Broadband Directions and Innovations The consumer driven broadband world
Discussion Points Consumer Broadband Dynamics Driving Media Mobility Broadband Innovations
Consumer Broadband Dynamics NBC Direct High-Definition and High-Definition On-Demand Digital Cinema Ultra-HD ABC Full Episode Player 50Mb+ Service Packages Streaming Content (DS and US) Multi-Player Gaming Key Driver: Increased Concurrency Rates (VOD and Internet)
Nielsen s Law Jakob Nielsen s Focus: Usability of the web Led to development of Neilsons law BW expands 7.5x after 5 years or 57x after 10 Years Neilsen understands: Moore s law cannot be applied to bandwidth Mass market bandwidth usage lags high-end [users] by 2-3 years CAGR Compound over 10 Years Neilsen Bandwidth 50% 57x Moore Computing 60% 100X Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html
Nielsen s Law Applying Nielsen s Law To Broadband Usage Forecasts Historical UK broadband Availability Rate Samples Map Directly to Nielsen's law 1Gig 100Mb 10Mb 1Mb 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 100 Kb 10 Kb Actual Trend 1 Kb Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html
Market and Technology Convergence At Home Mobile / Wireless Internet Video DBS MSOs Consumer CE Services Data Muni WiFi Voice Telcos Cellular Providers VoIP
Media Mobility Mainstream Cutting Edge Tomorrow Bundles Services Blended Services Personalized Content on Demand Converged Platform Content as a Service Fixed Mobile Ian s Media Fixed Voice Internet Internet on TV Social TV Susan s Media Mobile TV Peter s Media Video Wireless Julia s Media
Broadband Innovations (Transition slide. Will be removed)
Broadband Innovations Extending Technology Value A Reference Regional Operations Center Access Network Communities Served Amplified PON IP STB 60+ km s planned communities Services EMS/NMS s IP STB GPON OLT planned communities Network Cable PON planned communities IP STB BSS / OSS Mgmt. Access N N + X PON s residential rebuild RF STB Purpose Built Solutions Sharing Common Foundations Remote OLT @ Node
Conclusion (Transition slide. Will be removed)
Summary Considerations When do I invest? Considerations: Legacy architectures, service mix, competition, opportunity cost Am I positioned to compete in a world of converging markets and services? Considerations: Maintaining differentiation, rapid introduction of new services, offensive vs. defensive positions and strategies How will my technology investments allow for flexibility as my business model evolves Considerations: New service opportunities, emerging competition, evolving consumer behaviors
Thank You