QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING.

QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013

OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013

1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING Land Use Population Transport System Economic Development The Environment www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 4

1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 5

1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 6

2. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT PLANNING A participatory approach Components of sustainability Economic development Social equity Environmental quality An integrated approach Measurable targets derived from Vision for future transport development Overall sustainable development Strategy Short term Objectives Review of transport costs and benefits www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 8

2. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT PLANNING Planning steps of developing a SUTP 1. Analysis of current state, problems and shortcomings 2. Definition of a vision, of goals and objectives for future development 3. Development of demand models for calculation of future demand 4. Development of strategies and policies 5. Selection of measures and actions for implementation 6. Calculation of impacts of the different strategies and measures 7. Selection of most suitable strategy / combination of measures for the SUTP 8. Development of an implementation plan 9. Assignment of responsibilities and resources 10. Monitoring and evaluation. www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 9

3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Planning steps of developing a SUTP 1. Analysis of current state, problems and shortcomings 2. Definition of a vision, of goals and objectives for future development 3. Development of demand models for calculation of future demand 4. Development of strategies and policies 5. Selection of measures and actions for implementation 6. Calculation of impacts of the different strategies and measures 7. Selection of most suitable strategy / combination of measures for the SUTP 8. Development of an implementation plan 9. Assignment of responsibilities and resources 10. Monitoring and evaluation. www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 11

3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT The Transport Model used for SUTP development has to be Hot emission integrated, factors [g/veh*km] CO 2 NO X on urban roads Austria, have reference year interfaces 2010 to land use planning, economic development, Priv. car HGV Priv. car HGV be multi-modal representing all relevant transport modes Traffic situation Petrol Diesel Diesel Petrol Diesel Diesel be able to represent all relevant strategies, measures and actions Urban/distributor/50/free flow 152.7 127.4 566.0 0.2140 0.4872 5.5352 be capable of calculating impacts of these measures Urban/distributor/50/heavy 177.9 158.4 656.6 0.2696 0.6490 6.5186 on transport behaviour (mode share, trip lengths) Urban/distributor/50/saturated on transport operation 183.0 (level of 153.6 service, 681.5lack 0.2689 of congestion) 0.5925 6.8063 Urban/distributor/50/stop on economic development & go 315.5 (accessibility) 250.2 1195.9 0.4053 1.0044 12.6918 Urban/collector/50/free on the natural flow environment 146.7 (emission 128.6 561.5 of noise, 0.2153 pollutants, 0.5004 GHG) 5.4298 on the social environment (social inclusion, number of trips) Urban/collector/50/heavy 179.6 159.7 662.3 0.2706 0.6537 6.6099 on financial impacts (vehicle km travelled) Urban/collector/50/saturated 190.7 158.5 699.5 0.2773 0.6078 7.0877 etc. Urban/collector/50/stop & go 315.5 250.2 1195.9 0.4053 1.0044 12.6918 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 12

3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT The Transport Model used for SUTP development has to Be capable of representing future conditions With and Without measures Therefore the model has to be Based on a synthetic approach Representing travel demand based on activities E.g. the classical 4-step approach Trip generation Trip distribution Mode choice assignment www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 13

3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Passenger demand = result of activities at different locations Trip Purpose > Home -> Work Zone 2 S (Work) > Work -> Shopping > Shopping -> Home > Work -> Home Zone 1 S (Shopping) Zone 3 Demand matrix 1 2 3 S 1 100 (Home) Block 2 80 20 3 20 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 14

3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Impacts that can be estimated by the model Quantifiable impacts Traffic flow conditions impacts on other road users Vehicle km travelled impacts on emission of GHG emission of pollutants emission of noise energy consumption accidents (transport safety) Travel times impacts on accessibility social participation Modal split impacts on social participation Unquantifiable impacts or impacts difficult to quantify Barrier effect Visual intrusion Community severance Etc. www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 15

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Measures Road renewable Fuels fossile Measures Rail Measures Inland Waterways Measures Air transport Bio fuels Gase* * Electricity (E-mobility) from renewable sources * *** from non renewable sources Final energy consumption Consumption of primary energy GHG ** ** Emissions www.ptvgroup.com Page 17 * = General objective * = sectoral objective * = recommended objective * Losses from transmission * direct indirect 1

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Basis: National Transport Model PTV Validate Network model National road network model Model of road networks of neighbouring countries with reduced detail About 1.4 M links About 10,000 traffic zones Demand model with 9 trip purposes 21 behavioural groups Different vehicle classes Cars Differnt LGV/ HGV classes Interface for emission calculation www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 18

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Networks Temporal distributions Traffic Volumes 12% 10% 8% 6% Typ A Typ B Typ C Traffic conditions 4% 2% 0% 0 6 12 18 24 Uhrzeit Aggregation Emissions per link Emission factors Situation CO [g/km] HC [g/km] AO_Stop+Go 4,9693 0,6162 AB_Stop+Go 2,3659 0,3697 AB_120 1,0335 0,0507 AB_>120 1,3951 0,0581 AB_120_geb 0,4586 0,0416......... Total Emissions Comparison with base case Impact analysis www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 19

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 20

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS MASTERPLAN MUNICH Base Scenario www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 21

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS MASTERPLAN MUNICH Test Scenario 1 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 22

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH Total vehicle km travelled [mill vehicle km / d] 70,00 60,00 63,24 65,48 61,88 62,67 50,00 51,14 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Analyse Basisszenario Testszenario 1 Testszenario 2 Testszenario 3 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 23

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH Modal split 100% 90% 18 16 16 17 17 80% 8 8 7 8 8 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 32 31 30 42 45 47 33 32 42 43 Fuß Rad ÖV IV 10% 0% Analyse Basisszenario Testszenario 1 Testszenario 2 Testszenario 3 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 24

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH CO 2 emissions Urban Area of Munich 102,00% 100,00% 98,00% 96,00% 96,77% 100,00% 98,91% 96,35% 97,34% 94,00% 92,00% 90,00% 3.942 t/d 4.073 t/d 4.029 t/d 3.925 t/d 3.965 t/d Base Year Basisszenario Testszenario1 Testszenario2 Testszenario3 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 25

4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 26

"Welfare" objectives "Saving" (Preserving) objectives 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE Scenario Analysis V1: Hafenquerspange V11: Reduction of (new port crossing) road B73 V21: PT improvements S1 Preserving natural living conditions of the region - + o S2 Reduction of emission of pollutants and noise by transport + o ++ S3 Improvement of transport safety ++ + + S4 S5 Reduction of barrier effect caused by transport infrastructure + o ++ operation - o + Reduction of energy consumption by transport W1 Improvement of quality of life for residents in the city and its surroundings o o ++ W2 Enhancement of the quality of the location for business and trade ++ - + W3 Integration of urban (social) functions ++ - ++ W4 Increased accessibility of the city and ist surroundongs ++ - ++ W5 Minimisation of investment costs and costs of operation for public sector and for transport users -- - - www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 29

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Existing Internal Trip Distribution www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 31

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment Do-Nothing-Scenario 2021 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 32

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment GP measures 2021 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 33

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Measurable improvements in GP scenario 60000 50000 40000 30000 Do Nothing Do Minimum GP 20000 10000 0 pers-h veh-km www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 34

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS But still problems www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 35

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Proposed scenario DS1 t DS5 13 different scenarios were tested www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 36

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment proposed scenario DS1 t_ds5, 2021 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 37

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Public Transport GP Scenario Legend Link volume (pers/h) Public Transport systems 2021 bus suburban bus trolejbus tram HCRS rail Smartplan Beograd www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 38

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Public Transport Scenarios for additional improvements www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 39

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Impacts of additional improvements of Public Transport 12 10 8 % 6 4 2 scen. A scen. B scen. C scen. D Do nothing 0-2 pers-h veh-km -4 www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 40

5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Impacts of additional improvements of Public Transport www.ptvgroup.com Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 41

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