Los Angeles County s Goods Movement Industry California League of Cities March 5, 2015 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC
Outline U.S./California Economies Los Angeles County Goods Movement & Trade Trends Conclusion/Outlook
US/California Economies
Highlights U.S. Economy - accelerating Labor market expansion Oil - gift World economy struggling California outpacing US job gains
CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly 15.0% Unemployment Rate U.S. CA 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: US BLS, CA EDD
California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. 4.0% YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted 3.0% US CA 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: US BLS, CA EDD Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
U.S. Economic Forecast Real GDP - % Chg. Annual 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 2.3% Forecast Source: LAEDC
Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer Sector Business Sector Government International Trade
Exports, Imports of Goods $ in Trillions Total U.S. Goods Trade Goods Trade as % of GDP 3.0 Exports (left axis) 30% 2.5 2.0 18.8% Imports (left axis) 23.4% Trade % of GDP (right axis) 18.4% 24.1% 23.2% 25% 20% 1.5 15% 1.0 10% 0.5 5% 0.0 Source: BEA 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0%
Los Angeles County Goods Movement/Trade Trends
L.A. County Trans/Warehousing & Wholesale Employment 440,000 390,000 Dec 2014 YTY: Trans/Warehousing +4,100 jobs, +2.6% Wholesaling -100 jobs, -0.1% 340,000 290,000 240,000 190,000 140,000 90,000 40,000 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
International Trade-Related Employment in L.A. Five-County Area Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County 158,542 7,709 44,729 38,988 Source: LAEDC Cluster Analysis Project 2011
Los Angeles County - Gateway to America s Largest Consumer Market Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Los Angeles County* Orange County Riverside County San Bernardino County Ventura County Population: 18.06 Million California Population: 37.7 Million Southern California Los Angeles Metro Area + San Diego County Population: 21.2 Million * If LA County were a state, it would be larger than 43 other states in US. Source: CA Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit
Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs Dec 2014 YTD: +3.8% 11.8 13.1 14.2 15.8 15.7 14.3 11.8 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC
Millions of TEUs 10 International Container Traffic at Nation s Major Ports New York Los Angeles Long Beach Savannah Oakland 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Port Statistical Releases
Ports of LA/LB As Share of Top 10 Ports 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 45.6% 44.5% 44.6% 44.8% 44.1% 42.8% 42.6% 42.7% 41.8% 42.1% 41.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Port Statistical Releases, Compiled by LAEDC
Value of International Trade at Nation s Leading Customs Districts $500 $400 Billions of U.S.$ Los Angeles New York Laredo Houston Detroit LACD 2014: $416.6 B 414.8 $300 $200 $100 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census
LACD Top Import Sources, 2013 Billions of U.S.$ 133.2 137.7 2012 2013 31.9 28.3 13.5 12.4 8.0 9.6 9.1 8.7 China* Japan Korea, South Vietnam Taiwan Source: USA Trade Online
LACD Top Export Destinations, 2013 Billions of U.S.$ 34.1 35.4 2012 2013 16.0 15.2 10.6 11.1 8.4 7.8 6.5 7.1 China* Japan Korea, South Australia Taiwan Source: USA Trade Online
2013 Imports Entering the L.A.C.D. (Share of Total) Toys, Games, Sports Equipment, 3.0% Furniture, Bedding, Lamps, 3.8% Plastics, Plastic Items, 2.6% Other, 26.6% Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 19.1% Footwear, Parts, 3.9% Apparel, Accessories, (Not Knit or Crochet), 3.9% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Electronic Parts, 17.2% Apparel, Accessories (Knit or Crochet), Refined Oil Products, 5.0% Natural Gas, 5.7% Source: USA Trade Online Motor Vehicles, Parts, 9.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
2013 Exports Through The L.A.C.D. Other, 37.8% (Share of Total) Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances, Parts, 13.9% Electrical Equipment, TVs, Elecontric Parts, 10.8% Aircraft, Spacecraft, Parts, 7.8% Meat and Meat Products, 2.2% Fruits and Nuts, 2.4% Miscellaneous Chemical Products, 2.9% Source: USA Trade Online Motor Vehicles, Parts, 4.8% Natural Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, 5.2% Medical, Surgical, Dental Instruments, 7.0% Plastics, Items Made of Plastic, 5.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Industrial Vacancy Rates Southern California 16.0 Percent vacant, quarterly averages 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1q09 1q10 1q11 1q12 1q13 1q14 Source: Cushman and Wakefield Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura
Conclusion
Southern California Outlook 2014-15 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% Los Angeles County Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs 2013 2014 2015 4.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC
Challenges & Opportunities CHALLENGES Port Competition Freeway Congestion Limited Industrial Space Labor-Automation Tradeoff Port-Related Pollution OPPORTUNTIES Big Ship Ready, Efficient Alameda Corridor Think Regional IE Answer? Global Leaders in Adoption of Pollution Mitigation Efforts & Technology Growth of Trade US & Global!!!
www.laedc.org 10 th Annual LAEDC-WTC International Trade Outlook Wednesday, May 20, 2015 8 am 11 am Long Beach http://laedc.org/international-trade-outlook/
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