Current State and Outlook of the Advertising Business. Prepared by Commercials Research Department of the Screen Actors Guild May 2006

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Amelia Cobb
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1 Current State and Outlook of the Advertising Business Prepared by Commercials Research Department of the Screen Actors Guild May

2 Traditional Television Advertising in 2005 Death of the 30 Second Spot? Paradigm Shift? Television Revolution? 2

3 Traditional Media: Recent Performance & Forecasts Network/Class A Cable Wild Spot Spanish Language 3

4 Statistics: Media Spending National Media Spend $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 illions In B $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $ NETWORK TV SPOT TV SPANISH LANGUAGE CABLE TV SYNDICATION 4

5 Statistics: Average Commercial Length econds S NETWORK TV SPOT TV SPANISH LANGUAGE CABLE TV SYNDICATION 5

6 Statistics: Usage Data Class A Uses Per Cycle Average (Mean) Median 6

7 Statistics: Usage Data Wild Spot Units Per Cycle Wild Spot Units

00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Wild

8 1,200 Statistics: Usage Data Average Cable Units Per Cycle 1,000 er Cycle Units P

9 Statistics: Usage Data 2003 Cable Unit Breakdown mmercials Number of Co Cable Commercials Under 2000 Limit Cable Commercials Hitting 2000 Limit 9

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Cable

10 Statistics: Principal Performer Earnings under the SAG Commercials Contract in $ Millions

11 Statistics: Member Earnings Session and Holding Fees (Talent Partners Data) llions In Mi $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Scale Session Earnings Scale Holding Fees 11

$60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

12 Statistics: Member Earnings Session Versus Residuals $700 $600 illions In M $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Total Scale Session & Holdings Total Scale Residuals 12 (Talent Partners Data)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Scale Session

13 llions In Mi $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Statistics: Member Earnings Class A Residuals (Talent Partners Data) 13

Earnings Class A Residuals 1998 1999 2000

14 Statistics: Member Earnings Wild Spot Residuals $45 $40 $35 illions In M $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ (Talent Partners Data) 14

15 Statistics: Member Earnings Cable (English Only) $120 $100 In Millions $80 $60 $40 $20 $ (Talent Partners Data) 15

16 Statistics: Member Earnings Residuals Comparison $120 $100 illions In M $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Cable Class A Wild Spot 16 (Talent Partners Data)

$40 $20 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

17 Statistics: Member Earnings Spanish Language Residuals (Domestic) $7,000 $6,000 ands In Thous $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Spanish Network (alone) Spanish Cable Spanish Network & Spot Spanish Wildspot (alone) 17 (Talent Partners Data)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Spanish Network (alone) Spanish

18 Statistics: Member Earnings Internet $12 $10 llions In Mi $8 $6 $4 $2 $ (Talent Partners Data) 18

19 illions In M $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Statistics: : Member Earnings Foreign Use (Talent Partners Data) English Language Spanish Language 19

20 Member Earnings: Geographic Breakdown 700 illions Earnings in M Hollywood NY Branches 20

21 Ratio Analysis Total Earnings as % of Media Spend 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%

22 Average Payout per Principal: 45 Class A Uses vs. Wildspot (3 Major Markets Additional Units) $3, $3, $2, $2, $1, $1, $ $ Class A 45 Uses $3, $3, $3, WS Table E $2, $2, $2,

23 Average Residual Earnings Per Commercial Per Cycle for One On-Camera Principal * (for an average English language commercial that is run on Class A, Cable, and Wild Spot) Class A $3, Cable $1, Wild Spot $1, Internet $ Subtotal $7, Note: this average is not indicative of the payout to performers in all SAG covered commercials, only for those that are used on Class A, Cable and Wild Spot within a 13-week cycle. 23

24 Economic Data IRS Cost of Living Adjustments % % % % 2006 (projected) 3.80% Compounded = 9.73% 24

25 Category Trends Media Spending On Average Network ad spending has been increasing at an average rate of 3.4% annually since Wild Spot ad spending has been increasing at an average rate of 2.6% annually since Cable ad spending has been increasing at an average rate of 9.5% annually since

26 Category Trends Earnings Recent Decline in Network and Wild Spot Strong Increase in Cable and Internet 26

27 Forecast: Traditional Media Short Term Spending Forecasts 2006 Growth in Spending Network: 1-4% Wild Spot: 1% 2% Cable: 6-11% Spanish Language: 10-20% 2007 Growth in Spending Network: 2-4% Wild Spot: Flat to 1% Cable: 5-8% Spanish Language: 8-14% 27

28 Forecast: Traditional Media Earnings Growth: Cable Class A Wild Spot Spanish Language 28

29 How is New Media Impacting Member Earnings and the Commercials Contract? 29

30 What is the relationship between emerging media advertising and traditional television advertising? 30

31 What do Advertisers Want from Advertising? Ability to Reach Consumers Ability to Target Specific Customers Accountability 31

32 Impact of New Media Digital Video Recording (DVR) and Potential Commercial Skipping Video on Demand (VOD) Internet and ipod The Convergence of TV and the Internet Targeted Advertising 32

33 Some of the New Ways New Media Has Enabled Advertisers to Reach Consumers are: Streaming Internet Commercials Downloadable (VOD) Internet Commercials (ipod) VOD Cable/Satellite Commercials Program TV Watched on a TV set, Delivered Through the Internet Cell Phone Broadcasting Cell Phone Downloads (mobisodes) Viral/ Commercials Interstitials Digital Video Kiosks/Billboards 33

34 Impact of New Media 2005 National Media Spend New Media Television 34

35 DVR and Time Shifted Viewing In 2005, DVR household penetration was estimated at 10% Forecast to grow to 36-50% by 2009 Varying estimates about how they are used Now being factored into Nielsen ratings 35

36 Video On Demand (VOD) Via cable, satellite, Internet, ipod, etc Five Models Acquisition fee and no commercials (itunes) Subscription fee and no commercials (CNN Internet) Free with commercials (NBA Video Website) Per-use discounted fee with commercials (CBS On- Demand) Free with no commercials (for promotional purposes) (Fox Prison Break Promo) 36

37 Internet and ipod Made for TV content now available digitally through the Internet for viewing on the computer, ipod, or even TV. Two forms: Broadcast (webcast/podcast) On-Demand (the various methods described on previous page) 37

38 Convergence of TV and Internet Video On Demand Broadband Networks Advancement of Set-Top Boxes 38

39 Cell Phone Commercials 39

40 Targeted Advertising 40

41 Video Games 41

42 Realistic Implications for the Traditional Spot Not going away any time soon However, advertisers are finding alternatives: Branded Entertainment Product Placement Sponsored Broadcasts 42

43 The Current Contract vs. New Viewing Models 43

44 Other Potential Threats to the Current Contract Structure 44

45 Regular Updates 45

46 Questions? 46

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