Results of DEMOCRITOS project The case study of GENOVA

Transcription

1 TRT TRASPORTI E TERRITORIO SRL Results of DEMOCRITOS project The case study of GENOVA Francesca FERMI - Enrico PASTORI Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies Milano

2 Content of the presentation Modellingthe Mobility Credits Scheme Set up of policy scenarios Scenario results in Genova Tests for the city of Milan Conclusion Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

3 Modelling the Mobility Credits Scheme MCP tool (32 zones) LAND USE MODEL Re-localization impacts TRANSPORT GENERATION MODEL MCP MODEL Impacts on transport demand Economic balance estimation Impacts on car fleet composition Expenditure OD matrices by mode Time Car fleet composition Network model (330 zones) TRANSPORT MODEL assignment of OD matrices (by mode) to the network EMISSION MODEL Emissions estimation by link Households budget and local authority revenues Passenger demand (trips suppressed, mode shift, credits purchased) Transport performances (congestion, traffic flows, ) Pollutants emissions and fuel consumption Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

4 Modelling the Mobility Credits Scheme MCP tool(system Dynamics application with VENSIM ) combined with a multimodal network model(genovamtcp application), MCP tool Private motorized mobility(including motorcycles) Private transport demand segmentedby population group: Income level, Employment, Day of the week, Time of the day, Trip purpose, Mode, by OD short-terms reactions: purchase credits, mode shift, shift from peak to off-peak period, suppressing trips medium-long terms reactions: Vehicle fleet composition MCP implementation at the year 2011 (run ) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

5 Mobility Area: Set up of policy scenarios (Genova Municipality) Narrow (City center, 5 zones) Population > ind. Population > ind. (total population > ind.) AM peak hour: AM peak hour: Trips Trips Private mobility 41% (10% moto) Private mobility 30% (9% moto) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

6 Set up of policy scenarios Sustainable Externality Load Rules of Consumptions Externality Load Mobility Budget / pers Base Credit value Wide area Sc. A1 Sc. A2 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard GHG + congestion + pollutants 27 credits 1.15 euro Distance GHG credits euro Sc. A3 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard GHG credits euro Narrow area Sc. B1 Sc. B2 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard GHG + 9 credits 1.15 congestion euro + pollutants Euro Standard GHG + 5 credits 1.15 congestion euro + pollutants Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

7 Set up of policy scenarios Quantification of Mobility Credit Value and Free Mobility Budget Economic Impact of BAU Externality Load(Euro) BAU Mobility Load (trips) Base Credit value (Euro/credit, with 1 credit/trip) Economic Impact of SustainableExternality Load (Euro) TotalCredit Amount in the Area (# credits) Individual Free Mobility Budget (# credits/individual) Subjects (individuals) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

8 Summary Scenario results in Genova Results of scenarios at the year Case study of Genova 0% Private mobility variation Private mobility CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % of trips"forced" to shift on PT -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

9 Scenario results in Genova Private mobility variation (% on total demand) Private mobility variation (car and motorcycle) 5% 0% Time -5% % % trips variation -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

10 Scenario results in Genova Reactions of private passenger demand (affected by the MCP) at 2013 Reactions of private demand at % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 0% 0% 9% 11% 35% 55% Sc A1 30% 27% 37% 23% 38% 34% Sc A2 Sc A3 40% 48% ScB1 narrow 46% 22% 32% ScB2 narrow Free Private trips Private trips shifted to PT Private trips with Extra-Credit purchase Private trips suppressed Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

11 Scenario results in Genova Reactions of private passenger demand (affected by the MCP) at 2020 Reactions of private demand at % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 4% 7% 30% 63% Sc A1 30% 29% 27% 28% 39% 39% Sc A2 4% Sc A3 0% 6% 38% 56% ScB1 narrow 0% 36% 27% 37% ScB2 narrow Free Private trips Private trips shifted to PT Private trips with Extra-Credit purchase Private trips suppressed Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

12 Mode split at 2013 Scenario results in Genova Mode split in a working day at % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 36% 36% 12% 5% 11% 45% 41% Reference Sc A1 36% 16% 20% 8% 36% 7% 32% 29% Sc A2 Sc A3 36% 2% 12% 36% 7% 10% 43% 40% ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Car Moto Bus (shifted) Bus Train Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

13 Mode split at 2020 Scenario results in Genova Mode split in a working day at % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 36% 36% 12% 3% 11% 45% 42% Reference Sc A1 36% 36% 15% 15% 8% 8% 33% 33% Sc A2 Sc A3 36% 36% 1% 6% 11% 10% 44% 41% ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Car Moto Bus (shifted) Bus Train Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

14 Scenario results in Genova Average expenditure for Extra-credits purchase by population group (high/low income) at Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year Euro / pers quarter high low high low high low high low high low Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

15 Scenario results in Genova Local authorityrevenues Local authority revenues Time 10 (Milion Euro/quarter) Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

16 Scenario results in Genova Comparison with pure cordon pricing (narrow MA) (1.15 euro per trips, with lower charge for motorcycle and during weekend) Results of scenarios at the year Case study of Genova 0% Private mobility variation CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % reduction of trips willing to purchase Extra-credits -10% -20% -30% -40% Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year % -60% -70% Euro / pers quarter Sc Pricing narrow ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow 5 0 high low high low high low Sc Pricing narrow ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

17 Mobility Area: Tests for the city of Milan Extensive(Milan Province) Wide (Milan municipality) Population > ind. Population > ind. AM peak hour: AM peak hour: Trips Trips Private mobility 64% (6% moto) Private mobility 44% (9% moto) City of Milan 20 zones Province of Milan 4 zones Nord East South - West Rest of region 4 zones Nord East South/East South/West Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

18 Policy tests/scenarios Tests for definition the city of Milan Scenario / elements Sustainable Externality Load Rules of Consumptions Mobility area Externality Load Sc. A1 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard Wide area GHG + congestion + pollutants Sc. A2 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Distance Wide area GHG Sc. A3 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard Wide area GHG Sc. E1 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard Extensive area GHG + congestion + pollutants Sc. E2 Strong (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance (decreasing), Euro Standard Extensive area GHG + congestion + pollutants Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

19 Summary Tests for the city of Milan Results of scenarios at the year Case study of Milan 0% Private mobility variation Private mobility CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % of trips"forced" to shift on PT -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 Sc E1 extensive Sc E2 extensive Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

20 Tests for the city of Milan Average expenditure for Extra-credits purchase by population group (high/low income) Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year Euro / pers quarter high low high low high low high low high low Sc A1 w ide Sc A2 w ide Sc A3 w ide Sc E1 extensive Sc E2 extensive Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

21 Conclusion Main findings of the Mobility Credit Scheme: Flexible tool with respect to pure road pricing Increased equity and acceptabilitywith respect to pure road pricing Two degrees of freedomto set the policy (intensity and differentiation of the charge and sustainable credit budget threshold) Warning on required improvement of public transport service in extreme scenarios Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano

22 Thanks for your attention! Milano - Via Rutilia 10/ Tel Fax Bruxelles - Rue Vilain XIIII, 5 B-1050 Tel/fax: [email protected] Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano