRADING SUMMARY FOR 1 st JAN. 31 st DECEMBER 2014 MONTH DEALS SHARES VALUE MK VALUE U$D Jan ,255, ,412, , Feb ,478, ,751, ,389, Mar ,292, ,333, , Apr ,558, ,918, ,785, May ,494,922,408 4,906,161, ,366, Jun ,010, ,643, ,572, Jul ,543,583 1,095,881, ,742, Aug ,518, ,294, , Sep ,790, ,635, ,143, Oct ,592, ,530, , Nov ,014, ,617, , Dec ,293, ,988, ,298, TOTAL ,673 1,724,271,388 10,865,168, ,670, TOTAL ,261 4,409,237,082 13,331,021, ,556, % CHANGE ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT

4 2.2 Market Capitalisation and Index The market registered a positive return on index throughout all the four quarters in the year under review of 2.01%, 4.96%, 4.56% and 6.07% respectively. The year on year return on Index for year 2014 was 18.79% lower than % registered in The Malawi All Share Index (MASI) increased from points registered in January 2014 to points registered on 31 st December, The price gains registered by 13 counters (FMB, ILLOVO, MPICO, NBM, NBS, NICO, NITL, PCL, REAL, STANDARD Bank, Sunbird Tourism Ltd, TNM and OML) were the major drivers in the increase in the Malawi All Share Index, arising from the increase in both the Domestic and Foreign Share Indices which have registered positive return on indices of 18.99% and 2.94%, respectively. MARKET CAPITALISATION AND INDEX - 1 st JAN. 31 st DECEMBER 2014 Month Ending Mkt. Cap. MKm. Mkt. Cap US$m Mkt. Cap. MKm* Mkt. Cap US$m* MASI 1st QTR 7,179, , , , nd QTR 7,352, , , , rd QTR 7,384, , , , th QTR 7,489, , , , ,489, , , , ,179, , , , ,562, , , % * Excludes non-malawi register Old Mutual plc shares FIG 1: MSE INDICES 1 st JANUARY 31 st DECEMBER 2014 ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT

5 2.3 Market Liquidity The turnover velocity as measured by the ratio of Total Value of Trades to Market Capitalisation (TVT/MCAP*) was 1.70% in 2014 compared to 2.52% recorded in The ratio of Total Value of Trades to Gross Domestic Product (TVT/GDP) recorded a liquidity level of 0.15% in the review period while in 2013 liquidity was at 0.19%. MARKET LIQUIDITY 1 st JANUARY 31 st DECEMBER 2014 MONTH Mkt. Cap/GDP Mkt. Cap/GDP* TVT/GDP TVT/Mkt. Cap* Shares Traded/Shares Ended % % % % In Issue* % 1st QTR nd QTR rd QTR th QTR * Excludes non-malawi register Old Mutual plc shares 2.4 Company Trading Performance Top 5 Gainers MSE CODE COUNTER NAME % GAIN REAL REAL Insurance MPICO MPICO Limited TNM TNM NICO NICO Holdings Limited NBS NBS Bank counters registered a capital gain during the review period. Top 5 Traded Stocks by Volume MSE COUNTER NAME SHARES % OF TOTAL CODE TNM TNM 1,605,964, MPICO MPICO Limited 31,666, NICO NICO Holdings Limited 31,172, NBS NBS Bank 19,480, FMB FMB Bank 13,213, ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT

6 Top 5 Traded Stocks by Value MSE COUNTER NAME MK % OF TOTAL CODE TNM TNM 5,162,924, ILLOVO Illovo Sugar Malawi Limited 2,528,003, NICO NICO Holdings Limited 793,729, NBM National Bank of Malawi 651,001, PCL Press Corporation Limited 454,189, COMPANY TRADING SUMMARY FOR 1 st JAN. 31 st DECEMBER 2014 Company Opening Price Closing Price % Price Change Share Vol. Traded % Traded Value Traded MK BHL , , FMB ,213, ,026, ILLOVO ,616, ,528,003, MPICO ,666, ,043, NBM ,801, ,001, NBS ,480, ,271, NICO ,172, ,729, NITL ,665, ,496, PCL ,243, ,189, REAL ,119, ,375, STANDARDBANK ,002, ,717, SUNBIRD ,250, ,451, TNM ,605,964, ,162,924, OML , ,720, TOTAL 1,724,271, ,865,168, ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT

7 3.0 ECONOMIC POSITION 3.1 The Malawi Kwacha depreciated by 8.97 percent against the US Dollar from its trading position of MK /US$ registered in January to MK /US$ traded in December, The import cover, however, registered an improvement from 2.13 months registered in January to 3.13 months registered in December, The Kwacha continues appreciating in Q after the Central bank changed the Liquidity Requirement Ratio on Foreign Currency Denominated Accounts (FCDA) to Malawi Kwacha equivalent and is expected to appreciate further towards the second quarter once the tobacco auction season starts. The Kwacha moved during the twelve months period from 1 st January to 31 st December, 2014 as follows: - EXCHANGE RATES 1 st JANUARY 31 st DECEMBER 2014 CURRENCY 1 st Jan Sept st Dec Annual % Change MK/US Dollar MK/GBP MK/ZAR MK/EUR Import Cover (In Months) Source: National Bank of Malawi & Reserve Bank of Malawi 3.2 The year on year headline inflation eased by 2.2 points to 23.7% in November, 2014 from 25.9% in January, 2014 on account of an overall decrease in both food and non-food inflation in the review period. The urban and rural inflation rates for the month of November, 2014 were 30.3% and 20.2% respectively. KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Inflation Rate (Nov) Policy Rate Prime Rate TB YIELD 91 Days T-Bill Days T-Bill Days T-Bill Source: National Statistical Office and Reserve Bank of Malawi ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REPORT