Broadband Access in the BT Fixed Network extract of BCS Essex presentation, 20 March Dr Elspeth MacFadyen, Programme Director BT Group CTO

Transcription

1 Broadband Access in the BT Fixed Network extract of BCS Essex presentation, 20 March 2007 Dr Elspeth MacFadyen, Programme Director BT Group CTO

2 What I ll be talking about General context Access network factors affecting DSL performance DSL Max ( up to 8Mb/s ) ADSL2+ Options for meeting future demand for bandwidth Next Generation Access

3 Broadband UK: affordable, available and attractive 99.6% broadband availability, over 12 million subscribers Top of G8, better than mains water 99%+ commercially funded One of the lowest prices in the world Infrastructure competition: LLU, cable and/or wireless in over 70% of the country Even wider set of technologies for broadcast applications (esp. TV) Hundreds of nationwide service providers with a number of wholesale providers Service and commercial innovation E.g., IP TV, mobile over broadband, broadband on the move, IP telephony, hybrid platforms... Bundles and packages with wireless, landlines, software as a service

4 The access network some numbers Around 30,000 people all BT s field operations 200,000 manholes 2 million km optical fibre 3.6 million customer visits per year 10.5 million broadband connections 14 million jobs a year 30 million customer lines 120 million km copper access 300 million calls a day Around 8 billion assets More than 4 billion projected revenues

5 Where is the last mile bandwidth an issue? What else drives customer experience? QoS Service level Best Effort 10 kbps VoIP High u/s BW demand (Highest for VC) Gaming Internet Access applications Video telephony Video Conferencing Video-ondemand HDTV Business 100 kbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps??? Internet Access Best Effort ( , online gambling etc) On-line Gaming PC, Console P2P VoIP Communications (BE PC-PC, off-net PSTN quality) Video-Communications (web-cab to TV, Video calls, Conference) TV & Video VoD download/streamed, SDTV, HDTV Business applications Software as a service, IP- Centrex, VPN Access (d/s) Bandwidth Example applications requiring different transmission rates & Quality of Service

6 Lines and DSL performance

7 a picture Equivalent to 3.25 km 0.5mm typical 420 m typical 25 m typical DP Exchange Cabinet Customer

8 DSL performance physics and its implications The performance of DSL on any given line in the access network is a function of the signal to noise ratio at the end of that line: Signal is affected by the length, quality and dimensions of the copper cable, and by the ANFP (Access Network Frequency Plan) Noise can come from network crosstalk (directly related to the fill level of the copper cables in use) sources in the home or premises (including home wiring) sources in the environment e.g. RFI Geographic coverage achieved at any given speed also depends on the topology of the access network the statistical distribution of line lengths These factors are identical for anyone operating DSL on BT s access network Service at 512kb/s offered nearly everywhere since Sept 2004 but there remain some problem lines

9 Why line length is important possible transmission rate loop length Possible transmission rate decreases with increasing loop length Effect is more dramatic at higher frequencies Need to reserve and protect lowest frequencies for longest loops

10 DSL Max

11 DSL Max Line Rates IPstream Downstream Upstream Max 288 Kbps to 8128 Kbps 64 Kbps to 448 Kbps Max Premium 288 Kbps to 8128 Kbps 64 Kbps to 832 Kbps

12 Estimated DSL Max speed distribution Based on line checker data and estimates only Line rate Percentage of PSTN lines 0.5Mb 98% 1Mb 96% 2Mb 93% 3Mb 89% 4Mb 78% 5Mb 63% 6Mb 42% >or =6.5Mb 25%

13 Network testing ADSL2+

14 Towards a market-led strategy

15 Ample bandwidth for the vast majority today Bandwidth and price tend to dominate marketing messages simple to understand and compare, or is it? Typical customer uses much less than last mile capacity Average bandwidth usage <30 kbit/s Peak individual throughput much more constrained by internet and servers, peak time of day also by backhaul and core networks Some intensive use(r)s: streaming SDTV throughput >200 MB/hour, peer-to-peer file transfer an effectively unlimited consumer Current evidence shows that small segments (<10%) would consider to pay premium for bandwidth ( 5/month) for bandwidth However BT aware of growing public debate and is keen to engage with end customers, Ofcom, CPs and other stakeholders e.g. BSG, content industry

16 There are unconstrained consumption scenarios where bandwidth demand exceeds the current capabilities Unconstrained Consumption Scenario: Assumes that there are no constraints on bandwidth availability and bandwidth is available at no incremental cost to end-users Bandwidth Requirements Consumer - Couple with no children Consumer - Family Corporate - Small Branch Upstream ~5 Mbit/s ~9 Mbit/s ~20 Mbit/s Downstream ~30 Mbit/s ~44 Mbit/s ~32 Mbit/s Key Drivers Take-up of new real time applications Take-up of new computing architectures IP-HDTV 4/3 concurrent sessions Video Calling Adoption of thin client architectures HD Video Conferencing IP-CCTV Video Calling Source: based on independent research carried out for BT by Analysys but to date there is no identified mass market demand for a paid for high speed service and alternative HDTV platforms are more cost-effective British Telecommunications plc HD: High Definition; IP-HDTV: Internet Protocol High Definition Television; IP-CCTV: Internet Protocol Closed-Circuit Television

17 There are two main access fibre deployment options FTTC The fibre connection goes to a powered cabinet in the street. The final connection to the premises is on copper Fibre Copper FTTP The fibre connection goes all the way from the main network to the premises Memo: Copper ADSL Copper from the exchange to the premises British Telecommunications plc FTTC: Fibre to the Cabinet; FTTP: Fibre to the Premises; ADSL: Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line

18 Summary of technology options Bandwidth (Mbit/s)[1] DownStream (Headline) DownStream (Median) UpStream (Headline) Upstream (Median) Timeline ADSL Today s technology ADSL2+ (MSAN) CN delivers this ADSL2+ (Cabinet) Future technology may have use for reach extension VDSL2 (Cabinet) c c24 9 Future technology - being considered by BT FTTP/GPON c75 [2] N/A c37.5 [3] N/A Applicable to greenfield sites end 2008 Notes: [1] Based on 25% cable fill. If cable fill increases then bandwidths decline [2] 2.4G sharable across 32 end users [3] 1.2G sharable across 32 end users Mbit/s: Mega bit per second; ADSL: Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line; ADSL2+: Offers higher British Telecommunications plc downstream rate and upstream performance than ADSL and ADSL2; MSAN: Multi-Service Access Node; VDSL2: Very high speed Digital Subscriber Line 2, an enhancement to VDSL; FTTP: Fibre to the Premises

19 Next Generation Access

20 What is happening elsewhere? Supportive Regulatory & Government Environment Netherlands FTTC Sun setting exchange based LLU France FTTP Iliad - Cheap / free access to duct Other Specific factors High broadband retail share Capital release from sale of exchange buildings Low cost deployment due to focus on multi-dwelling units Limited or no existing infrastructure USA FTTP/ FTTC Regulatory forbearance Rural subsidy Step change in competitiveness vs. cable Long loop lengths Germany FTTC Regulatory holiday Step change in competitiveness vs. single play cable High broadband retail share Korea FTTB National industrial policy Low cost deployment - high housing density High payments for entertainment and social services Japan FTTB National industrial policy Tax incentives, cheap finance Low cost deployment- high housing density and overhead deployment Capital investment in pre-provisioning British Telecommunications plc FTTC: Fibre to the Cabinet; FTTP: Fibre to the Premises; FTTB: Fibre to the Building; LLU: Local Loop Unbundling

21 There is no economic case for replacing the copper access infrastructure with fibre solely on cost grounds Capex costs for greenfield sites are similar for fibre and copper and fibre offers scope for much lower maintenance costs. So it makes economic sense to use fibre (FTTP) for large greenfield sites But maintenance cost savings are insufficient to justify BT replacing existing copper with fibre. High definition television may be a future driver for higher bandwidths but hybrid technologies (satellite, freeview) are much more economic for broadcast. No revenue model has yet emerged for recovering the costs of fibre through charging for HDTV services. British Telecommunications plc

22 BT position on NGA strategy BT wants to respond to real demand in a commercially and technically innovative way that enables effective downstream competition everywhere. From 2008 BT will provide networks based on fibre to the premises (FTTP) for selected major greenfield housing developments, and businesses in such locations. Where BT builds fibre access networks for its own use it will make available equivalent wholesale services. BT does not seek a regulatory holiday. Continued exploration of challenges and uncertainties eg capex costs, demand, business models, applications, technology, public funding. British Telecommunications plc

23 Tony Ealden, FTTP Ebbsfleet. Slide 2 Ebbsfleet Valley a vibrant, cosmopolitan development in the heart of Kent Thameside Developed by Land Securities Over 1,000 acres the business core of up to 6 million sq ft will create around 25,000 new jobs over the coming 20 years 3 million sq ft of retail, leisure and community facilities 9,600 new homes and 440 acres of new parks and open spaces and lakes. British Telecommunications plc will begin at Springhead, a joint venture residential scheme with Countryside Properties of up to 600 new homes with supporting community facilities including a school, parks and place of worship

24 Questions?